Human population: Is it a problem? If so, what are the solutions?
Comments
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And pollute
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Oh well...I shall not worry about something that I have no control over ...PJ_Soul said:
Haha, well if the technology takes off, and it absolutely will eventually, and absolutely should because the meat industry is absolutely destroying the environment, then have fun eating $30 steaks while boasting about how you still choose the option that is terrible for the planet and that will quickly be viewed as monstrous in terms of animal welfare.Meltdown99 said:I love eggs...one of my favourite foods.
And I'm not eating any meat grown in a lab...
As water and land becomes more and more scarce, this technology will become and more and more necessary. Pretty soon you'll either eat meat grown in a lab or be a vegetarian.Give Peas A Chance…0 -
China records 1st population fall in decades as births dropBy KEN MORITSUGU1 hour ago
BEIJING (AP) — China’s population shrank for the first time in decades last year as its birthrate plunged, official figures showed Tuesday, adding to pressure on leaders to keep the economy growing despite an aging workforce and at a time of rising tension with the U.S.
Despite the official numbers, some experts believe China's population has been in decline for a few years — a dramatic turn in a country that once sought to control such growth through a one-child policy.
Many wealthy countries are struggling with how to respond to aging workforces, which can be a drag on economic growth, but some experts said the demographic change will be especially difficult to manage in an developing economy like China's.
“China has become older before it has become rich,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer and expert on Chinese population trends at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday that the country had 850,000 fewer people at the end of 2022 than the previous year. The tally includes only the population of mainland China, excluding Hong Kong and Macao as well as foreign residents.
Over 1 million fewer babies were born than the previous year amid a slowing economy and widespread pandemic lockdowns, according to official figures. The bureau reported 9.56 million births in 2022; deaths ticked up to 10.41 million.
It wasn’t immediately clear if the population figures were affected by the COVID-19 outbreak that was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan before spreading around the world. China has been accused by some specialists of underreporting deaths from the virus by blaming them on underlying conditions, but no estimates of the actual number have been published.
China’s population has begun to decline nine to 10 years earlier than Chinese officials predicted and the United Nation projected, said Yi. The country has long been the world’s most populous nation, but is expected to soon be overtaken by India, if it has not already.
China has sought to bolster its population since officially ending its one-child policy in 2016. Since then, China has tried to encourage families to have second or even third children, with little success, reflecting attitudes in much of east Asia where birth rates have fallen precipitously. In China, the expense of raising children in cities is often cited as a cause.
Yi said that, based on his own research, China’s population has actually been declining since 2018, showing the population crisis is “much more severe” than previously thought. China now has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, comparable only to Taiwan and South Korea, he said.
That means China’s “real demographic crisis is beyond imagination and that all of China’s past economic, social, defense and foreign policies were based on faulty demographic data,” Yi told The Associated Press.
China's looming economic crisis will be worse than Japan's, where years of low growth have been blamed in part on a shrinking population, Yi said.
On top of the demographic challenges, China is increasingly in economic competition with the U.S., which has blocked the access of some Chinese companies to American technology, citing national security and fair competition concerns.
The last time China is believed to have experienced a population decline was during the Great Leap Forward, a disastrous drive for collective farming and industrialization launched by by then-leader Mao Zedong at the end of the 1950s that produced a massive famine that killed tens of millions of people.
China's statistics bureau said the working-age population between 16 and 59 years old totaled 875.56 million, accounting for 62% of the national population, while those aged 65 and older totaled 209.78 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total.
If handled correctly, a declining population does not necessarily translate to a weaker economy, said Stuart Gietel-Basten, professor of social science at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.
“It’s a big psychological issue. Probably the biggest,” Gietel-Basten said.
According to the data from the statistics bureau, men outnumbered women by 722.06 million to 689.69 million, the bureau reported, a result of the one-child policy and a traditional preference for male offspring to carry on the family name.
The numbers also showed increasing urbanization in a country that traditionally had been largely rural. Over 2022, the permanent urban population increased by 6.46 million to reach 920.71 million, or 65.22%.
The United Nations estimated last year that the world’s population reached 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023. India's last census was scheduled for 2022 but was postponed amid the pandemic.
In a report released on World Population Day, the U.N. also said global population growth fell below 1% in 2020 for the first time since 1950.
Also Tuesday, the statistics bureau released data showing China’s economic growth fell to its second-lowest level in at least four decades last year under pressure from anti-virus controls and a real estate slump.
