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Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

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    I'm sitting this one out
    mickeyrat said:

    The lines in the B looks to be a different width then the rest.

    Should have worked a bit more on that.
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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    I'm sitting this one out
    The amount of people who believe not only in trickle-down but also trickle-up is fucking astounding.

    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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    I'm sitting this one out
    Liz Williams, co-director of ARC said: “Our research shows that the state department under the Trump administration has excluded human rights issues from its reports which continue to be well documented elsewhere. We are concerned that these omissions have the effect of denying the existence of rights or abuses and may result in certain types of asylum claims being dismissed if the US Department of State reports are relied upon in isolation.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/21/trump-administration-human-rights-annual-reports

    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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    Spiritual_ChaosSpiritual_Chaos Posts: 29,106
    edited October 2020
    I'm sitting this one out
    This just popped up as a preroll for me on youtube,

    Made me think of the discussions concerning the current US health care system, and people on here defending it. Made me chuckle.

    https://youtu.be/-99LFmrmt3w

    Hopefully 8 years of Biden (and/or Harris) can make changes to that mentality and make those comments finally be considered as, as absurd as the ones in the video
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,894
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
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    “We kind of just never used it.” That’s how you do plausible deniability, boys and girls.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/20/proud-boys-emails-florida/
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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    mcgruff10mcgruff10 New Jersey Posts: 27,914
    Biden
    The freaking nerve of this guy, unreal.  How dare we try to bring people out of poverty.  Damn demoncrats.

    https://www.yahoo.com/money/bidens-social-security-and-ssi-plan-would-lift-14-million-out-of-poverty-study-finds-200534985.html

    Joe Biden’s plans for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income would lift 1.4 million Americans out of poverty in its first year, a new analysis found, along with guaranteeing the payout of full benefits for another five years.

    The former vice president’s plan hinges on imposing the 6.2% Social Security tax on earnings above $400,000. Employees and their employers are taxed on earnings up to $137,000 under current guidelines.

    If enacted next year, Social Security would collect 7% more in revenue in 2021, 12% more in 2040, and 16% more in 2065 than under current law, according to the analysis. That would allow Biden to move forward on a seven-pronged plan to increase benefits for Social Security and SSI recipients.

    “Social Security faces a serious financial problem and the next president is going to have to deal with this,” said Richard John, senior fellow at the Program on Retirement Policy at the Urban Institute, a think tank, “It’s getting to the point now where they’re going to have to act sooner through tax increases or cuts to Social Security.”


    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,989
    Biden
    The buzz in tRumpville yesterday was that the WSJ was going to have a breakout story on Hunter Biden....turns out it was just an opinion piece that made no waves at all.

    Tiktok is full of tRumpsters saying that the laptop had child porn on it....they conveniently overlook that the FBI has the laptop and has not made any arrests for child porn.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,153
    benjs said:
    brianlux said:

    Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

    The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

    But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

    At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.
    I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 


    It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

    Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

    Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

    This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

    Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.
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    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,153
    What does "packing the court" mean?
    Adding seats to the SC.  In this case Biden would add three seats so that there would be 12 justices.  The reason being that the court is lopsided with 6 conservatives and 3 liberals.  It makes total sense.
    What does "packing the court" mean?
    Adding seats to the SC.  In this case Biden would add three seats so that there would be 12 justices.  The reason being that the court is lopsided with 6 conservatives and 3 liberals.  It makes total sense.
    the court in no way reflects the electorate or the prevailing opinions of the majority of americans.

    it is kind of stupid that replacing justices all depends on when they die and what political party holds the white house and the senate.

    biden needs to add 4 justices to make it 13. make these republicans pay and pay dearly for the last 16 years.
    This sounds, to an outsider who hasn't thought about judges in his entire life, like changing the rules to monopoly mid-game.

    Would you say the same, if there was 6 liberal judges on the court?

    Your comment is ironic because in the winter and spring we were debating Medicare for all, and I pointed out it has no chance in America unless the Dems grow some courage and start playing hardball like the republicans do.

    The constitution says congress sets the number of justices. It would have taken five words to set a limit and the constitution does not. For all we know the framers foresaw a situation just like this and decided to give this power to congress.

    100% Dems will have this constitutional power if they win congress and presidency, as well as the power of adding states such as DC and PR

    They should not hesitate.
    I don't see the irony.

