Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

mickeyrat · February 25

Walmart, America’s largest retailer, has long been a facilitator of fraud on a mass scale, a ProPublica investigation has found.

More than $1 billion in fraud losses were routed through the company’s financial services between 2013 and 2022.

(Published Jan. 2024)
https://propub.li/3ELszOH

mickeyrat · February 25

Coinbase was being investigated by the SEC so they:

- gave $75M a to pro-Trump PAC
- gave $1M to Trump’s inauguration
- sponsored an inaugural party
- hired Trump’s campaign manager
- listed Trump’s meme coin

And now the investigation is closed.

These are called bribes.
https://popular.info/p/how-to-buy-your-way-out-of-a-federal

Halifax2TheMax · February 25

mickeyrat said:

Coinbase was being investigated by the SEC so they:

- gave $75M a to pro-Trump PAC
- gave $1M to Trump’s inauguration
- sponsored an inaugural party
- hired Trump’s campaign manager
- listed Trump’s meme coin

And now the investigation is closed.

These are called bribes.
https://popular.info/p/how-to-buy-your-way-out-of-a-federal

But hey, Hunter’s laptop, amirite?

Halifax2TheMax · February 28

Who’s in? Can’t live a day without Amazon or Wally Mart? What impact will it have?

brianlux · February 28

Halifax2TheMax said:

Who’s in? Can’t live a day without Amazon or Wally Mart? What impact will it have?

100% I am so proud or Pearl Jam for doing this!

cincybearcat · February 28

brianlux said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Who’s in? Can’t live a day without Amazon or Wally Mart? What impact will it have?

100% I am so proud or Pearl Jam for doing this!

https://youtu.be/tHAPz8dzxE8?si=NSERvaP30-esx9bQ

mrussel1 · February 28

So here's the question, and I'd love some advice from our resident CPA ( @Gern Blansten ). I asked my wife and while she is a CPA focused on tax, it's really business tax and not personal so not sure where to go.

I'm pretty convinced we are going to have a recession starting this year, preceded by a correction as one would expect. As an investor that uses E-trade, and I haven't sold a stock in years. If I sell to try to move my money to safer harbor, I will have to pay 15% capital gains, I would presume, just to hide the money.

So is there a formula used for a retail investor to determine at what decline in stock price makes it worth it to sell (prior to the drop)? It can't just be 15% since you only pay tax on the gains.

If I'm thinking about this wrong, please tell me. I'm only 52, so it's not like I couldn't ride out a recession either.

mickeyrat · February 28

yay me. down 1200 on the day. have shown a net gain from jan 1 to yesterday. and today is -.30%

DE4173 · February 28

🙌

mrussel1 · March 4

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

tbergs · March 4

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

nicknyr15 · March 4

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.

mrussel1 · March 4

nicknyr15 said:

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.

You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.

it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.

tbergs · March 4

mrussel1 said:

nicknyr15 said:

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.

You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.

it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.

I think he's diabolically stupid to the extent he goes about chaotic practices that only the really wealthy or those with disposable income can risk making a move not fully knowing what his plan is. As for the current tariff plan, I don't see him sticking with it. He knows it's horrible for his image, but he'll stick with it no matter because that's what he does until he can claim some victory/win, even if it's bullshit and anyone with any intelligence can see through it. His base will still eat it up and the sycophants in office and in right wing media will pretend it was genius.

nicknyr15 · March 4

mrussel1 said:

nicknyr15 said:

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.

You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.

it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.

I agree. It’s impossible to know. I’m prepared to ride it out and buy a bunch once it seems we reached the bottom. Weird times.

mrussel1 · March 4

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

nicknyr15 said:

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.

I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.

What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.

Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.

You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.

it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.

I think he's diabolically stupid to the extent he goes about chaotic practices that only the really wealthy or those with disposable income can risk making a move not fully knowing what his plan is. As for the current tariff plan, I don't see him sticking with it. He knows it's horrible for his image, but he'll stick with it no matter because that's what he does until he can claim some victory/win, even if it's bullshit and anyone with any intelligence can see through it. His base will still eat it up and the sycophants in office and in right wing media will pretend it was genius.

I just don't understand the end game. Maybe he really is an anti-free trader. He was against TPP, but I thought that was just because Obama was negotiating it, and it was an easy populist position that even Bernie took. The first 24 hour trade war was pretty silly. But at least we knew he was demanding something, even though what he got was what Canada and Mexico already committed to doing. Is there an actual demand here? Or is the era of NA free trade legitimately over for the next few years?

PS - I should buy a tv today. Was meaning to get a new one and now feels like the right time..

Tim Simmons · March 4

He is aware that voters are generally myopic and most of this stuff will be forgotten in time (probably also why he floods the zone). He also knows voters just want to see him fixing problems, regardless if he is the one who created them. Sometimes I think thats his go to move and he knows it because a large swatch of US voters are ignorant to that stuff.

mrussel1 · March 4

Tim Simmons said:

He is aware that voters are generally myopic and most of this stuff will be forgotten in time (probably also why he floods the zone). He also knows voters just want to see him fixing problems, regardless if he is the one who created them. Sometimes I think thats his go to move and he knows it because a large swatch of US voters are ignorant to that stuff.

I agree that he often breaks something, and then claims to fix it. It's definitely a go-to strategy.

But I don't think creating a recession and solving it is as easy to gaslight as his other tricks.

mrussel1 · March 5

Yet another big, red warning signal about the coming recession.

Currently the Atlanta Fed is predicting -2.8% GDP 'growth'. That is awful. The Trump admin is going to claim it's loss of gov't job, but the numbers are already reported between gov't and private. So that delineation exists. And now, look at the private employment data...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hiring-slowed-in-february-as-economic-uncertainty-created-hesitancy-to-add-jobs-last-month-adp-data-shows-135002874.html

Jearlpam0925 · March 5

This is hilarious lol - he's cutting tariffs for a month for cars coming in from Mexico and Canada. Just slinging shit at the wall and then trying to figure out how it benefits them most. Just fucking idiots everywhere lol

Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

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