The coronavirus

Spunkie

Canada's monthly modelling update 



And if we keep variants out...


https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/mathematical-modelling.html

With variants, in BC the only way we can tighten up is close business and school... anyhow back to enjoying the brief lull between waves. Cheers.

lastexitlondon

Well I survived  what I can only describe  as hell for 36 hours. I decided  to not take paracetamol so my body could fully mount an immune  response.  
I have other issues so it was rough but I would still do same again . So many people suffering we must all do this together. 

lastexitlondon

oftenreading said:

Preliminary data suggest that one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech may provide as much protection as two. If this bears out it is a major leap forward, as it will allow us to vaccinate far more people more quickly. Perhaps we then come back later and give everyone a second dose.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-experts-studying-evidence-suggesting-one-dose-of-pfizers-covid/

There is compelling evidence that a single dose of COVID-19 vaccines may provide almost as much protection as giving two doses, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer said Thursday.

Dr. Howard Njoo said the advisory committee of federal and provincial public health officers is having an active discussion about whether Canada would be better served to delay the second doses of vaccines in a bid to give protection to more vulnerable people quicker.

“These are what I would call early data in terms of a vaccine effectiveness or studies,” he said. “And the indications are that there’s a good level of protection after just one dose.”

Canada intends to vaccinate three million people with two doses by the end of March.

More than 990,000 Canadians have received at least one dose, and about one-third of those have also received their second doses.

Quebec’s immunization committee went as far Thursday as to recommend nobody get a second dose until a first dose is injected into everyone in six high-risk groups, including people over 70, health-care workers, and people who live in long-term care homes and retirement residences.

The committee reported that single doses have been 80 per cent effective at preventing COVID-19 so far among long-term care residents and health workers who were vaccinated.

Questions about delaying the second doses arose almost as soon as vaccinations began in December, prompting a whirlwind of debate among scientists about the ethics of “going off label.”

Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna’s vaccines – the two currently authorized in Canada – were tested by giving two doses, 21 days and 28 days apart respectively.

But Dr. Danuta Skowronski, the epidemiology lead for influenza and emerging respiratory pathogens at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, said data show two weeks after one dose of either vaccine, the protection against COVID-19 was almost as good as what was found after two doses.

Skowronski and Dr. Dr. Gaston De Serres from the Institut national de sante publique du Quebec made the case in a letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine this week.

Moderna reported itself that two weeks after one dose, those who got the vaccine were 92 per cent less likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms.

Pfizer and BioNTech, whose vaccine uses similar genetic technology to Moderna’s, said their vaccine was 52 per cent effective after one dose, but 94.5 per cent effective after two.

Skowronski said Pfizer started measuring illness as soon as the injections were given, which she said is “unreasonable.”

“It’s basic vaccinology that you don’t expect the vaccine to activate the immune system instantaneously,” she said, in an interview with The Canadian Press.

Skowronski said if you wait two weeks to start counting infections, there were 92 per cent fewer infections of COVID-19 among those who got one dose of the vaccine, compared with those who got the placebo.

At that level of protection, she said “we need to get a first dose into our priority populations, and the most vulnerable of those at greatest risk of severe outcomes and the precious resource of our front-line health-care workers.”

She said the second dose should eventually be given but said there isn’t a maximum time she would put on how long to wait.

Pfizer has issued caution about adjusting the dosing schedule but said the decision to do so rests with local authorities.

“We at Pfizer believe that it is critical for health authorities to carry on surveillance on implemented alternative dosing schedules to ensure that vaccines provide the maximum possible protection,” the company’s statement reads.

Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization said in January that the recommended schedule should be followed wherever possible but that delaying a second dose up to six weeks could be beneficial, particularly with a shortage of supplies and a fast-spreading virus.

Skowronski said waiting six weeks instead of three or four for a second dose won’t do much.

“That’s not maximizing coverage that we need to undertake with the scarcity of the vaccine that is available now.”

Several provinces have been delaying the second doses a couple of weeks, particularly as deliveries of both Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine and Moderna’s slowed to a crawl in mid-January.

Those delays appear to be over. Pfizer says it will ship nearly three million doses over the next six weeks, and Moderna promises to ship more than 1.4 million.

With the two authorized vaccines, and the two-dose schedule followed, Canada expects to vaccinate 14.5 million people by the end of June and all Canadians who want to be immunized by the end of September.

A new vaccination schedule issued Thursday shows if the other three vaccines currently being reviewed get approved by Health Canada, 24.5 million Canadians could be vaccinated before Canada Day.

Great news. In UK we have done this  . Well streched out the doses and it covers double obviously  .  Game changer. Esspecaily in large populations

lastexitlondon

GlowGirl said:

My parents just got their second shot today. Their health has been my main worry since this whole thing started. So, I am very relieved. I hope to be able to visit them in mid March for my mom’s birthday. It has been so long since I have seen them. 

Great to hear that some of the worry can finally  abate

GlowGirl

lastexitlondon said:

GlowGirl said:

My parents just got their second shot today. Their health has been my main worry since this whole thing started. So, I am very relieved. I hope to be able to visit them in mid March for my mom’s birthday. It has been so long since I have seen them. 

