1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
This is called non response bias. They may have talked about it on the article but I couldn't get past the wall. This happens when a catastrophic event affects one person or party. Pollsters should know about this and adjust their samples accordingly. Hard to tell if they do or not.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
It's more of a recent trend to not respond to pollsters in the wake of Trump not doing well...so it's suggesting that Trump wins, nor the "shy" Trump voter...more that the swing to Biden could be less yuge than it looks.
Here's an interesting thing from 538...they disagree with the "shy" Trump voter theory, though show other biases that could under-report Trump, namely the under-representation of non-college whites, which is Trump's strongest-held base (that said, some pollsters try to adjust for it).
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
It's more of a recent trend to not respond to pollsters in the wake of Trump not doing well...so it's suggesting that Trump wins, nor the "shy" Trump voter...more that the swing to Biden could be less yuge than it looks.
Here's an interesting thing from 538...they disagree with the "shy" Trump voter theory, though show other biases that could under-report Trump, namely the under-representation of non-college whites, which is Trump's strongest-held base (that said, some pollsters try to adjust for it).
lol
So Biden's not up 10, he's up 7 or 8. Yeah, got it.
The Economist gives Biden a 92% chance of winning, by the way...
Biden and will dvr Trump's disaster (maybe stream it at the same time)....or better yet, will just watch the post game shows to see the lowlights.
that's really all you need. edit out all of the "right, folks?" x100 and you have a 5 minute ramble about hillary's emails and fake news and stupid nicknames.
"Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk" -EV 8/14/93
NBC is the network that told millions of people that Trump was a billionaire business genius every week for years.
NBC's job is to sell ad spots. I don't blame them for what they're doing. I think Trump will draw more audiences because people like to see a train wreck. He can't stop being himself for long periods of time. The only time he doesnt' seem unhinged is when he (poorly) reads a speech.
Oh good, then he can point to his higher ratings than Biden's. Hell, if Biden wins, people will probably point to these ratings as evidence it was rigged.
Yeah that is exactly what he will do. Since it's NBC it will also be on MSNBC and CNBC so there is literally no way for the ratings not to be higher.
Above all else, it is a disservice to the voters.
and we have the means to hurt the peacock by watching other stations from here on out.....
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Will you watch Biden's or Trump's townhall (they air at the same time)?
BE HONEST NOW!
No. I really cannot watch either of them. I cringe at Biden. He just seems soooooo old. And Trump, well, he's Trump. I voted, so I'll do something less agonizing at that time. (If I was a Nielson household, I'd put Biden on and leave the room)
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
I’ll just wait for a couple of posters to reveal that indictments are incoming, after Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat takes a folded up blank piece of paper out of his suit jacket’s inside pocket and waves it around and yells about the disgrace. Any. Day. Now.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
Trump’s big thing is fake news and fake media. One easy way his supporters can participate in that is to lie to pollsters.
Its difficult to say precisely why pollsters had trouble estimating trumps 2016 performance but it’s easy to say hundreds and hundreds of polls were dead wrong. Either it’s because they are not able to properly sample or republicans are very good at suppressing the vote.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
Trump’s big thing is fake news and fake media. One easy way his supporters can participate in that is to lie to pollsters.
Its difficult to say precisely why pollsters had trouble estimating trumps 2016 performance but it’s easy to say hundreds and hundreds of polls were dead wrong. Either it’s because they are not able to properly sample or republicans are very good at suppressing the vote.
It's not that difficult to figure out what happened in 2016. The exit polling showed that the pollsters underestimated the non college educated white assholes. They tweeked their polling for it in 2018 and were closer and they are tweeking it even more for this election.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
Trump’s big thing is fake news and fake media. One easy way his supporters can participate in that is to lie to pollsters.
Its difficult to say precisely why pollsters had trouble estimating trumps 2016 performance but it’s easy to say hundreds and hundreds of polls were dead wrong. Either it’s because they are not able to properly sample or republicans are very good at suppressing the vote.
the polling wasn't off by much in 2016. it was how the media spun it that was incorrect.
"Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk" -EV 8/14/93
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
I’ll have to disagree. When half our staff meetings and nearly all of our diversity trainings (of which we’ve had several since the beginning of the school year) the leaders of the meetings mention republicans and conservatives are racist, they become silent on the topic. Not all obviously. But rather than be labeled a racist for simply being conservative, it’s easier to not engage in the conversation in the work place. Thats not to say there aren’t silent or shy Biden voters too.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
0
brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,070
So I sent $100 to the Biden campaign while I could. We normally use our tithing money to support environmental work, but this years election is HUGELY important, so we coughed up the bucks for Biden/Harris. Perhaps others here might consider doing the same here:
I know people think giving money to candidates is some kind of sham, but it really is the best and most efficient way to make an impact. We've moved all of our donations from non-profits over to candidates for the most part. If I want what I want done then I've got to put that money into the hands of the people I believe will enact legislation so the non-profits can actually do the work. Without the right candidates then the work will never be substantial - especially now that donating to 501c3's is basically worthless from a tax perspective.
Good work.
I half way agree and fully respect what you're saying. Helping candidates win that are more likely to pass useful legislation is very important.
As much as economic and social issues are important, my biggest concerns are environmental. Because of that, I support organizations that actively work to protect environment. For example, I used to support Greenpeace but now give to Sea Shepherd Conservation Society instead. This difference between the two is that Greenpeace actively protests the killing of whales, ocean mammal, and endangered sea species whereas Sea Shepherds actively protect those species. I've dropped support for groups that merely protest, and support those that actually do the work- groups like Sea Shepherds, Wildlands Network, and Natural Resources Defense Council.
But this year, I have to give money to the Biden campaign. I don't feel highly confident that he will be as active in supporting environment as I would like, but I do believe Trump must hate this planet and his actions are harmful to the earth. Assuming Biden wins, after this election, I will resume my seldom giving money to politicians, and continue to use most of my tithing money to support those environmental organizations that defend the planet. Democrats are generally more helpful toward environment than republicans, but from what I have seen, they are also generally rather weak on environment. We're running out of time and politicians have been dragging their feet far too long on those issues.
Yeah so I think we agree but are saying it in different ways. My personal opinion is if people gave money locally to candidates (locally) that are pro-environment/pro-whatever you may believe we'd have a lot less problems locally, and therefore less problems nationally. Voting locally, donating locally is where it all starts for me. Get a state house in your favor, and keep pushing - legislators that believe in your causes will make the work more easily attainable. My dollars go so much further giving to my local state rep/senator every year than to a presidential nominee every four years. Not to say that doesn't matter, but it all starts at the local, grassroots level which will undoubtedly make its way to the very top with consistent involvement. It's not a coincidence that major oil companies, corporations, the wealthy, etc etc give money to candidates across the board. I'm just trying to do my little part in trying to take that back.
At the same time, though, I am proactively contributing money to candidates in House & US Senate races where there's a chance of moving the needle blue (AK, IA, NC, SC, AZ, MT, ME), along with giving to turnpablue.org/swingleft.org/pastandsup.org so that my dollars will help tilt the house here where I live.
Yes, local, county and state support is great.
Involvement is hugely important as well. State senate hearings, County Board of Supervisor meetings, City Hall meetings- all excellent experiences for learning and, when appropriate, for speaking up and voicing an opinion. Ask a group of people who have done all three. Maybe a few hands go up.
I used to have a record with a symphonic piece that sounds like a town meeting (Ives or Copland, but I can't find it). That used to be a regular thing. People would meet in the city park and have a town meeting. Now that only happens on TV with big name politicians. Community participation used to be a thing. Now it is history. Could this be the root of our undoing? I dare say, very possibly.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I mean it doesn't just happen with politicians on tv though, as much as I love to be cynical on the issue as well.
