Ukraine

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

https://archive.ph/2QBFz#selection-835.0-835.15

"Are we at war in Ukraine? If we swapped places — if Russian apparatchiks admitted helping to kill American generals or sink a U.S. Navy vessel — I doubt we’d find much ambiguity there. At the very least, what the United States is doing in Ukraine is not not war. If we have so far avoided calling it war, and can continue to do so, maybe that’s only because we’ve become so uncertain of the meaning of the word."

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/06/19/ukraine-parliament-passes-new-laws-seeking-to-purge-russian-culture/

"Ukraine’s Parliament passed two bills that will restrict Russian music and books. If President Volodymyr Zelensky signs the legislation, it will be a significant step forward in Kiev’s attempt to purge the Russian culture.

The first bill will place heavy restrictions on any author who held Russian citizenship after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The law will ban the printing of books by Russian citizens, forbid importing the commercial import of any book printed in Russia, Belarus, or "occupied Ukrainian territory," and requires special permission to import any book in Russian."

"As president, Zelensky has advanced the culture war. After the Russian invasion, Zelensky removed members of parliament from parties that were deemed “pro-Russian.” He also nationalized Ukraine’s media, giving him further control over the narrative in Ukraine."

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/2/shooting-themselves-in-the-foot-western-sanctions-on-russia

"But the following month, the Russian rouble rebounded to 40 percent against the dollar compared to January, reaching a seven-year high and becoming the world’s best-performing currency in 2022."

"Analysts say Russia has so far made correct manoeuvres to withstand the effect of sanctions; the question is whether the West will be able to weather its own sanctions."

"The EU has been discussing reducing dependency on Russian energy, and after haggling for a month, it decided on Monday to ban 90 percent of Russian oil imports to the EU by the end of the year, part of the bloc’s sixth sanctions package. The EU finalised the decision on Thursday.

The ban applies to Russian oil exported to the EU by sea, exempting the 10 percent of imports by pipeline following Hungary’s opposition that it cannot easily get oil elsewhere. Slovakia and the Czech Republic also voiced the same concerns."

"China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner, whereas prior to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and sanctions ensued, its biggest trade partner was Germany.

Similarly prior to 2014, Russia was one of the world’s biggest importers of food; today, it is a net exporter.

In the last three months, India has bought four times more crude oil from Moscow than it used to in the same period, becoming Russia’s top crude oil buyer, Mishchenko said.

Moscow is now earning a significant amount in oil export revenue – $20bn per month, an increase of 50 percent since the start of 2022."

1.  Are we at war with Russia?  

2.  Imagine a bill in the US that stated we wouldn't allow any books or media from Iraqis, Afghanis, Mexicans etc.  People would be in the streets and probably burning down our Shitties.  Now imagine our president kicked parties out of the government and declared them enemies, and then nationalized our media and created a 24 hr propaganda machine, almost sounds like what some Repubs wet dream. Doesn't seem very democratic to me.

3.  The ruble is gaining value so much so that Russian government is taking steps to weaken it.  In addition India and China two of the biggest population and manufacturing centers in the world are creating closer and closer ties with Russia.  EU historically has gotten 40% of their gas from Russia where do they go now?  Winter is closer than we think, how are people going to heat their homes.  And wheat, well we all know how that is going, lndia has stopped exports of wheat to shore up its own supply which has raised prices globally.  The UN says there is a global grain shortage that could see millions suffer hunger and starvation.

Where do we go from here?  Not looking good for the Ukrainians or the world.  So far it seems that Russia is seeing benefits with a strengthened currency and stronger lucrative ties with China, India, South America and Africa.  Is this all part of the plan?  $54 Bn price tag so far, while that is a far cry from the $2 Trn in Afghanistan, it is an unimaginable sum to send with little oversight and it is just the beginning depending on how long this goes on without a diplomatic solution.

Please feel free to criticize me for crying about gas prices and the cost of groceries if it makes you feel better.  But also maybe take a second to think about diplomacy, pushing for an anti war solution to all this or even take some time to imagine a better world in general, it's possible, unless this situation gets too far out of hand.

