Russia's Influence On The American Election
Comments
-
Here we go again. Another thread about to get locked.0
-
The Juggler said:
Wow. So I hurt your feelings and you go crying to the moderators? Is this a joke?my2hands said:The Juggler said:
Oh boy. Based on your analysis of the midterms and also of the 2016 election, polling is not your forte. I'm not sure what your forte is but it's definitely not polling.my2hands said:And has just about a 45% approval rating...
Obama 3rd year ranged from 40-46 throughout the year............
He's currently sitting at a 42.6 average on 538. Obama was at 47.7 this time in his term. In Obama's third year, he ranged from where Trump is at now (Obama's bottom/one of Trump's best in a long while to 51%). So........no. 40-46 is not even close.
Only two president's in history have had a lower approval rating than Trump at this point in their terms (and again--this is after Trump's numbers have come up quite a bit since he shut the government down over nothing).
The thing every other president, including Obama, have in common that Trump doesn't? They've all enjoyed ceiling's over 60%. Do you know what Trump's ceiling is, ye of all polling knowledge? 47.8%- the day after he was inaugurated. Yes, that number is embarrassingly low and bodes horribly for a recumbent running for re-election (if he's able to be on the ballot).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
edit--I was gonna put some things in bold and then I just thought: "Hey Juggler---just go for it! BOLD EVERYTHING! MAKE A SPLASH! Felt good)this is the culture of passive aggressiveness, condescension, and dismissiveness being allowed here, as long as it's anti-trump....
i'm going to point this out each and every time
Your numbers are wrong. I called you out on them.
You need to grow up.why so personal? why so angry?
my numbers were not wrong, as i showed....
since you cant talk to me without being personal, passive aggressive, dismissive, and condescending i think it would be best if you didn't engage with me.... maybe when you can do so without being rude, but until then its probably best.... thanks
0 -
dignin said:Here we go again. Another thread about to get locked.
like i said.... wont be because of me.... I've been nothing but respectful and polite today and asked people to engage with me respectfully and not make it personal... if they have a problem with that, don't know what to tell youand if people don't get Blues Brothers references, well, sucks to be them lol
0 -
Your feelings seem to be hurt because you keep losing arguments on here. I get it, I think. But it's no excuse to cry to the moderators left and right. I'm sure they're tired of dealing with stuff like this.my2hands said:The Juggler said:
Wow. So I hurt your feelings and you go crying to the moderators? Is this a joke?my2hands said:The Juggler said:
Oh boy. Based on your analysis of the midterms and also of the 2016 election, polling is not your forte. I'm not sure what your forte is but it's definitely not polling.my2hands said:And has just about a 45% approval rating...
Obama 3rd year ranged from 40-46 throughout the year............
He's currently sitting at a 42.6 average on 538. Obama was at 47.7 this time in his term. In Obama's third year, he ranged from where Trump is at now (Obama's bottom/one of Trump's best in a long while to 51%). So........no. 40-46 is not even close.
Only two president's in history have had a lower approval rating than Trump at this point in their terms (and again--this is after Trump's numbers have come up quite a bit since he shut the government down over nothing).
The thing every other president, including Obama, have in common that Trump doesn't? They've all enjoyed ceiling's over 60%. Do you know what Trump's ceiling is, ye of all polling knowledge? 47.8%- the day after he was inaugurated. Yes, that number is embarrassingly low and bodes horribly for a recumbent running for re-election (if he's able to be on the ballot).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
edit--I was gonna put some things in bold and then I just thought: "Hey Juggler---just go for it! BOLD EVERYTHING! MAKE A SPLASH! Felt good)this is the culture of passive aggressiveness, condescension, and dismissiveness being allowed here, as long as it's anti-trump....
i'm going to point this out each and every time
Your numbers are wrong. I called you out on them.
You need to grow up.why so personal? why so angry?
my numbers were not wrong, as i showed....
since you cant talk to me without being personal, passive aggressive, dismissive, and condescending i think it would be best if you didn't engage with me.... maybe when you can do so without being rude, but until then its probably best.... thanks
Your numbers were wrong. I corrected them. If you felt they were still right, you could have responded as such. Instead you chose to cry to Kat because you couldn't get your way. There are grown up ways and childish ways of dealing with things. You're choosing the latter time and time again.
PM if if you'd like to discuss further. I'd rather not have you get another thread shut down. Thanks.www.myspace.com0 -
my2hands said:
ok, i'll waste my time.....
