** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **
Comments
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say what you will about this guy's methodology, and he has only been wrong with one election; Al Gore. and that was debatable anyway.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/video/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction-lcl-digvid
and NEW United States President, KAMALAAAAAAA.....HARRRRR-ISSSSSSSBy The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.0 -
Emphasis on the AAAAAAAAA and particularly the SSSSSSSSSSSSSS!HughFreakingDillon said:say what you will about this guy's methodology, and he has only been wrong with one election; Al Gore. and that was debatable anyway.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/video/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction-lcl-digvid
and NEW United States President, KAMALAAAAAAA.....HARRRRR-ISSSSSSS09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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https://www.threads.net/@acynig/post/C_mJJuoSc_t/?xmt=AQGziVG1UY359F7Rq6fpvOClpgCnyqs1BzKebaviALGXCw
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
Halifax2TheMax said:
Emphasis on the AAAAAAAAA and particularly the SSSSSSSSSSSSSS!HughFreakingDillon said:say what you will about this guy's methodology, and he has only been wrong with one election; Al Gore. and that was debatable anyway.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/video/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction-lcl-digvid
and NEW United States President, KAMALAAAAAAA.....HARRRRR-ISSSSSSS
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njhaley1 said:
Followed by Darth Cheney himself:brianlux said:Gern Blansten said:
Anyone that opposes trump is ok in my book.brianlux said:Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.Tough crowd here sometimes, lol
Yes!
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/former-republican-vice-president-dick-cheney-vote-harris/story?id=113467122Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
That heart transplant must've worked!
Haha, good one! At the very least , it appears to have improved the blood flow to his brain.Yet another step in the right direction.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
I hope Kamala straight up asks POOTWH, yo, “how’s it feel to have a cap in yo ass, homey?” Feelin’ street cred? Got your homies, the bikers? Yo! Are your Boyz in da house? Point ‘em out, yo!
Watch POOTWH crumble. C-r-u-m-b-l-e. It’d be worth it. For democracy.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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I absolutely hope that doesn’t happen.0
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😂😂 seriouslyTim Simmons said:I absolutely hope that doesn’t happen.0 -
I would like her to say something like "I'm glad your earlobe has fully healed." hahahawww.myspace.com0
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She needs to hammer him on the border bill he killed and the cemetery fiasco and this administration accomplishments and point out how his administration added 7 trillion to the deficitjesus greets me looks just like me ....0
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Def point out that he’s the one who got Roe overturned that’s one that will get him garbling his wordsjesus greets me looks just like me ....0
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mrussel1 said:
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.JesseMcK said:
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.It’s insane how close this election is, given that Mr red hat sounds 100% like he is slipping and losing his cognitive abilities, is such an outrageous bully,yet they stick with him. The only thing the gop has given America the last ten years is an outrageously conservative court, massive restrictions on women’s rights, and a tax cut for the wealthy.
Not sure why any independent or undecided in a million years would look at that record and be inclined to even consider voting GOP. Yet the state polls are 50/50.
Assuming the GOP wins GA NC AZ, and the Dems win WI NV and let’s say MI…it comes down to PA which 538 has as 50/50. With Shapiro and two dem senators in PA this is perplexing. The Dems MUST win either PA or MI, don’t see any other realistic path. Unreal.
Whats impressive about Harris campaign is they are going to exurban and rural regions to campaign. This is the best democratic team since Obama. Let’s hope it’s enough.0 -
The “other.”Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.JesseMcK said:
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.It’s insane how close this election is, given that Mr red hat sounds 100% like he is slipping and losing his cognitive abilities, is such an outrageous bully,yet they stick with him. The only thing the gop has given America the last ten years is an outrageously conservative court, massive restrictions on women’s rights, and a tax cut for the wealthy.
Not sure why any independent or undecided in a million years would look at that record and be inclined to even consider voting GOP. Yet the state polls are 50/50.
Assuming the GOP wins GA NC AZ, and the Dems win WI NV and let’s say MI…it comes down to PA which 538 has as 50/50. With Shapiro and two dem senators in PA this is perplexing. The Dems MUST win either PA or MI, don’t see any other realistic path. Unreal.
Whats impressive about Harris campaign is they are going to exurban and rural regions to campaign. This is the best democratic team since Obama. Let’s hope it’s enough.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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The pessimist would point out that Silver was also the outlier in 2016The Juggler said:
Yeah it's a different landscape since Dobbs for sure.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
Should be noted that Silver's model is the outlier compared to the others, which more reflect 538's estimates. I've also seen that Silver is including more republican leading pollsters in PA that do not even make the cut for 538's rankings.0 -
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0
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Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.brianlux said:I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
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It's not the polling numbers that bother me so much as it is the polls themselves, the fact that they do these things and we are supposed to believe them and it's all a crock of shit anyway.Halifax2TheMax said:
Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.brianlux said:I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?Tim Simmons said:Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
As I said above, Tim. Plus, what I want to know is, how is it even remotely possible that this is a race? How is it even remotely possible that a man who has lost his mind, and that everyone knows- if not cognitively, at least deep down inside- is an idiot, a liar, a fool, how is it that this man is even a contender in this race? I cannot fathom that as a possibility.PS, I do not know what MOE is. Larry and Curly's buddy?"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
brianlux said:
It's not the polling numbers that bother me so much as it is the polls themselves, the fact that they do these things and we are supposed to believe them and it's all a crock of shit anyway.Halifax2TheMax said:
Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.brianlux said:I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?Tim Simmons said:Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
As I said above, Tim. Plus, what I want to know is, how is it even remotely possible that this is a race? How is it even remotely possible that a man who has lost his mind, and that everyone knows- if not cognitively, at least deep down inside- is an idiot, a liar, a fool, how is it that this man is even a contender in this race? I cannot fathom that as a possibility.PS, I do not know what MOE is. Larry and Curly's buddy?
margin of error
_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140
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