1. Imagine a bill where we put restrictions on declared enemies of the US?  Um yeah, I think I can imagine that.  Did we burn our "shitties" when we interned the Japanese?  What about when we passed the Aliens Enemies Act?  FDR's EOs regarding detention of Germans, similar to suspensions of Habeas Corpus during the Civil War also occured.  I think I can pretty much not only imagine, but read a little history about it as well.  The Ukrainian parliament's act doesn't even make me flinch.  Why would it?  They are at a war for their lives right now.  You and I never faced a moment of risk during Afghanistan or Iraq.  You can't even start to compare the two.  Different times obviously.  There is more evidence that in the current state of the US and the distrust of our military and government that we would absolutely not standby and be placated by the justifications that subdued the population in the past.  Would you be ok with Republicans declaring Democrats enemies and purging them from the political system in the US, vice versa?  I sure wouldn't whether we were at war or not, although the case could be made that we are in a cold civil war.  Additionally I have lived long enough to know that everything my country tells me is not always the truth or in my best interest or for that matter the world's

2. Again, it's interesting how all of these problems somehow supersede the Ukrainians' right to be free,  independent and actually live. please show me where this claim is being made.  The Russian gov't is a criminal gov't. Agreed It's one that pillages wealth and commits war crimes. To be fair the same can be said of the USA  I don't give a fuck about much Germans need to pay for gas. How about the rest of the EU?  I give slightly larger of a fuck about the wheat prices.  It's an issue, but how does giving control to the Russians of 40% of the world's high quality grain make the world better?  I don't think anyone is calling for giving Russia control of all of Ukraine's arable land here, I'm pretty sure at least I personally am making a case for diplomatic alternatives that could deescalate, if you are actually looking for an answer for how giving russia control of 40% of the world's grain is going to make the world better, I don't have one.  It just gives them more control.  Which is why it would be stupid and was proposed by literally no one.

Either we are standing with Ukraine, or standing with Russia. I thought we could do two things at once with these brains of ours, Support the people of Ukraine and their struggles for freedom, recognize Russia's illegal actions and the war crimes they are committing all while still looking at a non military option,  and question all of the information being served to us in a time of war, as the famous saying goes Truth is the first casualty of war, unless of course you mean that support of Ukraine means unquestioning loyalty and constant military support? If we don't support Ukraine, that is standing with Russia. Can you support Ukraine and be critical of the surrounding geopolitical reality.  It sucks that our lives have become so dramatically worse since the Russians decided to start killing Ukrainians. I thought this was a move by Putin and the Russian Govt?  I don't want to start equating all Russians with the killing of Ukrainians, the average Russian has about as much to do with killing Ukrainians as any of us did with killing Libyans, Iraqis, Afghanis etc.  Tough break for us. Tough break for the world.

Bold above is obviously me.  The only fact I have now that I am relatively certain of is. Russia attacked Ukraine militarily and unprovoked  and in violation of international laws.   Everything else including what is the right course of action is up in the air, in my opinion escalation is not the answer and throughout history the escalation of war has caused nothing but more carnage and suffering for all sides, that's why I think about it and try to have discussions.  Putin  has a history of poisoning and imprisoning political enemies and is clearly not trustworthy.  Why then wasn't more done previously to curb him and the Russian Government?  Why was Nato not more interested in bringing Ukraine into the fold earlier.  If not Nato, and if everyone saw this conflict as inevitable why wasn't more done diplomatically prior.  If it all comes down to Putin, why wasn't more done to Putin earlier.  If the answer is because of nukes, why don't we sneak some Nukes into Ukraine and tell Putin it is time to negotiate.  I'm pretty sure you said in a previous discussion that any negotiating needs to be done with Ukraine in a position of strength, what is stronger than some Nukes?  I've heard mutually assured destruction is a determinant and that that is why putin isn't using nukes yet.  Are backchannel meetings taking place with the olgarchs and other high ranking officials in order to depose putin or at least get him to change course?  Is the only course of action war and escalation?  To what point, the annihilation of either Russia or Ukraine? Hopefully there isn't any fallout if war is the only path forward.  I'm worried that we (USA Govt) aren't actually all in on freedom and independence of the Ukrainians at any means including diplomacy which could take many forms, not just capitulation to russia.  I'm also worried that the US and the West is taking advantage of Ukraine to try to destabilize Russia and isn't worried about the Human cost to Ukranians or Russians or for that matter citizens of other countries all over the world not directly involved in the conflict.  Maybe I am worried too much.

mrussel1 said:

I can't reply to this much information.  I'm at work and it's just too much.  Happy to argue in shorter spurts.  

I will say if the US and Europe stopped providing weapons, the Ukraine would lose the whole country, not just the eastern part.  And then you would have Russia controlling 40% of the world's high quality grain.  Suddenly a belligerent enemy of the US controls massive amounts of oil and food.  That is not only bad for Ukrainians, it's bad for the world.  You're arguing that the US should push for some sort of peace.  I'm pretty much 100% sure that the US diplomats and Ukraine have discussed peace terms multiple times. This war is new, it's not long and extended.  But there's no way those discussions should be public. 

