I don't know if anyone else saw the video on twitter of the couple wearing swastika masks to the supermarket and the woman saying that would be Joe Biden's America if he's elected. It was pointed out that we fought a war against the Nazis and they lost. I didn't want to bring the video here. How many Nazis are out there? Do they feel safe wearing that emblem? I mean, free speech is a right but I wouldn't go out and poke a hornet's nest just because I can. I'm not crazy as far as I know. I hope they realize the truth and put those masks in a hole in the ground with some dog poop. Hey Nazis, get a nice sports team mask.
Nate Silver keeps teasing their forecast model. Looking forward to that coming out soon. I'm assuming it will give Trump better odds than most of the others as it did four years ago.
We could have a pool...
...But I'm not sending anyone money.
I'd say 62% chance Biden wins according to the first Silver model.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Nate Silver keeps teasing their forecast model. Looking forward to that coming out soon. I'm assuming it will give Trump better odds than most of the others as it did four years ago.
We could have a pool...
...But I'm not sending anyone money.
I'd say 62% chance Biden wins according to the first Silver model.
I'll guess 53%-47% Sleepy Woke Joe over Team Trump Treason.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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Kat
There's a lot to be said for nowhere. Posts: 4,772
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
Good god. This conversation again? Lol
The. Polls. Were. Accurate. (They were in 18 also)
They’ll be even more accurate this time around.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.
I agree....but without a Comey letter this year's state polls should be much more accurate.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.
His lead in the swing states is close to the national lead. 7.6 in Mich. 6.7 in PA and and 7.1 in WI. Well over margin of error. The fact that the national lead is so large is a good indicator of what will happen on Election Day. In '16 HRC's lead was never close to as big. Her average rarely got over 45-45%, thus her state leads were also slimmer.
This ain't 2016, folks.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.
58% is better than 70% based on what happened, not on what Silver predicted was going to happen. Trump's number should have been lower and Hillary's higher based on the numbers in WI, MI and PA. Trump had no path to 270 without at least one of those and he was at less than 28.6 in all three. Pointing to the national prediction allows us to ignore Silver was essentially predicting a close popular vote but an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I don't fault him for that and it's not that far off from what I thought was going to happen. But I was wrong, and so was he.
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
2016 % were not meaningless. They were relatively accurate
The states were not relatively accurate. MI, WI and PA were wildly off. Why argue this point?
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
They weren't....Silver predicted a national vote of Clinton by 2-3% and that was right on.
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
I didn't say we should ignore the polls. I said the overall percentage will be largely meaningless and that the states themselves will tell the story. We don't have a national vote so pointing to a national polling average seems a bit like trying to predict who will win the World Series by calculating who will score the most runs over seven games. It might get you the right answer, but only if the losing team (Clinton) doesn't win game 1 (California) in a rout.
His lead in the swing states is close to the national lead. 7.6 in Mich. 6.7 in PA and and 7.1 in WI. Well over margin of error. The fact that the national lead is so large is a good indicator of what will happen on Election Day. In '16 HRC's lead was never close to as big. Her average rarely got over 45-45%, thus her state leads were also slimmer.
This ain't 2016, folks.
And today in the Phillies thread you said "Sixers and golf, folks."
The overall percentage will be largely meaningless, much like it was in 2016. The individual states should tell the story. But, since we're prognosticating....
Biden 68% Trump 32%
So again, these are not polls....these are the odds to win the election. As you can see 538 only gave HRC a 58% chance 100 days out. Seems pretty reasonable, no?
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
58% in November would have made more sense than 70%, yes, but you still wouldn't be able to back that up by his prediction in the individual states.
No not really. I would say 70% was reasonable, especially considering only 70,000 people out of 130 MILLION essentially decided the election. And also Jim fucking Comey was extremely difficult to factor in so close to Election Day.
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.
58% is better than 70% based on what happened, not on what Silver predicted was going to happen. Trump's number should have been lower and Hillary's higher based on the numbers in WI, MI and PA. Trump had no path to 270 without at least one of those and he was at less than 28.6 in all three. Pointing to the national prediction allows us to ignore Silver was essentially predicting a close popular vote but an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I don't fault him for that and it's not that far off from what I thought was going to happen. But I was wrong, and so was he.
