Also in this scenario, if the same 2000 10C members got tickets for back to back shows, the odds that at least one member would win the lottery for both nights are nearly 72%.
there is a 72% change that a single member wins lotto tickets on back to back nights.....not sure i buy into that math
Not sure you're reading it correctly. It's a 72% chance that at least one member does, not that any given member does.
It's pretty simple, actually. Take the 50 people who win on night 1. For there to be no repeats, every single one of them has to lose on night 2.
The odds of losing are 39/40.
The odds of all 50 of them losing are (39/40) ^ 50
If you run that math, you get about 28%, which means there's only a 28% chance that all 50 of them lose on night 2. Conversely, there's a 72% chance that one or more are repeat winners.
ETA: For any statisticians reading, I'm slightly simplifying. Haven't figured out yet whether there's any impact from considering replacement, but I'm certain that it doesn't have any meaningful impact on the point of the exercise.
I agree though, winners names should not be removed from winning to any other show of the tour. I am allowed to win the state and national lotteries as many times as I can. This should be no different.
The answer is even simpler than that:
Have any of you actually asked the 10C how they do it?
The answer I got was quite satisfactory…
So, what was the answer the 10c gave you?.....I will take a guess.....The 1st & 2nd & 9th row & 10th rows are all randomly drawn winners.....If this what the 10c stated?....Do you really believe that it happens all the time?
I agree though, winners names should not be removed from winning to any other show of the tour. I am allowed to win the state and national lotteries as many times as I can. This should be no different.
I don't think the persons name should be taken out of the drawing...Just cross their name off for that row that already have won once on that tour...
There may be VIP stuff going on. There may be unscrupulous people working in the venues' ticket offices who manage to do shady things. None of that HAS to be true for people to have the types of anecdotes about not winning, or multiple winners, that they've raised on this thread. All we can do is trust that the band and 10C are good people who want nothing more than to ensure a great show and a great experience for every fan.
Now this is funny because while I would have surmised that most of the poor shmucks here would
have taken my claim seriously, you of all people Santos would have just laughed it off instead
of stating the obvious.
I'm just a poor shmuck but I love watching Santos lay the smack down...
Well then I guess you're an even bigger shmuck than I thought because that's about
a poor attempt at a "smackdown" as they come.
Do you understand the concept that my claim was so preposterous that only an idiot
would think it were true?
Also in this scenario, if the same 2000 10C members got tickets for back to back shows, the odds that at least one member would win the lottery for both nights are nearly 72%.
.
I just can't wrap my head around this??
Maybe you forgot to carry the one?
"Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
:-)
I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.
there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).
even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.
I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.
there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).
even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.
just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
I'm the coolest person you could ever be beside.
Just, not enough.
I need more.
Nothing seems to satisfy.
I said, I dont want it.
I just need it.
To breathe, to feel, to know Im alive.
there is a 72% change that a single member wins lotto tickets on back to back nights.....not sure i buy into that math
Not sure you're reading it correctly. It's a 72% chance that at least one member does, not that any given member does.
It's pretty simple, actually. Take the 50 people who win on night 1. For there to be no repeats, every single one of them has to lose on night 2.
The odds of losing are 39/40.
The odds of all 50 of them losing are (39/40) ^ 50
If you run that math, you get about 28%, which means there's only a 28% chance that all 50 of them lose on night 2. Conversely, there's a 72% chance that one or more are repeat winners.
ETA: For any statisticians reading, I'm slightly simplifying. Haven't figured out yet whether there's any impact from considering replacement, but I'm certain that it doesn't have any meaningful impact on the point of the exercise.
math is fun! i think there's a 100% chance no one knows the odds ... NO ONE
but i am curious what are the chances we got through to the kid who thinks the saying is goody tissues?
I've already accepted the fact that I will never win. It takes all the worry away.
there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).
even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.
just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
I'm the coolest person you could ever be beside.
i know....i learned that in the brief time we spent at the tailgate.....you are a good egg...not matter they say.
These math numbers make no sense at all because not everyone in row 1, 2, 9 & 10 are lottery winners from the 10 Club. So assuming you can figure out a mathematical equation without knowing how many seats are in those lottery rows is foolish.
Without knowing how many winners there are per night and how many actual seats there are each night, no mathematical equation will work.
These math numbers make no sense at all because not everyone in row 1, 2, 9 & 10 are lottery winners from the 10 Club. So assuming you can figure out a mathematical equation without knowing how many seats are in those lottery rows is foolish.
Without knowing how many winners there are per night and how many actual seats there are each night, no mathematical equation will work.
it's called an assumption....when you don't have facts, you make assumptions based on the information that you have.....