The world’s No. 2 economy grew by 3% in 2022, less than half of the previous year’s 8.1%, the data showed.
That was the second-lowest annual rate since at least the 1970s, after the drop to 2.4% in 2020 at the start of the pandemic, although activity is reviving after the lifting of restrictions that kept millions of people at home and sparked protests.
Gietel-Basten said China has been adapting to demographic change for years by devising policies to move its economic activities up the value chain of innovation, pointing to the development of semiconductor manufacturing and the financial services industry.
“The population of India is much younger and is growing. But there are many reasons why you wouldn’t necessarily automatically bet your entire fortune on India surpassing China economically in the very near future,” he said.
Among India's many challenges is a level of female participation in the work force that is much lower than China’s, Gietel-Basten said.
“Whatever the population you have, it’s not what you’ve got but it’s what you do with it … to a degree,” he said.
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Associated Press writers Huizhong Wu in Taipei, Taiwan, and Kanis Leung in Hong Kong contributed to this report.
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mickeyrat said:China records 1st population fall in decades as births dropBy KEN MORITSUGU1 hour ago
BEIJING (AP) — China’s population shrank for the first time in decades last year as its birthrate plunged, official figures showed Tuesday, adding to pressure on leaders to keep the economy growing despite an aging workforce and at a time of rising tension with the U.S.
Despite the official numbers, some experts believe China's population has been in decline for a few years — a dramatic turn in a country that once sought to control such growth through a one-child policy.
Many wealthy countries are struggling with how to respond to aging workforces, which can be a drag on economic growth, but some experts said the demographic change will be especially difficult to manage in an developing economy like China's.
“China has become older before it has become rich,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer and expert on Chinese population trends at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday that the country had 850,000 fewer people at the end of 2022 than the previous year. The tally includes only the population of mainland China, excluding Hong Kong and Macao as well as foreign residents.
Over 1 million fewer babies were born than the previous year amid a slowing economy and widespread pandemic lockdowns, according to official figures. The bureau reported 9.56 million births in 2022; deaths ticked up to 10.41 million.
It wasn’t immediately clear if the population figures were affected by the COVID-19 outbreak that was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan before spreading around the world. China has been accused by some specialists of underreporting deaths from the virus by blaming them on underlying conditions, but no estimates of the actual number have been published.
China’s population has begun to decline nine to 10 years earlier than Chinese officials predicted and the United Nation projected, said Yi. The country has long been the world’s most populous nation, but is expected to soon be overtaken by India, if it has not already.
China has sought to bolster its population since officially ending its one-child policy in 2016. Since then, China has tried to encourage families to have second or even third children, with little success, reflecting attitudes in much of east Asia where birth rates have fallen precipitously. In China, the expense of raising children in cities is often cited as a cause.
Yi said that, based on his own research, China’s population has actually been declining since 2018, showing the population crisis is “much more severe” than previously thought. China now has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, comparable only to Taiwan and South Korea, he said.
That means China’s “real demographic crisis is beyond imagination and that all of China’s past economic, social, defense and foreign policies were based on faulty demographic data,” Yi told The Associated Press.
China's looming economic crisis will be worse than Japan's, where years of low growth have been blamed in part on a shrinking population, Yi said.
On top of the demographic challenges, China is increasingly in economic competition with the U.S., which has blocked the access of some Chinese companies to American technology, citing national security and fair competition concerns.
The last time China is believed to have experienced a population decline was during the Great Leap Forward, a disastrous drive for collective farming and industrialization launched by by then-leader Mao Zedong at the end of the 1950s that produced a massive famine that killed tens of millions of people.
China's statistics bureau said the working-age population between 16 and 59 years old totaled 875.56 million, accounting for 62% of the national population, while those aged 65 and older totaled 209.78 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total.
If handled correctly, a declining population does not necessarily translate to a weaker economy, said Stuart Gietel-Basten, professor of social science at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.
“It’s a big psychological issue. Probably the biggest,” Gietel-Basten said.
According to the data from the statistics bureau, men outnumbered women by 722.06 million to 689.69 million, the bureau reported, a result of the one-child policy and a traditional preference for male offspring to carry on the family name.
The numbers also showed increasing urbanization in a country that traditionally had been largely rural. Over 2022, the permanent urban population increased by 6.46 million to reach 920.71 million, or 65.22%.
The United Nations estimated last year that the world’s population reached 8 billion on Nov. 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023. India's last census was scheduled for 2022 but was postponed amid the pandemic.
