** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **

mickeyrat

The Juggler

A fresh batch of close polls released Oct. 10 has Democrats worried and sent Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds of victory sliding to their lowest point yet in prediction markets for the Electoral College. Those polls — most notably from Emerson College, Marist College and The New York Times, three of the most prolific pollsters in America — show Harris and former President Donald Trump tied in the northern battlegrounds and Harris trailing heavily in Florida. But our forecast came to a different conclusion: Currently, our model gives Harris a 55 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes, up from the brink of 50-50 on the evening of Oct. 9.

The difference boils down to one thing: trends, not levels. If you compare Harris’s margin over Trump in polls released Oct. 10 to the results of previous polls by the same pollsters in the same places, Harris’s margin has increased by an average of 0.4 percentage points. And according to our election model, which looks at differences in results among all pollsters to identify whether a firm leans to the left or the right, the polls from Emerson in particular have tended to underestimate Harris compared to polls with the same methodology (a mix of robocalls and online interviews) in the same geographies. This means our starting point when looking at these new polls is that Harris is doing better than they indicate, by about a point on vote margin, and that she is either holding steady or gaining ground.

But The New York Times/Siena College poll in Florida should worry Democrats. It single-handedly moved the 538 poll average in the state from Trump+4 to Trump +5, and could indicate broader weakness of pollsters to sample Republican voters properly. However, The Times’s surveys in Texas and Montana came in right on target with our forecast, prompting our model to think the race is more of the same than worth a dramatic shift in estimates. So this is a good place to remind you: More of the same in forecasting today is still forecasting a toss-up race.

Halifax2TheMax

For those “free thinkers” out there, whoever and wherever you may be. From Letter From An American:

The Atlantic nodded to the free thought on which the magazine was founded in 1857 when it came out strongly for Harris today. It is endorsing Harris, it said, because she “respects the law and the Constitution. She believes in the freedom, equality, and dignity of all Americans. She’s untainted by corruption, let alone a felony record or a history of sexual assault. She doesn’t embarrass her compatriots with her language and behavior, or pit them against one another. She doesn’t curry favor with dictators. She won’t abuse the power of the highest office in order to keep it. She believes in democracy. These, and not any specific policy positions, are the reasons The Atlantic is endorsing her.”

Halifax2TheMax

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

brianlux

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those “free thinkers” out there, whoever and wherever you may be. From Letter From An American:

The Atlantic nodded to the free thought on which the magazine was founded in 1857 when it came out strongly for Harris today. It is endorsing Harris, it said, because she “respects the law and the Constitution. She believes in the freedom, equality, and dignity of all Americans. She’s untainted by corruption, let alone a felony record or a history of sexual assault. She doesn’t embarrass her compatriots with her language and behavior, or pit them against one another. She doesn’t curry favor with dictators. She won’t abuse the power of the highest office in order to keep it. She believes in democracy. These, and not any specific policy positions, are the reasons The Atlantic is endorsing her.”

Only (I think it is) the fourth time The Atlantic has endorsed someone for president.   This was a great time to do that, I hope it helps!

teskeinc

Turn out the lights, Kamala is over……🎶🎶

Looks like way more of a bump than expected from the Tampon Timmy debate debacle.

josevolution

teskeinc said:

Turn out the lights, Kamala is over……🎶🎶

Looks like way more of a bump than expected from the Tampon Timmy debate debacle.

Here you go Mr inflation 
https://www.threads.net/@mookie864/post/DA9grogKuKA?xmt=AQGzHrgIfB2QQ3FxXyfmF3_OFCNon8gxH4RiMx2Vgp9NZg

JeBurkhardt

Halifax2TheMax said:

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

That is so thoughtful of him to include the teachers, since one of his and his followers desires is to eliminate the Department of Education. My wife is a special education teacher and removing Federal oversight of SE and other areas will cause unthinkable damage to some children's education. It is already difficult to make some States and school boards follow basic and fair guidelines for SE students. Once the different State education boards don't have to follow the guidelines put in place, it will become a sh*t show of State to State inconsistencies. The State you live in already affects the quality of the education your child gets, with no Federal guidelines in place, it will exasperate it greatly. 

The Juggler

teskeinc said:

Turn out the lights, Kamala is over……🎶🎶

Looks like way more of a bump than expected from the Tampon Timmy debate debacle.

