there is no impossible outcome with a lottery, nothing is guaranteed even at 99% odds, and I'm sure those odds went down just minutes before the closing. 1%=100 at 10,000 ticket allocation, if the odds went to 80 or 75% it would be even more.
I estimate the demand for any type of seating is more than the allocated seats available. This is why I believe they do not go with everyone that put in for GA only or BA as all the GA would be gone on the first draw.
all the winner emails went out which really gives people hope, but it takes time to go to the next draw and again until all the tickets are gone, then the non-winner emails go out. people are understanably devastated as so much hype about 99% BA choice you will get tickets no matter what.
It is a lottery, 50/50 your name will be drawn for the seats you requested.
I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion there's a 50% chance your name gets drawn. It would seem if you have 99% chance of getting tickets than there's probably a better than 50% chance of you getting your name drawn?
just my opinion of the years of reading, participating and learning from the lottery system.
I don't believe the 99% possibility of ticket award is related to my estimate of 50% chance your name will be drawn at all. I see it as IF your name is drawn from the hat, you have a 99% of winning tickets and 1% of not winning tickets.
So if there are 1000 names in a hat, what are the chances your name will be drawn? I don't know statistics, so I think 50/50 that my name will be drawn.
You answered it right there. If the odds are at 99%, the odds of you getting selected are 99% assuming there are no issues with your submission, not 50%.
did you phrase this correctly? the odds of getting TICKETS are 99%, we don't know the odds of actually being drawn because we do not know how many people put in. To me the 99% indicates that the demand for tickets is more than the amount of tickets.
The "odds" shown should be used to give us an idea of the demand for any given show. It's a lottery, some will get picked some will not.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
2000- Atlanta, GA: New Orleans, LA: Memphis, TN: Nashville, TN
2003- Raleigh, NC: Charlotte, NC: Atlanta, GA
2004- Asheville, NC (hometown show)
2006- Cincinnati, OH
2008- Columbia, SC
2009- Chicago, IL x 2 / Ed Vedder- Atlanta, GA x 2
2010- Bristow, VA
2011- Alpine Valley, WI (PJ20) x 2 / Ed Vedder- Chicago, IL
2012- Atlanta, GA
2013- Charlotte, NC
2014- Cincinnati, OH
2015- New York, NY
2016- Greenville, SC: Hampton, VA:: Columbia, SC: Raleigh, NC : Lexington, KY: Philly, PA 2: (Wrigley) Chicago, IL x 2 (holy shit): Temple of the Dog- Philly, PA
there is no impossible outcome with a lottery, nothing is guaranteed even at 99% odds, and I'm sure those odds went down just minutes before the closing. 1%=100 at 10,000 ticket allocation, if the odds went to 80 or 75% it would be even more.
I estimate the demand for any type of seating is more than the allocated seats available. This is why I believe they do not go with everyone that put in for GA only or BA as all the GA would be gone on the first draw.
all the winner emails went out which really gives people hope, but it takes time to go to the next draw and again until all the tickets are gone, then the non-winner emails go out. people are understanably devastated as so much hype about 99% BA choice you will get tickets no matter what.
It is a lottery, 50/50 your name will be drawn for the seats you requested.
I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion there's a 50% chance your name gets drawn. It would seem if you have 99% chance of getting tickets than there's probably a better than 50% chance of you getting your name drawn?
just my opinion of the years of reading, participating and learning from the lottery system.
I don't believe the 99% possibility of ticket award is related to my estimate of 50% chance your name will be drawn at all. I see it as IF your name is drawn from the hat, you have a 99% of winning tickets and 1% of not winning tickets.
So if there are 1000 names in a hat, what are the chances your name will be drawn? I don't know statistics, so I think 50/50 that my name will be drawn.
Someone just now just below your comment won all 4 Canada shows.
Please explain the statistical proof how this is possible when at least 2 fans have been denied "due to demand" with their top 2 priority picks?