In a report released on World Population Day, the U.N. also said global population growth fell below 1% in 2020 for the first time since 1950.
Also Tuesday, the statistics bureau released data showing China’s economic growth fell to its second-lowest level in at least four decades last year under pressure from anti-virus controls and a real estate slump.
The world’s No. 2 economy grew by 3% in 2022, less than half of the previous year’s 8.1%, the data showed.
That was the second-lowest annual rate since at least the 1970s, after the drop to 2.4% in 2020 at the start of the pandemic, although activity is reviving after the lifting of restrictions that kept millions of people at home and sparked protests.
Gietel-Basten said China has been adapting to demographic change for years by devising policies to move its economic activities up the value chain of innovation, pointing to the development of semiconductor manufacturing and the financial services industry.
“The population of India is much younger and is growing. But there are many reasons why you wouldn’t necessarily automatically bet your entire fortune on India surpassing China economically in the very near future,” he said.
Among India's many challenges is a level of female participation in the work force that is much lower than China’s, Gietel-Basten said.
“Whatever the population you have, it’s not what you’ve got but it’s what you do with it … to a degree,” he said.
___
Associated Press writers Huizhong Wu in Taipei, Taiwan, and Kanis Leung in Hong Kong contributed to this report.
I remember the last time that happened in China quite some time ago. It was fairly big news is a world of rapid population growth. Too bad we don't see this more often. but good for China!
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Pandemics also lower the population. Nature knows when to do it
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Well OK, now I am confused. Apparently China is NOT happy about their falling population growth rate and are trying to boost it. I read that here:"China’s government has for several years been scrambling to encourage people to have more children, and stave off the looming demographic crisis caused by an ageing population. New policies have sought to ease the financial and social burdens of child rearing, or to actively incentivise having children via subsidies and tax breaks. Some provinces or cities have announced cash payments to parents who have a second or third child. Last week the city of Shenzhen announced financial incentives that translate into a total of 37,500 yuan ($5,550) for a three-child family."What the hell is a "demographic crisis"? The article does little to explain this and it makes no sense. I just don't get it.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Aging population with not enough people to fill retiring population and support economic growth through additional new jobs. I think I read that 29% of their current population is age 65+. The WaPo article I read talked about all the issues, from the failed 1 child policy and lopsided male/female demo ratios, to unaffordable child care and lack of pension/retirement options. Sounds like a mess and something that will allow India to move ahead of China.brianlux said:Well OK, now I am confused. Apparently China is NOT happy about their falling population growth rate and are trying to boost it. I read that here:"China’s government has for several years been scrambling to encourage people to have more children, and stave off the looming demographic crisis caused by an ageing population. New policies have sought to ease the financial and social burdens of child rearing, or to actively incentivise having children via subsidies and tax breaks. Some provinces or cities have announced cash payments to parents who have a second or third child. Last week the city of Shenzhen announced financial incentives that translate into a total of 37,500 yuan ($5,550) for a three-child family."What the hell is a "demographic crisis"? The article does little to explain this and it makes no sense. I just don't get it.It's a hopeless situation...0 -
I'm guessing "demographic crisis" means not enough males, brian.By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.0
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Not enough females. From WaPo.HughFreakingDillon said:I'm guessing "demographic crisis" means not enough males, brian.
Among the policy’s many unintended consequences has been a steep gender imbalance, as pregnant women had sex-selective abortions. That resulted in China having a sex ratio of 104.69 men to every 100 women as of 2022.
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Offspring numbers do tend to be higher for females...HughFreakingDillon said:I'm guessing "demographic crisis" means not enough males, brian.Halifax2TheMax said:
Not enough females. From WaPo.HughFreakingDillon said:I'm guessing "demographic crisis" means not enough males, brian.
Among the policy’s many unintended consequences has been a steep gender imbalance, as pregnant women had sex-selective abortions. That resulted in China having a sex ratio of 104.69 men to every 100 women as of 2022.
...but we do like to fuck with Mother Nature, don't we!tbergs said:
Aging population with not enough people to fill retiring population and support economic growth through additional new jobs. I think I read that 29% of their current population is age 65+. The WaPo article I read talked about all the issues, from the failed 1 child policy and lopsided male/female demo ratios, to unaffordable child care and lack of pension/retirement options. Sounds like a mess and something that will allow India to move ahead of China.brianlux said:Well OK, now I am confused. Apparently China is NOT happy about their falling population growth rate and are trying to boost it. I read that here:"China’s government has for several years been scrambling to encourage people to have more children, and stave off the looming demographic crisis caused by an ageing population. New policies have sought to ease the financial and social burdens of child rearing, or to actively incentivise having children via subsidies and tax breaks. Some provinces or cities have announced cash payments to parents who have a second or third child. Last week the city of Shenzhen announced financial incentives that translate into a total of 37,500 yuan ($5,550) for a three-child family."What the hell is a "demographic crisis"? The article does little to explain this and it makes no sense. I just don't get it.