    But okey, it can be changed by congress with just one session of voting. Then do it. But then the amount of judges can yoyo depending on who's in charge of congress? No "there need to be two votes held, with an election between them" or something similar, like important matters in Sweden?

    It’s ironic because IIRC you were very vocal about sanders winning the nomination because healthcare should be provided for everyone. I countered that in this country the red states get more power and the courts will not allow expanded Medicare for all.

    Now we have the worst possible scenario on the Court. 

    To make change like you wanted happen, Dems must be bold and not hesitate. And we don’t know if packing the Court will make it “yo-yo.” It requires one party to sweep elections, and if Dems win this year, it’s unlikely the Rs will have a realistic chance at winning the House in another 12 years (that’s a long explanation). So 12 years with 12+ Justices is much better than what we have now.

    Further, packing the Court should be accompanied by statehood for DC and PR. That give the Dems much better odds for holding the senate long term.
  • Options
    benjsbenjs Toronto, ON Posts: 8,941
    benjs said:
    brianlux said:

    Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

    The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

    But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

    At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.
    I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 


    It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

    Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

    Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

    This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

    Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.
    The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
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    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,989
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,153
    benjs said:
    benjs said:
    brianlux said:

    Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

    The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

    But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

    At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.
    I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 


    It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

    Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

    Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

    This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

    Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.
    The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

    The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

     Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

    Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.
  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,678
    Biden
    benjs said:
    benjs said:
    brianlux said:

    Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

    The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

    But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

    At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.
    I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 


    It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

    Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

    Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

    This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

    Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.
    The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

    The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

     Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

    Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.
    Agreed, having the votes in hand is clearly better.  It's hard to tell if this data is great for the Democrats, but it certainly isn't bad for them. 
  • Options
    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,989
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Options
    HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 35,848
    edited October 2020
    Biden
    you just can't fake that type of empathy. trump would have had people take that poor kid into custody. and trump supporters would probably laugh at that and call biden weak because of that. 
    Flight Risk out NOW!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • Options
    F Me In The BrainF Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 30,659
    Biden
    Trump would have called security to tackle someone trying to hug him.  (Unless it was a fit woman, in which case he probably would have grabbed a very strange hug.)
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Options
    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,989
    Biden
    you just can't fake that type of empathy. trump would have had people take that poor kid into custody. and trump supporters would probably laugh at that and call biden weak because of that. 
    Or call Biden a pedo....that's the pattern
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Options
    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
  • Options
    RunIntoTheRainRunIntoTheRain Texas Posts: 1,011
    Biden
    That is the human that Joe Biden is. It's really that simple. 
  • Options
    brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,760
    Biden
    A compassionate human being as president- that's something I can get behind and Joe is the man!
    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













  • Options
    Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 16,810
  • Options
    Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom's Posts: 17,989
    Biden
    The boy's father was killed in the Parkland shooting
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,153
    mrussel1 said:
    benjs said:
    benjs said:
    brianlux said:

    Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

    The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

    But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

    At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.
    I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 


    It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

    Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

    Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

    This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

    Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.
    The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

    The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

     Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

    Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.
    Agreed, having the votes in hand is clearly better.  It's hard to tell if this data is great for the Democrats, but it certainly isn't bad for them. 

    It’s up from 31M at 10pm EDT last night to 38M this morning to 41M now. 10M votes processed in the last 18 hours. 21% of the total record early vote in the last 18 hours

    Democrats have been sayin vote early and vote by mail. Trump has been discouraging it. This could turn out to be the key story of the election.
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,153
    States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

    Democratic “leads”
    FL +13
    IA +22
    NC +16
    NV +14
    PA +50
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
    Biden
    States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

    Democratic “leads”
    FL +13
    IA +22
    NC +16
    NV +14
    PA +50
    How bout that commonwealth of pa knocking early voting out of the park?!
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Options
    States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

    Democratic “leads”
    FL +13
    IA +22
    NC +16
    NV +14
    PA +50
    How bout that commonwealth of pa knocking early voting out of the park?!
    Isn’t that just percentage of dem over repub votes and not total early votes cast? PA could have 100 votes cast and FL 10,000. And probably dems in Philly coming out in droves, early. And they still need to be counted. Question is, where and how are they kept until that happens? Arson is a real thing.
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