Merkin Baller

JeBurkhardt said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

That is so thoughtful of him to include the teachers, since one of his and his followers desires is to eliminate the Department of Education. My wife is a special education teacher and removing Federal oversight of SE and other areas will cause unthinkable damage to some children's education. It is already difficult to make some States and school boards follow basic and fair guidelines for SE students. Once the different State education boards don't have to follow the guidelines put in place, it will become a sh*t show of State to State inconsistencies. The State you live in already affects the quality of the education your child gets, with no Federal guidelines in place, it will exasperate it greatly. 

It's concerning how little people appreciate this issue.

Vilifying academia and undervaluing education don't typically bode well for societies. 

mrussel1

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

Does anyone think they should have made Kamala the “Hurricane Czar”?

Weren't you going to identify the law that created all the worldwide inflation?  The first two your said made no logical sense since one was never passed and the other came after inflation surged. Surely you can't be misinformed yet again....

Build Back Better morphed into Inflation Increasing Act minus some pork to appease Manchin. Everything they did resulted in inflation. Why did they tell us inflation was going to be transitory? Why did prices never return to where they were? Can you ever admit Biden/Harris made 1 mistake? Is Bidenomics working? Is Kamala still proud of Bidenomics?

Prices never return to what they were.  That's called deflation and a sign of a shrinking economy and a terrible sign.  Surely you learned that in college, right?

Second, so again, you are telling us that inflation was zero, but then Biden passed an act and randomly called it the "Inflation Reduction Act" and it caused inflation.  Makes total sense.  If he hadn't called it that, then there wouldn't be inflation either.  

Is Bidenomics working?  That's just a silly political phrase.  I don't care about that.  Is the economy healthy and inflation at 2%, slightly lower than the fed target? Yes.  Yes it is.  Can one attribute it to the laws passed?  Maybe.  You never know.  Presidents are saddled with the economy whether it's fair or not.  But I'm sure you know that too, from your extensive historical studies of cyclical economics and the political ramifications.  

So the administration effectively lied to us when they said inflation was transitory? Is it possible for the first time ever in AMT history a radical liberal could admit their fearless leader might have lied and made an actual mistake. Nah… never could just pivot to it was Jan 6 fault.

Sigh.. The administration is not the one that declared inflation as transitory, it was the Federal Reserve, specifically Jerome Powell.  Do you think the independent fed, bi-partisan appointee "lied" to you, or do you think...maybe they just got this wrong?  You know there's a difference between lying and wrong.  And the Fed has a very difficult role in making monetary policy.  

Powell admits Fed got it wrong on inflation, says they should stop calling it 'transitory'

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory

Gern Blansten

Merkin Baller said:

JeBurkhardt said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

That is so thoughtful of him to include the teachers, since one of his and his followers desires is to eliminate the Department of Education. My wife is a special education teacher and removing Federal oversight of SE and other areas will cause unthinkable damage to some children's education. It is already difficult to make some States and school boards follow basic and fair guidelines for SE students. Once the different State education boards don't have to follow the guidelines put in place, it will become a sh*t show of State to State inconsistencies. The State you live in already affects the quality of the education your child gets, with no Federal guidelines in place, it will exasperate it greatly. 

It's concerning how little people appreciate this issue.

Vilifying academia and undervaluing education don't typically bode well for societies. 

It's awful. At a time when we should be focusing on public schools and strengthening them these fuckers are trying to push public funds to private and/or religious schools. 

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

Merkin Baller said:

JeBurkhardt said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

That is so thoughtful of him to include the teachers, since one of his and his followers desires is to eliminate the Department of Education. My wife is a special education teacher and removing Federal oversight of SE and other areas will cause unthinkable damage to some children's education. It is already difficult to make some States and school boards follow basic and fair guidelines for SE students. Once the different State education boards don't have to follow the guidelines put in place, it will become a sh*t show of State to State inconsistencies. The State you live in already affects the quality of the education your child gets, with no Federal guidelines in place, it will exasperate it greatly. 

It's concerning how little people appreciate this issue.

Vilifying academia and undervaluing education don't typically bode well for societies. 

It's awful. At a time when we should be focusing on public schools and strengthening them these fuckers are trying to push public funds to private and/or religious schools. 

I don't know man, considering how stupid and gullible half of America is, I'm starting to think public schools are failures.  

Gern Blansten

JeBurkhardt said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Love the afterthought.

Trump has previously said he had hoped to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, home to sports teams such as the New York Knicks and the Rangers, and the most prestigious rock venue in the country.