That will be a problem here in the U.S. as so many old fuckers are retiring (which is why I still sort of have a job selling used books because I don't want to be referred to as an "old fucker"!). But the fact is, that's just another consequence of a population that got out of hand. The elderly will struggle into old age, but what can we do about that? Have lots more babies in a world that cannot sustain 8, 9, 10 billion people? Not a good choice! Balances have to be restored, or the consequences will ultimately be more and more harsh as time goes by.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Yah it's a challenge. Most of our systems are designed to thrive through neverending population growth. Most of them aren't designed to function well with a flat or declining population.It's why here in Canada our successive governments (Both the Conservatives and Liberals) started to drastically increase immigration.Problem being the planet can't support infinite population growth.. eventually it's going to hit a wall. Even at 8 billion we seem to be consuming resources faster than the earth can replenish them. I often wonder if the population flattened out, would we such much improvement. Scary stuff.Post edited by Zod on0
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Zod said:Yah it's a challenge. Most of our systems are designed to thrive through neverending population growth. Most of them are designed to function well with a flat or declining population.It's why here in Canada our successive governments (Both the Conservatives and Liberals) started to drastically increase immigration.Problem being the planet can't support infinite population growth.. eventually it's going to hit a wall. Even at 8 billion we seem to be consuming resources faster than the earth can replenish them. I often wonder if the population flattened out, would we such much improvement. Scary stuff.
I think you nailed it, Zod.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
China screwed themselves years ago with he 1 child thing and everyone wanted a son, so there is that.
They need or could, open up their borders and have an influx of immigrants to help their stagnated population growth. That would help in the short of things.0 -
tempo_n_groove said:China screwed themselves years ago with he 1 child thing and everyone wanted a son, so there is that.
They need or could, open up their borders and have an influx of immigrants to help their stagnated population growth. That would help in the short of things.
Good points. I kind of doubt they will open their borders though. That would be surprising.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Why worry Mars will be ready in 300 years!jesus greets me looks just like me ....0
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I always think of Robocop, "You can now enjoy the sun!" and have that sunblock on you, lol.josevolution said:Why worry Mars will be ready in 300 years!
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I guess the scary thing is, is how big would their population be if they hadn't done that? More people on the Earth probably means as a planet we'd be struggling a bit more with the even larger population?tempo_n_groove said:China screwed themselves years ago with he 1 child thing and everyone wanted a son, so there is that.
They need or could, open up their borders and have an influx of immigrants to help their stagnated population growth. That would help in the short of things.
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Interesting thing about this is China still has tons of land they can do stuff with yet they gave the US shit over turning corn into a biofuel stating that the corn should be used to feed the world, I'm paraphrasing that, but I find it funny that they have a huge population and don't plan for farming for the future. I mean they sought out every other natural resource out there but didn't plan on farming to feed the people?Zod said:
I guess the scary thing is, is how big would their population be if they hadn't done that? More people on the Earth probably means as a planet we'd be struggling a bit more with the even larger population?tempo_n_groove said:China screwed themselves years ago with he 1 child thing and everyone wanted a son, so there is that.
They need or could, open up their borders and have an influx of immigrants to help their stagnated population growth. That would help in the short of things.0 -
Halifax2TheMax said:
Not enough females. From WaPo.HughFreakingDillon said:I'm guessing "demographic crisis" means not enough males, brian.
Among the policy’s many unintended consequences has been a steep gender imbalance, as pregnant women had sex-selective abortions. That resulted in China having a sex ratio of 104.69 men to every 100 women as of 2022.Definitely not enough females, and that is because they value boys over girls, so abort female fetuses. Now they are paying the price.... which I'm kind of happy about.Clearly China's population needs to be reduced if the priority is environment and resources. But the priority is money. So they want the population to grow, not shrink.With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
moving to more tech oriented economy. economic growth comes from a growing buyer class.Threats, advantages seen in China's shrinking populationBy KEN MORITSUGUYesterday
BEIJING (AP) — For seven decades, China's Communist Party has ruled the world's most populous country. As the nation's population crests and begins to shrink, experts say, it will face challenges ranging from supporting the elderly to filling the ranks of its military.
