The coronavirus

Halifax2TheMax

F Me In The Brain said:

I forgot Mitch Crappile was from there as well.
Truly remarkable that probably the worst two Senators are from the same state.

I don’t know, Lindsey Flimsy Flip Flop Faloozy Graham and Tom “I’m a Warrior, Hear Me Roar” Cotton are pretty high up on the deplorable list.

bbiggs

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

pjl44

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

oftenreading

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

I hope that's just the visual and not the whole plan. Presumably they have laid out the "additional industries"?

Who the hell came up with "downside reversion"?

I like the little flags, though. Makes it seem like we're at mini-golf. 

pjl44

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

I hope that's just the visual and not the whole plan. Presumably they have laid out the "additional industries"?

Who the hell came up with "downside reversion"?

I like the little flags, though. Makes it seem like we're at mini-golf. 

These were all my questions and....no. TBD I guess. Here's the link. I keep clicking links, thinking I'm missing something. 

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/reopening-four-phase-approach

bbiggs

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

Not even outdoor seating from what I’ve read.  Here is our plan. No definitive timelines. 

bbiggs

^ Both state’s plans look very ambiguous.  On another note, IL’s healthcare system remained far from overwhelmed, luckily.  When this started, we converted McCormick Place (convention center) into a makeshift hospital. Spent $65MM to do so.  They are now closing it after it treated “less than 3 dozen” patients total.  I don’t fault the decision to be over-prepared with McCormick Place, but the current 5 phase plan has the potential to do more harm than good. 

F Me In The Brain

I was meant to fly into Chicago this coming Saturday for the National Restaurant Association show at McCormick...until Wednesday.  Largest event of the year for restaurants, usually a hell of a show.  
Wonder if they will even have it next year, and if so, how many restaurants they will have lost from 2019 to 2021.  
Crazy times.

bbiggs

^ Restaurants are getting crushed. I wonder what percentage will end up folding from this. Restaurant owners put in so much blood, sweat and tears to their business, it is such a shame to see this happen. 

oftenreading

bbiggs said:

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

Not even outdoor seating from what I’ve read.  Here is our plan. No definitive timelines. 

Where are you now - phase 2? Any indication as to when Phase 3 will start?

In BC, we never stopped manufacturing, agriculture, and the like. After next weekend we are essentially moving into the rest of your Phase 3, along with some restaurant seating, either outside or inside, with spacing and other safety requirements. 

At least there are some details here in this plan, and I appreciate that their grammar is correct - "10 people or fewer". They did not fall into the "10 items or less" trap. 

oftenreading

bbiggs said:

^ Both state’s plans look very ambiguous.  On another note, IL’s healthcare system remained far from overwhelmed, luckily.  When this started, we converted McCormick Place (convention center) into a makeshift hospital. Spent $65MM to do so.  They are now closing it after it treated “less than 3 dozen” patients total.  I don’t fault the decision to be over-prepared with McCormick Place, but the current 5 phase plan has the potential to do more harm than good. 

The initial lockdown reaction and preparation for potentially overwhelming numbers of infected individuals was correct. Now we know more, and can ease things up. 

SHZA

pjl44 said:

SHZA said:

pjl44 said:

Good question and the answer is....about what most of us are thinking, no?

https://twitter.com/robbysoave/status/1260252836245524483?s=19

Clearly much more likely than not, but not quite very likely hmm 

Right? Just hedged enough to not really make you feel terribly confident either way.

I guess there's no way to know for sure if a vaccine will work until it actually works. And I expect he's hesitant to overpromise. So, his willingness to say significantly more than likely is certainly encouraging. 

bbiggs

oftenreading said:

bbiggs said:

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

The IL phased re-opening plan currently shows dining in restaurants on track for June 26 at the earliest. This is going to further cripple our restaurant industry and force many to shut doors permanently. What a mess. 

Not even outdoor seating? At least you got some details. Our plan in MA was crafted by the underpants gnomes.

Not even outdoor seating from what I’ve read.  Here is our plan. No definitive timelines. 

Where are you now - phase 2? Any indication as to when Phase 3 will start?

In BC, we never stopped manufacturing, agriculture, and the like. After next weekend we are essentially moving into the rest of your Phase 3, along with some restaurant seating, either outside or inside, with spacing and other safety requirements. 

At least there are some details here in this plan, and I appreciate that their grammar is correct - "10 people or fewer". They did not fall into the "10 items or less" trap. 