“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump said in April. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do. We’re going to have a big rally honoring the police, and honoring the firemen, and everybody. Honoring a lot of people, including teachers by the way.”

That is so thoughtful of him to include the teachers, since one of his and his followers desires is to eliminate the Department of Education. My wife is a special education teacher and removing Federal oversight of SE and other areas will cause unthinkable damage to some children's education. It is already difficult to make some States and school boards follow basic and fair guidelines for SE students. Once the different State education boards don't have to follow the guidelines put in place, it will become a sh*t show of State to State inconsistencies. The State you live in already affects the quality of the education your child gets, with no Federal guidelines in place, it will exasperate it greatly. 

It's amazing how we let these morons experiment with our systems. You would think failures would make them change their tune but it doesn't. They just blame democrats and keep going the same direction. Just like the bullshit trickle down theory. Cut taxes and revenue will grow (not to the extent promised to offset the cuts)...yeah right...it NEVER fucking has.

Philly NJ

HughFreakingDillon said:

Philly NJ said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs are a great thing, especially in schools. They help special needs students become well integrated into the school population. Way better than the bad old days when these kids were ostracized and made fun of.

Of course, MAGA turns "DEI" into a racial slur. The new n-word. Bless your poisonous hearts.

DEI Hall of Fame disasters:
Harris
lady in charge of US Secret Service
FEMA Administrator
Secretary of Transportation
Assistant Secretary of HHS 
Sam Brinton, the former deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy
Military DEI training 

so, you're assuming they are all diversity hires...based on what? the colour of their skin? 

Based on Harris/Biden bragging about DEI initiatives and hires. Harris is HOF DEI hire.

Merkin Baller

nvm

mrussel1

Philly NJ said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Philly NJ said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs are a great thing, especially in schools. They help special needs students become well integrated into the school population. Way better than the bad old days when these kids were ostracized and made fun of.

Of course, MAGA turns "DEI" into a racial slur. The new n-word. Bless your poisonous hearts.

DEI Hall of Fame disasters:
Harris
lady in charge of US Secret Service
FEMA Administrator
Secretary of Transportation
Assistant Secretary of HHS 
Sam Brinton, the former deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy
Military DEI training 

so, you're assuming they are all diversity hires...based on what? the colour of their skin? 

Based on Harris/Biden bragging about DEI initiatives and hires. Harris is HOF DEI hire.

She was elected as DA, AG and Senator.  How does that make anyone a "hire"?  That's called a fucking election.  

tbergs

mrussel1 said:

Philly NJ said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Philly NJ said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs are a great thing, especially in schools. They help special needs students become well integrated into the school population. Way better than the bad old days when these kids were ostracized and made fun of.

Of course, MAGA turns "DEI" into a racial slur. The new n-word. Bless your poisonous hearts.

DEI Hall of Fame disasters:
Harris
lady in charge of US Secret Service
FEMA Administrator
Secretary of Transportation
Assistant Secretary of HHS 
Sam Brinton, the former deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy
Military DEI training 

so, you're assuming they are all diversity hires...based on what? the colour of their skin? 

Based on Harris/Biden bragging about DEI initiatives and hires. Harris is HOF DEI hire.

She was elected as DA, AG and Senator.  How does that make anyone a "hire"?  That's called a fucking election.  

Didn't you see the ballot? It said DEI preferred choice and was already filled in when people went to vote.

Philly NJ

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

Does anyone think they should have made Kamala the “Hurricane Czar”?

Weren't you going to identify the law that created all the worldwide inflation?  The first two your said made no logical sense since one was never passed and the other came after inflation surged. Surely you can't be misinformed yet again....

Build Back Better morphed into Inflation Increasing Act minus some pork to appease Manchin. Everything they did resulted in inflation. Why did they tell us inflation was going to be transitory? Why did prices never return to where they were? Can you ever admit Biden/Harris made 1 mistake? Is Bidenomics working? Is Kamala still proud of Bidenomics?

Prices never return to what they were.  That's called deflation and a sign of a shrinking economy and a terrible sign.  Surely you learned that in college, right?

Second, so again, you are telling us that inflation was zero, but then Biden passed an act and randomly called it the "Inflation Reduction Act" and it caused inflation.  Makes total sense.  If he hadn't called it that, then there wouldn't be inflation either.  