2014: Moline, IL 2015: EV Solo (Metro Chicago) 2016: Philadelphia PA 1, Philadelphia PA 2, New York City NY- MSG 1, EV Solo (Metro Chicago), Boston MA Fenway 1, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2 2017: EV Ohana Fest (Dana Point, CA), EV/Pete Townshend Quadrophenia Rosemont, IL 2018: Seattle WA 1, Seattle WA 2, Missoula MT, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2, Boston MA Fenway 1, Boston MA Fenway 2 2019: EV Tempe, AZ 2020: PPD 2022: EV & Earthlings Chicago 1 & 2, Phoenix AZ, Camden NJ, Nashville TN, St. Louis MO 2023: EV Tempe, AZ, St Paul, MN 2, Chicago 1 & 2 2024: Noblesville, IN, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
amethgr8 you are looking at this wrong. Lets end it here.
99% indicates that there are more tickets then people looking for them hence the reason people think they are guaranteed tickets 98% or lower indicates that only that number of people who put in for tickets regardless off priority are getting tickets.
If there are 100 tickets and the odds are 98% 2 people are missing out.
The only real question anyone should have with a 99% odds is is it really 99% or is it still a placeholder for the 100%
there is no impossible outcome with a lottery, nothing is guaranteed even at 99% odds, and I'm sure those odds went down just minutes before the closing. 1%=100 at 10,000 ticket allocation, if the odds went to 80 or 75% it would be even more.
I estimate the demand for any type of seating is more than the allocated seats available. This is why I believe they do not go with everyone that put in for GA only or BA as all the GA would be gone on the first draw.
all the winner emails went out which really gives people hope, but it takes time to go to the next draw and again until all the tickets are gone, then the non-winner emails go out. people are understanably devastated as so much hype about 99% BA choice you will get tickets no matter what.
It is a lottery, 50/50 your name will be drawn for the seats you requested.
I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion there's a 50% chance your name gets drawn. It would seem if you have 99% chance of getting tickets than there's probably a better than 50% chance of you getting your name drawn?
just my opinion of the years of reading, participating and learning from the lottery system.
I don't believe the 99% possibility of ticket award is related to my estimate of 50% chance your name will be drawn at all. I see it as IF your name is drawn from the hat, you have a 99% of winning tickets and 1% of not winning tickets.
So if there are 1000 names in a hat, what are the chances your name will be drawn? I don't know statistics, so I think 50/50 that my name will be drawn.
You answered it right there. If the odds are at 99%, the odds of you getting selected are 99% assuming there are no issues with your submission, not 50%.
did you phrase this correctly? the odds of getting TICKETS are 99%, we don't know the odds of actually being drawn because we do not know how many people put in. To me the 99% indicates that the demand for tickets is more than the amount of tickets.
The "odds" shown should be used to give us an idea of the demand for any given show. It's a lottery, some will get picked some will not.
To simplify: The odds are based on the number of entries received to date for that show's particular lottery. So if they are at 99%, then likely everyone who entered gets selected (the 99% is a default, though its possible that 1% of folks don't get picked.) Generally if a show is showing 99% odds, it currently has less lottery requests than available tickets. The lottery part you mention of some getting drawn some not is base on the posted odd...so if they are 99% that's the chance you get drawn, if the show 50% then its a 50/50 chance
there is no impossible outcome with a lottery, nothing is guaranteed even at 99% odds, and I'm sure those odds went down just minutes before the closing. 1%=100 at 10,000 ticket allocation, if the odds went to 80 or 75% it would be even more.
I estimate the demand for any type of seating is more than the allocated seats available. This is why I believe they do not go with everyone that put in for GA only or BA as all the GA would be gone on the first draw.
all the winner emails went out which really gives people hope, but it takes time to go to the next draw and again until all the tickets are gone, then the non-winner emails go out. people are understanably devastated as so much hype about 99% BA choice you will get tickets no matter what.
It is a lottery, 50/50 your name will be drawn for the seats you requested.
I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion there's a 50% chance your name gets drawn. It would seem if you have 99% chance of getting tickets than there's probably a better than 50% chance of you getting your name drawn?
just my opinion of the years of reading, participating and learning from the lottery system.
I don't believe the 99% possibility of ticket award is related to my estimate of 50% chance your name will be drawn at all. I see it as IF your name is drawn from the hat, you have a 99% of winning tickets and 1% of not winning tickets.
So if there are 1000 names in a hat, what are the chances your name will be drawn? I don't know statistics, so I think 50/50 that my name will be drawn.
