Stock market

Unions and minimum wage are defined as class warfare? Just trying to confirm this

Rate hikes are basically the Fed's only weapon against inflation. Should see stocks take a hit as well, and people with any credit card debt will see it come their way, too.

Of note: we're not in a recession, at least not yet.

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!

Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!

Yup and he is tweeting about it all day today again.  He is nothing but a politician, always looking who else to blame for their issues.  Joe was never the solution to our real problems, he is part of it.  Just was a solution to the bat shit crazy GOP of today.

OK more than anything I'm here for the class warfare and I'm still shocked to hear he's the one carrying it out. Good ol' middle of the road Joe is now a leading revolutionary of class warfare. Again, news to me.

It's become the Dems platform.  Surprised you didn't know that already.

I mean you said so so it must be true. I know they've been trying to increase minimum wage, very much class warfare I guess. I saw ol Joe tweeted about unions today and the minimum wage. Is that the class warfare you're referring?

In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.

Well I mean it fits the definition...but it's cuter to just say stuff like "I mean if you said so so it must be true".

And yes the rate hike is a huge deal.  As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation.  They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year.  Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.

Bring on the recession. It's time.  

Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!

A recession isn;t necessarily bad...but how low do you think it will go and how long will it last?

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!

Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!

Yup and he is tweeting about it all day today again.  He is nothing but a politician, always looking who else to blame for their issues.  Joe was never the solution to our real problems, he is part of it.  Just was a solution to the bat shit crazy GOP of today.

OK more than anything I'm here for the class warfare and I'm still shocked to hear he's the one carrying it out. Good ol' middle of the road Joe is now a leading revolutionary of class warfare. Again, news to me.

It's become the Dems platform.  Surprised you didn't know that already.

I mean you said so so it must be true. I know they've been trying to increase minimum wage, very much class warfare I guess. I saw ol Joe tweeted about unions today and the minimum wage. Is that the class warfare you're referring?

In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.

Well I mean it fits the definition...but it's cuter to just say stuff like "I mean if you said so so it must be true".

And yes the rate hike is a huge deal.  As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation.  They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year.  Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.

Bring on the recession. It's time.  

Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!

Just to challenge you on this - why would you think it's time? If anything this is like worst case scenario right now. We needed the Fed to start hiking rates a loooonnnng time ago and now they're going to be in uncharted territory because of it. At least they're finally doing it. But unless they start hiking very high very soon, and very quickly, then there's no runway left to drop the rate when you're actually in a recession.

IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.

Why do you not think there will be a recession?

cincybearcat said:

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!

Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!

Yup and he is tweeting about it all day today again.  He is nothing but a politician, always looking who else to blame for their issues.  Joe was never the solution to our real problems, he is part of it.  Just was a solution to the bat shit crazy GOP of today.

OK more than anything I'm here for the class warfare and I'm still shocked to hear he's the one carrying it out. Good ol' middle of the road Joe is now a leading revolutionary of class warfare. Again, news to me.

It's become the Dems platform.  Surprised you didn't know that already.

I mean you said so so it must be true. I know they've been trying to increase minimum wage, very much class warfare I guess. I saw ol Joe tweeted about unions today and the minimum wage. Is that the class warfare you're referring?

In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.

Well I mean it fits the definition...but it's cuter to just say stuff like "I mean if you said so so it must be true".

And yes the rate hike is a huge deal.  As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation.  They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year.  Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.

Bring on the recession. It's time.  

Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!

A recession isn;t necessarily bad...but how low do you think it will go and how long will it last?

Well I'm not sure I can predict those,  but I think unemployment creeping to 5.5% would not be a bad thing.  It is extraordinarily difficult to hire right now,  I can tell you that.  We hire people and they never show.  I've never seen anything like this in 25 years. 

The market is in bear territory now,  so we're there.  I think the Fed can manage the landing softly.  Between quantitative easing, interest rates and other monetary tools,  I think they can manage a recession better than inflation.  

