The National Football League

The Juggler

Odds to win the 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver Broncos 11/4

Seattle Seahawks 11/4

San Francisco 49ers 7/1

New England Patriots 9/1

Carolina Panthers 10/1

Green Bay Packers 14/1

Cincinnati Bengals 16/1

Philadelphia Eagles 16/1

New Orleans Saints 22/1

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1

Indianapolis Colts 28/1

San Diego Chargers 40/1

SVRDhand13

The Juggler wrote:

Odds to win the 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver Broncos 11/4

Seattle Seahawks 11/4

San Francisco 49ers 7/1

New England Patriots 9/1

Carolina Panthers 10/1

Green Bay Packers 14/1

Cincinnati Bengals 16/1

Philadelphia Eagles 16/1

New Orleans Saints 22/1

Kansas City Chiefs 25/1

Indianapolis Colts 28/1

San Diego Chargers 40/1

I can see several of these teams winning- not just the bye teams. This will be a great playoffs.

Indifference71

So both the Bengals and Colts are in danger of having their games blacked out locally....a playoff game and they are struggling to sell out?!?!?!? I'm sorry, but if your city can't sell out a playoff game, then you don't deserve an NFL team. That is insane. I know the Bengals always struggle with this, but was shocked to hear about the Colts struggling too.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -saturday/

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... or-sunday/

The Juggler

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... -contender



Who will be this year's Ravens?
By John McTigue
ESPN Stats & Information

The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are the favorites to make Super Bowl XLVIII. Each team lost three games this season, won its conference and earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But how much does that No. 1 seed even mean anymore?

Playoff Win Percentage by Seed
Seed 1990-2004 2005-2012
No. 1 .686 .483
No. 2 .609 .500
No. 3 .474 .464
No. 4 .525 .576
No. 5 .268 .423
No. 6 .231 .533

When the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005 as the sixth seed in the AFC, a trend started in the NFL. The first 15 seasons of the 12-team NFL playoffs were dominated by the top two seeds in each conference, with those teams winning 13 of 15 Super Bowls, and accounting for 25 of the 30 Super Bowl appearances. Since then, a one or two seed has accounted for nine of 16 appearances with only two wins (2008 Steelers, 2009 Saints).

The wide-open nature of the playoffs -- and the NFL in general -- these days could see any team making a deep postseason run. However, some teams are more likely to do so than others, and a look into the numbers can give us an idea of who is primed to make such a run.

One of the key measures used here to determine this was expected points added (EPA). This is a measure of impact of every play on each team's potential points. When aggregated over the course of a game or season, EPA numbers show how much each unit (offense, defense, special teams) contributed to the team's final point margin.

The NFC

EPA For NFC Playoff Teams This Season
Seed Team Offense Defense Special Teams Total
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks 54.0 115.3 15.5 184.7
No. 2 Carolina Panthers 55.8 69.6 -5.0 120.3
No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles 114.7 -14.1 -36.9 63.7
No. 4 Green Bay Packers 71.6 -95.3 11.9 -11.8
No. 5 San Francisco 49ers 44.7 63.1 31.6 139.5
No. 6 New Orleans Saints 131.5 4.7 -26.9 109.3

The 49ers proved to be one of the most efficient teams in all three facets of the game this season, which makes them one on of the top choices to take down the Seahawks or Panthers. The 49ers' 139.5 overall EPA was third in the NFL this season, and was actually better than the 49ers' total from last season (122.0) when San Francisco made the Super Bowl.

The 49ers' offense rated as the worst of the NFC playoff teams, but the return of Michael Crabtree in Week 13 has had a big impact on the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick. Of the 49ers' 44.7 offensive expected points added this season, 28.7 came after Crabtree's return. Kaepernick completed 61.7 percent of his passes with Crabtree active this season, compared to 56.7 percent with him inactive.

The return of Crabtree wasn't the only wrinkle for an NFC playoff team this season, however.

Aside from the 49ers, there are several factors that point to the Eagles being the most dangerous team playing on wild card weekend. The Eagles went 7-1 over the last eight games of the season, committed a league-low five turnovers, and produced a 101.7 EPA on offense in that span. The Eagles' defense isn't as strong as the 49ers', Seahawks' or Panthers', but Nick Foles' efficiency, coupled with the NFL's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, make Philadelphia a top contender, regardless of seed.

The Packers and Saints also feature potent offenses, but each team has an Achilles' heel that should prevent a deep run.

Super Bowl Projections for NFC
Seed Team Chances
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks 23.7%
No. 2 Carolina Panthers 12.3%
No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles 2.0%
No. 4 Green Bay Packers 0.8%
No. 5 San Francisco 49ers 4.6%
No. 6 New Orleans Saints 3.4%
Source: numberFire

Aaron Rodgers' return makes the Packers' offense one of the best in the NFL, but the defense struggled with or without him. In Week 1 against the 49ers -- Green Bay's first playoff opponent -- Kaepernick threw for 412 yards, even without Crabtree.

