gimmesometruth27 said:

tsunami watch along entire west coast, alaska, and hawaii after 8.7 quake off of russia.

i am so glad trump is in charge. 

mickeyrat said:

Procter & Gamble announced it will raise prices on about 25% of its U.S. products starting in August as it works to offset rising tariff-related expenses.

Halifax2TheMax said:

Sure, it’s all going to end extremely well, nothing to see here. Don’t buy, and particularly, don’t eat the bullshit being sold.

David Frum: Hello, and welcome back to The David Frum Show. I’m David Frum, a staff writer at The Atlantic. My guest today will be Douglas Irwin, who teaches at Dartmouth College and is, in my opinion, America’s leading expert on the history of trade and tariffs in this country. We’ll be talking directly about many of the myths that are offered by protectionists to justify trade restrictions, tariffs. We’ll be looking at episodes from American economic history and refuting some of the stories that the protectionists tell to justify their otherwise obviously self-harming policies.

Before we begin, though, a few thoughts about some very recent events. I am recording this podcast a few hours after the Trump administration announced a supposedly big deal with the European Union that will see Americans paying much higher tariffs on everything they import from the countries of Europe. We are speaking a few hours before—or a few days before—the August 1 deadline for a whole lot more tariffs on everything from all the rest of the world.

Now, these measures follow announced so-called trade deals with Japan—about which the details are extremely hazy and where the details keep changing and where the Japanese don’t seem at all to have the same idea of what has been agreed, if anything, that the United States does—and shortly after announcements of equally vaporous agreements with Britain and with China.

There’s a kind of trade truce in effect with China, where the round of tariff increases has stopped rising and rising and rising. But Americans are still paying more for everything because of the Trump tariffs than they were. It’s a tax paid by the Americans least able to pay taxes. It’s a tax that exempts all of the wealthiest people, who spend more of their money on things that aren’t internationally traded: services here at home. Remember, the dues at the country club aren’t subject to the tariff. Your rent and your fancy penthouse, that’s not subject to a tariff. But the knives and forks on the dinner tables of ordinary people, those are tariffed.

So we are seeing, also, a slowdown in the American economy. Beginning about April, when the Trump tariffs were announced, the growth projections for the United States economy have been slowing. We’re not in a recession yet, but this year is obviously shaping up to be much less prosperous than people expected at the beginning of the year.

I want to talk a little bit about what the Trump tariffs do and what the Trump tariffs do not do. Let me start with what they do not do. Tariffs are advertised as a way to increase your country’s manufacturing. What you do is: You put a tax on all manufacturers from other countries. It makes those other manufacturers more expensive, and therefore your manufacturers are more competitive. Not only that—better still: Your manufacturers can increase their prices because they’re shielded from competition. That makes them more profitable, so they can afford to hire more people and put out more goods. That’s the theory, that by shielding your domestic industry from competition, you’ll be able to produce more and therefore export more, and you’ll fix this trade balance that the Trump people are so upset about—the trade balance being the difference between what you import and what you export.

None of this is true, and any economist of any merit will agree. Here’s what tariffs actually do. First, they hurt your manufacturing. Remember, every manufactured good has inputs in it. Every product is an input into the next product. What tariffs do is: They raise the price of all your inputs. So the Trump people say, We have to bring back American shipbuilding. Oh, yeah—we’ve increased the price of steel. We have to bring back American automobiles. Oh, yeah—we’ve increased the price of aluminum, of glass and electronic components. Everything that they are promising America will make more of is going to be made of things that are more expensive, and often a lot more expensive. Some of these tariffs are in the vicinity of 50 percent.

And so what you’ll find is: Even if the tariff is sufficient to protect the American product, it can’t be sold to the rest of the world. The American ship made out of a high-cost American steel will not be able to compete on world markets with the South Korean ship or the Chinese ship. America’s manufacturing exports will go down, not up. And by losing export markets, America will see its manufacturing actually tend to shrivel rather than to grow.

The Trump people say, Well, it’ll fix the trade balance. That is, We’ll import less and export more. Well, that’s not true either. We won’t export more, even of nonagricultural, nonindustrial goods, because other countries will retaliate. You know, before Donald Trump became president the first time, the United States was the world’s largest exporter of soybeans. Trump imposed tariffs on China. They retaliated by switching their soybean purchases from the United States to Brazil and Argentina, and America’s share of the world’s soybean market collapsed. And America is now far behind Brazil as a soybean producer and exporter.

Continues 

https://apple.news/AnEeqepSiSeG5RnPYq1FNGQ

static111 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Sure, it’s all going to end extremely well, nothing to see here. Don’t buy, and particularly, don’t eat the bullshit being sold.

David Frum: Hello, and welcome back to The David Frum Show. I’m David Frum, a staff writer at The Atlantic. My guest today will be Douglas Irwin, who teaches at Dartmouth College and is, in my opinion, America’s leading expert on the history of trade and tariffs in this country. We’ll be talking directly about many of the myths that are offered by protectionists to justify trade restrictions, tariffs. We’ll be looking at episodes from American economic history and refuting some of the stories that the protectionists tell to justify their otherwise obviously self-harming policies.

Before we begin, though, a few thoughts about some very recent events. I am recording this podcast a few hours after the Trump administration announced a supposedly big deal with the European Union that will see Americans paying much higher tariffs on everything they import from the countries of Europe. We are speaking a few hours before—or a few days before—the August 1 deadline for a whole lot more tariffs on everything from all the rest of the world.