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!

Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!

Yup and he is tweeting about it all day today again.  He is nothing but a politician, always looking who else to blame for their issues.  Joe was never the solution to our real problems, he is part of it.  Just was a solution to the bat shit crazy GOP of today.

OK more than anything I'm here for the class warfare and I'm still shocked to hear he's the one carrying it out. Good ol' middle of the road Joe is now a leading revolutionary of class warfare. Again, news to me.

It's become the Dems platform.  Surprised you didn't know that already.

I mean you said so so it must be true. I know they've been trying to increase minimum wage, very much class warfare I guess. I saw ol Joe tweeted about unions today and the minimum wage. Is that the class warfare you're referring?

In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.

Well I mean it fits the definition...but it's cuter to just say stuff like "I mean if you said so so it must be true".

And yes the rate hike is a huge deal.  As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation.  They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year.  Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.

Bring on the recession. It's time.  

Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!

Just to challenge you on this - why would you think it's time? If anything this is like worst case scenario right now. We needed the Fed to start hiking rates a loooonnnng time ago and now they're going to be in uncharted territory because of it. At least they're finally doing it. But unless they start hiking very high very soon, and very quickly, then there's no runway left to drop the rate when you're actually in a recession.

IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.

Why do you not think there will be a recession?

I edited my response above, but I just don't see it. Though I could see the very tool to fight inflation to end up causing a recession. If Covid blows up again massively then I think there will be a recession, or if Russia plans to go to war with the world and China goes after Taiwan, that kind of stuff. But outside of that, the labor market is too hot, all the fundamentals that were pointing in the wrong direction last time (housing) are strong this time and not in that territory. I just don't see it. The only thing that could do is if things like credit card debt and student loans all of a sudden are so far out of swing that they bankrupt people. And at least I don't think that's currently the issue.

And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.

I can tell you affirmatively that banks are increasing reserves and preparing for higher delinquencies and faster roll rates.  Higher interest rates are coming thru the LIBOR and prime + terms.  

I think we're a lock for a technical recession.  How painful it will be is TBD. And you're right,  the tool of 3/4 pt is such a blunt instrument,  I think it will cause a recession. 

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

cincybearcat said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!

Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!

Yup and he is tweeting about it all day today again.  He is nothing but a politician, always looking who else to blame for their issues.  Joe was never the solution to our real problems, he is part of it.  Just was a solution to the bat shit crazy GOP of today.

OK more than anything I'm here for the class warfare and I'm still shocked to hear he's the one carrying it out. Good ol' middle of the road Joe is now a leading revolutionary of class warfare. Again, news to me.

It's become the Dems platform.  Surprised you didn't know that already.

I mean you said so so it must be true. I know they've been trying to increase minimum wage, very much class warfare I guess. I saw ol Joe tweeted about unions today and the minimum wage. Is that the class warfare you're referring?

In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.

Well I mean it fits the definition...but it's cuter to just say stuff like "I mean if you said so so it must be true".

And yes the rate hike is a huge deal.  As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation.  They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year.  Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.

Bring on the recession. It's time.  

Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!

Just to challenge you on this - why would you think it's time? If anything this is like worst case scenario right now. We needed the Fed to start hiking rates a loooonnnng time ago and now they're going to be in uncharted territory because of it. At least they're finally doing it. But unless they start hiking very high very soon, and very quickly, then there's no runway left to drop the rate when you're actually in a recession.

IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.

Why do you not think there will be a recession?

I edited my response above, but I just don't see it. Though I could see the very tool to fight inflation to end up causing a recession. If Covid blows up again massively then I think there will be a recession, or if Russia plans to go to war with the world and China goes after Taiwan, that kind of stuff. But outside of that, the labor market is too hot, all the fundamentals that were pointing in the wrong direction last time (housing) are strong this time and not in that territory. I just don't see it. The only thing that could do is if things like credit card debt and student loans all of a sudden are so far out of swing that they bankrupt people. And at least I don't think that's currently the issue.