As for the Saints, the team would have to win three road games to make the Super Bowl, and no matter what metric is looked at, the Saints aren't the same outside of New Orleans. Keeping with the EPA theme, the team has produced 142.1 expected points added at home, and minus-32.8 on the road.

The projections from numberFire.com agree with EPA, showing the 49ers as the low seed with the best chance to make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

The AFC

EPA For AFC Playoff Teams This Season
Seed Team Offense Defense Special Teams Total
No. 1 Denver Broncos 237.3 -22.1 -9.6 205.6
No. 2 New England Patriots 74.6 -8.0 38.6 105.2
No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals 36.4 88.4 -1.1 123.7
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts 83.0 -26.3 -1.1 55.6
No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs 31.1 46.1 45.8 123.0
No. 6 San Diego Chargers 149.6 -95.9 -4.5 49.3

The Broncos were the best team in terms of EPA this season, bolstered by an offense that was outperformed by only the 2007 Patriots (242.7 EPA) since the start of 2001.

However, the best way to slow an offense is with tough defense, and the Bengals have one of the best in the NFL. The Bengals' defense rated behind only the Seahawks' in EPA this season. The Bengals forced 31 turnovers (tied for third), allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt (second) and 4.7 yards per play (second). For Cincinnati to compete with the top teams, though, Andy Dalton will need to improve his play.

Dalton is 0-2 with no touchdown passes and four interceptions in his postseason career. His 19.8 QBR in the playoffs is worst of any quarterback with multiple starts since 2006.

There are signs that this season could be different. Dalton's 55.8 QBR was the best of his career, and the Bengals produced a higher EPA on offense than Dalton's previous two seasons combined (minus-16.5). Dalton's credentials also match those of Eli Manning in 2007, who also had turnover problems and who had also lost his first two postseason starts before leading the Giants to a Super Bowl victory.

The Chiefs finished just behind the Bengals in EPA this season, but Kansas City went 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record (beating a Michael Vick-led Eagles) and lost five of its last seven games as the competition improved. The Chiefs' defense posted a 98.3 defensive EPA in the first nine games of the season before rolling off a minus-52.9 rating the last seven games. Those struggles against good teams could prove too much to overcome for Kansas City.

Super Bowl Projections for AFC
Seed Team Chances
No. 1 Denver Broncos 34.4%
No. 2 New England Patriots 7.8%
No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals 2.9%
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts 2.4%
No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs 4.6%
No. 6 San Diego Chargers 0.9%
Source: numberFire

The real wild cards here are the Chargers and Colts. The Chargers had a tendency to play up or down to the level of their opponents this season, going 5-2 against teams that finished with winning records and 4-5 against teams .500 or worse, including losses to the 2-14 Texans and 3-13 Redskins. This is largely due to being a team that rates second in offensive EPA and 27th in defensive EPA.

The Colts are in a similar boat, beating the Broncos and the Seahawks this season, but that was back when Reggie Wayne was healthy and active. Since losing Wayne, the Colts have been blown out several times, and needed late-game heroics to defeat the Texans and Titans. The Colts finished with a 55.6 EPA overall, which is third worst among the playoff teams.

The projections from numberFire.com actually favor the Chiefs despite the late-season struggles. The Bengals project just slightly better than the Colts, but if Dalton improves, they could prove to be the most well-rounded AFC team.

SVRDhand13

Game of the weekend? I'm going with the obvious pick and saying Saints-Eagles will be highly entertaining.

JK_Livin

Indifference71 wrote:

So both the Bengals and Colts are in danger of having their games blacked out locally....a playoff game and they are struggling to sell out?!?!?!? I'm sorry, but if your city can't sell out a playoff game, then you don't deserve an NFL team. That is insane. I know the Bengals always struggle with this, but was shocked to hear about the Colts struggling too.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -saturday/

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... or-sunday/

I think the Packers are included in this list.

pjhawks

The Juggler wrote:

the chiefs' coach has a history of not being at his best in big games...i agree with what you're saying about the colts. but don't be surprised to see him drop alex smith drop back to pass 35+ times while forgetting about jamal charles for large chunks...a mismanagement of the clock at a crucial moment is likely too.

the Chiefs coach has the 2nd most playoff wins of any coach in the playoffs this year. I guess none of those 10 count to you though.

Jason P

I went on ticketmaster to see if any Colts tickets were available .... They wanted $350 for a single seat. :fp:

The Juggler

pjhawks wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

the chiefs' coach has a history of not being at his best in big games...i agree with what you're saying about the colts. but don't be surprised to see him drop alex smith drop back to pass 35+ times while forgetting about jamal charles for large chunks...a mismanagement of the clock at a crucial moment is likely too.

the Chiefs coach has the 2nd most playoff wins of any coach in the playoffs this year. I guess none of those 10 count to you though.

sure...but only 2 of them have occurred in the last 7 years. none in the last 4.

