2020 United States & Canada Tour Rumors

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Comments

  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,486
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
  • 100 Pacer100 Pacer Toronto, ON Posts: 8,946
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    To quote the 10C from Newsletter #8: "Please understand we have a lot of members and it is very hard to please everybody. If you are one of those unhappy people...please call 1-900-IDN-TCAR."

    "Me knowing the truth, I can not concur."

    1996: Toronto - 1998: Chicago, Montreal, Barrie - 2000: Montreal, Toronto - 2002: Seattle X2 (Key Arena) - 2003: Cleveland, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle (Benaroya Hall) - 2004: Reading, Toledo, Grand Rapids - 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Quebec City - 2006: Toronto X2, Albany, Hartford, Grand Rapids, Cleveland - 2007: Chicago (Vic Theatre) - 2008: NYC X2, Hartford, Mansfield X2 - 2009: Toronto, Chicago X2, Seattle X2, Philadelphia X4 - 2010: Columbus, Noblesville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford - 2011: Montreal, Toronto X2, Ottawa, Hamilton - 2012: Missoula - 2013: London, Chicago, Buffalo, Hartford - 2014: Detroit, Moline - 2015: NYC (Global Citizen Festival) - 2016: Greenville, Toronto X2, Chicago 1 - 2017: Brooklyn (RRHOF Induction) - 2018: Chicago 1, Boston 1 - 2022: Fresno, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, NYC, Camden - 2023: St. Paul X2, Austin X2 - 2024: Vancouver X2, Portland, Sacramento, Missoula, Noblesville, Philadelphia X2, Baltimore
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,486
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,176
    And more than half of them are scalpers LOL
  • jdizzle8291jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    JimmyV said:
    bgirl59 said:
    JimmyV said:
    If it was only Boston getting skipped, I could see it being because they just played four Fenway shows in three years. But no Boston, no Hartford, no Philadelphia and only one show in NYC? Gotta think something big is planned for the fall.
     JimmyV,  it would be nice to know NOW, if I can skip NYC because there will be a fall show in Philly.....when will we know about any fall shows? or is it somewhere in the 168 pages above?? :rofl:

    There has yet to be anything solid concerning N.A. in the fall. Just those who feel like they have to play New England and Philly in the fall.
    I wouldn't say they have to do anything. It's just that, given their history, not doing so would be strange. 

    For sure. Sorry - I didn't mean that as a dig to anyone. I guess I was trying to say that same thing in a different way. I, too, think it would be strange if they don't play Boston/Philly/only 1 NYC show in a new album year, especially.
    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • 100 Pacer100 Pacer Toronto, ON Posts: 8,946
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    To quote the 10C from Newsletter #8: "Please understand we have a lot of members and it is very hard to please everybody. If you are one of those unhappy people...please call 1-900-IDN-TCAR."

    "Me knowing the truth, I can not concur."

    1996: Toronto - 1998: Chicago, Montreal, Barrie - 2000: Montreal, Toronto - 2002: Seattle X2 (Key Arena) - 2003: Cleveland, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle (Benaroya Hall) - 2004: Reading, Toledo, Grand Rapids - 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Quebec City - 2006: Toronto X2, Albany, Hartford, Grand Rapids, Cleveland - 2007: Chicago (Vic Theatre) - 2008: NYC X2, Hartford, Mansfield X2 - 2009: Toronto, Chicago X2, Seattle X2, Philadelphia X4 - 2010: Columbus, Noblesville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford - 2011: Montreal, Toronto X2, Ottawa, Hamilton - 2012: Missoula - 2013: London, Chicago, Buffalo, Hartford - 2014: Detroit, Moline - 2015: NYC (Global Citizen Festival) - 2016: Greenville, Toronto X2, Chicago 1 - 2017: Brooklyn (RRHOF Induction) - 2018: Chicago 1, Boston 1 - 2022: Fresno, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, NYC, Camden - 2023: St. Paul X2, Austin X2 - 2024: Vancouver X2, Portland, Sacramento, Missoula, Noblesville, Philadelphia X2, Baltimore
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,183
    JimmyV said:
    bgirl59 said:
    JimmyV said:
    If it was only Boston getting skipped, I could see it being because they just played four Fenway shows in three years. But no Boston, no Hartford, no Philadelphia and only one show in NYC? Gotta think something big is planned for the fall.
     JimmyV,  it would be nice to know NOW, if I can skip NYC because there will be a fall show in Philly.....when will we know about any fall shows? or is it somewhere in the 168 pages above?? :rofl:

    There has yet to be anything solid concerning N.A. in the fall. Just those who feel like they have to play New England and Philly in the fall.
    I wouldn't say they have to do anything. It's just that, given their history, not doing so would be strange. 

