The indictment is about campaign finance laws, & not hush money, no?
I believe the argument is that the hush money violated campaign laws. The debate is since it likely helped his political campaign, it should have been considered campaign funds or something. In which case, it was not allowed or needed to be reported differently. My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
Is what I said wrong? Is hush money illegal? I didn't know I needed to talk about business NDAs as well. I didn't say toilet paper is common and everyone uses it. Was I supposed to?
Is it common for NDAs to be signed 10 years after you started employment and nothing else has changed? Stop trying to normalize POOTWH's behavior. If you meant to say NDAs, say NDAs. Again, "hush money" is not the same as an NDA, especially 10 years after the fact.
What does the legality of "hush money" have to do with it? But to answer your question, in some circumstances, yes, yes it very much is. Are NDAs illegal?
10 years is how long it took for Storny to start pushing her story. So yeah, you wouldn't pay off someone who isn't threatening to go public with their story, would you?
We'll have to disagree on hush money vs NDA. You sign a contract not to talk, its an NDA. All hush money is an NDA, not all NDAs are hush money.
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
But if "hush money" gets said enough times, that becomes the reality... he's only getting indicted over hush money, which is standard w/ NDAs. Not campaign finance laws, which are important, and exist for a reason. Now all of a sudden it's a bogus indictment because no one cares about hush money.
This is how the narrative is controlled.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
But if "hush money" gets said enough times, that becomes the reality... he's only getting indicted over hush money, which is standard w/ NDAs. Not campaign finance laws, which are important, and exist for a reason. Now all of a sudden it's a bogus indictment because no one cares about hush money.
This is how the narrative is controlled.
Well that would be....dare I say....disingenuous. I saw someone on Fox say Trump is being indicted over just sex. Those people just have no shame.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
The indictment is about campaign finance laws, & not hush money, no?
I believe the argument is that the hush money violated campaign laws. The debate is since it likely helped his political campaign, it should have been considered campaign funds or something. In which case, it was not allowed or needed to be reported differently. My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
Do you know when this all took place, mace? lol We all need to exercise just a fraction of common sense here...especially since his own attorney already has served time over the same exact thing.
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
But if "hush money" gets said enough times, that becomes the reality... he's only getting indicted over hush money, which is standard w/ NDAs. Not campaign finance laws, which are important, and exist for a reason. Now all of a sudden it's a bogus indictment because no one cares about hush money.
This is how the narrative is controlled.
Well that would be....dare I say....disingenuous. I saw someone on Fox say Trump is being indicted over just sex. Those people just have no shame.
Explains why I never got arrested in high school.
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Options
The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
But if "hush money" gets said enough times, that becomes the reality... he's only getting indicted over hush money, which is standard w/ NDAs. Not campaign finance laws, which are important, and exist for a reason. Now all of a sudden it's a bogus indictment because no one cares about hush money.
This is how the narrative is controlled.
Well that would be....dare I say....disingenuous. I saw someone on Fox say Trump is being indicted over just sex. Those people just have no shame.
Whether the charges stick or not, I don't see this resonating very well with people who haven't been drooling for Trump to be held accountable.
Unless Merrick Garland gets off of his worthless ass, anything Trump goes through in the courts will probably shift public opinion in his favor. People will see this simply as giving a bunch of money to someone he cheated with; not admirable, but not important, either.
There is already polling that shows almost 60% of people believe he did something wrong here. That is even before the charges are made public.
Other side of the coin shows a lot of independents think this is politically motivated.
But there is one simple thing that I think will resonate will people, once they think about it: Trump's own lawyer has already spent an entire year in jail for this....and he was following Trump's own orders...which were illegal. That is something very tangible for people to digest.
You also have to remember. While they are saying noisy things right now, most influential Republicans want Trump to GTFO. At this time they are just competing to stay in favor of his mass of idiots. Behind the scenes, they are probably pleased. I'm sure Fox will slowly pivot the story to turn against Trump.
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
I agree with most of your first paragraph. Except the timing was because Stormy had just been trying to push her story. Its not like she's been trying to sell it for 10 years then Trump finale decides to pay her off right before the election, but rather that's when she saw her opportunity to make money off it. You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
The indictment is about campaign finance laws, & not hush money, no?