Democracy is a participatory sport. People who weren't quite involved but consider themselves "informed" voters are figuring that out to some degree right now. The more I see the lower-to-middle social income brackets become disaffected (deservedly so), I recognize my own privilege and just try to make the time to jump in the ring and help inform those people that they do in fact have power.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
I’ll have to disagree. When half our staff meetings and nearly all of our diversity trainings (of which we’ve had several since the beginning of the school year) the leaders of the meetings mention republicans and conservatives are racist, they become silent on the topic. Not all obviously. But rather than be labeled a racist for simply being conservative, it’s easier to not engage in the conversation in the work place. Thats not to say there aren’t silent or shy Biden voters too.
Everyone will have anecdotal incidents like what you are describing. But there is just no statistical evidence to prove that there is a significant amount that will swing an election. This was the case in 2016 and 2018... and all indicators appear 2020 is no different.
Bigger question I have is why are the leaders of your company calling republicans and conservatives racist in your meetings? That seems pretty inappropriate.
is this the shy trump voter people keep saying exists? couldn't get past the first few paragraphs. paywall kicked in.
The silent Trump voter definitely exists. Half my work meetings someone brings up how Republicans and those who vote for trump are racist. That’s basically what our “diversity trainings” are, It shouldn’t be any surprise that Trump voters are often silent when in mixed company. Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
There are no significant amounts of shy trump voters. This has been debunked numerous times. Biden does just as well with online polls as he does with over the phone polls. If you're "shy" you probably are more likely to lie to a pollster over the phone as opposed to a more anonymous online survey. If there was a more significant difference between these kinds of polls, that would lend credence to this mythology but there isn't much at all.
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
I’ll have to disagree. When half our staff meetings and nearly all of our diversity trainings (of which we’ve had several since the beginning of the school year) the leaders of the meetings mention republicans and conservatives are racist, they become silent on the topic. Not all obviously. But rather than be labeled a racist for simply being conservative, it’s easier to not engage in the conversation in the work place. Thats not to say there aren’t silent or shy Biden voters too.
Everyone will have anecdotal incidents like what you are describing. But there is just no statistical evidence to prove that there is a significant amount that will swing an election. This was the case in 2016 and 2018... and all indicators appear 2020 is no different.
Bigger question I have is why are the leaders of your company calling republicans and conservatives racist in your meetings? That seems pretty inappropriate.
totally
"Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk" -EV 8/14/93
Comments
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
-EV 8/14/93
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
So Biden's not up 10, he's up 7 or 8. Yeah, got it.
The Economist gives Biden a 92% chance of winning, by the way...
BE HONEST NOW!
-EV 8/14/93
-EV 8/14/93
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
and we have the means to hurt the peacock by watching other stations from here on out.....
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
No. I really cannot watch either of them. I cringe at Biden. He just seems soooooo old. And Trump, well, he's Trump. I voted, so I'll do something less agonizing at that time. (If I was a Nielson household, I'd put Biden on and leave the room)
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Now what I don’t agree with is that transferring into a poll. I don’t see the silent supporter not being honest in a poll.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
And just anecdotally, I have never met a shy Trump voter. Every one I've met is excited to put their Trump fanaticism in your face. If anything, I would bet there are more shy Biden voters out there.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Its difficult to say precisely why pollsters had trouble estimating trumps 2016 performance but it’s easy to say hundreds and hundreds of polls were dead wrong. Either it’s because they are not able to properly sample or republicans are very good at suppressing the vote.
own your vote!
-EV 8/14/93
Thats not to say there aren’t silent or shy Biden voters too.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Democracy is a participatory sport. People who weren't quite involved but consider themselves "informed" voters are figuring that out to some degree right now. The more I see the lower-to-middle social income brackets become disaffected (deservedly so), I recognize my own privilege and just try to make the time to jump in the ring and help inform those people that they do in fact have power.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/
Bigger question I have is why are the leaders of your company calling republicans and conservatives racist in your meetings? That seems pretty inappropriate.
-EV 8/14/93