And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.

So I hear you on the job market but with things getting more expensive people have to tighten their belts and less gets spent, less things get bought, less things get built, companies make less than expected and start laying off.  The spiral begins...

I go to this guy a lot for overall feedback on what's going on, and this is what I was feeling and much better articulates my thoughts (he's threaded within the tweet):



"It is premature for the Fed to become resigned to a recession to get inflation back in the box."

That thing called Covid that went especially wild in 2021.

They also released this breakdown, which I mostly agree with:

Their stuff is subscription-based so I'm not paying for it atm. But you could also dig up BLS data if you wish.

Are you one of those "printing money is stupid" people that thinks it causes, or is one of the greatest causes, of inflation? Because this has been disproven time and time again, look into papers re: velocity of money.

No quarter over quarter rate hike has been over 2%, at least not in a long long time. That is a shock to the system. You go from calming demand with the effect of lowering the rate of inflation increases, to antagonizing - and basically wanting to cause - a recession. 

I contend they should have raised rates much quicker coming out of the prior recession (like between 2012 and 2017). And that Trump shgould have never directed the Fed to drop the rate in 2018.

And we're talking about the US-strictly here. Most people in this country do have 30, or 15, year mortgages. Not sure how your country works, but I first assumed that you did live here and when you said you mortgage is up for renewal you were talking about an ARM mortgage. Which, for those people especially, it will be very very bad. Those mortgages started to bubble up again but are no where near where they were ala 2007. But for those people it will be bad. People here really took advantage of extremely low mortgage rates within the past couple years and re-fi'ed their mortgages.

My main concern is personal debt, followed by housing. It looks like people overall have been flush with savings during this expansion (which is weird in itself to say we've been in during a global pandemic), but those are now starting to be tapped into. And with the Fed going with such a large increase so quickly that is going to affect the banks and credit card companies, which will then in turn affect the people with that debt. That and student loans, or any debt with a variable rate, is my greatest concern.

Then housing supply is already historically scarce and only getting worse. And now, yes, housing prices SHOULD come down with higher rates, but with supply so low I'm not sure if that's actually going to happen. Plus getting that mortgage will only cost more now. Those are my longer-term concerns.

Jearlpam0925 said:

Their stuff is subscription-based so I'm not paying for it atm. But you could also dig up BLS data if you wish.

Are you one of those "printing money is stupid" people that thinks it causes, or is one of the greatest causes, of inflation? Because this has been disproven time and time again, look into papers re: velocity of money.

No quarter over quarter rate hike has been over 2%, at least not in a long long time. That is a shock to the system. You go from calming demand with the effect of lowering the rate of inflation increases, to antagonizing - and basically wanting to cause - a recession. 

I contend they should have raised rates much quicker coming out of the prior recession (like between 2012 and 2017). And that Trump shgould have never directed the Fed to drop the rate in 2018.

And we're talking about the US-strictly here. Most people in this country do have 30, or 15, year mortgages. Not sure how your country works, but I first assumed that you did live here and when you said you mortgage is up for renewal you were talking about an ARM mortgage. Which, for those people especially, it will be very very bad. Those mortgages started to bubble up again but are no where near where they were ala 2007. But for those people it will be bad. People here really took advantage of extremely low mortgage rates within the past couple years and re-fi'ed their mortgages.

My main concern is personal debt, followed by housing. It looks like people overall have been flush with savings during this expansion (which is weird in itself to say we've been in during a global pandemic), but those are now starting to be tapped into. And with the Fed going with such a large increase so quickly that is going to affect the banks and credit card companies, which will then in turn affect the people with that debt. That and student loans, or any debt with a variable rate, is my greatest concern.

Then housing supply is already historically scarce and only getting worse. And now, yes, housing prices SHOULD come down with higher rates, but with supply so low I'm not sure if that's actually going to happen. Plus getting that mortgage will only cost more now. Those are my longer-term concerns.