I believe the argument is that the hush money violated campaign laws. The debate is since it likely helped his political campaign, it should have been considered campaign funds or something. In which case, it was not allowed or needed to be reported differently. My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
Do you know when this all took place, mace? lol We all need to exercise just a fraction of common sense here...especially since his own attorney already has served time over the same exact thing.
Yes, but that's when she decided to push her story. Like my post just above. I know you're right. But how do you prove it?
The indictment is about campaign finance laws, & not hush money, no?
I believe the argument is that the hush money violated campaign laws. The debate is since it likely helped his political campaign, it should have been considered campaign funds or something. In which case, it was not allowed or needed to be reported differently. My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
Do you know when this all took place, mace? lol We all need to exercise just a fraction of common sense here...especially since his own attorney already has served time over the same exact thing.
Yes, but that's when she decided to push her story. Like my post just above. I know you're right. But how do you prove it?
To the bold, nothing wrong legally, but it’s completely unethical and immoral.
trump definitely did it right? Because the alternative is Cohen concocted this plan on his own which is a logistical nightmare to pull off.
so the only way trump gets off…this time…is over a technicality such as it’s really a campaign finance issue which is federal so the state has no standing. Guessing as to that but it’s one way how he gets off now.
But ethically and morally trump did this. Just like Russia but Barr figured out a technicality so maga nation thinks trump is innocent of something immoral to americas national security that Trump obviously did, but that’s besides the point. there is no logical reason Cohen would figure out a way for trump to screw a porn star and pay her off without cohen, who is not wealthy, risking his own money without trump promising to repay him
So when did america become a place where immorality and bad faith are perfectly ok?
The likely charges are two-fold, and I'm guessing there's way more than the common practice of paying "hush money."
First, the campaign finance. POOTWH's campaign was "paid" the $130,000.00 in the form of the "NDA" paid to Stormy Weather, via Michael Cohen, who was then re-imbursed by POOTWH. This aspect of the charges is the most dubious and lest likely to result in a conviction.
Second, Manhattan DA "'going to' Bragg about bringing down POOTWH" is charging that the way the expenses were recorded in the POOTWH business filings, the payments to Cohen as "legal expenses" is the violation of the law because they were not, in fact, business expenses. Further, that the former was done to shield the previous is what escalates the seriousness of the offense. You can argue that if the previous isn't a crime, then how and why do you charge the former. Because its still a crime to list "legal expense" which in fact were not "legal expenses" as a business expense. And if it wasn't a crime, why did Cohen go to jail?
Third, you know what business expenses are? Tax write offs. I'm assuming that some of the 34? counts are tax fraud. And with Weaselberg handing over the second set of books and flipping, I think they have the "smoking gun" on the Stormy Weather "NDA" and a whole lot more. It wasn't the crime, it was the cover up or attempted cover up. Should have just admitted to the affair and shrugged and said, "so what, everybody does it."
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
I agree with most of your first paragraph. Except the timing was because Stormy had just been trying to push her story. Its not like she's been trying to sell it for 10 years then Trump finale decides to pay her off right before the election, but rather that's when she saw her opportunity to make money off it. You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
The timing is everything. She came forward right before the election for obvious reasons. Trump paid her off for obvious reasons. Juries are not stupid.
You keep saying "smoking gun" as if there is nothing to this. You would not get a panel of 23 impartial Americans to indict a former president for nothing. They believe he committed a crime.... likely the same one his lawyer spent time in jail for. Cohen admitted under oath that he did it at the direct of Trump. He's handed over all kinds of documentation to them over the last 5 years.
The indictment is about campaign finance laws, & not hush money, no?
I believe the argument is that the hush money violated campaign laws. The debate is since it likely helped his political campaign, it should have been considered campaign funds or something. In which case, it was not allowed or needed to be reported differently. My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
Do you know when this all took place, mace? lol We all need to exercise just a fraction of common sense here...especially since his own attorney already has served time over the same exact thing.
Yes, but that's when she decided to push her story. Like my post just above. I know you're right. But how do you prove it?