Is Bidenomics working?  That's just a silly political phrase.  I don't care about that.  Is the economy healthy and inflation at 2%, slightly lower than the fed target? Yes.  Yes it is.  Can one attribute it to the laws passed?  Maybe.  You never know.  Presidents are saddled with the economy whether it's fair or not.  But I'm sure you know that too, from your extensive historical studies of cyclical economics and the political ramifications.  

So the administration effectively lied to us when they said inflation was transitory? Is it possible for the first time ever in AMT history a radical liberal could admit their fearless leader might have lied and made an actual mistake. Nah… never could just pivot to it was Jan 6 fault.

Sigh.. The administration is not the one that declared inflation as transitory, it was the Federal Reserve, specifically Jerome Powell.  Do you think the independent fed, bi-partisan appointee "lied" to you, or do you think...maybe they just got this wrong?  You know there's a difference between lying and wrong.  And the Fed has a very difficult role in making monetary policy.  

Powell admits Fed got it wrong on inflation, says they should stop calling it 'transitory'

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory

June 10, 2022 (The Atlantic)

Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen did something unusual for a Washington policy maker: She admitted that she’d made a mistake. In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer about the U.S.’s persistently high inflation rate, Yellen said, of her predictions last year that prices would stay under control, “I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take.”

That she was. In March 2021, when inflation hawks were arguing that the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was going to overheat the economy, Yellen called the risk of inflation “small” and “manageable,” and a couple of months later said, “I don’t anticipate that inflation is going to be a problem.” She wasn’t alone. For much of 2021, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he thought inflation would be “transitory,” and even as inflation rose above 6 percent, the Fed kept interest rates near zero. (Its first interest-rate hike was not until March 2022.)

Gern Blansten

Philly NJ said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

mrussel1 said:

teskeinc said:

Does anyone think they should have made Kamala the “Hurricane Czar”?

Weren't you going to identify the law that created all the worldwide inflation?  The first two your said made no logical sense since one was never passed and the other came after inflation surged. Surely you can't be misinformed yet again....

Build Back Better morphed into Inflation Increasing Act minus some pork to appease Manchin. Everything they did resulted in inflation. Why did they tell us inflation was going to be transitory? Why did prices never return to where they were? Can you ever admit Biden/Harris made 1 mistake? Is Bidenomics working? Is Kamala still proud of Bidenomics?

Prices never return to what they were.  That's called deflation and a sign of a shrinking economy and a terrible sign.  Surely you learned that in college, right?

Second, so again, you are telling us that inflation was zero, but then Biden passed an act and randomly called it the "Inflation Reduction Act" and it caused inflation.  Makes total sense.  If he hadn't called it that, then there wouldn't be inflation either.  

Is Bidenomics working?  That's just a silly political phrase.  I don't care about that.  Is the economy healthy and inflation at 2%, slightly lower than the fed target? Yes.  Yes it is.  Can one attribute it to the laws passed?  Maybe.  You never know.  Presidents are saddled with the economy whether it's fair or not.  But I'm sure you know that too, from your extensive historical studies of cyclical economics and the political ramifications.  

So the administration effectively lied to us when they said inflation was transitory? Is it possible for the first time ever in AMT history a radical liberal could admit their fearless leader might have lied and made an actual mistake. Nah… never could just pivot to it was Jan 6 fault.

Sigh.. The administration is not the one that declared inflation as transitory, it was the Federal Reserve, specifically Jerome Powell.  Do you think the independent fed, bi-partisan appointee "lied" to you, or do you think...maybe they just got this wrong?  You know there's a difference between lying and wrong.  And the Fed has a very difficult role in making monetary policy.  

Powell admits Fed got it wrong on inflation, says they should stop calling it 'transitory'

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory

June 10, 2022 (The Atlantic)

Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen did something unusual for a Washington policy maker: She admitted that she’d made a mistake. In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer about the U.S.’s persistently high inflation rate, Yellen said, of her predictions last year that prices would stay under control, “I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take.”

That she was. In March 2021, when inflation hawks were arguing that the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was going to overheat the economy, Yellen called the risk of inflation “small” and “manageable,” and a couple of months later said, “I don’t anticipate that inflation is going to be a problem.” She wasn’t alone. For much of 2021, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that he thought inflation would be “transitory,” and even as inflation rose above 6 percent, the Fed kept interest rates near zero. (Its first interest-rate hike was not until March 2022.)

She admits a mistake...how unusual after dealing with fuckface trump and the dickheads