You answered it right there. If the odds are at 99%, the odds of you getting selected are 99% assuming there are no issues with your submission, not 50%.
did you phrase this correctly? the odds of getting TICKETS are 99%, we don't know the odds of actually being drawn because we do not know how many people put in. To me the 99% indicates that the demand for tickets is more than the amount of tickets.
The "odds" shown should be used to give us an idea of the demand for any given show. It's a lottery, some will get picked some will not.
The 99% means there is that chance of getting RS if you picked that or BA. From what I saw yesterday most people who picked RS or BA on their #1 got tix. I even got RS on my #2 pick. There seemed to be more tickets this tour.
amethgr8 you are looking at this wrong. Lets end it here.
99% indicates that there are more tickets then people looking for them hence the reason people think they are guaranteed tickets 98% or lower indicates that only that number of people who put in for tickets regardless off priority are getting tickets.
If there are 100 tickets and the odds are 98% 2 people are missing out.
The only real question anyone should have with a 99% odds is is it really 99% or is it still a placeholder for the 100%
I see your point, but disagree. I content there will always be more demand that available tickets.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
amethgr8 you are looking at this wrong. Lets end it here.
99% indicates that there are more tickets then people looking for them hence the reason people think they are guaranteed tickets 98% or lower indicates that only that number of people who put in for tickets regardless off priority are getting tickets.
If there are 100 tickets and the odds are 98% 2 people are missing out.
The only real question anyone should have with a 99% odds is is it really 99% or is it still a placeholder for the 100%
I see your point, but disagree. I content there will always be more demand that available tickets.
Not in every city, and especially not this tour as 10 club has negotiated more tickets with Ticketmaster.
All the best to those who entered for Denver, LA 1 & LA 2, Oakland 1 & Oakland 2 10club tickets.
so I'm guessing that the lottery will be held today for these concerts. cool. i wanna book my hotels ASAP. lol
I would book them now with free cancellation as an option. I booked mine prior to even finding out if I got tickets.
Absolutely the only way to go....you wait for people to get confirmed tix and the prices will inflate immediately....Marriott has free cancellation up to 24 hours in advance.
A lot of us booked hotels weeks ago when the dates were "guessed and confirmed" in the rumor thread. Booked refundable everything. Phoenix for example, hotels went up $200 closes to arena
Wow! that's a big price increase
38 concerts and counting "I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine"
amethgr8 you are looking at this wrong. Lets end it here.
99% indicates that there are more tickets then people looking for them hence the reason people think they are guaranteed tickets 98% or lower indicates that only that number of people who put in for tickets regardless off priority are getting tickets.
If there are 100 tickets and the odds are 98% 2 people are missing out.
The only real question anyone should have with a 99% odds is is it really 99% or is it still a placeholder for the 100%
I am sure for all kinds of reasons they could never say 100%
...got a mind full of questions and a teacher in my soul...
Honolulu Dec 2, 2006
Seattle Sept 21 & 22 2009
Portland Sept 26, 2009
Madison Square Garden May 20 & 21, 2010
Bridge School Oct 23 & 24, 2010
Alpine Valley - PJ20 Sept 3 & 4, 2011
DeLuna Sept 21, 2012
Atlanta Sept 22, 2012
Missoula Sept 30, 2012
Wrigley Field July 19, 2013
Portland Nov 29, 2013
Spokane Nov 30, 2013
Vancouver Dec 4, 2013
Seattle Dec 6, 2013
Tulsa Oct 8, 2014
All of this odds arguing is just fuel to remove them next tour. I would take them off if I were 10c. It’s generous to even show it.
Its nice to know. I could be wrong, but my guess is we'll learn that those who missed out had some user error (wrong email listed, used wife's TM account so names didn't match or something). It sucks, I feel for anyone who missed out because they over looked 1 rule.
