Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,380
    I think its part calculated enrichment, part he gets off on the power it shows. simply spews some bullshit then it tanks....
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    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,135
    mickeyrat said:
    I think it’s part calculated enrichment, part he gets off on the power it shows. simply spews some bullshit then it tanks....
    And eventually leads to some form of civil unrest so martial law and a suspension of civil liberties can be declared.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,895
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is hilarious lol - he's cutting tariffs for a month for cars coming in from Mexico and Canada. Just slinging shit at the wall and then trying to figure out how it benefits them most. Just fucking idiots everywhere lol

    And it sounds like they might make exceptions for agriculture pretty soon, which I'm guessing it Potash, because the US relies mostly on Canada to fertilize their crops.

    I'm kind of wondering what Canada's next move is.  At this rate Trump is going to carve out exceptions for everything that benefits the U.S., but it's also a pretty straightforward road map on where the pain points are, and Canada could implement export tariff's on that stuff to try and get all the tariff's removed.

    Very odd.  Sometimes he seems clever, which dastardly plans to make everyone cave, the next minute it feels like he's winging it.
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,662
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw

    Good article, thanks!  Especially interesting is what the author says about AI influence on how all this crazy economic restructuring will shake out.  Gonna be a bumpy road.

    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,380
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  

    then the depression......
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    mickeyrat said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  

    then the depression......
    So long as Trump doesn't destroy the current financial regulatory institutions, we are not really at risk for that.  We have much better controls in place today than in 1929.  There was no SEC, no OCC, not real oversight.  But again, he is trying to destroy shit. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  
    Absolutely. It's also one of those rare times where tinfoil hat people come remotely close to be right. There is something to be said to this because the people in charge are idiots & fascists, who happen to be billionaires. And when that's the case you have lazy people who think you can just shove a square peg into a round hole. 

    The biggest takeaway to me is the absolute long-term ramifications to international relations that are basically dead now. The rest of the globe will work with one another and go around us, which is the biggest loss at the end of the day imo. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    Also highly recommend following Kyla Scanlon!  Incredibly smart and astute economist, especially for her age.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528

  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Jearlpam0925 said:

    It’s all so ridiculous. 

    If you think tariffs work then do it. Right now we have all this market downside due to the uncertainty and he’s not really doing anything. Absurd. 
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,135
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:

    It’s all so ridiculous. 

    If you think tariffs work then do it. Right now we have all this market downside due to the uncertainty and he’s not really doing anything. Absurd. 
    Excuse me? Gettin shit done, bro! Burp.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    edited March 7
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  
    Absolutely. It's also one of those rare times where tinfoil hat people come remotely close to be right. There is something to be said to this because the people in charge are idiots & fascists, who happen to be billionaires. And when that's the case you have lazy people who think you can just shove a square peg into a round hole. 

    The biggest takeaway to me is the absolute long-term ramifications to international relations that are basically dead now. The rest of the globe will work with one another and go around us, which is the biggest loss at the end of the day imo. 
    Yeah. That's a great article. I that it's more likely he just loves tariffs like russ mentioned. Trump has never been the guy with the longest view in the room so I have a hard time believing he really gives a shit about the future. He's more concerned with the 24 hour news cycle. I DO think a lot of the people in his administration could be on board with this thinking though...but ultimately Trump won't be able to stomach it. Plus something will inevitably happen in the world to alter plans.




    This was one thig I have been thinking about even before reading this though. A recession super early in his term could very well end up helping them in the midterms and/or in '28 depending on how long it lasts. 

    1. Political timing: If a recession hits now, the recovery could be timing perfectly for the 2028 election cycle. Create a slump now, rebuild later, and take credit for the recovery just in time for reelection campaigns.


    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Tomorrow's jobs report could very well be an absolute bloodbath, by the way.

    So at least rates are coming down as a result of all this bullshit.
    www.myspace.com
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    This is a great article - give it a read:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
    I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times.  One of their people is making the same case.  If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy.  I have a hard time believing he is that strategic.  I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild.  He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.  

    If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.  
    Absolutely. It's also one of those rare times where tinfoil hat people come remotely close to be right. There is something to be said to this because the people in charge are idiots & fascists, who happen to be billionaires. And when that's the case you have lazy people who think you can just shove a square peg into a round hole. 

    The biggest takeaway to me is the absolute long-term ramifications to international relations that are basically dead now. The rest of the globe will work with one another and go around us, which is the biggest loss at the end of the day imo. 
    Yeah. That's a great article. I that it's more likely he just loves tariffs like russ mentioned. Trump has never been the guy with the longest view in the room so I have a hard time believing he really gives a shit about the future. He's more concerned with the 24 hour news cycle. I DO think a lot of the people in his administration could be on board with this thinking though...but ultimately Trump won't be able to stomach it. Plus something will inevitably happen in the world to alter plans.




    This was one thig I have been thinking about even before reading this though. A recession super early in his term could very well end up helping them in the midterms and/or in '28 depending on how long it lasts. 

    1. Political timing: If a recession hits now, the recovery could be timing perfectly for the 2028 election cycle. Create a slump now, rebuild later, and take credit for the recovery just in time for reelection campaigns.


    Yes, that's right, because, as we have clearly seen, people are absolute fucking idiots.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    The Juggler said:
    Tomorrow's jobs report could very well be an absolute bloodbath, by the way.

    So at least rates are coming down as a result of all this bullshit.
    And I dunno know about that man, certainly sounds like stagflation to me.
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,380
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Tomorrow's jobs report could very well be an absolute bloodbath, by the way.

    So at least rates are coming down as a result of all this bullshit.
    And I dunno know about that man, certainly sounds like stagflation to me.


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Tomorrow's jobs report could very well be an absolute bloodbath, by the way.

    So at least rates are coming down as a result of all this bullshit.
    And I dunno know about that man, certainly sounds like stagflation to me.
    10 year was heading down, along with mtg rates, on weaker economic news this month.

    Today's report was just okay though.  I think the federal job firings happened too late to be included though. Next month. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    Yeah housing is its own special animal - might be the only place rate may come down (and it can't be reiterated enough the Fed can do what they want, and doesn't necessarily mean they should). Rates will come down housing prices will just jump even more. Not that landowners will be bothered by that as we all love to espouse our love of wealth via land.

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