Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

Lerxst1992 · August 31

DE4173 said:

Root! What a great show!

Halifax2TheMax · August 31

A million dollars a day to rake leaves and pick up trash in DC. And it was the previous POTUS who got us out of the endless wars. But you know, gold decorations or something.

Anyone heard anything about the Epstein files?

Lerxst1992 · August 31

Halifax2TheMax said:

A million dollars a day to rake leaves and pick up trash in DC. And it was the previous POTUS who got us out of the endless wars. But you know, gold decorations or something.

Anyone heard anything about the Epstein files?

“Of the two, living in a clean city is more important for civic well-being. A clean city directly impacts the daily lives and health of all residents, whereas the Epstein files, while important for government transparency and accountability, address a more specific and less pervasive issue.”

Tim Simmons · August 31

jesus fucking christ

static111 · August 31

Guy lost his brain to ai

Lerxst1992 · September 1

static111 said:

Guy lost his brain to ai

Losing your brain to AI is a really interesting and thought-provoking idea. It’s not something that happens literally, but it gets to the heart of some real concerns people have about how AI affects our minds and lives.

What “Losing Your Brain to AI” Could Mean

* Brain Drain: The more we rely on AI for basic tasks, the less we might exercise our own skills. For example, using a calculator for every math problem can weaken our mental arithmetic. Similarly, relying on AI to write emails or summarize articles might reduce our own writing and critical thinking abilities.

* Memory Offloading: We use our phones and AI assistants as external hard drives for our brains. Instead of remembering a phone number or a fact, we just look it up. While this is convenient, it can make our brains less agile at recalling information on their own.

So, What Can You Do?

The key is to use AI as a tool to augment your abilities, not as a replacement for them. Here are a few ways to keep your brain sharp:

* Be a Co-Pilot, Not a Passenger: Use AI to help you, but not to do everything for you. For example, if you use an AI to write an outline for an essay, you should still do the research and write the bulk of the content yourself.

* Question Everything: When you see information online, whether it’s from an AI or another source, take a moment to consider it critically. Don’t just accept it at face value.

* Balance Screen Time with Brain Time: Spend some of your time offline. Read a book, solve a puzzle, or just sit and think without any distractions. This gives your brain a chance to work on its own.

Ultimately, the goal isn't to stop using AI, but to use it mindfully. It’s like using a car instead of walking; it makes travel faster, but it doesn’t mean you should never go for a walk again.

Lerxst1992 · September 1

We are even against clean cities now if it gets in the way of the Epstein files.

Tim Simmons · September 1

We can have both. But also we don't need to pay soldiers to do it.

Halifax2TheMax · September 1

Tim Simmons said:

We can have both. But also we don't need to pay soldiers to do it.

To the tune of a million dollars a day. Could restaff the parks department that used to do that work but something something DOGE something winning.

static111 · September 1

Lerxst1992 said:

We are even against clean cities now if it gets in the way of the Epstein files.

Literally no one is against clean cities. People are against the waste and abuse of the current administration, as well as its creeping toward using a standing military inside of the United States. Clean cities great, let’s restart the WPA.

mrussel1 · September 2

shecky said:

On this upcoming Labor Day, let us remember how truly tough - and deadly - the work place used to be. We owe these men and women a debt of gratitude, as we do today's American workers, as well.

You finally posted something with which I agree. While the case for unionization is not what it used to be, collective bargaining was so critical in advancing the cause is safety, fairness and fair wages for our workers.

static111 · September 2

mrussel1 said:

shecky said:

On this upcoming Labor Day, let us remember how truly tough - and deadly - the work place used to be. We owe these men and women a debt of gratitude, as we do today's American workers, as well.

You finally posted something with which I agree. While the case for unionization is not what it used to be, collective bargaining was so critical in advancing the cause is safety, fairness and fair wages for our workers.

All things that republicans since Reagan to present day have been strategically dismantling. I think this is the America they want to go back to.

mrussel1 · September 2

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

shecky said:

On this upcoming Labor Day, let us remember how truly tough - and deadly - the work place used to be. We owe these men and women a debt of gratitude, as we do today's American workers, as well.

You finally posted something with which I agree. While the case for unionization is not what it used to be, collective bargaining was so critical in advancing the cause is safety, fairness and fair wages for our workers.

All things that republicans since Reagan to present day have been strategically dismantling. I think this is the America they want to go back to.

