Canadian Politics Redux

HughFreakingDillon

What an embarrassment for Freeland. 

dignin

I was not expecting it to be such a blowout.

I wish him luck.

mickeyrat

accurate?

https://www.threads.net/@guy_fawkes_news/post/DG_5gWVR8Ok?xmt=AQGzQY99H7q2O1Xy-V-P93Ts7zAXTDmSm5kOqp5z-4AA3g

“Using an unweighted, simple average of polls conducted by Pallas Data, the Angus Reid Institute and Léger (two of them) in the month of February, we get the Liberals and Conservatives tied nationally at 39% apiece. The NDP drops to just 10% while the Bloc also falls back in Quebec.”
(TheWrit)

Expect an election announcement from Carney before the end of the month.

Taking the regional numbers and plugging them into the seat projection model powering the Poll Tracker, we get this:

mickeyrat

Donald Trump’s unsettling and relentless insistence that Canada join the United States as its 51st state or face staggering tariffs has cracked the basis on which Canada’s Conservatives had built a double-digit lead in the polls https://econ.st/3F5M6tA

PJ_Soul

dignin said:

I was not expecting it to be such a blowout.

I wish him luck.

I was totally expecting that... i think I decided it would go that way when my whole conservative-voting family (I'm the black sheep, lol) talked about how they were going to vote for Carney in the next election over the Conservatives.

Original_Shifty

I don't think this is going to be another Kim Campbell lame duck party leader. Carney may not win the next election, but I don't think PP is going to run away with it like he would have with Trudeau at the helm of the Liberals.

jhager79

mickeyrat said:

accurate?

https://www.threads.net/@guy_fawkes_news/post/DG_5gWVR8Ok?xmt=AQGzQY99H7q2O1Xy-V-P93Ts7zAXTDmSm5kOqp5z-4AA3g

“Using an unweighted, simple average of polls conducted by Pallas Data, the Angus Reid Institute and Léger (two of them) in the month of February, we get the Liberals and Conservatives tied nationally at 39% apiece. The NDP drops to just 10% while the Bloc also falls back in Quebec.”
(TheWrit)

Expect an election announcement from Carney before the end of the month.

Taking the regional numbers and plugging them into the seat projection model powering the Poll Tracker, we get this:

338 Canada has PC at 39% and Liberals at 33% that’s as of today 
CBC has PC at 40.3% and Liberals at 30.8% as of March 5
PC’s had big lead more so on people being tired of Mr Trudeau than wanting Mr Poilivre as PM. I’d expect Mr Carney would prefer an election sooner rather than later while he has a higher approval rating as opposed to waiting and exposing to more scrutiny. Kim Campbell was leading polls in run up to election against Jean Chretien after replacing Brian Mulroney. Then again her biggest mistake may have been approving an ad that mocked Mr Chretiens partial facial paralysis.

DarthMaeglin

mickeyrat said:

Donald Trump’s unsettling and relentless insistence that Canada join the United States as its 51st state or face staggering tariffs has cracked the basis on which Canada’s Conservatives had built a double-digit lead in the polls https://econ.st/3F5M6tA

I think it has as much to do with closing up government while the Liberals chose a new leader taking all the wind out of the Conservatives’ sails. Trump has also basically delivered most press coverage to the Liberals with his chaos and them still officially forming our government.

Right now anything Poilievre says against the Liberals and Carney will get him called a traitor so he’s wisest keeping his mouth shut for the most part and let Carney’s lies keep getting exposed (although I doubt that will make any difference to Liberal voters).

PJ_Soul

PP is plainly an arrogant, rude person, and while he is almost utterly normal compared to Trump, he is still a HUGE fucking creepy asshole who isn't fit for diplomatic relations in terms of what I consider acceptable as a Canadian, plus I think he could decimated our healthcare system if given the time. I really hope that this whole tariff thing swings Canada back to the Libs now that the rabid anti-Trudeau crowd are satisfied with a leader change. I'm not holding my breath, but fingers crossed.

brianlux

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

HughFreakingDillon

DarthMaeglin said:

mickeyrat said:

Donald Trump’s unsettling and relentless insistence that Canada join the United States as its 51st state or face staggering tariffs has cracked the basis on which Canada’s Conservatives had built a double-digit lead in the polls https://econ.st/3F5M6tA

I think it has as much to do with closing up government while the Liberals chose a new leader taking all the wind out of the Conservatives’ sails. Trump has also basically delivered most press coverage to the Liberals with his chaos and them still officially forming our government.

Right now anything Poilievre says against the Liberals and Carney will get him called a traitor so he’s wisest keeping his mouth shut for the most part and let Carney’s lies keep getting exposed (although I doubt that will make any difference to Liberal voters).

Carney's lies? the dude was just chosen as leader and you're already calling him a liar?