Yes. We are currently in phase 2 (northeast IL).  Other counties in central and southern IL might have moved to phase 3, as they are more rural overall, but I’m not certain. The initial indication was phase 3 would be around June 1, but the models recently pushed our expected peak from mid-May to mid-June, so it is all up in the air. 

bbiggs

oftenreading said:

bbiggs said:

^ Both state’s plans look very ambiguous.  On another note, IL’s healthcare system remained far from overwhelmed, luckily.  When this started, we converted McCormick Place (convention center) into a makeshift hospital. Spent $65MM to do so.  They are now closing it after it treated “less than 3 dozen” patients total.  I don’t fault the decision to be over-prepared with McCormick Place, but the current 5 phase plan has the potential to do more harm than good. 

The initial lockdown reaction and preparation for potentially overwhelming numbers of infected individuals was correct. Now we know more, and can ease things up. 

Absolutely. I was a huge supporter of converting McCormick Place and applaud the decision. It turns out we didn’t need it, which is the best possible outcome.  I do feel our governor is teetering on being too conservative with some decisions at this stage though, knowing that we didn’t end up overwhelming our hospitals.  

DewieCox

Could move to Phase 3 in 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, the mayor of Chicago headlined a graduation ceremony for 88 Chicago FD.

brianlux

Right or wrong (who the f really knows anyway?) this opening up thing is like walking out on a tight rope to me.  My legs are getting shaky. 

Our county's "opening up" is accelerating more than some parts of California.  Is this the right thing to do?  I don't think so, but what do I know?   Sure seems premature to me.  Fauci and Osterholm are both predicting a surge in case with these loosening restrictions.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't?  I don't know.  Does anybody?   Damn, I don't know shit.

But these guys do:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

"The officials — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — predicted dire consequences if the nation reopened its economy too soon, noting that the United States still lacked critical testing capacity and the ability to trace the contacts of those infected.

If economic interests were allowed to override public health concerns, Dr. Fauci warned, “there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” That could result not only in “some suffering and death that could be avoided,” he said, “but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”

pjl44

brianlux said:

Right or wrong (who the f really knows anyway?) this opening up thing is like walking out on a tight rope to me.  My legs are getting shaky. 

Our county's "opening up" is accelerating more than some parts of California.  Is this the right thing to do?  I don't think so, but what do I know?   Sure seems premature to me.  Fauci and Osterholm are both predicting a surge in case with these loosening restrictions.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't?  I don't know.  Does anybody?   Damn, I don't know shit.

But these guys do:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

"The officials — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — predicted dire consequences if the nation reopened its economy too soon, noting that the United States still lacked critical testing capacity and the ability to trace the contacts of those infected.

If economic interests were allowed to override public health concerns, Dr. Fauci warned, “there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” That could result not only in “some suffering and death that could be avoided,” he said, “but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”

From what I can tell, Dr. Fauci has done an excellent job in his role and has been one of the few voices at the federal level who has demonstrated real leadership. But incentives are a real thing. His legacy is ultimately going to hang strictly on covid-related outcomes. His incentive is to be as conservative as possible without having the populace revolt. If there are spikes in suicide, overdose, domestic violence, behavioral health issue prevalence, progression of chronic illness, homelessness, home foreclosures, etc. - all the ill effects of keeping people locked down - it won't ultimately fall on him. He certainly won't be tasked with steering out of any of those potential crises. Which is to say Dr. Fauci is a very important voice in the room but there are other important voices that need to be considered, too. My concern is that I'm not sure we're hearing those voices.

Lerxst1992

bbiggs said:

pjl44 said:

bbiggs said:

Osterholm again predicting that 60-70% of the entire planet gets infected with Covid-19.  I'd much rather be in the 30-40% camp, but ominous predictions like this really make me wonder if all of this effort is simply prolonging the inevitable. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/covid-19-expert-coronavirus-will-rage-until-it-infects-everybody-it-possibly-can/ar-BB13VCoX?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

Vaccine(s) and/or highly effective treatment(s) are, I think, the biggest wildcards in this whole thing. If we wind up with one or both by the fall, the low end looks like reality and we'll feel pretty great about lockdown efforts. If we're looking back 18 months from now and neither materialized, we're probably looking at the higher end and wondering if we ultimately would have been better off accepting more risk. This is what drives me nuts about people angrily arguing for a particular approach - each one comes with risk and trade-offs. I don't see an objectively correct (or even most likely correct) path.