Comments
2010: Newark 5/18 MSG 5/20-21 2011: PJ20 9/3-4 2012: Made In America 9/2
2013: Brooklyn 10/18-19 Philly 10/21-22 Hartford 10/25 2014: ACL10/12
2015: NYC 9/23 2016: Tampa 4/11 Philly 4/28-29 MSG 5/1-2 Fenway 8/5+8/7
2017: RRHoF 4/7 2018: Fenway 9/2+9/4 2021: Sea Hear Now 9/18
2022: MSG 9/11 2024: MSG 9/3-4 Philly 9/7+9/9 Fenway 9/15+9/17
The "odds" shown should be used to give us an idea of the demand for any given show. It's a lottery, some will get picked some will not.
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
interesting. been a while since I have seen a PJ show with an opener.
livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=446
1995- New Orleans, LA : New Orleans, LA
1996- Charleston, SC
1998- Atlanta, GA: Birmingham, AL: Greenville, SC: Knoxville, TN
2000- Atlanta, GA: New Orleans, LA: Memphis, TN: Nashville, TN
2003- Raleigh, NC: Charlotte, NC: Atlanta, GA
2004- Asheville, NC (hometown show)
2006- Cincinnati, OH
2008- Columbia, SC
2009- Chicago, IL x 2 / Ed Vedder- Atlanta, GA x 2
2010- Bristow, VA
2011- Alpine Valley, WI (PJ20) x 2 / Ed Vedder- Chicago, IL
2012- Atlanta, GA
2013- Charlotte, NC
2014- Cincinnati, OH
2015- New York, NY
2016- Greenville, SC: Hampton, VA:: Columbia, SC: Raleigh, NC : Lexington, KY: Philly, PA 2: (Wrigley) Chicago, IL x 2 (holy shit): Temple of the Dog- Philly, PA
2017- ED VED- Louisville, KY
2018- Chicago, IL x2, Boston, MA x2
2020- Nashville, TN
2022- Smashville
2023- Austin, TX x2
2024- Baltimore
Someone just now just below your comment won all 4 Canada shows.
Please explain the statistical proof how this is possible when at least 2 fans have been denied "due to demand" with their top 2 priority picks?
How does 4th priority beat 2nd priority for BA?
2015: EV Solo (Metro Chicago)
2016: Philadelphia PA 1, Philadelphia PA 2, New York City NY- MSG 1, EV Solo (Metro Chicago), Boston MA Fenway 1, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
2017: EV Ohana Fest (Dana Point, CA), EV/Pete Townshend Quadrophenia Rosemont, IL
2018: Seattle WA 1, Seattle WA 2, Missoula MT, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2, Boston MA Fenway 1, Boston MA Fenway 2
2019: EV Tempe, AZ
2020: PPD
2022: EV & Earthlings Chicago 1 & 2, Phoenix AZ, Camden NJ, Nashville TN, St. Louis MO
2023: EV Tempe, AZ, St Paul, MN 2, Chicago 1 & 2
2024: Noblesville, IN, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
99% indicates that there are more tickets then people looking for them hence the reason people think they are guaranteed tickets
98% or lower indicates that only that number of people who put in for tickets regardless off priority are getting tickets.
If there are 100 tickets and the odds are 98% 2 people are missing out.
The only real question anyone should have with a 99% odds is is it really 99% or is it still a placeholder for the 100%
Generally if a show is showing 99% odds, it currently has less lottery requests than available tickets.
The lottery part you mention of some getting drawn some not is base on the posted odd...so if they are 99% that's the chance you get drawn, if the show 50% then its a 50/50 chance
2006-East Rutherford
2008-West Palm Beach
2009- Philadelphia
2016- Fort Lauderdale and Miami
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
"I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine"
"I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine"
Didn't want to complicate the answer with big words.
Seattle Sept 21 & 22 2009
Portland Sept 26, 2009
Madison Square Garden May 20 & 21, 2010
Bridge School Oct 23 & 24, 2010
Alpine Valley - PJ20 Sept 3 & 4, 2011
DeLuna Sept 21, 2012
Atlanta Sept 22, 2012
Missoula Sept 30, 2012
Wrigley Field July 19, 2013
Portland Nov 29, 2013
Spokane Nov 30, 2013
Vancouver Dec 4, 2013
Seattle Dec 6, 2013
Tulsa Oct 8, 2014
Edit: was my only show, chose BA. So I’m not at all surprised, just very happy!
It sucks, I feel for anyone who missed out because they over looked 1 rule.
1 down, 7 to go.
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