    For sure. Sorry - I didn't mean that as a dig to anyone. I guess I was trying to say that same thing in a different way. I, too, think it would be strange if they don't play Boston/Philly/only 1 NYC show in a new album year, especially.
    No worries, I figured that is what you meant.  =)

    If it's ballparks then that will mean late summer/early fall. Those announcements would need to come soon.  
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,486
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,352
    dlymnfld said:
    TA243471 said:
    My wife just got #703***
    wow...my 427K doesn't look so bad
    I used to be so upset I let my 93xx number lapse and was stuck with a shitty 218xxx number. Now my number is gold . 
    yeah I had a much better number at one point....maybe closer to your 200K number and I accidentally let it lapse due to an email change
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 6,499
    I’m still thinking we get an announcement on the 6th or 7th with the lottery starting that day  and the general public on sale on the 13th

    If not then, the 10th is a great time for an official reminder.
    I don't know that we'll get the reminder. I mean, we just got a reminder less than 60 days ago. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lost In OhioLost In Ohio Posts: 6,938
    It's sad how many people can't read the directions and make mistakes and get things they didn't want....
    And screw over fans who desperately wanted those tickets.



    Exactly. You know it's gonna happen within 24 hours of the lotto window closing:

    "Help! I didn't want both LA nights and the San Diego night! My boss says I can't take that much time off work...I thought I could only win one night. If I email 10C, do you think they could help??"

    Meanwhile, 15 threads: "ISO SD GA or seats."
    Presidential Advice from President-Elect Mike McCready: "Are you getting something out of this all encompassing trip?"
  • Lost In OhioLost In Ohio Posts: 6,938
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.

    Either way, I like my 279XXX...I'm hoping for another Columbus or Cincinnati show, especially if it's the same tour as multiple stops in Philly, NYC and Boston.
    Presidential Advice from President-Elect Mike McCready: "Are you getting something out of this all encompassing trip?"
  • tschavtschav Posts: 2,861
    edited January 2020
    If anything, they’ll announce the presale without a need to tell people to renew their membership. Helps avoid last second 10c account signups for scalping.

    Still thinking a presale announcement after the weekend (1/6-1/7), lottery drawn by the end of the week, and public sale the week after.
  • Brane_of_JFKBrane_of_JFK Maryland Posts: 1,901
    dlymnfld said:
    TA243471 said:
    My wife just got #703***
    wow...my 427K doesn't look so bad
    I used to be so upset I let my 93xx number lapse and was stuck with a shitty 218xxx number. Now my number is gold . 
    Same boat. Had 75xxx and mistakenly let it slip. Still 169xxx though...
  • IndifferenceIndifference Posts: 2,692
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
    Here is an article citing @200K in 2013.  

    https://www.inc.com/3-superfan-strategies-from-pearl-jam.html

    SHOW COUNT: (159) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=103, US=118, CAN=15, Europe=20 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
    Mexico=1, Colombia=1 

    Upcoming:   Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2


  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,953
    tschav said:
    If anything, they’ll announce the presale without a need to tell people to renew their membership. Helps avoid last second 10c account signups for scalping.

    Right. The announcement will for example be on 1/6 and say lottery is open to all 10c members whose membership was active as of 1/05/20.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • pjl44 said:

    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
    I've had 3 different numbers because I'm bad at renewing things. So, I'd agree with you.
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 10,781
    It's sad how many people can't read the directions and make mistakes and get things they didn't want....
    And screw over fans who desperately wanted those tickets.



    Exactly. You know it's gonna happen within 24 hours of the lotto window closing:

    "Help! I didn't want both LA nights and the San Diego night! My boss says I can't take that much time off work...I thought I could only win one night. If I email 10C, do you think they could help??"

    Meanwhile, 15 threads: "ISO SD GA or seats."
    Don't forget all the song request threads
  • 100 Pacer100 Pacer Toronto, ON Posts: 8,946
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
    Here is an article citing @200K in 2013.  

    https://www.inc.com/3-superfan-strategies-from-pearl-jam.html
    Nice find - that’s the article I was thinking of. I was close.
    To quote the 10C from Newsletter #8: "Please understand we have a lot of members and it is very hard to please everybody. If you are one of those unhappy people...please call 1-900-IDN-TCAR."

    "Me knowing the truth, I can not concur."

