Thank you PJ! (didn't win lotto but played requested Smile)

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Comments

  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    Going to more shows doesn't increase your chances. You still have the same odds at each show, they never improve.


    True you have the same shot for each show but if you go to more shows you do increase your chances of actually winning. If a member has been to one show over their life they were only in the lottery pool once but a member who has been to fifty shows had fifty chances to hit the lottery.
  • RedMosquito22
    RedMosquito22 Posts: 8,158
    DS1119 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    Going to more shows doesn't increase your chances. You still have the same odds at each show, they never improve.


    True you have the same shot for each show but if you go to more shows you do increase your chances of actually winning. If a member has been to one show over their life they were only in the lottery pool once but a member who has been to fifty shows had fifty chances to hit the lottery.

    The only way your odds increase is if you have more than one member number at the same show. Your odds will always be the same no matter how many times you go.
    Member 164xxx

    8/15/92, 9/28/96, 8/28/98, 8/29/98, 9/18/98, 8/3/00, 8/9/00, 8/10/00, 8/23/00, 8/25/00, 9/1/00, 9/2/00, 4/28/03, 6/18/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 10/1/04, 10/3/05, 6/19/08, 10/27/09, 10/31/09, 5/21/10, 9/3/11, 9/4/11, 10/21/13

    More to Come....
  • KingJeremyD
    KingJeremyD Posts: 2,313
    It isn't totally random..

    Jeremy
  • Zidane
    Zidane Ottawa Posts: 362
    Well... all I can say is that I got 2nd row last year in Cleveland, 9th row for the last Toronto show and 2nd row again for last night's show in Ottawa. Yesterday's was my 17th show; average if I see some of you that can follow them for numbers of shows.

    I didn't do anything different, I don't know anyone in the Pearl Jam organization, my number is average (192xxx)... so... all of you out there thinking there's a conspiracy theory should think again.
    You're not what you own - Ian MacKaye, Fugazi

    98 - Montreal
    00 - Montreal
    03 - Toronto, Montreal
    04 - Boston (Show #1)
    05 - Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto
    06 - Toronto (Show #1)
    09 - Toronto, Philly (Show #3-4)
    10 - Cleveland
    11 - Montreal, Toronto (x2), Ottawa
    13 - London (ON), Philly (x2)
    16 - QC - Ottawa

  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    DS1119 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    Going to more shows doesn't increase your chances. You still have the same odds at each show, they never improve.


    True you have the same shot for each show but if you go to more shows you do increase your chances of actually winning. If a member has been to one show over their life they were only in the lottery pool once but a member who has been to fifty shows had fifty chances to hit the lottery.

    Does going to shows increase your chances of seeing kids at shows?

    :crazy: :wtf: :crazy:
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    DS1119 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    Going to more shows doesn't increase your chances. You still have the same odds at each show, they never improve.


    True you have the same shot for each show but if you go to more shows you do increase your chances of actually winning. If a member has been to one show over their life they were only in the lottery pool once but a member who has been to fifty shows had fifty chances to hit the lottery.

    The only way your odds increase is if you have more than one member number at the same show. Your odds will always be the same no matter how many times you go.


    You're totally correct but I don't think my point is translating well the way I'm typing it. The more shows you attend over a lifetime the more likely it is to hit the lottery at some point. I went to only one Canadian show, Montreal, so I had one "chance" at winning the lottery. Another member who went to all the Canadian shows would have nine "chances" at winning the lottery. Another member who is attending zero Canadian shows has zero "chances" of hitting the lottery.
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    Tboz51 wrote:
    DS1119 wrote:
    RedMosquito22 wrote:
    Going to more shows doesn't increase your chances. You still have the same odds at each show, they never improve.


    True you have the same shot for each show but if you go to more shows you do increase your chances of actually winning. If a member has been to one show over their life they were only in the lottery pool once but a member who has been to fifty shows had fifty chances to hit the lottery.

    Does going to shows increase your chances of seeing kids at shows?

    :crazy: :wtf: :crazy:

    The way it's trending now...yes. :lol:
  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    :clap::lol:
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • JoelInNoCal
    JoelInNoCal Posts: 187
    Mathematics is mathematics.

    Every show is completely different and is unrelated to any previous or future show when choosing random lottery winners.

    Assuming 2000 10c members at each show, with 50 lottery seats given every member has 1:40 chance of getting a lottery seat. That would be 1:40 for each and every show. No more. No less.

    Mathematics is blind and impartial. If someone wins multiple times and someone wins none, mathematics has deemed it to be so, and it is very plausible that this can be the case since everyone has an equal chance to win for every show.