What part of Jim Comey don't you understand? The polling didn't have enough time to take his nonsense into account.
58% or 70% is not 100%. It just meant HRC was the prohibitive favorite...which she was. Plenty of others had HRC as around a 90% lock on Election Day.
538 was more accurate than any other forecasting model.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA.
The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception.
___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA.
The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception.
Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election 59% in WI 54% in PA 50% in MI I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.
Hillary picked her running-mate on July 22, 2016. So when's Biden going to do it? It may play a factor in the polls.
Supposedly by August 1st
Okay cool. I'll be interested to see who he picks and if it affects any polling. Unlike in 2016, when the running-mates could've been just about anyone, I feel like this Biden pick will carry more water.
Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA.
The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception.
Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election 59% in WI 54% in PA 50% in MI I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.
As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.
___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
Jim Comey is a convenient boogieman, and maybe he did swing Florida and North Carolina to Trump, but there is no chance he alone is responsible for the discrepancies we saw in MI, Wi and PA.
The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception.
Yeah? Tell that to all the people who decided to vote for Trump in the last week of the election 59% in WI 54% in PA 50% in MI I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.
As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.
Sounds like your issue is not with the polling or the forecasts, you just seem to disbelieve what people are saying to the exit polling people as they left their polling places. I don't know why they would lie in that instance.
Clinton was a horrible candidate who didn't go to Wisconsin once. Of course it's an indictment on her campaign. But the bottom line is the vast majority of people who decided in the last week went to Trump and polling could not take that into account. And there was only one insanely huge political bombshell that dropped around that time that benefited Trump. So it's not hard to put two and two together here...
Post edited by The Juggler on
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,312
edited July 2020
Biden
Here's some more Nate Silver for you since you love him so much
The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.
But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.
Comments
I don't know if anyone else saw the video on twitter of the couple wearing swastika masks to the supermarket and the woman saying that would be Joe Biden's America if he's elected. It was pointed out that we fought a war against the Nazis and they lost. I didn't want to bring the video here. How many Nazis are out there? Do they feel safe wearing that emblem? I mean, free speech is a right but I wouldn't go out and poke a hornet's nest just because I can. I'm not crazy as far as I know.
Hey Nazis, get a nice sports team mask.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Biden 68%
Trump 32%
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Silver's overall percentage should be reflected in the states. You'd be hard pressed to crunch Trump's numbers as presented back then and come up with 28.6.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
Yes MI, WI and PA were off but the polls did not have time to adjust to the Comey letter....remember that?
To say we should ignore the polls in 2020 due to the fucked up election of 2016 makes no sense.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
The. Polls. Were. Accurate. (They were in 18 also)
I'll say they have Biden at 65% or so. We shall see
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
This ain't 2016, folks.
70% was a pretty good gauge, if you ask me.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
You're turning into Biden!
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
58% or 70% is not 100%. It just meant HRC was the prohibitive favorite...which she was. Plenty of others had HRC as around a 90% lock on Election Day.
538 was more accurate than any other forecasting model.
The passionate Nate Silver defenses are never not weird, and this exchange has been no exception.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
59% in WI
54% in PA
50% in MI
I'll toss in 59% in FL for good measure.
-
You should read this when you have a little time:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
As for late deciders, sure. They almost all broke from Clinton and Comey was certainly a big reason why. That there were so many late deciders is an indictment of Clinton and her campaign, but I personally don't believe everyone who claims to have only decided to vote for Trump in the last week. Trump is scum and was then, and most of America knew that. I personally think many of the 63 million who pulled the lever for him decided they were going to long before they admitted it to themselves or anyone else. And long before Comey's letter. No way to prove that, but I'm not willing to blindly accept as fact something a Trump voter tells me about their reasons for casting that vote. "Comey" is a lot easier to sell to your friends and family, to your kids, than racism and misogyny.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
Clinton was a horrible candidate who didn't go to Wisconsin once. Of course it's an indictment on her campaign. But the bottom line is the vast majority of people who decided in the last week went to Trump and polling could not take that into account. And there was only one insanely huge political bombshell that dropped around that time that benefited Trump. So it's not hard to put two and two together here...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/
The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.
But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.