If the grand jury operated under the instructions I was given when I was (almost) put on one, then they've seen enough evidence to think there's a strong likelihood to convict.
We don't know what that evidence is, but safe to assume it's compelling.
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
I agree with most of your first paragraph. Except the timing was because Stormy had just been trying to push her story. Its not like she's been trying to sell it for 10 years then Trump finale decides to pay her off right before the election, but rather that's when she saw her opportunity to make money off it. You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
The timing is everything. She came forward right before the election for obvious reasons. Trump paid her off for obvious reasons. Juries are not stupid.
You keep saying "smoking gun" as if there is nothing to this. You would not get a panel of 23 impartial Americans to indict a former president for nothing. They believe he committed a crime.... likely the same one his lawyer spent time in jail for. Cohen admitted under oath that he did it at the direct of Trump. He's handed over all kinds of documentation to them over the last 5 years.
What do they know that we don't? Pretty much everything. lol
If I remember correctly, Stormy Weather was a reluctant witness at first and didn't come forward on her own until after the rumours were swirling and she was being hounded about it. POOTWH then denied it, she lawyered up, remember AvanotI?, and the rest is history. She sold her story after it broke and wasn't shopping it around, if I recall. Its possible the Cheetos and Cheezits dust has affected my memory.
I had voted The Field. I actually had to go back to check. I really can’t believe it happened.
Now, conviction is another thing altogether.
Prison time? Zero chance.
the charges have not been released yet. they may have more crimes than the hush money to stormy daniels. i am thinking their case is airtight, otherwise they would not indict.
True, but I still don’t see jail time for an ex prez.
If convicted and no jail can he still run for president? Is there any way he can be barred from being president again? I’d take that over any jail time at all for him let him crawl back to Marliego and just sulk in his misery!
Felony convictions are not disqualifying. There is a law that would disqualify him that was enacted after the Civil War. It's related to making war on the US.
Its hard to think all 34 charges relate to the Stormy payment. My understanding is hush money isn't illegal, its actually done all the time. But its where that money came from and how it was paid. You'd probably have to do a lot of clever writing to come up with 34 charges related to that. And the fact its sealed, I think I heard Trump and his lawyers don't even know all the charges. Either there's something big here, or its going to backfire. We'll know soon enough.
Pretty high stakes. Because if it backfires GOP politicians (and maybe just "all politicians") will be even more emboldened in their immunity.
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It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
I agree with most of your first paragraph. Except the timing was because Stormy had just been trying to push her story. Its not like she's been trying to sell it for 10 years then Trump finale decides to pay her off right before the election, but rather that's when she saw her opportunity to make money off it. You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
The timing is everything. She came forward right before the election for obvious reasons. Trump paid her off for obvious reasons. Juries are not stupid.
You keep saying "smoking gun" as if there is nothing to this. You would not get a panel of 23 impartial Americans to indict a former president for nothing. They believe he committed a crime.... likely the same one his lawyer spent time in jail for. Cohen admitted under oath that he did it at the direct of Trump. He's handed over all kinds of documentation to them over the last 5 years.
What do they know that we don't? Pretty much everything. lol
I found this link, Lists counts 1-5 as tax evasion at 5 years. I don't know if that's each or total, I kind of assumed each since 1 year for each count seems small. But maybe not. Then count 6 lists 30 years for the bank fraud. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/michael-cohen-pleads-guilty-manhattan-federal-court-eight-counts-including-criminal-tax The bank fraud I think was the loan or refi he used to pay off Stormy. But that doesn't matter, its not Trump's fault he like on a bank loan, even if the loan was for him. The point is only a small fraction of what he was facing was for this payout and hiding the funds.
If this was some guy I never heard of before who ran for office and paid off a porn star a week before the election. I'd probably think he's guilty but there'd be enough doubt when he says he did it for his family and personal reasons, not the election. It probably was both. So I agree there probably is more, because I don't see charges and an indictment on that alone, especially after all this time. They could have easily found communication between Trump and Cohen (text, emails, etc) discussing this that proves it was more for political than personal reasons. If he just says that Melania already knows then that would eliminate his personal reasons excuse. And that would be the "smoking gun" I was talking about.
