** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **

EdsonNascimento

The Juggler said:

pjl44 said:

EdsonNascimento said:

Gern Blansten said:

53/47 Harris...I can live with that

Sorry to tell you but National polls always lean Dem for whatever reason (probably b/c they're the ones that care more to participate). I think (didn't re-look it up), but Biden was ahead 8 points in polls and won by 4.  In addition. Dems need to win by more than 3 and probably be ahead by like 7 in polls to win b/c they have "wasted" votes in big cities (unless there's some unusual distribution). Winning NYC, Chitown and LA by 5 million each doesn't change the outcomes of those states, but makes the Nat'l overall skew.

So, you really shouldn't be happy with 2.3. Trump wins easily if that's the actual polling at this time.

That's not a poll. The 53% is a probability.

Lol...right.

Next he will tell you Silver was wrong in 2016...even though he was much closer than most. 

Hey, I love Nate Silver.  If I was trusting any of these projections, he's the one I'd trust.  538 no longer belongs to him. HE sold but, but brilliantly kept access to the models. He's critiqued the 538 models that have strayed b/c they don't have his updates.  

So, Nate Silver does have his own projection that's not longer called 538.  That's right - a corporation paid him 10s of millions of dollars for a projection that was only good the moment he gave it to them. From there, you need the right person to adjust it.  

And I'm sure he'll say it's close to 50/50 also.  But, in the end, none of that is relevant.  I'm just trying to guid you to the most important number in the quote - the 2.3 point polling advantage. That's most likely not enough for Harris to win as the real election will skew against that number and Dems always need more votes to win b/c of the cities producing votes that don't effect the electoral college.

So, keep arguing. I'm not saying who's gonna win.  I'm just trying to point out that those probabilities (especially a basically 50/50 for an incumbent should not let you sleep well at night). But, you keep doing you.

HughFreakingDillon

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

my question re: her name. What about mispronouncing her name inherently means you are being racist? I don't really get the connection between the 80's wrestler pronunciation and racism. 

It just seems demeaning and disrespectful to me.

The racism comes into play, I guess, because it's usually a white person being ignorant and not bothering to care enough about a brown person to learn their different sounding name.

I know nothing about the wrestler. Sorry! 

disrespectful, sure, but why racist? if people mispronounced my name I wouldn't automatically jump to them hating British people

It depends on where it is coming from...maybe stemming from the "Barack HUSSEIN Obama" crap that the GOP still loves to use. Not necessarily racist on its face but its a dog whistle.

meh. I see those differently. In that case, Trump is obviously trying to tie Obama to Saddam/terrorism in general. Simply putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable is a stretch, at best, unless, as others have mentioned, it's intentional. But then to me that's still just disrespectful, not racist. 

pjl44

Lol

mickeyrat

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/C-_IFZQg_IV/?xmt=AQGzDemKxu_5co_0m3pzA4-f1uLe4mxHJjPdF02Nw_FIPw

Halifax2TheMax

EdsonNascimento said:

The Juggler said:

pjl44 said:

EdsonNascimento said:

Gern Blansten said:

53/47 Harris...I can live with that

Sorry to tell you but National polls always lean Dem for whatever reason (probably b/c they're the ones that care more to participate). I think (didn't re-look it up), but Biden was ahead 8 points in polls and won by 4.  In addition. Dems need to win by more than 3 and probably be ahead by like 7 in polls to win b/c they have "wasted" votes in big cities (unless there's some unusual distribution). Winning NYC, Chitown and LA by 5 million each doesn't change the outcomes of those states, but makes the Nat'l overall skew.

So, you really shouldn't be happy with 2.3. Trump wins easily if that's the actual polling at this time.

That's not a poll. The 53% is a probability.

Lol...right.

Next he will tell you Silver was wrong in 2016...even though he was much closer than most. 

Hey, I love Nate Silver.  If I was trusting any of these projections, he's the one I'd trust.  538 no longer belongs to him. HE sold but, but brilliantly kept access to the models. He's critiqued the 538 models that have strayed b/c they don't have his updates.  

So, Nate Silver does have his own projection that's not longer called 538.  That's right - a corporation paid him 10s of millions of dollars for a projection that was only good the moment he gave it to them. From there, you need the right person to adjust it.  

And I'm sure he'll say it's close to 50/50 also.  But, in the end, none of that is relevant.  I'm just trying to guid you to the most important number in the quote - the 2.3 point polling advantage. That's most likely not enough for Harris to win as the real election will skew against that number and Dems always need more votes to win b/c of the cities producing votes that don't effect the electoral college.

So, keep arguing. I'm not saying who's gonna win.  I'm just trying to point out that those probabilities (especially a basically 50/50 for an incumbent should not let you sleep well at night). But, you keep doing you.

Agreed. 2.3 is well within the margin of error and the popular vote totals will be unevenly distributed. I think POOTWH will win for this and other factors I haven’t quite clearly digested and articulated. It’s not going to be one factor, but a combination. ‘Murica is in for some dark days, very dark days.

mickeyrat

oprah....

https://www.threads.net/@lorion70/post/C-_QQyiyNJJ/?xmt=AQGzv2GBR7tukbrwrqai0aEVkQNiaupiNEgcCV4SrBipig

Go Beavers

njhaley1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

my question re: her name. What about mispronouncing her name inherently means you are being racist? I don't really get the connection between the 80's wrestler pronunciation and racism. 

