Elon Musk

curmudgeoness said:

So, I agree that one should leave emotions at the door when determining investment strategy. BUT: There's a huge difference between sticking to one's plan despite economic turmoil and investing in a company or an asset regardless of what it does or how it is run.

My husband is a corporate officer at a large company. I know full well that, were his CEO to behave the way Musk does in earnings calls, the investor relations team would shoot the CEO with a tranquilizer gun and the top institutional investors would demand -- and get -- the CEO's firing before the call concluded. I also know that the analysts want good, solid, actual reasons to invest in the company. And it's absolutely maddening to see Tesla get rewarded for having a poop-flinging chaos monkey at the helm.

As for emotions and politics -- again, that should apply to overall strategy, not to individual assets. Musk is openly embracing Nazi ideas and other reprehensible notions, concepts that all decent people have agreed should and must remain in history's dustbin. The trains may have run on time, but *to where*?!? and at what cost? (Seriously: One of the most unnerving things, for me, about visiting Auschwitz when we went to Poland to see PJ in 2018 was driving through this nice little town alongside some abandoned train tracks and realizing where those tracks went.)  I'll ride out all sorts of market ups and downs, but I'll live on the streets before I invest in Nazis, and I'm completely comfortable with that position. Moreover, one of the fundamental rules of parenting is: don't reward bad behavior. Musk is and has been an asshole, I've thought that for years, and I'd never reward his antics with my business, even though he doesn't need my money.

Finally, can we please put to rest the notion of Elon Musk as galaxy brain? He might be the most egregious example of the Dunning Kruger effect in human history. Many geniuses are eccentric, but it does not follow from that statement that all lunatics are geniuses. Any dorky, weird little kid -- like me -- who read a lot of sci-fi would have come up with the same ideas as Elon Musk (I thought traveling by pneumatic tube would be super cool, too!). He has the advantage of money/ an infinite line of credit that allows him to throw gobs of cash at all of his "hey, wouldn't it be cool if...?" ideas. I'd bet that anyone on here could make all kinds of sh-t happen if they had access to $100B. @brianlux might use such resources to solve world hunger and/or housing shortages across the country.

Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. Yeah, my financial adviser used to tell me that, only his angle was that the batteries were the key to Tesla's future. I think Tesla has a ton of, oh, quality issues, design issues, service issues, employee morale issues. I'd bet on Chinese competitors against Tesla. And when I bought a new car last year, I got a PHEV and had a dedicated line for a level two charger put in my garage: no Tesla car, no Tesla charging.

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

The real value of Tesla will be realized with mass adoption of autonomous vehicles, robotaxi in the near term.  They were light years ahead of everyone in EV engineering so there's no reason to doubt they will lead in self driving vehicles. The loosening of government regulations will speed up their timeline for nationwide fully autonomous vehicles. If Elon lost 90% of his customer base by switching his political stance his company will still gain in value when robotaxis are deployed in every major city.

This is the only strategy that Team Elon and his inglorious defenders point to today.  Their trailing 12 EPS is $1.74!!  Their TTM PE is $163.  By contrast, Toyota's EPS is 28.76 with a PE of $28.67.  This makes it perfectly clear that TSLA continues to be way over-priced against their fundamentals.  At some point, very soon, they will start trading like a car manufacturer.  I would not want a strong position in the company when that happens. 

I know this talking point around robotaxis and autonomous vehicles is rampant in the right wing ecosystem  It appears you might inhabit that space.  But it's a pipe dream, particularly in the next decade.  Buyers continue to move away from pure EV and towards hybrid so moving to full autonomous is WAY OFF in the future.  Americans are not ready for that and the safety isn't in place either.  Last, robotaxis.. sure.  Do a little research on the power of the taxi unions in major cities across the US.  It took Uber a decade to break into the Vegas market.  

TSLA is a terrible investment.  

Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. I used to think Elon had too many irons in the fire, but never doubted his vision.  I'm not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Tesla has outperformed every company in the Mag 7 except Nvidia in the last 5 years. There could come a day when Optimus robots are building robots and everyone will regret letting emotions and politics dictate their portfolio. 

TSLA is priced like a tech start company, meaning investors were focused on the top line.  For mature companies, you are not priced on revenue, you are priced EBIT, or the equivalent.  When you are 15 years into public trading, you don't get to be a tech start-up anymore.  Some investors have stuck with TSLA, obviously, but look at their fundamentals.  They are years away from robo or autonomous being profitable.  So until then, they have to rely on the car manufacturing as their profit and cash engine since tech is nothing but a cash burn. 

Regarding the Mag 7, who cares?  What you did the last five years is irrelevant to your future position.  When your profits drop 71% in a quarter, that's a problem.  And when that drop is almost solely based on the political actions of your CEO, who somehow decided to alienate his customer base, that's even a bigger problem.  This is the right wing version of Bud Light, but even more painful since Bud Light was a brand within a much larger company.  

mrussel1 said:

curmudgeoness said:

So, I agree that one should leave emotions at the door when determining investment strategy. BUT: There's a huge difference between sticking to one's plan despite economic turmoil and investing in a company or an asset regardless of what it does or how it is run.