I always thought that the more goods that you bought from Ten Club the better your chances would be. I mean they know how much each of us spend on this site. It's kind of like looking after the people that look after you. All I really buy through the club is tickets so I would assume that my chances would be lowered by that fact. Just my theory.
nah, that theory doesn't hold water either because I have never spent a dime on anything
from the goods section and including last night I have now won the lottery 8 times.
since you need to purchase tickets via the Ten Club to be eligible for the lottery, and you have 0 ticket purchases in your account, I'd venture a guess that you've NOT won the lottery 8 times.
slh
Owned
Oh please, let it rain today, this city's so filthy, like my mind in ways . . .
There are no exclusions. All members have opportunity to end up in lottery from the most senior members, to least senior members.
These are chosen through a randomized selection. There is no “who you know” to it. We absolutely do not play that game, it’s just not what we are about.
The number of lottery seats depend on how many seats fall into those 4 rows. So it’s completely specific to each venue’s seating layout.
The process has been the same since we started the lottery process.
Best,
10c
For what it's worth, the example posted by shawnb199 is just an example, trying to illustrate the general nature of the process. The fact is, the more shows you go to, the better your chance of winning the lottery, but as in all random processes weird things happen, and those are the stories you end up hearing. That phenomenon even has a name, it's called "selection bias".
I believe the 10 Club, the process is completely random. Has anyone in the long chain of people who handle the tickets ever cheated ever, over the course of thousands of shows? Maybe. But in the overwhelmingly vast majority of cases, it's completely fucking random.
Comments
I just can't wrap my head around this??
It's pretty simple, actually. Take the 50 people who win on night 1. For there to be no repeats, every single one of them has to lose on night 2.
The odds of losing are 39/40.
The odds of all 50 of them losing are (39/40) ^ 50
If you run that math, you get about 28%, which means there's only a 28% chance that all 50 of them lose on night 2. Conversely, there's a 72% chance that one or more are repeat winners.
ETA: For any statisticians reading, I'm slightly simplifying. Haven't figured out yet whether there's any impact from considering replacement, but I'm certain that it doesn't have any meaningful impact on the point of the exercise.
I agree though, winners names should not be removed from winning to any other show of the tour. I am allowed to win the state and national lotteries as many times as I can. This should be no different.
So, what was the answer the 10c gave you?.....I will take a guess.....The 1st & 2nd & 9th row & 10th rows are all randomly drawn winners.....If this what the 10c stated?....Do you really believe that it happens all the time?
Jeremy
I don't think the persons name should be taken out of the drawing...Just cross their name off for that row that already have won once on that tour...
Jeremy
Awesome analysis!
Well then I guess you're an even bigger shmuck than I thought because that's about
a poor attempt at a "smackdown" as they come.
Do you understand the concept that my claim was so preposterous that only an idiot
would think it were true?
Maybe you forgot to carry the one?
:-)
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
there really is no reason to fret....i just go in expecting the worse...if i get upgraded...great...if not...great. i'm still going to have a good time regardless of being lotto row (alpine), 3rd row (columbus), or 3rd row from the back wall in the upper deck (philly 4).
even at bonnaroo, we didn't make a huge effort to get up front. i think we started by the soundboard and moved down a little from there.
just get me in and put somebody cool beside me.
I need more.
Nothing seems to satisfy.
I said, I dont want it.
I just need it.
To breathe, to feel, to know Im alive.
math is fun! i think there's a 100% chance no one knows the odds ... NO ONE
but i am curious what are the chances we got through to the kid who thinks the saying is goody tissues?
Now you resort to name calling. Awesome!! :thumbup:
i know....i learned that in the brief time we spent at the tailgate.....you are a good egg...not matter they say.
Jeremy
Without knowing how many winners there are per night and how many actual seats there are each night, no mathematical equation will work.
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
it's called an assumption....when you don't have facts, you make assumptions based on the information that you have.....
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
Why would I care to make an educated guess about something we will never know?
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
you just described 62% of the posts on here
I love the new Avatar!!!!
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
99% of RM's. :P
8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13
More to Come....
I am in 100% agreement with this statement.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
For what it's worth, the example posted by shawnb199 is just an example, trying to illustrate the general nature of the process. The fact is, the more shows you go to, the better your chance of winning the lottery, but as in all random processes weird things happen, and those are the stories you end up hearing. That phenomenon even has a name, it's called "selection bias".
I believe the 10 Club, the process is completely random. Has anyone in the long chain of people who handle the tickets ever cheated ever, over the course of thousands of shows? Maybe. But in the overwhelmingly vast majority of cases, it's completely fucking random.
Peace and see you in Vancouver.