I also heard if trump paid Cohen back, as Trump now claims (or his layers), then it's not a political donation at all that needs to be documented.
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
But all it takes is one juror, one witness or one judge to blow it all up. Anyone know where roger Dodger Stoned is?
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
These guys aren't doing jack. They saw how they were hung out to dry when Trump was president. He has no authority now. Trump is trying to talk like a war is brewing along with right wing radio, but there won't be anything close to J6.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
It's been ugly for several years now; the finger wagging that this is going to get [uglier] if the charges don't stick is tiring. The fact is, no one knows what's going to happen, this is uncharted territory for the nation.
If deplorable people want to act more deplorable because law enforcement agencies are doing their job, that's on them.
It's been like 12 hours, how are you that tired of its going to get uglier already? But you're right on a few things. It's been ugly a while, and no one knows what's going to happen. I still predict the reaction is going to be even worse if there isn't a smoking gun and something more than hush money. There's probably going to be protests this weekend either way, just how bad will depend on what they know and have.
Smoking gun? Mace, he's already indicted. His lawyer has already spent a year in jail. We are well past the point of smoking guns here.
And, again, there are more indictments in his short term future. Buckle up.
A few things I want to address.
I think those who said it wouldn't have gotten this far unless its a strong case are right.
I only made my first comment because I don't understand the response JB got when he said he hopes this sticks because if it doesn't, it will get ugly(ier). He's right. Those who breached the capitol because they thought the election was stolen, what will they do if they think he was wrongfully arrested? So why laugh at him for that comment?
But I do have some questions. And I'm not asking because I think none of this sticks and is a witch hunt. I want to know. What is the smoking gun that has been released to the public? Here's my understanding of what we know. Hush money itself isn't illegal. How it is obtained can be. Trump and his attorneys had way more than enough money to pay off the $130,000 to Stormy. Doesn't Trump just have to argue he wanted Stormy quiet for personal reasons, he's married with kids, and not political? Then there's no campaign tie in. Cohen actually paid it her himself, not with any campaign funds. I've seen conflicting stories if Trump paid Cohen back or not, I saw some where it was included in his monthly billing fees for a while, I saw some where Cohen denies being paid back. Either way, I don't understand how that is a violation on Trump.
So by smoking gun I mean what do we know now that makes that untrue?
I know Cohen spent time in jail. Was every charge he faced connected with Stormy and/or Trump? I thought he was facing a bunch of charges, some were connected and some were not, and he just took a plea for it all? If that's the case, that doesn't say much.
The issue isn't just the hush money. I believe the issue is that it was paid to her to benefit his campaign but he did not report it as a campaign expense. So, basically, he hid that from the public and that is illegal. They will try and argue that it was only personal and not campaign related.....but she was paid off right before the election and shortly after the Access Hollywood tapes had come out. I think the timing makes this pretty obvious. Given how close that election was, you can easily make the argument that he would never have become president had the public known about this.
Cohn went to jail for a few reasons, chief among them were campaign finance charges stemming from this Stormy Daniels case. He admitted he paid her off at the direction of Donald Trump. How that doesn't say much doesn't make a whole lot of sense. He went to jail, in large part, because he followed illegal orders given to him by the former president. Why should only Cohen pay a price for that?
I agree with most of your first paragraph. Except the timing was because Stormy had just been trying to push her story. Its not like she's been trying to sell it for 10 years then Trump finale decides to pay her off right before the election, but rather that's when she saw her opportunity to make money off it. You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
The timing is everything. She came forward right before the election for obvious reasons. Trump paid her off for obvious reasons. Juries are not stupid.
You keep saying "smoking gun" as if there is nothing to this. You would not get a panel of 23 impartial Americans to indict a former president for nothing. They believe he committed a crime.... likely the same one his lawyer spent time in jail for. Cohen admitted under oath that he did it at the direct of Trump. He's handed over all kinds of documentation to them over the last 5 years.