I said he was at about 45%.... you point out he is at about 43%............. really? got nothing better to do? what's the range of error on polling? for the record he is at 43.2 with likely voters
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
I said Obama was 40-46 in year 3... Gallup average shows Obama average approval rating as follows... Quarter 9 46.7%.... Quarter 10 46.8%... Quarter 11 41%... Quarter 12 43.3%............... sooooooooo, yeah..... go lecture Gallup........ (side note - Obama was in the mid 40's pretty much all of 2012 leading up to the election)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/178736/obama-job-approval-averages-23rd-quarter.aspx
don't care about ceilings.... I am well aware Trump isn't very popular, thanks for the breaking news lol.......... but guess what my friend, he was never popular and was BEHIND ALL THE POLLS IN 2016....... AND WON...... remember that, ye poll master? lol
also.... his numbers are certainly not good.... but they are very stable, which could be a potential problem..... also, after the honeymoon period, Obamas numbers were in the 40's for most of his Presidency... keep in mind these numbers are without an opponent, and I think Trump thrives with an opponent... so I tread with caution into 2020, while you show the same dismissive hubris you did in 2016
now are we talking about Matt Forte, Kia Forte, or my forte in the bedroom?
i responded.... you are just too busy getting angry and personal....0 -
You lost this argument the moment you cried to @kat first.my2hands said:my2hands said:ok, i'll waste my time.....
I said he was at about 45%.... you point out he is at about 43%............. really? got nothing better to do? what's the range of error on polling? for the record he is at 43.2 with likely voters
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
I said Obama was 40-46 in year 3... Gallup average shows Obama average approval rating as follows... Quarter 9 46.7%.... Quarter 10 46.8%... Quarter 11 41%... Quarter 12 43.3%............... sooooooooo, yeah..... go lecture Gallup........ (side note - Obama was in the mid 40's pretty much all of 2012 leading up to the election)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/178736/obama-job-approval-averages-23rd-quarter.aspx
don't care about ceilings.... I am well aware Trump isn't very popular, thanks for the breaking news lol.......... but guess what my friend, he was never popular and was BEHIND ALL THE POLLS IN 2016....... AND WON...... remember that, ye poll master? lol
also.... his numbers are certainly not good.... but they are very stable, which could be a potential problem..... also, after the honeymoon period, Obamas numbers were in the 40's for most of his Presidency... keep in mind these numbers are without an opponent, and I think Trump thrives with an opponent... so I tread with caution into 2020, while you show the same dismissive hubris you did in 2016
now are we talking about Matt Forte, Kia Forte, or my forte in the bedroom?
i responded.... you are just too busy getting angry and personal....
Therefore a rebuttal, that somehow completely ignores the lowest ceiling of any president in the history of polling (by over 15%), is disregarded. Choose the grown up route next time. Have a good day.www.myspace.com0 -
Poor Kat is going to have like 15 notifications because we somehow can't stop alerting her. Ridiculous.
FYI, the low ceiling argument is real and a good one. Opinions of Trump are extraordinarily hardened. The key, as always, will be turnout. If someone too far left is D nominee, then there is a chance that moderate D's or never Trumpers just stay home. I don't see them going out and voting for Trump.
Remember that Trump won Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney lost Wisconsin with.0 -
mrussel1 said:Poor Kat is going to have like 15 notifications because we somehow can't stop alerting her. Ridiculous.
FYI, the low ceiling argument is real and a good one. Opinions of Trump are extraordinarily hardened. The key, as always, will be turnout. If someone too far left is D nominee, then there is a chance that moderate D's or never Trumpers just stay home. I don't see them going out and voting for Trump.
Remember that Trump won Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney lost Wisconsin with.
i'm sure kat can handle it...Trump had a low ceiling in November 2016... and won... some seem to forget that.... some also seem to confuse caution for support or hoping he wins... i'm not saying he is waltzing towards re-election, or in a dominant position heading into 2020.... i'm saying proceed with caution and that i see the same hubris we all had in 2016... Obama was in the 40's almost all of 2011 and 2012 and frankly most of his 2 terms... this is the new partisan reality...
