Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread

JeBurkhardt

JeBurkhardt said:

My ticket request changed from received to you don’t have a request in the last 30 minutes. I expect the dreaded email soon. 

Now it is back to saying request received 🤷‍♂️.

Lerxst1992

curmudgeoness said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SHZA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.

People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.

but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)

We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)

the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.

to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.

But we don't know what the odds for each show are. That makes a difference. Odds for pulling an MSG ticket were very low, due to both demand and fewer available seats. But what were the odds for, say, Portland? If there was a 90% chance of getting a ticket to one show, 75% chance at another, 25% chance at getting Philly 2, 10% chance of getting an MSG show, your total odds are different.

And yes, if the odds of getting a ticket were 95%, someone still was getting shut out. I got Philly 1 and 2 but not Seattle 2, that's just how it turned out.

I agree. If someone were to win the draw for multiple shows anywhere outside of the NE, it seems reasonable. But the NE, especially Philly MSG and Balt are notoriously difficult. Based on the past when they released the odds, common odds were usually 20% or less. (Not including Fenway as it’s a big venue and there were ALOT of ten c sections listed).

someone around 1.15 posted that between their account and 2 family members,  they hit 8 of 11 shows NY PHIL BALT. That seems very lows odds. Even if 30% chance, to hit even five shows would be a very low percent. (Like 30%*30%*30%*30%*30%)

Johnny Abruzzo

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

TheAnc31

JeBurkhardt said:

JeBurkhardt said:

My ticket request changed from received to you don’t have a request in the last 30 minutes. I expect the dreaded email soon. 

Now it is back to saying request received 🤷‍♂️.

How do you check the status? I have the reciept number for the original request but don;t know how to check it

washed in black

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

julia_ament

TheAnc31 said:

JeBurkhardt said:

JeBurkhardt said:

My ticket request changed from received to you don’t have a request in the last 30 minutes. I expect the dreaded email soon. 

Now it is back to saying request received 🤷‍♂️.

How do you check the status? I have the reciept number for the original request but don;t know how to check it

Go to your email confirmation and find the Updating Your Request" section and click "Go to Ten Club Ticket Request". This link was to be used to change your request during the request window, but now it will only show "request received" if you sent it. 

NewfieintheUSA

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Lowlight11

TheAnc31 said:

JeBurkhardt said:

JeBurkhardt said:

My ticket request changed from received to you don’t have a request in the last 30 minutes. I expect the dreaded email soon. 

Now it is back to saying request received 🤷‍♂️.

How do you check the status? I have the reciept number for the original request but don;t know how to check it

Go to the request email and click the link under Updating Request.

It's not helpful I don't think though, all mine say request received but I already got notifications yesterday.

pjl44

One simple way that selecting both GA/P1 and P1 would increase your chances is if it counts as two distinct entries. So if you didn't get pulled for GA you have 2 ping pong balls (GA/P1 and P1) vs 1 ping pong ball (GA/P1 only).

Lerxst1992

BF25394 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Didn’t you (maybe another member?) earlier say it wasn’t common to have multiple winners for high demand shows?
...

considering such low odds and how high demand these cities are, it seems very weird considering how many in northeast are completely shut out. I’ve seen ALOT of members here with this type of luck. Great for them , but very weird.

I have said that you would expect all possible outcomes. Some people will win everything, some will win nothing, some will win something. The lower the demand for the shows you request, the better your chances of winning everything. And, yes, there will be some people who get everything even among the high-demand shows.

If you go back through the 70 pages of this thread relevant to North America, you will see all varieties of outcomes. People are glossing over the mixed outcomes and paying special attention to the all-or-nothing outcomes.

For example, people have referred to lots of people going 10-for-10, but exactly two people in this thread (as of page 89) have reported going 10-for-10.

I agree, except for the NY, Phil and Balt shows (Fenway seems like better odds due to size of venue). NY Phil and Balt are notoriously difficult to win over the years, and to see some fans win four times, even with two accounts, even if we assume a 20% chance per show, the odds to win all those specific cities are well under 1%.

Camden had a crowd of 26,000 in 022, tickets were very difficult and there were almost no face value tickets ever appearing for sale for casual buyers; only PJ premium for $700 and up; LA had two shows and tickets were very easy to get in 2022, to the point PJ premium came down to $220 the week of the show, and were converted to standard tickets. LA is a much bigger city than Camden, but Camden was a much much tougher ticket.

there is no comparison to ticket demand Philly and NY to any other area they tour, from what I have seen here the last ten years.

TheAnc31

julia_ament said:

TheAnc31 said:

JeBurkhardt said:

JeBurkhardt said:

My ticket request changed from received to you don’t have a request in the last 30 minutes. I expect the dreaded email soon. 

Now it is back to saying request received 🤷‍♂️.

How do you check the status? I have the reciept number for the original request but don;t know how to check it

Go to your email confirmation and find the Updating Your Request" section and click "Go to Ten Club Ticket Request". This link was to be used to change your request during the request window, but now it will only show "request received" if you sent it. 

Thanks!!!!

washed in black

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Because it's a completely different option. There is no GA only option anymore, so if you want P1, you check every possible way you can get it.

pjhawks

Lerxst1992 said:

BF25394 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Didn’t you (maybe another member?) earlier say it wasn’t common to have multiple winners for high demand shows?
...

considering such low odds and how high demand these cities are, it seems very weird considering how many in northeast are completely shut out. I’ve seen ALOT of members here with this type of luck. Great for them , but very weird.

I have said that you would expect all possible outcomes. Some people will win everything, some will win nothing, some will win something. The lower the demand for the shows you request, the better your chances of winning everything. And, yes, there will be some people who get everything even among the high-demand shows.