What do they know that we don't? Pretty much everything. lol
I found this link, Lists counts 1-5 as tax evasion at 5 years. I don't know if that's each or total, I kind of assumed each since 1 year for each count seems small. But maybe not. Then count 6 lists 30 years for the bank fraud. https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/michael-cohen-pleads-guilty-manhattan-federal-court-eight-counts-including-criminal-tax The bank fraud I think was the loan or refi he used to pay off Stormy. But that doesn't matter, its not Trump's fault he like on a bank loan, even if the loan was for him. The point is only a small fraction of what he was facing was for this payout and hiding the funds.
If this was some guy I never heard of before who ran for office and paid off a porn star a week before the election. I'd probably think he's guilty but there'd be enough doubt when he says he did it for his family and personal reasons, not the election. It probably was both. So I agree there probably is more, because I don't see charges and an indictment on that alone, especially after all this time. They could have easily found communication between Trump and Cohen (text, emails, etc) discussing this that proves it was more for political than personal reasons. If he just says that Melania already knows then that would eliminate his personal reasons excuse. And that would be the "smoking gun" I was talking about.
I also heard if trump paid Cohen back, as Trump now claims (or his layers), then it's not a political donation at all that needs to be documented.
But we don't know yet. Its all just speculation.
Read the article I gave you. It was about the Cohen case specifically. Does not say 60 years.
I think you should stop downplaying Cohen going to jail. If Cohen did not do what Trump told him to do regarding the Stormy Daniels, he would not have been in trouble and he would not have gone to jail. We should not have a separate justice system for the rich and powerful. It is simply not fair for Cohen to pay a price for this and for Trump not to.
There is a smoking gun. He has already been indicted. An impartial jury of 23 Americans would not indict a former president over nothing.
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
Yeah, I have to think the GJ was given no small amount of instructions about how unprecedented and important this case was & how crucial it is to get it right.
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
These guys aren't doing jack. They saw how they were hung out to dry when Trump was president. He has no authority now. Trump is trying to talk like a war is brewing along with right wing radio, but there won't be anything close to J6.
you don't think so? I don't know. they aren't the brightest batch...
this is an ex president. an ex president whose followers say they are willing to go to war if he gets charged/gets convicted/goes to jail. they've already stormed the capitol just for not being able to count.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
These guys aren't doing jack. They saw how they were hung out to dry when Trump was president. He has no authority now. Trump is trying to talk like a war is brewing along with right wing radio, but there won't be anything close to J6.
Yup. He completely abandoned all those suckers and losers, and they know it.
I think the potential problem is with independent and swing voters, if they buy into the whole witch hunt theme, which IMO is why it's important to steer the conversation away from dismissing this as simply being about hush money or sex.
Laws were broken here... if they weren't the GJ probably doesn't indict.
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My understanding is if Trump can claim he wanted his affair kept quiet for personal and not political reasons, then there was nothing wrong with how it was paid.
We'll have to disagree on hush money vs NDA. You sign a contract not to talk, its an NDA. All hush money is an NDA, not all NDAs are hush money.
This is how the narrative is controlled.
We all need to exercise just a fraction of common sense here...especially since his own attorney already has served time over the same exact thing.
You also have to remember. While they are saying noisy things right now, most influential Republicans want Trump to GTFO. At this time they are just competing to stay in favor of his mass of idiots. Behind the scenes, they are probably pleased. I'm sure Fox will slowly pivot the story to turn against Trump.
You and I both know it helped his campaign and probably the main reason he agreed to. But how do you prove that? He's certainly not the first man who's tried to hide an affair. Thus, one of the reasons I asked what's the new smoking gun? What do they know now that we don't?
I just googled it. Cohen was facing far more jail time for tax evasion and bank fraud. He hid $6 million in income from his taxes. Facing something like a max of 60 years for his financial fraud. So, doesn't seem like a big deal to me that he plead guilty to campaign fund fraud too and only had to serve 1 year for all of it. He was probably happy to plead guilty to everything for the sentence he got.
so the only way trump gets off…this time…is over a technicality such as it’s really a campaign finance issue which is federal so the state has no standing. Guessing as to that but it’s one way how he gets off now.
