Ukraine

Jearlpam0925

Ledbetterman10 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

mrussel1 said:

mace1229 said:

mrussel1 said:

mace1229 said:

I keep hearing people and countries want to classify Russia and Putin as war criminals.
But what is the point of that? Is it just a label? Would it give reason for more aide and support to Ukraine? Do they expect Outin to turn himself in? What would the realistic outcome be for doing that? 

It seems like it would be just a label. But hoping it means more?

It would affect his ability to travel to international conferences for one, or internationally at all (outside of China and maybe a few other rogue states).  It would also affect his ability to access his assets long term (or forever).   It would also be a serious propaganda victory in Russia.  Imagine if your leader is considered an international war criminal.  

Makes sense. Don’t know how much he would care about any of that except for the assets. 

Not being able to go to Davos, the UN, Olympics, anywhere, makes you pretty impotent as a world leader.  

He had to have known all these sort of sanctions were coming though. He seems okay with isolating Russia from the rest of the world. And between so much dependency on Russian oil, and Russia's quasi-alliance with China, he probably thinks he has cards to play in response to the sanctions. 

I don't know man. I think he thought he'd be in and out in a day, and would have a pro-Russian regime running the show the second they were done.

I agree with this, but I don't think it's something that would cause him to backtrack or second-guess the invasion. In fact, I think it could make him go even more rouge and do something catastrophic. 

Absolutely. But I don't think that means he saw this size of a global backlash coming. He's completely petulant, we know this - the Russian version of Trump if Trump had the authoritarian control of a thirst trap he was/is begging for. He's going to double down and dig his heels in, that's why I don't think absolute worst case scenario is off the table. If Vlad can fucking shoot himself up in Sputnik while the rest of the world burns so that he can come back down to Earth to rule over what's left he absolutely would. We can only hope that there is some seriously internal blacklash and coup/rebellion by the Russian people as a whole - and more importantly to those with a lot of money on the line.

He was on the phone with Macron for 90 minutes and Macron was telling him he's lying to himself lol. And Vlad doubled down that he's taking Ukraine lol. It's insane.

Yeah you might be right. In retrospect it seems obvious that such a backlash would come, but when he was planning this out, he probably thought "Who in the West is going to care about the Ukraine?"

But now, weren't the initial reports that he was going to try and take a section of Ukraine (similar to Crimea in 2014) rather than a complete takeover of the government? I think if he just did that, the backlash wouldn't be near what it is. Frankly, it'd probably be similar to 2014, with Biden's response being similar to Obama's. But invading from various entry points, trying to take the capital, calling for the assassination of the Ukrainian president.....it's become way bigger in scale than at least I expected. 

I mean he wanted to at least take Kharkiv and Donbas because he believes these are Russia sympathizers, like Crimea. But he also said he wanted to take Kyiv and install a Pro-Russian regime. And if you're saying you want to take the nation's capital I think you're basically saying you want to take the country.

The most underrated thing done here to push Putin into a bad spot - and I'm not trying to be a bootlicking party hack for the Dems here - was for Biden to pre-empt any of Putin's actions with showing the US's hand and detailing all of their intel. Because it made Putin pivot from this "oh we'll just do this real quickly ho hum no big deal"  into some nonsensical speech he gave about unifying Russia because Ukraine is actually Russia, blah blah blah. And it turned out that Biden/the U.S. was absolutely right.

But the thing is, also, and absolutely the leading driving force here is the way Zelensky has played all of this. The man has turned into a fucking legend. There's no shot Putin takes Ukraine because even if Zelensky is decapitated he'll be martyred at that point. The dude will have a statue in the middle of Kyiv bigger than the Motherland Monument.

brianlux

mace1229 said:

I keep hearing people and countries want to classify Russia and Putin as war criminals.
But what is the point of that? Is it just a label? Would it give reason for more aide and support to Ukraine? Do they expect Outin to turn himself in? What would the realistic outcome be for doing that? 

It seems like it would be just a label. But hoping it means more?

IN the short run, labeling Putin as a war criminal probably, like you say, only results in more support and aide, which is surely better than nothing.  But I do wish it were more.

I think we really need to avoid implicating Russia as a country though.  There is a huge number of Russian citizens who are against this war.  Those people- though not nearly as victimized as Ukrainians- will also suffer.  Imagine how horrible it must be for them right now knowing their country is going to become more isolated and hated and knowing their economy is shot to hell.

There are victims in Russia as well:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/moscow-police-arrest-children-for-laying-flowers-at-ukrainian-embassy

Three children seated with a protest banner and one crying behind bars. Photograph: Alexandra Arkhipova/Facebook

Russian pensioner 'who survived siege of Leningrad' arrested for protest against Ukraine war – video at link

brianlux

This:

Jearlpam0925

Possible consequence of sanctions, too, and I'm sure what Putin is hoping for - that the Russian citizenry as a whole buy into whatever propaganda is being spewed at them while sanctions are in place that it's actually the world's fault, and not Vlad's, for the current state of affairs in their country.