    Granted, this also assumes no funny business and/or direct human interaction in the mathematical formula; but there hasn't been proof of that thus far.
    Raleigh, 8/18/1992 (Lollapalooza)
    Sacramento, 7/16/1998
    San Francisco, 7/18/2006
    Oakland, 7/11/2011 (Eddie Vedder)
    Vancouver, BC, 9/25/2011
    Oakland, 10/26/2013
  • Bruins24
    Bruins24 Posts: 103
    I agree that you member number doesn't impact your chances. I have a good number (28XXX) and I won 1st row lottery at night 2 of PJ20. It was my first time winning the lottery. This at least proves that the lottery is not limited to only higher numbers over 100,000.
    '95 - San Diego '98 - Phoenix, San Diego, Las Vegas, Inglewood 1-2 '00 - San Bernardino '03 - Denver, Council Bluffs '06 - Denver 1-2, Los Angeles 1-2 '09 - Universal City, San Diego '11 - PJ20
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    JoelInNoCal wrote:
    since everyone has an equal chance to win for every show.
    .


    This statement is only true for members who have tickets. If I am not going to the Vancouver shows I have ZERO chance of hitting lottery seats. Overall the more shows I go to the more chances I actually have to win lottery seats.
  • SPEEDY MCCREADY
    SPEEDY MCCREADY Posts: 26,868
    And this thread has officially become....

    Real fucking silly!!!!
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    And this thread has officially become....

    Real fucking silly!!!!

    hahahaha!

    New best post!
    :clap:
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • SPEEDY MCCREADY
    SPEEDY MCCREADY Posts: 26,868
    Tboz51 wrote:
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    And this thread has officially become....

    Real fucking silly!!!!

    hahahaha!

    New best post!
    :clap:
    If I dont go to any shows...I have ZERO chance of winning...


    Really??
    Ya dont say???
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    Tboz51 wrote:
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    And this thread has officially become....

    Real fucking silly!!!!

    hahahaha!

    New best post!
    :clap:
    If I dont go to any shows...I have ZERO chance of winning...


    Really??
    Ya dont say???


    100% mathematically true. Just like if you go to more shows you have a better chance of winning.
  • QuarterToTen
    QuarterToTen Cincinnati, Ohio Posts: 3,649
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    If I dont go to any shows...I have ZERO chance of winning...


    Really??
    Ya dont say???

    Oh my.

    :lol:
    Nice shirt.
  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    Tboz51 wrote:
    SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:
    And this thread has officially become....

    Real fucking silly!!!!

    hahahaha!

    New best post!
    :clap:
    If I dont go to any shows...I have ZERO chance of winning...


    Really??
    Ya dont say???

    The ticket lottery is exactly like roulette.

    0-00 1-36 gives you a 1-38 chance every spin of winning.

    Every spin is exactly the same 38-1 shot of hitting.

    If the number 7 comes up, it still has the same 38-1 shot of coming up again.

    The number 7 coming up again is the same chance on the next spin of 38-1 chance of coming up.

    Past results do not predict future results.

    Every extra show you attend still gives you the same 40-1 odd chance of winning.

    You can have seen 870 shows and never gotten better then 40-1 chance of winning.

    Unless the venue size or odds go down or up by ticket rows being added. You still have the same 40-1 shot. You can have seen 870 shows and won the lottery ZERO times.

    (for Speedy)

    The only real 1-1 odds you can get is buying ZERO 10c tickets.

    Then you will win lottery tickets never.

    :-)
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • DS1119
    DS1119 Posts: 33,497
    headbangeranimation.gif

    I give up. It's such a simple concept I think some posters are just trying to fuck with me. :lol:
  • Tboz51
    Tboz51 Posts: 2,808
    DS1119 wrote:
    headbangeranimation.gif

    I give up. It's such a simple concept I think some posters are just trying to fuck with me. :lol:

    More shows don't mean better odds cause it resets every night.

    I'm sorry, please don't harm your head.
    "Honesty will always be construed as negative to a dumbass"
    :-)
  • dislocated
    dislocated Posts: 599
    Tboz51 wrote:
    DS1119 wrote:
    headbangeranimation.gif

    I give up. It's such a simple concept I think some posters are just trying to fuck with me. :lol:

    More shows don't mean better odds cause it resets every night.

    I'm sorry, please don't harm your head.

    Yes it does. If you dont go its 0-0 chance.
    If you go, it's 40-1 chance, hence better odds.

    Hence, that's a funny word, did I even spell it right?

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