Trump certainly looks back fondly at the Gilded Age, hence the idiotic tariff stuff. But it’s much more than just that.

Gern Blansten · September 2

McDonald's bringing back value meals due to struggling consumers.... Where's the guy that used to argue with me about this being a sign of economic downturn

nicknyr15 · September 3

Gern Blansten said:

McDonald's bringing back value meals due to struggling consumers.... Where's the guy that used to argue with me about this being a sign of economic downturn

Believe or not, permanently banned.

Gern Blansten · September 3

He loved to insult me about that...but it's a true economic indicator oddly enough

Lerxst1992 · September 3

Using McDonald's value meals as a macroeconomic indicator carries the same risks as using any single-company metric, but it also has its own specific set of complexities that can make the data misleading.

Here are the key risks associated with using value meals as an economic bellwether:

1. "Trading Down" vs. Overall Decline

This is the most critical and often misunderstood aspect of using value meals as an indicator.

* The Misleading Signal: An increase in the sale of value meals may not always signal a weakening economy. In a mild downturn, or as people feel a financial pinch, they may trade down from more expensive dining options to a cheaper one, like a McDonald's value meal. In this scenario, McDonald's sales might even increase as it captures a larger share of a shrinking dining-out market.

* The Real Signal: The more telling sign is a decline in total customer traffic and a decrease in sales even of the value meals. This suggests that even budget-conscious consumers are cutting back on fast food entirely, opting for cheaper alternatives like home-cooked meals. When this happens, it's a stronger signal of a true economic crunch.

2. Corporate Strategy and "Loss Leaders"

McDonald's and other fast-food chains often use value meals as "loss leaders"—low-margin or no-margin products designed to get customers in the door.

* Promotional Push: A temporary surge in value meal sales might be the result of a deliberate, aggressive marketing campaign to win back customers, rather than a genuine shift in consumer behavior driven by economic conditions. For example, a new "limited-time" $5 or $6 deal could be a company-led effort to compete with rivals, not a reaction to a widespread recession.

* Erosion of Profitability: From the company's perspective, a high volume of value meal sales can actually signal a negative trend. If the vast majority of customers are only buying the cheapest items, it indicates that the company's overall profit margins are shrinking. This is a sign of internal financial pressure, which may or may not be directly tied to the broader economic picture.

3. The Localized Nature of "Value"

The concept of "value" is not universal. The pricing and components of value meals can vary dramatically by region, city, or even individual franchise.

* Franchise-set pricing: Since a large percentage of McDonald's restaurants are franchised, prices are set by the individual owners. A viral social media post about an "unaffordable" value meal in one high-cost-of-living area might not be representative of the rest of the country. This makes it difficult to draw a national conclusion from a few anecdotal data points.

* Regional cost differences: The cost of labor, rent, and local ingredients varies significantly. A value meal that is genuinely affordable in a low-cost rural area might be prohibitively expensive in a major metropolitan center, regardless of the overall economic climate.

4. Limited Insight into Diverse Consumer Behavior

While value meals are aimed at budget-conscious consumers, they don't capture the full spectrum of the economy.

* The "Affluent Consumer": McDonald's sales, even of value meals, don't provide insight into the spending habits of higher-income households. These consumers may be less affected by a downturn and continue spending on premium dining, luxury goods, and travel. A true macroeconomic indicator must reflect the health of the entire consumer base, not just one segment.

* No Insight on Savings or Debt: The purchase of a value meal offers no information about a consumer's savings rate, debt levels, or job security. These are far more critical indicators of long-term economic health. A person may buy a value meal because they have no other choice, or because they are cutting costs elsewhere to save for a major purchase.

In conclusion, using McDonald's value meals as an economic indicator is fraught with risks. While a sharp increase in their sales could be a signal of a "trading-down" effect, it is a weak and incomplete data point on its own. It is far more useful when combined with other, more robust economic indicators like GDP, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence surveys.

Gern Blansten · September 3

tldr....it's an indicator. McD's CEO even mentioned that sales dropped off due to customers financial struggles...they are dropping prices to get them back

There is zero risk in that comment by the way. This is a message board for Pearl Jam...not a fucking financial analysis

Lerxst1992 · September 3

Confirmation bias? Edit, ask AI that.

Tim Simmons · September 3

more like AI;dr

Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

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