But ethically and morally trump did this. Just like Russia but Barr figured out a technicality so maga nation thinks trump is innocent of something immoral to americas national security that Trump obviously did, but that’s besides the point. there is no logical reason Cohen would figure out a way for trump to screw a porn star and pay her off without cohen, who is not wealthy, risking his own money without trump promising to repay him
So when did america become a place where immorality and bad faith are perfectly ok?
First, the campaign finance. POOTWH's campaign was "paid" the $130,000.00 in the form of the "NDA" paid to Stormy Weather, via Michael Cohen, who was then re-imbursed by POOTWH. This aspect of the charges is the most dubious and lest likely to result in a conviction.
Second, Manhattan DA "'going to' Bragg about bringing down POOTWH" is charging that the way the expenses were recorded in the POOTWH business filings, the payments to Cohen as "legal expenses" is the violation of the law because they were not, in fact, business expenses. Further, that the former was done to shield the previous is what escalates the seriousness of the offense. You can argue that if the previous isn't a crime, then how and why do you charge the former. Because its still a crime to list "legal expense" which in fact were not "legal expenses" as a business expense. And if it wasn't a crime, why did Cohen go to jail?
Third, you know what business expenses are? Tax write offs. I'm assuming that some of the 34? counts are tax fraud. And with Weaselberg handing over the second set of books and flipping, I think they have the "smoking gun" on the Stormy Weather "NDA" and a whole lot more. It wasn't the crime, it was the cover up or attempted cover up. Should have just admitted to the affair and shrugged and said, "so what, everybody does it."
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You keep saying "smoking gun" as if there is nothing to this. You would not get a panel of 23 impartial Americans to indict a former president for nothing. They believe he committed a crime.... likely the same one his lawyer spent time in jail for. Cohen admitted under oath that he did it at the direct of Trump. He's handed over all kinds of documentation to them over the last 5 years.
Cohen was sentenced for tax evasion, lying about Trump's business dealings in Russia under oath (at Trump's direction, mind you) and for this campaign finance law that has gotten Trump indicted. I saw a max of 4-5 years. Where did you get 60?
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-elections-crime-d6dbb8b02a4446f6800de794b45523e6
What do they know that we don't? Pretty much everything. lol
We don't know what that evidence is, but safe to assume it's compelling.
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Laura Ingraham was HILARIOUS last night, talking about the left being out to get Trump.
My advice to Trizzy is maybe to stop committing crimes.
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Sorry, just getting ahead of the announcement
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/michael-cohen-pleads-guilty-manhattan-federal-court-eight-counts-including-criminal-tax
The bank fraud I think was the loan or refi he used to pay off Stormy. But that doesn't matter, its not Trump's fault he like on a bank loan, even if the loan was for him. The point is only a small fraction of what he was facing was for this payout and hiding the funds.
If this was some guy I never heard of before who ran for office and paid off a porn star a week before the election. I'd probably think he's guilty but there'd be enough doubt when he says he did it for his family and personal reasons, not the election. It probably was both. So I agree there probably is more, because I don't see charges and an indictment on that alone, especially after all this time.
They could have easily found communication between Trump and Cohen (text, emails, etc) discussing this that proves it was more for political than personal reasons. If he just says that Melania already knows then that would eliminate his personal reasons excuse. And that would be the "smoking gun" I was talking about.
I also heard if trump paid Cohen back, as Trump now claims (or his layers), then it's not a political donation at all that needs to be documented.
But we don't know yet. Its all just speculation.
he wouldn't have been charged had this not been air tight.
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I think you should stop downplaying Cohen going to jail. If Cohen did not do what Trump told him to do regarding the Stormy Daniels, he would not have been in trouble and he would not have gone to jail. We should not have a separate justice system for the rich and powerful. It is simply not fair for Cohen to pay a price for this and for Trump not to.
There is a smoking gun. He has already been indicted. An impartial jury of 23 Americans would not indict a former president over nothing.
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I think the potential problem is with independent and swing voters, if they buy into the whole witch hunt theme, which IMO is why it's important to steer the conversation away from dismissing this as simply being about hush money or sex.
Laws were broken here... if they weren't the GJ probably doesn't indict.