If you go back through the 70 pages of this thread relevant to North America, you will see all varieties of outcomes. People are glossing over the mixed outcomes and paying special attention to the all-or-nothing outcomes.

For example, people have referred to lots of people going 10-for-10, but exactly two people in this thread (as of page 89) have reported going 10-for-10.

I agree, except for the NY, Phil and Balt shows (Fenway seems like better odds due to size of venue). NY Phil and Balt are notoriously difficult to win over the years, and to see some fans win four times, even with two accounts, even if we assume a 20% chance per show, the odds to win all those specific cities are well under 1%.

Camden had a crowd of 26,000 in 022, tickets were very difficult and there were almost no face value tickets ever appearing for sale for casual buyers; only PJ premium for $700 and up; LA had two shows and tickets were very easy to get in 2022, to the point PJ premium came down to $220 the week of the show, and were converted to standard tickets. 

there is no comparison to ticket demand Philly and NY to any other area they tour, from what I have seen here the last ten years.

I've pointed this out before but will say it again. This is the first time for Philly shows at Well Fargo Center that they didn't limit lottery to 1 show like NYC. Not sure why they did that this time but with the 1st show being a Saturday it made that show probably the hardest ticket to get.  someone dropped the ball on letting people get both Philly shows this time imho.

NewfieintheUSA

washed in black said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Because it's a completely different option. There is no GA only option anymore, so if you want P1, you check every possible way you can get it.

Then it's terrible coding. There should be the following 3 boolean fields in the DB that are updated with your request 
GA
P1
P2

If they have it setup otherwise it is a terrible design. 

mpedone

SHZA said:

know1 said:

SHZA said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

know1 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

the fact that selecting GA/P1 and P1 separately would increase your odds makes no sense at all

Well...except for the fact that the Ten Club said it did in the Pre-Sale info.

I believe that was more meaning select P1 and P2 , but who knows for sure 

Right, "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances" -- i.e., selecting GA-P1 increases your chances compared to just P1, and adding P2 increases your chances further, but checking P1 in addition to GA-P1 shouldn't increase your chances because P1 is the same seat preference you already selected. Unless there was a second pool of P1s that weren't included in the GA-P1 pool. If that's not the case, then P1 only should have been disabled (or automatically checked) once you selected GA-P1. 

It's difficult to understand how someone could be going against what the fan club told us was the case. If they said right there in black and white that choosing more options increased your chances, why would you second guess it and not follow their instructions?

But they didn't say "checking more boxes" increases your chances. They said "selecting multiple seat preferences." The question is really whether P1 standalone is the same "seat preference" as P1 when it's grouped with GA. I think it's ambiguous. Why would checking P1 by itself be a new "seat preference" if you've already selected P1 by checking the GA-P1 box? Was there a second pool of P1 tickets that wasn't included in the GA-P1 pool? Or did you essentially get two entries in the P1 lottery by checking the P1 standalone box in addition to the GA-P1 box? Totally unclear 

I think you overthought that, but I do agree that the terminology is odd, and the way results have gone, it really feels like the "GA/P1" option was just GA. It makes no sense that there would be two pools of P1 tickets, one for "GA/P1" and one for "just P1", but then, why would there be P2 sections for some shows, but not others? There are a lot of bad seats at Fenway; I would think that there are plenty of fans who would have opted to take their chances at a decent seat or nothing over GA or crappy seat.

I dunno. My philosophy is also that it's better to have tickets than not. P2? P3? Whatever, I'll be in the building. I can try to upgrade via F2F, and if the demand's there (it usually is) my tickets will sell. Give me whatever gives me the most cracks at tickets.

SHZA

washed in black said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Because it's a completely different option. There is no GA only option anymore, so if you want P1, you check every possible way you can get it.

But it could just mean that if you select GA-P1 instead of P1 by itself, then you have the added possibility of getting GA in addition to P1, rather than reducing your chances of getting P1 if you don't check both boxes. 

kmcmanus

RE4790 said

But I would add that if a result seems impossible based on a set of assumptions, then perhaps it's time to reassess those assumptions.

👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

mpedone

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Because it's a completely different option. There is no GA only option anymore, so if you want P1, you check every possible way you can get it.

Then it's terrible coding. There should be the following 3 fields in the DB that are updated with your request 
GA
P1
P2

If they have it setup otherwise it is a terrible design. 

Terrible design? From Ticketmaster? Unpossible!

NewfieintheUSA

mpedone said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

washed in black said:

Johnny Abruzzo said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

It seems (and seemed) pretty damn clear to me.

Agreed. you're getting 3 chances at the show. If you lose GA/P1 you get thrown into plain P1, lose that you get another chance at P2.

That's how we won Baltimore, a show we really wanted. 

Why would P1 be separate draw for p1 seats than GA/p1?

Because it's a completely different option. There is no GA only option anymore, so if you want P1, you check every possible way you can get it.

Then it's terrible coding. There should be the following 3 fields in the DB that are updated with your request 
GA
P1
P2

If they have it setup otherwise it is a terrible design. 

Terrible design? From Ticketmaster? Unpossible!

Lol

jjflash

pjl44 said:

One simple way that selecting both GA/P1 and P1 would increase your chances is if it counts as two distinct entries. So if you didn't get pulled for GA you have 2 ping pong balls (GA/P1 and P1) vs 1 ping pong ball (GA/P1 only).

That's the way I read it as well. Which begs the question, and to echo others' points: Why not have two literally distinct entries with no overlap: one ping pong ball hopper for GA, and another for seated?