My husband is a corporate officer at a large company. I know full well that, were his CEO to behave the way Musk does in earnings calls, the investor relations team would shoot the CEO with a tranquilizer gun and the top institutional investors would demand -- and get -- the CEO's firing before the call concluded. I also know that the analysts want good, solid, actual reasons to invest in the company. And it's absolutely maddening to see Tesla get rewarded for having a poop-flinging chaos monkey at the helm.

As for emotions and politics -- again, that should apply to overall strategy, not to individual assets. Musk is openly embracing Nazi ideas and other reprehensible notions, concepts that all decent people have agreed should and must remain in history's dustbin. The trains may have run on time, but *to where*?!? and at what cost? (Seriously: One of the most unnerving things, for me, about visiting Auschwitz when we went to Poland to see PJ in 2018 was driving through this nice little town alongside some abandoned train tracks and realizing where those tracks went.)  I'll ride out all sorts of market ups and downs, but I'll live on the streets before I invest in Nazis, and I'm completely comfortable with that position. Moreover, one of the fundamental rules of parenting is: don't reward bad behavior. Musk is and has been an asshole, I've thought that for years, and I'd never reward his antics with my business, even though he doesn't need my money.

Finally, can we please put to rest the notion of Elon Musk as galaxy brain? He might be the most egregious example of the Dunning Kruger effect in human history. Many geniuses are eccentric, but it does not follow from that statement that all lunatics are geniuses. Any dorky, weird little kid -- like me -- who read a lot of sci-fi would have come up with the same ideas as Elon Musk (I thought traveling by pneumatic tube would be super cool, too!). He has the advantage of money/ an infinite line of credit that allows him to throw gobs of cash at all of his "hey, wouldn't it be cool if...?" ideas. I'd bet that anyone on here could make all kinds of sh-t happen if they had access to $100B. @brianlux might use such resources to solve world hunger and/or housing shortages across the country.

Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. Yeah, my financial adviser used to tell me that, only his angle was that the batteries were the key to Tesla's future. I think Tesla has a ton of, oh, quality issues, design issues, service issues, employee morale issues. I'd bet on Chinese competitors against Tesla. And when I bought a new car last year, I got a PHEV and had a dedicated line for a level two charger put in my garage: no Tesla car, no Tesla charging.

I'd bet on Honda, Toyota and BMW to dominate those markets in the future. 

Evel K said:

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

The real value of Tesla will be realized with mass adoption of autonomous vehicles, robotaxi in the near term.  They were light years ahead of everyone in EV engineering so there's no reason to doubt they will lead in self driving vehicles. The loosening of government regulations will speed up their timeline for nationwide fully autonomous vehicles. If Elon lost 90% of his customer base by switching his political stance his company will still gain in value when robotaxis are deployed in every major city.

This is the only strategy that Team Elon and his inglorious defenders point to today.  Their trailing 12 EPS is $1.74!!  Their TTM PE is $163.  By contrast, Toyota's EPS is 28.76 with a PE of $28.67.  This makes it perfectly clear that TSLA continues to be way over-priced against their fundamentals.  At some point, very soon, they will start trading like a car manufacturer.  I would not want a strong position in the company when that happens. 

I know this talking point around robotaxis and autonomous vehicles is rampant in the right wing ecosystem  It appears you might inhabit that space.  But it's a pipe dream, particularly in the next decade.  Buyers continue to move away from pure EV and towards hybrid so moving to full autonomous is WAY OFF in the future.  Americans are not ready for that and the safety isn't in place either.  Last, robotaxis.. sure.  Do a little research on the power of the taxi unions in major cities across the US.  It took Uber a decade to break into the Vegas market.  

TSLA is a terrible investment.  

Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. I used to think Elon had too many irons in the fire, but never doubted his vision.  I'm not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Tesla has outperformed every company in the Mag 7 except Nvidia in the last 5 years. There could come a day when Optimus robots are building robots and everyone will regret letting emotions and politics dictate their portfolio. 

TSLA is priced like a tech start company, meaning investors were focused on the top line.  For mature companies, you are not priced on revenue, you are priced EBIT, or the equivalent.  When you are 15 years into public trading, you don't get to be a tech start-up anymore.  Some investors have stuck with TSLA, obviously, but look at their fundamentals.  They are years away from robo or autonomous being profitable.  So until then, they have to rely on the car manufacturing as their profit and cash engine since tech is nothing but a cash burn. 

Regarding the Mag 7, who cares?  What you did the last five years is irrelevant to your future position.  When your profits drop 71% in a quarter, that's a problem.  And when that drop is almost solely based on the political actions of your CEO, who somehow decided to alienate his customer base, that's even a bigger problem.  This is the right wing version of Bud Light, but even more painful since Bud Light was a brand within a much larger company.  