Indifference71

JK_Livin wrote:

Indifference71 wrote:

So both the Bengals and Colts are in danger of having their games blacked out locally....a playoff game and they are struggling to sell out?!?!?!? I'm sorry, but if your city can't sell out a playoff game, then you don't deserve an NFL team. That is insane. I know the Bengals always struggle with this, but was shocked to hear about the Colts struggling too.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -saturday/

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... or-sunday/

I think the Packers are included in this list.

Yeah, I saw that too. Crazy that 3 of the 4 game this weekend may be blacked out locally. I just don't get it.

The Juggler

green bay of all places too...don't all games sell out in green bay?

Indifference71

The Juggler wrote:

green bay of all places too...don't all games sell out in green bay?

Yeah they usually do. I know the season ticket waiting list is something insane like 40-50 years. People put their infants names on the list as soon as they are born. Crazy that they are struggling to sell out a playoff game.

Jason P

I'm I the only one that thinks it is nuts that a non-profit organization that makes billions of dollars is threatening to black-out a playoff game in Indy, a city where the taxpayers were forced to public finance over $650M of the cost to build the new stadium just because a couple of thousand of overpriced tickets are still on the market ... a week after Xmas?

Newch91

Jason P said:

I'm I the only one that thinks it is nuts that a non-profit organization that makes billions of dollars is threatening to black-out a playoff game in Indy, a city where the taxpayers were forced to public finance over $650M of the cost to build the new stadium just because a couple of thousand of overpriced tickets are still on the market ... a week after Xmas?

Wow. Just another reason the NFL is going down. How did Gooddell and those other morons get in charge of the league? It's the NFL, people will be watching.

The Waiting Trophy Man

I read that the league may consider reseeding the playoffs. I guess San Francisco has a better record than Green Bay, but the Packers have home field advantage because they won their division. And I think that's the way it should be. San Fran is a wildcard team. They didn't win their division. Therefore they should be going on the road.

And then I read they may expand the playoffs to include 14 teams. I hope not. It's perfect the way it is. I'm not sure how it would work with 14 teams, but it means that it'll be easier to make the playoffs and making the playoffs shouldn't be easy.

Indifference71

The Waiting Trophy Man said:

I read that the league may consider reseeding the playoffs. I guess San Francisco has a better record than Green Bay, but the Packers have home field advantage because they won their division. And I think that's the way it should be. San Fran is a wildcard team. They didn't win their division. Therefore they should be going on the road.

And then I read they may expand the playoffs to include 14 teams. I hope not. It's perfect the way it is. I'm not sure how it would work with 14 teams, but it means that it'll be easier to make the playoffs and making the playoffs shouldn't be easy.

Completely disagree about the division winner hosting a playoff game automatically. I really hope the NFL changes it. It's such bullshit when a team like the 49ers has to go on the road with a 12-4 record just because they happen to be in the best division in the league and didn't win the division. Just doesn't seem right that a team barely above .500 like GB best the giant advantage of hosting the game.

The Juggler

Newch91 said:

Jason P said:

I'm I the only one that thinks it is nuts that a non-profit organization that makes billions of dollars is threatening to black-out a playoff game in Indy, a city where the taxpayers were forced to public finance over $650M of the cost to build the new stadium just because a couple of thousand of overpriced tickets are still on the market ... a week after Xmas?

Wow. Just another reason the NFL is going down. How did Gooddell and those other morons get in charge of the league? It's the NFL, people will be watching.

haha...dude, it's been this way since the 1960's.

The Juggler

colts/pack are sellouts. bengals got another extension. some sponsor will pick up the tab though.

JK_Livin

Indifference71 said:

The Waiting Trophy Man said:

I read that the league may consider reseeding the playoffs. I guess San Francisco has a better record than Green Bay, but the Packers have home field advantage because they won their division. And I think that's the way it should be. San Fran is a wildcard team. They didn't win their division. Therefore they should be going on the road.

And then I read they may expand the playoffs to include 14 teams. I hope not. It's perfect the way it is. I'm not sure how it would work with 14 teams, but it means that it'll be easier to make the playoffs and making the playoffs shouldn't be easy.

Completely disagree about the division winner hosting a playoff game automatically. I really hope the NFL changes it. It's such bullshit when a team like the 49ers has to go on the road with a 12-4 record just because they happen to be in the best division in the league and didn't win the division. Just doesn't seem right that a team barely above .500 like GB best the giant advantage of hosting the game.

If you're not going to give a home game to a division winner then what's the point of having divisions at all. The system is fine.

GB shouldn't be in the playoffs at all then because Arizona has a better record and should be in. Where would it stop?

The Juggler

i agree with jk. it's an imperfect system, but i like the idea of fighting to win your division each year and having it mean something. occasionally a team is going to get screwed, but it doesn't happen every year.

it's still relatively tough to make the playoffs in football. that is the way it should be. other sports have made it too easy.