The Juggler

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

mrussel1

brianlux said:

This:

I'm not sure I've seen much anti -citizenry discussion. 

Jearlpam0925

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I believe I saw something about this - Ukraine is preparing to go from a defensive position to an offensive one. I'll have to find the source. And is that convoy completely within Ukraine? Might be a matter of not crossing borders and/or some combination of not showing your hand, not trying to antagonize a larger amount of resources to show up.

Ledbetterman10

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

The Juggler

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Ledbetterman10

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Yeah really. That convoy is a sitting duck. Look at this photo from two days ago. You can bomb the hell out of them.

PJPOWER

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

I’ve tried to wrap my head around this as a strategic position.  

They are all bogged down and drinking huge amounts of fuel and manpower, who cannot get further supplies without major disruption of the already weakened supply chain.  

There has been incentive for Ukraine citizens to steal Russian tanks, even going as far as saying Ukrainians would not have to claim them on their taxes.  

If they started mobilizing again, I bet they would get taken out, but them being bogged down only hurts Putin’s resources.  

Hell, in the end, they might very well seize every one of these if the morale of the Russian soldiers degrades much more.

static111

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Yeah really. That convoy is a sitting duck. Look at this photo from two days ago. You can bomb the hell out of them.

maybe they dont have bombs or enough bombs and don't want to shake that hornet nest until they are sure they can obliterate the majority of the tanks?

Meltdown99

https://twitter.com/globeandmail/status/1499428277684871183?s=21

Gern Blansten

I was curious about the not claiming a tank on taxes story....why would that need to be stated?  Like not claiming something that you wouldn't claim anyway is some sort of motivation? Why would a Ukranian see that and think "holy shit let's go steal some tanks...we don't have to claim them"?

Ledbetterman10

static111 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Yeah really. That convoy is a sitting duck. Look at this photo from two days ago. You can bomb the hell out of them.

maybe they dont have bombs or enough bombs and don't want to shake that hornet nest until they are sure they can obliterate the majority of the tanks?

I just look at a shot like this and see an opportunity to strike without the risk of civilian casualties (assuming there's no nearby homes that we can't see in the picture). I don't know what the Ukrainians expect to do when this convoy reaches Kyiv. Engage with them on the ground? Maybe...but I don't like their chances. 

Gern Blansten

Ledbetterman10 said:

static111 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Yeah really. That convoy is a sitting duck. Look at this photo from two days ago. You can bomb the hell out of them.

maybe they dont have bombs or enough bombs and don't want to shake that hornet nest until they are sure they can obliterate the majority of the tanks?

I just look at a shot like this and see an opportunity to strike without the risk of civilian casualties (assuming there's no nearby homes that we can't see in the picture). I don't know what the Ukrainians expect to do when this convoy reaches Kyiv. Engage with them on the ground? Maybe...but I don't like their chances. 

I assumed that it was because Russia controls the sky

HughFreakingDillon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

static111 said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I'm sure it has been discussed, but why isn't Ukraine going on offense and attacking this dumb 40 mile Russian convoy? They've been stalled for three days or so? Ukraine has some aircrafts and drones, why aren't they using them now? This is really confusing to me.

I watched a clip on CNN of the former deputy general of NATO talking to Christiane Amanpour and he expressed the same sentiment; he was confused what they were waiting for. 

Maybe they expect the Russians to do an about-face as a result of all these crippling sanctions being thrown at them. 

Obviously that's not the reason. But wouldn't it be ridiculous if it was actually was?

It's really strange. I have seen military analysts say competent militaries never travel so closely like that because it makes them sitting ducks. 


JP--its less than 20 miles from Kyiv, so I would assume it's all the way in Ukraine?

Yeah really. That convoy is a sitting duck. Look at this photo from two days ago. You can bomb the hell out of them.

maybe they dont have bombs or enough bombs and don't want to shake that hornet nest until they are sure they can obliterate the majority of the tanks?

I just look at a shot like this and see an opportunity to strike without the risk of civilian casualties (assuming there's no nearby homes that we can't see in the picture). I don't know what the Ukrainians expect to do when this convoy reaches Kyiv. Engage with them on the ground? Maybe...but I don't like their chances. 

I assumed that it was because Russia controls the sky

This is my presumption.  They are equipped with Javelin primarily,  which have a range of about a mile and half.  So my guess is that they are waiting for them to get closer to Kyiv where you have better cover. With a javelin,  you can immediately go for cover after shooting, unlike the dragon.

The Juggler

Or maybe



I mean...what the fuck do I know?