    1996: Toronto - 1998: Chicago, Montreal, Barrie - 2000: Montreal, Toronto - 2002: Seattle X2 (Key Arena) - 2003: Cleveland, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle (Benaroya Hall) - 2004: Reading, Toledo, Grand Rapids - 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Quebec City - 2006: Toronto X2, Albany, Hartford, Grand Rapids, Cleveland - 2007: Chicago (Vic Theatre) - 2008: NYC X2, Hartford, Mansfield X2 - 2009: Toronto, Chicago X2, Seattle X2, Philadelphia X4 - 2010: Columbus, Noblesville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford - 2011: Montreal, Toronto X2, Ottawa, Hamilton - 2012: Missoula - 2013: London, Chicago, Buffalo, Hartford - 2014: Detroit, Moline - 2015: NYC (Global Citizen Festival) - 2016: Greenville, Toronto X2, Chicago 1 - 2017: Brooklyn (RRHOF Induction) - 2018: Chicago 1, Boston 1 - 2022: Fresno, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, NYC, Camden - 2023: St. Paul X2, Austin X2 - 2024: Vancouver X2, Portland, Sacramento, Missoula, Noblesville, Philadelphia X2, Baltimore
  • "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,176
    Have they ever come to NYC just to do a television show with no other performance? I feel like they have. They wouldn't do that to us would they?
  • Get_Right said:
    Have they ever come to NYC just to do a television show with no other performance? I feel like they have. They wouldn't do that to us would they?
    2011
  • 100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
    Here is an article citing @200K in 2013.  

    https://www.inc.com/3-superfan-strategies-from-pearl-jam.html
    Nice find - that’s the article I was thinking of. I was close.
     I remember the one u taking about. He was talkig about how  we don't see ten club member as a number and active member are around 250k

    My guess now is there are around 300k now active members 
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Get_Right said:
    Have they ever come to NYC just to do a television show with no other performance? I feel like they have. They wouldn't do that to us would they?
    2011, Jimmy fallow show. Played first time ever ole, first time ever cover pink Floyd mother and played all night. I was at the studio 
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,775
    edited January 2020
    One of my favorite shows that I've been to (so everyone don't attack and say it's not as great as (blank) or (blank) was better set list.)
    Remember...THE BEST SHOW IS THE ONE YOU'RE AT!!
  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,176
    Get_Right said:
    Have they ever come to NYC just to do a television show with no other performance? I feel like they have. They wouldn't do that to us would they?
    2011, Jimmy fallow show. Played first time ever ole, first time ever cover pink Floyd mother and played all night. I was at the studio 
    Remember that for sure.  Could not forget you in the stands!  So hopefully that is not the plan for 2020.
  • bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

    If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

    For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  
    Boston (4/10/94), Hartford (10/2/96), Barre (8/22/98), Hartford (9/13/98), Mansfield (9/15/98 + 9/16/98), Mansfield (8/29/00 + 8/30/00), Mansfield (7/2/03 + 7/11/03), Boston (9/28/04), Hartford (5/13/06), Boston (5/24/06 + 5/25/06), Hartford (6/27/08), Mansfield (6/28/08 + 6/30/08), Philadelphia (10/31/09), Hartford (5/15/10), Worcester (10/15/13 + 10/16/13), Hartford (10/25/13), New York (5/1/16), Boston (8/5/16 + 8/7/16), Boston (9/2/18 + 9/4/18)
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,486
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    100 Pacer said:
    pjl44 said:
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    There aren't hundreds of thousands of active member numbers 
    Yes there are.
    Is this a semantic argument? I realize what member number we're up to, but there aren't hundreds of thousands of active members.
    I believe Tim mentioned ~250,000 active memberships a decade or so ago give or take? My guess is between 250,000-350,000 active memberships today.
    I'd love to see a source on that. I thought the number quoted was much, much lower but am just going on memory and could certainly be wrong. It's hard for me to believe that half or so of every membership purchased over 25-30 years has been regularly renewed. I'm sure the auto-renewals help with that, but still.
    Here is an article citing @200K in 2013.  

    https://www.inc.com/3-superfan-strategies-from-pearl-jam.html
    Interesting! I stand corrected.
  • Get_Right said:
    Get_Right said:
    Have they ever come to NYC just to do a television show with no other performance? I feel like they have. They wouldn't do that to us would they?
    2011, Jimmy fallow show. Played first time ever ole, first time ever cover pink Floyd mother and played all night. I was at the studio 
    Remember that for sure.  Could not forget you in the stands!  So hopefully that is not the plan for 2020.
    It's not the plan, no
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,775
    bgirl59 said:
    Brisk. said:
    how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?
    I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

    .That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

    NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

    A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.
    Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows
      Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

    My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

    Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

    If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

    tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.


    I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

    If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

    For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  
    YES!! That's why I keep telling people...If you REALLY want a show in a hard to get city,  put it as your first choice and don't worry about the others just yet. 
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