Now, these measures follow announced so-called trade deals with Japan—about which the details are extremely hazy and where the details keep changing and where the Japanese don’t seem at all to have the same idea of what has been agreed, if anything, that the United States does—and shortly after announcements of equally vaporous agreements with Britain and with China.

There’s a kind of trade truce in effect with China, where the round of tariff increases has stopped rising and rising and rising. But Americans are still paying more for everything because of the Trump tariffs than they were. It’s a tax paid by the Americans least able to pay taxes. It’s a tax that exempts all of the wealthiest people, who spend more of their money on things that aren’t internationally traded: services here at home. Remember, the dues at the country club aren’t subject to the tariff. Your rent and your fancy penthouse, that’s not subject to a tariff. But the knives and forks on the dinner tables of ordinary people, those are tariffed.

So we are seeing, also, a slowdown in the American economy. Beginning about April, when the Trump tariffs were announced, the growth projections for the United States economy have been slowing. We’re not in a recession yet, but this year is obviously shaping up to be much less prosperous than people expected at the beginning of the year.

I want to talk a little bit about what the Trump tariffs do and what the Trump tariffs do not do. Let me start with what they do not do. Tariffs are advertised as a way to increase your country’s manufacturing. What you do is: You put a tax on all manufacturers from other countries. It makes those other manufacturers more expensive, and therefore your manufacturers are more competitive. Not only that—better still: Your manufacturers can increase their prices because they’re shielded from competition. That makes them more profitable, so they can afford to hire more people and put out more goods. That’s the theory, that by shielding your domestic industry from competition, you’ll be able to produce more and therefore export more, and you’ll fix this trade balance that the Trump people are so upset about—the trade balance being the difference between what you import and what you export.

None of this is true, and any economist of any merit will agree. Here’s what tariffs actually do. First, they hurt your manufacturing. Remember, every manufactured good has inputs in it. Every product is an input into the next product. What tariffs do is: They raise the price of all your inputs. So the Trump people say, We have to bring back American shipbuilding. Oh, yeah—we’ve increased the price of steel. We have to bring back American automobiles. Oh, yeah—we’ve increased the price of aluminum, of glass and electronic components. Everything that they are promising America will make more of is going to be made of things that are more expensive, and often a lot more expensive. Some of these tariffs are in the vicinity of 50 percent.

And so what you’ll find is: Even if the tariff is sufficient to protect the American product, it can’t be sold to the rest of the world. The American ship made out of a high-cost American steel will not be able to compete on world markets with the South Korean ship or the Chinese ship. America’s manufacturing exports will go down, not up. And by losing export markets, America will see its manufacturing actually tend to shrivel rather than to grow.

The Trump people say, Well, it’ll fix the trade balance. That is, We’ll import less and export more. Well, that’s not true either. We won’t export more, even of nonagricultural, nonindustrial goods, because other countries will retaliate. You know, before Donald Trump became president the first time, the United States was the world’s largest exporter of soybeans. Trump imposed tariffs on China. They retaliated by switching their soybean purchases from the United States to Brazil and Argentina, and America’s share of the world’s soybean market collapsed. And America is now far behind Brazil as a soybean producer and exporter.

Continues 

https://apple.news/AnEeqepSiSeG5RnPYq1FNGQ

But I was told Trump knows the bounds of what will be accepted and that the stock market is up 4%. Can u square that with AI for me?

cincybearcat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

cincybearcat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

cincybearcat said:

mickeyrat said:

Procter & Gamble announced it will raise prices on about 25% of its U.S. products starting in August as it works to offset rising tariff-related expenses.

Yup, directly related to trump's economy.

It is,but...markets up again, and...

US economic growth rebounded in the second quarter after contracting for the first time in three years to start 2025.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6% increase.

The reading comes after a large surge in imports ahead of President Trump's tariff whipsaw caused GDP to contract by 0.5% in the first quarter.

The Dow is up a whopping 0.65% at this moment since 1/21/25. 

The Dow is @ 4% ytd, and nasdaq and s and p @ 9%….most investors would take that any year. 

My point was …considering the intrusive nature of tariffs, the economy is holding its own. Trump was warned by the markets in the spring, and knows his limits imo.

3.85%  gain was Jan 1-Jan 21.... trump's first day that the stock market was open was Jan 21.  

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

cincybearcat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

cincybearcat said:

mickeyrat said:

Procter & Gamble announced it will raise prices on about 25% of its U.S. products starting in August as it works to offset rising tariff-related expenses.

Yup, directly related to trump's economy.

It is,but...markets up again, and...

US economic growth rebounded in the second quarter after contracting for the first time in three years to start 2025.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6% increase.

The reading comes after a large surge in imports ahead of President Trump's tariff whipsaw caused GDP to contract by 0.5% in the first quarter.

The Dow is up a whopping 0.65% at this moment since 1/21/25. 

The Dow is @ 4% ytd, and nasdaq and s and p @ 9%….most investors would take that any year. 

My point was …considering the intrusive nature of tariffs, the economy is holding its own. Trump was warned by the markets in the spring, and knows his limits imo.

3.85%  gain was Jan 1-Jan 21.... trump's first day that the stock market was open was Jan 21.  

Earlier this week I looked at the S&P growth since Jan 21. It was 7%. Same period for Biden was 13%. Total Biden from inauguration until exit was 37%