2024 US Election - Predictions

cincybearcat said:

You know I have concerns about a lot of things.  I know Trump will do crazy things.  I do worry about my retirement, inflation if tariffs out of control and if so-called trump tax breaks will raise my taxes again.

But the first thought in my head is how awful it must feel if you are Ukrainian.  You are likely to be abandoned and Trump will allow his daddy to steal land....crazy.

This is the issue that bothers me the most. For most domestic issues there are controls like the senate and the filibuster. But no such controls exist for Ukraine and NATO. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

Swamped the vote? At the current count he didn’t reach what he had in 2020. 

Because he probably didn't reach that vote count in 2020. Look at the vote totals for the two major party candidates in the last three elections....

2016:
Clinton: 66M
Trump: 63M
Total: 129M

2020:
Biden: 81M
Trump: 74M
Total: 155M

2024 (as of now)
Harris: 66M
Trump: 71M
Total: 137M 

So the total goes up 26M in 2020, and then goes down 18M in 2024? Where did these voters come from in 2020, and where did they go in 2024? I contend that both Biden and Trump's 2020 vote counts are way off and it's due to all the mail-in ballots from the pandemic. I can see a few million people voting for the first and only time due to mass mail-in voting, but not 26 million.

Trump had no evidence that he was cheated like he claimed, but the idea that the 2020 election was "safe and secure" is ludicrous. I think there were nefarious actors on both sides counting mail-in ballots multiple times.  How else did Biden get so many more votes than Clinton and Harris? And how did Trump, who was at his weakest point electorally in 2020, get more votes then than in the two elections he won?

cincybearcat said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

do you believe in climate change?

Are you an American Citizen?

Funny, with climate not being restrained to national borders.

Do you believe in climate change?

Just build a wall

Pollution is notorious for digging tunnels under walls.

jimjam1982 said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

do you believe in climate change?

Are you an American Citizen?

Funny, with climate not being restrained to national borders.

Do you believe in climate change?

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon over the existence of earth it has happened thousands of times. It is not new or special. 

If you believe climate change is man made do you understand the only solution is to reduce the population by about 3 billion? That's not the winning platform you think it is.

Say that is true. Shouldn’t that be a top priority for research on how to combat it before it is too late. We should be allocating tons of funding towards this research instead of ignoring it. 

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

Swamped the vote? At the current count he didn’t reach what he had in 2020. 

Because he probably didn't reach that vote count in 2020. Look at the vote totals for the two major party candidates in the last three elections....

2016:
Clinton: 66M
Trump: 63M
Total: 129M

2020:
Biden: 81M
Trump: 74M
Total: 155M

2024 (as of now)
Harris: 66M
Trump: 71M
Total: 137M 

So the total goes up 26M in 2020, and then goes down 18M in 2024? Where did these voters come from in 2020, and where did they go in 2024? I contend that both Biden and Trump's 2020 vote counts are way off and it's due to all the mail-in ballots from the pandemic. I can see a few million people voting for the first and only time due to mass mail-in voting, but not 26 million.

Trump had no evidence that he was cheated like he claimed, but the idea that the 2020 election was "safe and secure" is ludicrous. I think there were nefarious actors on both sides counting mail-in ballots multiple times.  How else did Biden get so many more votes than Clinton and Harris? And how did Trump, who was at his weakest point electorally in 2020, get more votes then than in the two elections he won?

I think the advent of ballot-harvesting was huge. People that would not normally leave home to vote were able to just provide their ballots to someone who drove them over. Looks like there were also plenty of Trump voters there. Now that we're "post-covid" people generally have to go and vote.  They may have even been scarred off by the big numbers (i.e., big lines this time) from last time. 

I'd say Trump was at his most polarizing at that time and I that we somehow lost interest and forgot about it. 

I'll throw in Biden's connection to Obama and that polls have shown that nearly 40% of people do not think women should be president.

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

Swamped the vote? At the current count he didn’t reach what he had in 2020. 

Because he probably didn't reach that vote count in 2020. Look at the vote totals for the two major party candidates in the last three elections....

2016:
Clinton: 66M
Trump: 63M
Total: 129M

2020:
Biden: 81M
Trump: 74M
Total: 155M

2024 (as of now)
Harris: 66M
Trump: 71M
Total: 137M 

So the total goes up 26M in 2020, and then goes down 18M in 2024? Where did these voters come from in 2020, and where did they go in 2024? I contend that both Biden and Trump's 2020 vote counts are way off and it's due to all the mail-in ballots from the pandemic. I can see a few million people voting for the first and only time due to mass mail-in voting, but not 26 million.

Trump had no evidence that he was cheated like he claimed, but the idea that the 2020 election was "safe and secure" is ludicrous. I think there were nefarious actors on both sides counting mail-in ballots multiple times.  How else did Biden get so many more votes than Clinton and Harris? And how did Trump, who was at his weakest point electorally in 2020, get more votes then than in the two elections he won?

So how did trump get 71M (and counting) this go round? By your logic that figure is also inflated by 8M. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Gern Blansten said:

Choccoloccotide said:

Just think for a minute.  If the dems wouldn’t have cheated in 2020, Trump would only have 2 months left to be President.  Now he’ll be in the Oval till 2029.  How does that feel?

lol...so why didn't they cheat this time? Why give up the oval? Why give up the senate? 

Comments like this are laughable. I needed that.

We swamped the vote.  To big to rig.

Swamped the vote? At the current count he didn’t reach what he had in 2020. 

Because he probably didn't reach that vote count in 2020. Look at the vote totals for the two major party candidates in the last three elections....

2016:
Clinton: 66M
Trump: 63M
Total: 129M

2020:
Biden: 81M
Trump: 74M
Total: 155M

2024 (as of now)
Harris: 66M
Trump: 71M
Total: 137M 

So the total goes up 26M in 2020, and then goes down 18M in 2024? Where did these voters come from in 2020, and where did they go in 2024? I contend that both Biden and Trump's 2020 vote counts are way off and it's due to all the mail-in ballots from the pandemic. I can see a few million people voting for the first and only time due to mass mail-in voting, but not 26 million.

Trump had no evidence that he was cheated like he claimed, but the idea that the 2020 election was "safe and secure" is ludicrous. I think there were nefarious actors on both sides counting mail-in ballots multiple times.  How else did Biden get so many more votes than Clinton and Harris? And how did Trump, who was at his weakest point electorally in 2020, get more votes then than in the two elections he won?

So how did trump get 71M (and counting) this go round? By your logic that figure is also inflated by 8M. 

I can’t explain it, but the absence of an explanation doesn’t give credence to nefariousness. 

I don't think the 2020 election was stolen, but playing devil's advocate and answering the question.
Based on those numbers, 71M doesn't seem far off. You can expect to gain a few million voters each election cycle, There are only 4 million more total votes between 2016 and now, so within reason of what you'd expect to see.

If someone were to rig the election, they wouldn't add 26 million votes. You just need 10 or 20,000 in a few select key states. Most elections are won by 2 or 3 swing states. They wouldn't be flooding it with 26 million votes. They'd be pushing 10,000 votes here and 10,000 there in states with close elections.