Thanks for taking the time.  I was fortunate to have a slow morning followed by a lunch break so I could be much more long winded.  I understand that you have deep blood ties to Ukraine, if I am not mistaken from our previous discussions, so I really like to read your thoughts on the matter and help them to inform my own.

Mike wear an Ukraine t-shirt the other night on Berlin..

I think the argument is that if Ukraine did not put up a fight (backed by Western powers) then the likelihood of another invasion increases.  You can't say that the risk was overblown after the Ukraine army puts up a gallant fight.  The argument now is that Russia is FAR less likely to try another invasion because of the fight of Ukraine and the western powers.  

Regarding sources, well pick your poison.  Do you think reading Sputnik and being told that Russia has only lost 1300 soldiers, yet they are going nowhere and multiple generals have been killed, would be more accurate?

mrussel1 said:

I think the argument is that if Ukraine did not put up a fight (backed by Western powers) then the likelihood of another invasion increases.  You can't say that the risk was overblown after the Ukraine army puts up a gallant fight.  The argument now is that Russia is FAR less likely to try another invasion because of the fight of Ukraine and the western powers.  

Regarding sources, well pick your poison.  Do you think reading Sputnik and being told that Russia has only lost 1300 soldiers, yet they are going nowhere and multiple generals have been killed, would be more accurate?

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I think the argument is that if Ukraine did not put up a fight (backed by Western powers) then the likelihood of another invasion increases.  You can't say that the risk was overblown after the Ukraine army puts up a gallant fight.  The argument now is that Russia is FAR less likely to try another invasion because of the fight of Ukraine and the western powers.  

Regarding sources, well pick your poison.  Do you think reading Sputnik and being told that Russia has only lost 1300 soldiers, yet they are going nowhere and multiple generals have been killed, would be more accurate?

And then Russia strikes Kiev during a G7 meeting. Kills civilians shopping at a mall. Could there be a more direct message to Americans? Did any get it? (This topic almost dropped to bottom of pg 1 during these renewed air strikes. I haven’t posted here in awhile either)

What can possibly be done now to stop Putin? If we send our top air defense tech to “close the skies” to Russian air strikes, we run the risk of Putin getting his hands on our top tech. We’ve upended the economy to try to stop this atrocity. How much further can this go?

I too am disillusioned that people have no focus on what is probably the number one most threatening action happening to life on earth today.  I think about it a lot but keep my opinions to myself most of the time unless I feel like having a discussion here.  I think there is a lot of intelligence that says the Russian army can't last much longer.  However I remember these same preedictions in March stating that the Russians would be out of resources and lacking morale by mid may...well here we are at the doorstep of July.  Obviously Western Intelligence aren't the only ones that saw this all wrong if reports that Putin believed this would be a short action that overwhelmed Ukraine are to be believed.

I don't know what can be done to stop aggressions and I have no real idea aside from diplomacy and disarmament.  Which it seems is very far from happening.  A no fly zone likely turns this into WWIII, as does I'm sure providing Ukraine with too much advanced weaponry.  It is kind of a no one wins situation.  Striking the balance of supplying Ukraine with just enough aid to keep slogging, but not enough for Russia to expand it's use of advanced weapons, and or expand the scope of it's war.  One thing is for sure, Raytheon, Lockheed et al are making profits again.

I've said it in previous posts, but it appears that the upending of the economy is only strengthening russia, with a more powerful BRICS and new trading partners as well as a rise in the ruble to a degree where the russian central bank is having to create inflation in order to keep the currency from becoming too strong too fast.  All the while Nato nations and the west seem to be feeling the brunt of the sanctions.

How much farther can this go?  That is the question for me.  How much is too much. People say nukes won't happen because of mutually assured destruction, but there have been a lot of firsts in the last 3 years.  If not nukes, russia has much more advanced missiles etc than they have been using. 

 It is a mess and as it galvanized NATO behind the US it also seems to be galvanizing the Russian China connections as well.  So far we have sent $54 billion.  Other nations have sent billions more.  Russia's yearly military budget is projected to be at about 65 billion.  If Ukraine doesn't have enough resources at this point to defeat a 65 billion dollar a year military how much is needed.  How many lives is enough for Ukrainians, how many lives is enough for Russia.  At what point do we (US) step in?

Sure having these thoughts can lead people to believe that I am following some Bushism along the lines of "if you aren't with us you are with the terrorists" as if with all the talk of nuance in the world today there isn't room for nuance when it comes to Russia's war.