Great to hear that some of the worry can finally  abate

Thanks. For you too. I am sorry you had such bad side effects but now you know your immune system can handle it. I hope you feel better with the second shot. 

oftenreading

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/health/covid-vaccine-single-dose.html?referringSource=articleShare

Preliminary data suggests that people who have had covid-19 should still get vaccinated, but one dose may be enough. A single dose of vaccine seems to markedly increase the circulating antibodies in a way that may be more effective than the two doses in a person who has never had COVID. 

jpgoegel

I spent the day helping people 75+ schedule their second appointment, after getting their first one in a super vaccine site that was just set up this week.   It was so nice to see so many people happy and what I presume was a large weight lifted off them. 

oftenreading

jpgoegel said:

I spent the day helping people 75+ schedule their second appointment, after getting their first one in a super vaccine site that was just set up this week.   It was so nice to see so many people happy and what I presume was a large weight lifted off them. 

A very worthwhile thing to do. It sounds as if the vaccination scheduling process is a real bugbear in some states. 

oftenreading

A study in Israel suggests that use of hypromellose (hydroxypropyl methylcellulose) in nasal spray form can significantly reduce the risk of contracting covid, as long as you use the spray as described, which I think is every five hours. It was studied in an ultra orthodox population who continued mass gatherings without masks, etc. 

It’s a semi-synthetic cellulose powder that forms a gel like layer in the nose to block the ability of the viral particles to enter the cells. 

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-100328/v2

23scidoo

23scidoo

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-vatican/no-jab-no-job-vatican-gets-tough-with-covid-anti-vaxxers-idINKBN2AI1IC

lastexit78

I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?page=1

PJNB

lastexit78 said:

I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?page=1

All this talk about masking up and distancing until the end of the year is really not going to fly well if this date is true. The goal posts constantly moving on what herd immunity is and what is needed to ease restrictions is getting to be ridiculous imo. We were always told that we are doing this to protect the old and vulnerable, to keep the healthcare system from collapsing due to so many hospitalizations from the virus. Now it is all about cases and whether they are sick or not does not matter which is wrong imo. Also I get we need to be aware of the variants as they come along but the news cycle of doom and gloom every time one pops up with no solid info behind the variant is tiring and dangerous. 

This last paragraph says it all. There is a fine line that needs to be walked here but it needs to be done and just keeping everything shut down is not the way to do it. 

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

PJNB

Look at these number comparisons for NJ. Those death rate drop offs are amazing to see.  

Jan 5
NJ Daily Numbers:

+5400 new PCR cases (499636 total)
+138 deaths (17361 total)

Rate of transmission is 0.94
3702 people in hospitals
679 in ICU
481 on ventilators

Feb 21
NJ Daily Numbers:

+1814 new PCR cases (682746 total)
+25 deaths (20569 total)

Total vaccinations 1605744
Rate of transmission is 0.8
2065 people in hospitals
434 in ICU
288 on ventilators

lastexit78

PJNB said:

lastexit78 said:

I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?page=1

All this talk about masking up and distancing until the end of the year is really not going to fly well if this date is true. The goal posts constantly moving on what herd immunity is and what is needed to ease restrictions is getting to be ridiculous imo. We were always told that we are doing this to protect the old and vulnerable, to keep the healthcare system from collapsing due to so many hospitalizations from the virus. Now it is all about cases and whether they are sick or not does not matter which is wrong imo. Also I get we need to be aware of the variants as they come along but the news cycle of doom and gloom every time one pops up with no solid info behind the variant is tiring and dangerous. 

This last paragraph says it all. There is a fine line that needs to be walked here but it needs to be done and just keeping everything shut down is not the way to do it. 

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Exactly, we are now a year in, have multiple vaccines that are virtually 100% effective at preventing serious illness, even from the variants. Yet as you say the goal posts move almost daily. Fauci recently said a family fully vaccinated family should be fine to interact normally (hug without masks) but yet as a society we are stuck in this disfigured state for another 18 months? It’s going to fascinating to see where we are once the vaccine is available to everyone and hospital numbers are a fraction of where they are now. A point I believe we reach in late summer. I see things getting ugly even before that point if restrictions are not loosened, kids in school, etc. But only if the data proves it is safe to begin a true recovery. Problem being the data is coming from a hundred different places at this point. Even scientists are becoming fractured into different camps, just look at the debate on holding back the 2nd vaccine dose. I feel stupid even debating this right now because I don’t believe we are as close as April. But I do believe there is a serious reckoning coming at some point this year.

hedonist

23scidoo said:

How can that be?

oftenreading

23scidoo said:

What is being implied by this expiry date, as far as you know?

I have read that the Greek officials have said they are being "very conservative" in estimating the length of immunity provided by vaccines when issuing these "certificates". Based on what you've posted, "conservative" seems to be months.

HughFreakingDillon

had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

fuck me. 

23scidoo

hedonist said:

23scidoo said:

How can that be?

oftenreading said:

23scidoo said:

What is being implied by this expiry date, as far as you know?

I have read that the Greek officials have said they are being "very conservative" in estimating the length of immunity provided by vaccines when issuing these "certificates". Based on what you've posted, "conservative" seems to be months.

I just hope it's not true..

Poncier

HughFreakingDillon said:

had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

fuck me. 

That seems crazy given that by September pretty much everyone who wants to should be vaccinated.