It just seems demeaning and disrespectful to me.

The racism comes into play, I guess, because it's usually a white person being ignorant and not bothering to care enough about a brown person to learn their different sounding name.

I know nothing about the wrestler. Sorry! 

disrespectful, sure, but why racist? if people mispronounced my name I wouldn't automatically jump to them hating British people

I wouldn't say racist, other than it being a somewhat unusual name for white America.  See also Key and Peele's "A-aron" skit.

But also: https://www.vogue.com/article/kamala-trump-pronunciation

I read this article recently where a linguist talks about her style of speech and how culture affects
pronunciation in general. I found it interesting and it seemed timely to drop the link here. 

https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/08/06/a-uc-berkeley-linguist-explores-what-kamala-harriss-voice-and-speech-reveal-about-her-identity/

teskeinc

Kamala the Ugandan Headhunter. He was from Mississippi tho. Was a great character in the WWF.

teskeinc

Liberals love to cry racist, the same way they love calling Republicans MAGA. You know who you are. 

Problem is over the last several years, they use it so often to things that aren’t really racist, it loses the real meaning and people just disregard it as another virtue signaler. Like the boy who cried wolf.

Perfect example on this forum, someone wants to make themselves feel virtuous because Bill Clinton mispronounced Kamalas name. It’s not racist, even if he did it intentionally. He’s not oppressing anyone, he wasn’t discriminating against anyone and wasn’t projecting superiority over her either. 

mickeyrat

video on the jobs revision.. perspective is a hellava thing...

https://www.threads.net/@vincedmonroy/post/C-_UsthvkYQ/?xmt=AQGzwCsLttzrbqHo1PeckHbC5USlx59DYCY3CRoMCyQFrQ

Tim Simmons

teskeinc said:

Problem is over the last several years, they use it so often to things that aren’t really racist, it loses the real meaning and people just disregard it as another virtue signaler. Like the boy who cried wolf.

Exactly. Like calling people Communists. Or Pedophiles. 

Tim Simmons

teskeinc said:

 It’s not racist, even if he did it intentionally. 

If you do it intentionally, you're trying to be a dick for some reason and its worth drilling down into why. 

Tim Simmons

Its almost like there are dopes on both sides who just level attacks at the other without any real critical thinking. Just posting pejoratives, making broad blanket accusations, just trying to go toe to toe with nastiness without considering if you truly are contributing to the dialog or the noise.  

mickeyrat

Rep Lieu,

https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/C-_YRiQBzib/?xmt=AQGzD8JPl8E-_ir5ZZMR_WCr0aMto47ocAQ3Mz1IBD10WA

Tim Simmons

bottom line. sometimes things are racist and people are being racist. Sometimes people are dopes or misspeak. You can say sorry and try to do better. Yes, its a disservice to rooting out real racism to just level accusations at people without the full story or context or consideration. But also, there are real fucking assholes out there who want to stir shit up, and its worth considering, Why are people on edge about these sort of people.  

teskeinc

Tim Simmons said:

teskeinc said:

 It’s not racist, even if he did it intentionally. 

If you do it intentionally, you're trying to be a dick for some reason and its worth drilling down into why. 

It’s kind of like here if you say anything demeaning about Kamala it’s labeled misogynist or sexist. People are soft now. If you grew up in the 70s or 80s you were probably called every name in the book. Friends called each other every name in the book and we just laughed and gave it right back. We ushered in the era of everyone gets a trophy, safe spaces and snowflakes and if you say anything about anyone you’re automatically a racist.

josevolution

teskeinc said:

Kamala the Ugandan Headhunter. He was from Mississippi tho. Was a great character in the WWF.

lol yeah ok wrestling the total fake sport 😂😂

mickeyrat

teskeinc said:

Tim Simmons said:

teskeinc said:

 It’s not racist, even if he did it intentionally. 

If you do it intentionally, you're trying to be a dick for some reason and its worth drilling down into why. 

It’s kind of like here if you say anything demeaning about Kamala it’s labeled misogynist or sexist. People are soft now. If you grew up in the 70s or 80s you were probably called every name in the book. Friends called each other every name in the book and we just laughed and gave it right back. We ushered in the era of everyone gets a trophy, safe spaces and snowflakes and if you say anything about anyone you’re automatically a racist.

key aspect here is among friends. talked shit with others , fights occured.

josevolution

teskeinc said:

Tim Simmons said:

teskeinc said:

 It’s not racist, even if he did it intentionally. 

If you do it intentionally, you're trying to be a dick for some reason and its worth drilling down into why. 

It’s kind of like here if you say anything demeaning about Kamala it’s labeled misogynist or sexist. People are soft now. If you grew up in the 70s or 80s you were probably called every name in the book. Friends called each other every name in the book and we just laughed and gave it right back. We ushered in the era of everyone gets a trophy, safe spaces and snowflakes and if you say anything about anyone you’re automatically a racist.

So that makes it ok to be an asshole 😂😂 

mickeyrat