I'd like to live in a world where we in the west and NATO countries are some kind of infallible bloc of white knights spreading prosperity and peace throughout the world and that somehow the evil russians will just be vanquished by the power of justice and good.  Maybe if we prosecuted any of the war crimes that we committed  or the war criminals that authorized them during our conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan we would have a leg to stand on when it comes to that view, but with a million dead Iraqis and no serious criminal tribunals for western leaders that kind of falls flat for me.  At least we are looking at putting the individual that did the most for the world, in exposing those crimes, away behind bars for life

"mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind" MLK said that in regards to Viet Nam with the very real idea that prolonging the Viet Nam conflict would lead to a direct confrontation with China that could lead to nuclear annihilation.  Well switch Ukraine and Russia with Viet Nam and China and we aren't so far from that today.  There has to be another way.  There has to be a way to get Ukraine soveirgnty even if it is along the Finlandization model, and then through diplomatic means as well start the impossible task of bringing Russia into the western world.  It is hard to dream of peace in a country with so many extremists that seem hell bent on yanking my own country back 100 years, but here we are.

Halifax2TheMax said:

It’s going to be a long, cold, hard winter. I wouldn’t put too much on the Russian-China connection. Putin vastly underestimated the world’s response. Only Ukraine can determine their destiny.

From WaPo.

Global exports to Russia fell sharply after the Ukraine invasion, not only from Western countries that enacted sanctions but also from non-sanctioning countries including China, a new analysis shows.

The study suggests Moscow is struggling to find suppliers for a range of goods.

Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia's war in Ukraine.

Over roughly two months after the invasion began Feb. 24, exports to Russia from sanctioning countries fell by about 60 percent while exports from non-sanctioning countries fell by about 40 percent, according to the study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which analyzed data from 54 countries.

The available data ends on April 30, so the analysis doesn’t give a picture up to the current day, Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow and author of the study, said in an interview. But a separate analysis of China-only data through the end of May shows that China’s exports to Russia remained well below prewar levels, suggesting that Beijing is wary of helping Moscow, Chorzempa said.

"Yet, despite being the target of this economic firepower from 38 sanctioning countries, Russia's economy has not collapsed, its currency has recovered (though the market for rubles is hardly normal), and the volume of imports remains high, despite the decline. The question is whether Russia will get what it needs to continue the war and keep up in cutting-edge industries. Russia has experience working around sanctions, disguising its purchases, and going through shady intermediaries. These workarounds will face major hurdles to succeed at an economywide scale. But chips are hard to control: As anyone who has seen the movie The Departed knows, a million dollars of military chips can easily be smuggled in a small suitcase.

The limited May export data suggest a slight rebound in exports to Russia from countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and China. It may be a result of the ruble's recovery and stability, which improved Russia's terms of trade. It may also be that risk-averse companies halted more business with Russia than sanctions required. Now that they understand which types of goods, payment, and shipping methods do not violate the rules, some may be resuming some of their exports. Increased trade may thus not necessarily mean that sanctions are being undermined."

This bit from the study as well as the data ending in april, makes the outlook not as rosy as the WaPo piece. Additionally it appears that though China is not exporting to Russia it is certainly importing in the Billions, I'm sure that Russia is not supplying exports out of the goodness of it's heart.

static111 said:

mickeyrat said:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-politics-finland-05bee518928c878dc3c170ff3044fa93

 

 Sweden Finland Jens Stoltenberg Cold War

Live updates | Putin warns on NATO troops in Sweden, Finland

The Associated Press

1 minute ago

MADRID (AP) — The latest on the NATO summit in Madrid:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning Finland and Sweden that if they welcome NATO troops and military infrastructure onto their territory, Russia will respond in kind.

He said Wednesday that Russia will have to “create the same threats for the territory from which threats against us are created.”

The two formerly nonaligned Baltic countries were formally invited Wednesday to join the Western military alliance.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the war in Ukraine has brought “the biggest overhaul of our collective defense since the end of the Cold War.”

continues....

Maybe we should solve Ukraine before expanding Nato and the war machine.  At this point it looks like we are baiting Russia to cross a line so we can go into an open war.

Yes, that vicious NATO war machine empire will threaten to stomp out the glorious rebellion in eastern Ukraine, supported by the "Special Military Operation".  

Now is exactly the time for Sweden, Norway and others to finally join NATO.  

  https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-government-and-politics-5ef5dae6aa76addea66cc24c460d2877