HughFreakingDillon

PJ_Soul said:

dignin said:

I was not expecting it to be such a blowout.

I wish him luck.

I was totally expecting that... i think I decided it would go that way when my whole conservative-voting family (I'm the black sheep, lol) talked about how they were going to vote for Carney in the next election over the Conservatives.

I wasn't at all either. I knew Freeland was a longshot but that percentage to me was a shock. 

HughFreakingDillon

brianlux said:

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

 We don't have the same political divisiveness as the US. But Pierre is trying to make it so. It became more divisive during covid and the vaccine and convoy nonsense, and *some* would have you believe that Trudeau was the most divisive PM in the history of the world, but that's simply not true. He simply called out the idiots. Some consider that divisive. Pierre is a Trump Jr. He seeks to divide and conquer. Calling Canada "broken". Demonizing immigrants and "woke ideology". 

PJ_Soul

brianlux said:

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

Canada really isn't even close to the level of divisiveness that the US has... that would be pretty hard to get to. Obviously there is some, but I don't really consider it comparable, just because the US is such a shit show. And honestly, while this was truer 10 years ago, our right is still closer to the US's left than they are to the US's right at this point, which really sucks for you. :(

brianlux

HughFreakingDillon said:

brianlux said:

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

 We don't have the same political divisiveness as the US. But Pierre is trying to make it so. It became more divisive during covid and the vaccine and convoy nonsense, and *some* would have you believe that Trudeau was the most divisive PM in the history of the world, but that's simply not true. He simply called out the idiots. Some consider that divisive. Pierre is a Trump Jr. He seeks to divide and conquer. Calling Canada "broken". Demonizing immigrants and "woke ideology". 

Great, thanks for catching me up on some of this.

PJ_Soul said:

brianlux said:

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

Canada really isn't even close to the level of divisiveness that the US has... that would be pretty hard to get to. Obviously there is some, but I don't really consider it comparable, just because the US is such a shit show. And honestly, while this was truer 10 years ago, our right is still closer to the US's left than they are to the US's right at this point, which really sucks for you. :(

Good to know- I would not wish our divisiveness on anyone.  And sadly, though at it's worst now, it's part of our modern history.  You have a much more level and sane population.  I envy that.

DarthMaeglin

HughFreakingDillon said:

DarthMaeglin said:

mickeyrat said:

Donald Trump’s unsettling and relentless insistence that Canada join the United States as its 51st state or face staggering tariffs has cracked the basis on which Canada’s Conservatives had built a double-digit lead in the polls https://econ.st/3F5M6tA

I think it has as much to do with closing up government while the Liberals chose a new leader taking all the wind out of the Conservatives’ sails. Trump has also basically delivered most press coverage to the Liberals with his chaos and them still officially forming our government.

Right now anything Poilievre says against the Liberals and Carney will get him called a traitor so he’s wisest keeping his mouth shut for the most part and let Carney’s lies keep getting exposed (although I doubt that will make any difference to Liberal voters).

Carney's lies? the dude was just chosen as leader and you're already calling him a liar?

It’s already been documented in the press that he has a fluid relationship with facts.

He’s claimed credit for balancing the budget in the 90s as well as navigating us through the 2008 financial crisis. He did play a role, but not as large as he’s portraying.

 The clearest untruth is regarding the moving of Brookfield’s headquarters to New York. He says he had zero role in the decision but the facts (and his signature) put him on the board at the time the move was decided, regardless that the decision was implemented after he left the company.

 I also keep seeing headlines that he’s being less than transparent about his own finances.

Lerxst1992

PJ_Soul said:

brianlux said:

Let me get this strait, because I admit I am not as savvy about Canadian politics as I could (maybe even should, although I hate that word) be:  Carney is like our Biden or Harris and Poilievre is your Trump or Mike Johnson?

And you guys have the same strong political divisiveness in Canada as we do in the U.S.?

Canada really isn't even close to the level of divisiveness that the US has... that would be pretty hard to get to. Obviously there is some, but I don't really consider it comparable, just because the US is such a shit show. And honestly, while this was truer 10 years ago, our right is still closer to the US's left than they are to the US's right at this point, which really sucks for you. :(

Guess that famous politeness is done. Please stop defining America by one person. His current fight is about the border, but not the one everyone is talking about but the northern one of the continent that we share, and no one speaking honestly can claim Canada has kept its responsibility with defense of that border.

As far as economy and opportunity, the US is miles ahead. Let’s stop pretending otherwise. And in our politics, if we don’t like the winning party, we get to vote against them in a year and a half.

Original_Shifty

I think millions of voters who voted for Trump does not equal one person.

dignin

Post deleted. Please see the Posting Guidelines.

HughFreakingDillon

The alternative: 

https://cupe.ca/pierre-poilievre-it-banks-billionaires-and-big-polluters-not-you