2020 is still very winnable for Trump, and i for one do not want that to happen... so people can feel free to call him an idiot, his voters Cleetus, assume its in the bag, that Bobby Mueller is going to save the day, and that it's all over but the champagne popping... that wont be me...
i'm more progressive than 90% of the posters here, and i don't think it is even close... but its funny when you try to engage in a different way by not mocking his voters, or disagree on why he won in 2016, or that he could win in 2020, or try to rattle the echo chamber in here a bit my progressive friends become dismissive, elitist, and condescending... the passive aggressiveness is stifling.... when frankly, I'm further to the left of pretty much all of them
the truth is most of them don't really care.... its become some perverted form of entertainment for them... politics as entertainment has reached critical mass in this country... but whatever, pass the AOC coloring book this way
0 -
Right the ceiling was low, so the solution was to suppress the vote. Stir up dissent with the Bernie voters, hammer Clinton. It wasn't about voting for Trump, it was about NOT voting for Clinton. And it worked, see my point about Wisconsin. That's exhibit A in my point.
Which is why I also say that the left runs a huge risk by nominating someone that is too far left, alienating the middle. They won't vote for Trump, they will just stay home.0 -
Sounds like simple campaign strategy to me...
I think it was about NAFTA, status quo, economic recovery not hitting main street, black voters staying home, and the candidate not campaigning in that area
But people can feel free to blame Bernie supporters for some reason, that's always been odd to me0 -
Whatever you feel the underlying reasons are, there's no arguing that turnout was depressed in some key states. So again, it gets into Trump's ceiling. You overcome that by keeping the other side home.my2hands said:Sounds like simple campaign strategy to me...
I think it was about NAFTA, status quo, economic recovery not hitting main street, black voters staying home, and the candidate not campaigning in that area
But people can feel free to blame Bernie supporters for some reason, that's always been odd to me0 -
I'm not arguing Trumps ceiling... although I'm not sure that matters....mrussel1 said:
Whatever you feel the underlying reasons are, there's no arguing that turnout was depressed in some key states. So again, it gets into Trump's ceiling. You overcome that by keeping the other side home.my2hands said:Sounds like simple campaign strategy to me...
I think it was about NAFTA, status quo, economic recovery not hitting main street, black voters staying home, and the candidate not campaigning in that area
But people can feel free to blame Bernie supporters for some reason, that's always been odd to me
Republicans still showed up for the most part... Democrats did not... the black vote in Milwaukee stayed home, plain and simple
It wasn't Bernie, or Russian tweets, or dirty tricks...
https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/why-did-wisconsin-see-its-lowest-presidential-election-voter-turnout/article_6dd2887f-e1fc-5ed8-a454-284d37204669.html
0 -
I think you're mixing outcomes and reason. Black vote stayed home is an outcome. I don't claim to know the reason why each individual decided to stay home, lowering the Democratic turnout in the city. I really doubt that it was NAFTA.my2hands said:
I'm not arguing Trumps ceiling... although I'm not sure that matters....mrussel1 said:
Whatever you feel the underlying reasons are, there's no arguing that turnout was depressed in some key states. So again, it gets into Trump's ceiling. You overcome that by keeping the other side home.my2hands said:Sounds like simple campaign strategy to me...
I think it was about NAFTA, status quo, economic recovery not hitting main street, black voters staying home, and the candidate not campaigning in that area
But people can feel free to blame Bernie supporters for some reason, that's always been odd to me
Republicans still showed up for the most part... Democrats did not... the black vote in Milwaukee stayed home, plain and simple
It wasn't Bernie, or Russian tweets, or dirty tricks...
https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/why-did-wisconsin-see-its-lowest-presidential-election-voter-turnout/article_6dd2887f-e1fc-5ed8-a454-284d37204669.html0 -
U.S. Cyber Command operation disrupted Internet access of Russian troll factory on day of 2018 midterms
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
Trump won't be happy to hear that.PJ_Soul said:U.S. Cyber Command operation disrupted Internet access of Russian troll factory on day of 2018 midterms
0 -
Correct as per usual, good sir.mrussel1 said:Right the ceiling was low, so the solution was to suppress the vote. Stir up dissent with the Bernie voters, hammer Clinton. It wasn't about voting for Trump, it was about NOT voting for Clinton. And it worked, see my point about Wisconsin. That's exhibit A in my point.
Which is why I also say that the left runs a huge risk by nominating someone that is too far left, alienating the middle. They won't vote for Trump, they will just stay home.
Nominating Bernie would be a disaster for the Dems.www.myspace.com0 -
This site will call your Republican Senators and complain to them... in Russian.
0 -
red hysteria
0
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.8K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110K The Porch
- 274 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.1K Flea Market
- 39.1K Lost Dogs
- 58.7K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.7K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help