Population growth has been slowing for years, but the announcement Tuesday that the country's population fell by about 850,000 in 2022 came sooner than earlier projections.
“Those developments ... may well feed domestic challenges at home and strategic challenges abroad. The Party, in short, may be in for a rough go," said Mike Mazza, an analyst of Chinese military modernization at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
Others are less pessimistic.
“China’s increasingly becoming a higher-tech nation, so concentrating on improving the educational system, particularly in impoverished rural areas, and even in cities, is vital. So as well is increasing productivity. Wealthier people will buy more, which also increases GDP,” said June Teufel Dreyer, a Chinese politics specialist at the University of Miami.
With the trend expected to continue, the U.N. estimates China’s population will fall from 1.41 billion to about 1.31 billion by 2050 and keep shrinking from there.
Beijing previously tried to rein in its population growth. Worries that China's population was getting too big prompted it to adopt its “one-child policy” in the late 1970s. Beijing says the policy prevented 400 million additional births, but demographers disagree about how much of the drop in birth rates is explained by the policy.
The one-child policy came on top of existing societal changes, notably the flocking of people to live in cities during the economic boom, demographers say.
“Of course, the one-child policy had an effect,” said Sabine Henning, who heads the demographic change section at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific in Bangkok. “But lifestyles have changed. Living expenses have increased so people are less inclined to have children. All of this has resulted ... in a further decline in fertility since the one-child policy stopped.”
Experience in Europe and Japan shows how difficult it is to change mindsets and reverse the decline with government incentives and campaigns.
Faced with a crashing birthrate, the policy was abandoned seven years ago, but efforts to encourage bigger families have been largely unsuccessful, like similar efforts in other countries. Europe and Japan have also struggled to change mindsets and reverse the decline with government incentives and campaigns.
“It amazes me how everyone seems to agree that the planet already has too many people whose demands for even the basics of existence like food, water and shelter are placing intolerable demands on the ecosystem — yet as soon as the population of a country begins to decline, its government reacts with near panic,” Dreyer said.
Beijing's most immediate demographic challenge is an aging population: Tuesday’s figures showed almost 20% of the population is now age 60 or older, and Chinese estimates say the number will rise to 30%, or more than 400 million people, by 2035.
Similar changes took decades in Europe.
“They had more time to adjust, whereas it’s happening much faster in in Asia,” said Srinivas Tata, director of the social development division at the U.N. commission in Bangkok.
To support this population of retirees, China may increase the retirement age, currently 50-55 for women and 60 for men.
The demographic news comes as China’s economy is still recovering from the three-year struggle against COVID-19, which not only battered the economy but sparked rare antigovernment and anti-party protest.
Even with a shrinking population, China maintains considerable economic advantages over emerging manufacturing rivals such as Vietnam and India, which is set to overtake China as most populous this year. China has superior infrastructure and long-standing private sector relationships that it can rely on for years to come, said Mazza.
China’s political system also plays a role, said Mary Gallagher, a scholar of Chinese politics at the University of Michigan.
“Becoming the workshop of the world... requires a political system that can take advantage of that cheap young labor without much regard for the laborers’ political and civil rights,” Gallagher said.
U.S. economic sanctions and its push to block Beijing’s access to cutting-edge processors and chip-making technology are further complicating efforts at recovery.
The Party also faces a challenge finding qualified recruits for its military, the 2 million-member People's Liberation Army, experts say.
“It is doubtful that the PLA is getting the best and the brightest, given that families who have the means will discourage military service,” said Daniel Blumenthal, director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on East Asian security issues and US-China relations.
Blumenthal warns, however: “That said, if (Chinese leader Xi Jinping) decides he wants a war over Taiwan he will not be deterred by caring about one-child families.”
Some American observers argue that these challenges could prompt Beijing to make aggressive moves sooner. With the U.S. refocused on the Indo-Pacific, China’s economy slowing and the population shrinking, some in Washington see Beijing as facing a narrowing window for military action against the self-governing island that it claims as its territory.
Still, the effects may not be known for some time.
“Since demographic changes happen slowly, at least at the start of the turn, their effect on China’s standing and influence globally will take time to happen,” said Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the London University School of Oriental and African Studies and a longtime observer of Chinese political and social trends.
President Xi is committed to his program of achieving “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049, Tsang said — even if his country may be 100 million people smaller by then.
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