Someone said Tesla is a terrible investment.  The majority of analysts have it as a buy or hold. Good investments are long term. You say they are years away from robotaxis and autonomous vehicles being profitable,  but isn't that when you want to buy. I said earlier that Elon seemed to have too many irons in the fire. I used to think that was a bad thing. Now, looking forward, any segment of Tesla could take it to the next level. Energy generation and storage segment was up 67% with 10B in revenue. Optimus robots are being field tested for factory work. Robotaxis are in beta testing with FSD (Supervised) in Texas and California. And then there's the wild card. Elon Musk, as stated earlier can throw billions at any idea he or his employees come up with. What happens if they decide to build a hybrid or plug in hybrid?

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

mrussel1 said:

Evel K said:

The real value of Tesla will be realized with mass adoption of autonomous vehicles, robotaxi in the near term.  They were light years ahead of everyone in EV engineering so there's no reason to doubt they will lead in self driving vehicles. The loosening of government regulations will speed up their timeline for nationwide fully autonomous vehicles. If Elon lost 90% of his customer base by switching his political stance his company will still gain in value when robotaxis are deployed in every major city.

This is the only strategy that Team Elon and his inglorious defenders point to today.  Their trailing 12 EPS is $1.74!!  Their TTM PE is $163.  By contrast, Toyota's EPS is 28.76 with a PE of $28.67.  This makes it perfectly clear that TSLA continues to be way over-priced against their fundamentals.  At some point, very soon, they will start trading like a car manufacturer.  I would not want a strong position in the company when that happens. 

I know this talking point around robotaxis and autonomous vehicles is rampant in the right wing ecosystem  It appears you might inhabit that space.  But it's a pipe dream, particularly in the next decade.  Buyers continue to move away from pure EV and towards hybrid so moving to full autonomous is WAY OFF in the future.  Americans are not ready for that and the safety isn't in place either.  Last, robotaxis.. sure.  Do a little research on the power of the taxi unions in major cities across the US.  It took Uber a decade to break into the Vegas market.  

TSLA is a terrible investment.  

Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. I used to think Elon had too many irons in the fire, but never doubted his vision.  I'm not a financial adviser and this is not financial advice. Tesla has outperformed every company in the Mag 7 except Nvidia in the last 5 years. There could come a day when Optimus robots are building robots and everyone will regret letting emotions and politics dictate their portfolio. 

TSLA is priced like a tech start company, meaning investors were focused on the top line.  For mature companies, you are not priced on revenue, you are priced EBIT, or the equivalent.  When you are 15 years into public trading, you don't get to be a tech start-up anymore.  Some investors have stuck with TSLA, obviously, but look at their fundamentals.  They are years away from robo or autonomous being profitable.  So until then, they have to rely on the car manufacturing as their profit and cash engine since tech is nothing but a cash burn. 

Regarding the Mag 7, who cares?  What you did the last five years is irrelevant to your future position.  When your profits drop 71% in a quarter, that's a problem.  And when that drop is almost solely based on the political actions of your CEO, who somehow decided to alienate his customer base, that's even a bigger problem.  This is the right wing version of Bud Light, but even more painful since Bud Light was a brand within a much larger company.  

Someone said Tesla is a terrible investment.  The majority of analysts have it as a buy or hold. Good investments are long term. You say they are years away from robotaxis and autonomous vehicles being profitable,  but isn't that when you want to buy. I said earlier that Elon seemed to have too many irons in the fire. I used to think that was a bad thing. Now, looking forward, any segment of Tesla could take it to the next level. Energy generation and storage segment was up 67% with 10B in revenue. Optimus robots are being field tested for factory work. Robotaxis are in beta testing with FSD (Supervised) in Texas and California. And then there's the wild card. Elon Musk, as stated earlier can throw billions at any idea he or his employees come up with. What happens if they decide to build a hybrid or plug in hybrid?

I said it's a bad investment.  Their 12 month consensus target price is $289 per share.  It's at $280 right now.  Yes analysts are split between buy and hold, but there are sells in there too.  And Musk can't just "throw billions" when 40% of his net worth is wrapped up in TSLA stock.  You still have to find a way to monetize the technology and it isn't clear how you do that in the next decade.  

And yes, they could build a hybrid.  But who buys hybrids, MAGA guys?  Negative.  It goes back to him trashing his own brand and pissing off his natural consumer base.  

I'm not guaranteeing TSLA is falling apart, but you are not the first right wing person I've heard with these same arguments.  Sorry, there's many better places to invest that aren't so tied up politically.  

Vitalogensia said:

mrussel1 said:

Tim Simmons said:

I remember when the right wing got mad at Zelenskyy and Obama for not dressing properly.  And he wears tshirts and hats to cabinet meetings.  

He must say thank you a lot.