I could not agree more.  I certainly understand, and support, the need for the initial lockdowns to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system.  The harsh reality is that we cannot keep the economy locked down for much longer.  It is simply unsustainable.  If this thing continues to decimate the global population for 12-18 months, we're going to need to open up and simply accept the risk.  No one knows the right answer.  I certainly don't. 

The harsh reality might be to observe whether the lockdown caused economic calamity or whether it was a worldwide pandemic. I am not sure why many assume it was the lockdown.

Are we assuming people are not smart enough to recognize risk and act accordingly whether or not there is a “lockdown.”

March data clearly suggests restaurants were nearly 100% empty before they were ordered closed.

Lerxst1992

pjl44 said:

brianlux said:

Right or wrong (who the f really knows anyway?) this opening up thing is like walking out on a tight rope to me.  My legs are getting shaky. 

Our county's "opening up" is accelerating more than some parts of California.  Is this the right thing to do?  I don't think so, but what do I know?   Sure seems premature to me.  Fauci and Osterholm are both predicting a surge in case with these loosening restrictions.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't?  I don't know.  Does anybody?   Damn, I don't know shit.

But these guys do:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

"The officials — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — predicted dire consequences if the nation reopened its economy too soon, noting that the United States still lacked critical testing capacity and the ability to trace the contacts of those infected.

If economic interests were allowed to override public health concerns, Dr. Fauci warned, “there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” That could result not only in “some suffering and death that could be avoided,” he said, “but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”

From what I can tell, Dr. Fauci has done an excellent job in his role and has been one of the few voices at the federal level who has demonstrated real leadership. But incentives are a real thing. His legacy is ultimately going to hang strictly on covid-related outcomes. His incentive is to be as conservative as possible without having the populace revolt. If there are spikes in suicide, overdose, domestic violence, behavioral health issue prevalence, progression of chronic illness, homelessness, home foreclosures, etc. - all the ill effects of keeping people locked down - it won't ultimately fall on him. He certainly won't be tasked with steering out of any of those potential crises. Which is to say Dr. Fauci is a very important voice in the room but there are other important voices that need to be considered, too. My concern is that I'm not sure we're hearing those voices.

In a deadly health crisis we should listen to the real estate business man who was handed his fortune by his dad or the sheep obeying his every whim?

I am perplexed why anyone thinks lifting a lockdown can solve economic calamity caused by a “lockdown” when in reality the truth is that it was caused by a deadly illness easily transferable.

pjl44

Lerxst1992 said:

pjl44 said:

brianlux said:

Right or wrong (who the f really knows anyway?) this opening up thing is like walking out on a tight rope to me.  My legs are getting shaky. 

Our county's "opening up" is accelerating more than some parts of California.  Is this the right thing to do?  I don't think so, but what do I know?   Sure seems premature to me.  Fauci and Osterholm are both predicting a surge in case with these loosening restrictions.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't?  I don't know.  Does anybody?   Damn, I don't know shit.

But these guys do:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

"The officials — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — predicted dire consequences if the nation reopened its economy too soon, noting that the United States still lacked critical testing capacity and the ability to trace the contacts of those infected.

If economic interests were allowed to override public health concerns, Dr. Fauci warned, “there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.” That could result not only in “some suffering and death that could be avoided,” he said, “but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”

From what I can tell, Dr. Fauci has done an excellent job in his role and has been one of the few voices at the federal level who has demonstrated real leadership. But incentives are a real thing. His legacy is ultimately going to hang strictly on covid-related outcomes. His incentive is to be as conservative as possible without having the populace revolt. If there are spikes in suicide, overdose, domestic violence, behavioral health issue prevalence, progression of chronic illness, homelessness, home foreclosures, etc. - all the ill effects of keeping people locked down - it won't ultimately fall on him. He certainly won't be tasked with steering out of any of those potential crises. Which is to say Dr. Fauci is a very important voice in the room but there are other important voices that need to be considered, too. My concern is that I'm not sure we're hearing those voices.

In a deadly health crisis we should listen to the real estate business man who was handed his fortune by his dad or the sheep obeying his every whim?

I am perplexed why anyone thinks lifting a lockdown can solve economic calamity caused by a “lockdown” when in reality the truth is that it was caused by a deadly illness easily transferable.

We should definitely not listen to Trump and your second point is fair but doesn't apply universally. People are certainly not going to be piling into restaurants right now, but how many small businesses can open with similar safety guidelines to grocery stores and Target? You're not going to solve a calamity, but you can ease the descent. Matter of degrees.