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Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.hippiemom = goodness0 -
Unions and minimum wage are defined as class warfare? Just trying to confirm this
Rate hikes are basically the Fed's only weapon against inflation. Should see stocks take a hit as well, and people with any credit card debt will see it come their way, too.
Of note: we're not in a recession, at least not yet.0 -
cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!0 -
mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!hippiemom = goodness0 -
mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
Note: ironic, also, because we may go into a recession because of the rate hikes.
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.hippiemom = goodness0 -
I love the dropping of accusations or is it claims or maybe "statements," and when asked for details or facts to back said accusations, claims, or statements, its crickets. But the buzz words sure are plentiful. Or maybe thoughts haven't been thought through?
And damn do I not want to "assume" what anyone "means" around these here parts.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
cincybearcat said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
The market is in bear territory now, so we're there. I think the Fed can manage the landing softly. Between quantitative easing, interest rates and other monetary tools, I think they can manage a recession better than inflation.0 -
cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.
And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.
And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.
I think we're a lock for a technical recession. How painful it will be is TBD. And you're right, the tool of 3/4 pt is such a blunt instrument, I think it will cause a recession.0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:nicknyr15 said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
and it couldn’t be more indirect. Unless you @ me or dm then there’s a chance I’ll never see it.Post edited by nicknyr15 on0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.
And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.0 -
tempo_n_groove said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:mrussel1 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:cincybearcat said:Jearlpam0925 said:T what? Biden wants a class war? That's news to me!
Also, if our boy nicky got out of his social media hole they'd see that - surprisingly, if you can believe this - inflation isn't just happening in the United States. But politics!
In more related news, Fed hike coming of 75 bp. That's a big deal.
And yes the rate hike is a huge deal. As I have been reading, many feel the fed has been acting too slow to avoid a recession from their now actions to curb inflation. They mentioned expecting another point over the course of the year. Seems like many think this will certainly curb inflation and just wondering how low and how long the recession it triggers goes/lasts.
Hey @EdsonNascimento remind me again what I think a recession is please!
IMO I don't think there will be a recession though, but that's just me.
And I think once China gets humming again with shipping, since edit: sorry Shaghai opened back up, that's a plus.0 -
I go to this guy a lot for overall feedback on what's going on, and this is what I was feeling and much better articulates my thoughts (he's threaded within the tweet):
"It is premature for the Fed to become resigned to a recession to get inflation back in the box."Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:I go to this guy a lot for overall feedback on what's going on, and this is what I was feeling and much better articulates my thoughts (he's threaded within the tweet):
"It is premature for the Fed to become resigned to a recession to get inflation back in the box."mostly caused by Russia etc..umm what about the 2021 4q inflation?_____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
That thing called Covid that went especially wild in 2021.
They also released this breakdown, which I mostly agree with:
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lol that chart looks pretty sketchy. How did they arrive at those numbers. How do they know increased money supply didn't indirectly impact them. It looks more like a wishlist.. .lol.In regards to the 75bps increase. Isn't anything below a 2% overnight rate considered expansionary? Ergo if you don't want to be pour gas on a hot fire, you need to at least get it over 2% so it's neutral, and no longer expansionary?I think it's also going to be hard. I'm not going to feel the brunt of those interest rate increases for about 3.5 years when my mortgage comes up for renewal. Lots of other people are in similar boats. The US (I wish we had this here) even has 30 year mortgages where the rate is locked in the whole time, so all the people on those would be uneffected by rates.IE I think it takes a while to see the impact of increased rates because only a percentage of the population is in variable rate mortgages... it takes years to see the impact on fixed mortgages. Ergo having people spend more money on debt, and less on goods, to quiet down economy probably isn't going to be seen much at the short intervals between fed/boc meetings?0
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Their stuff is subscription-based so I'm not paying for it atm. But you could also dig up BLS data if you wish.
Are you one of those "printing money is stupid" people that thinks it causes, or is one of the greatest causes, of inflation? Because this has been disproven time and time again, look into papers re: velocity of money.
No quarter over quarter rate hike has been over 2%, at least not in a long long time. That is a shock to the system. You go from calming demand with the effect of lowering the rate of inflation increases, to antagonizing - and basically wanting to cause - a recession.
I contend they should have raised rates much quicker coming out of the prior recession (like between 2012 and 2017). And that Trump shgould have never directed the Fed to drop the rate in 2018.
And we're talking about the US-strictly here. Most people in this country do have 30, or 15, year mortgages. Not sure how your country works, but I first assumed that you did live here and when you said you mortgage is up for renewal you were talking about an ARM mortgage. Which, for those people especially, it will be very very bad. Those mortgages started to bubble up again but are no where near where they were ala 2007. But for those people it will be bad. People here really took advantage of extremely low mortgage rates within the past couple years and re-fi'ed their mortgages.
My main concern is personal debt, followed by housing. It looks like people overall have been flush with savings during this expansion (which is weird in itself to say we've been in during a global pandemic), but those are now starting to be tapped into. And with the Fed going with such a large increase so quickly that is going to affect the banks and credit card companies, which will then in turn affect the people with that debt. That and student loans, or any debt with a variable rate, is my greatest concern.
Then housing supply is already historically scarce and only getting worse. And now, yes, housing prices SHOULD come down with higher rates, but with supply so low I'm not sure if that's actually going to happen. Plus getting that mortgage will only cost more now. Those are my longer-term concerns.Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on0 -
Jearlpam0925 said:I go to this guy a lot for overall feedback on what's going on, and this is what I was feeling and much better articulates my thoughts (he's threaded within the tweet):
"It is premature for the Fed to become resigned to a recession to get inflation back in the box."
I am resigned to a recession, but it doesn't need to be steep. He certainly could be right that a half point was enough.
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Jearlpam0925 said:Their stuff is subscription-based so I'm not paying for it atm. But you could also dig up BLS data if you wish.
Are you one of those "printing money is stupid" people that thinks it causes, or is one of the greatest causes, of inflation? Because this has been disproven time and time again, look into papers re: velocity of money.
No quarter over quarter rate hike has been over 2%, at least not in a long long time. That is a shock to the system. You go from calming demand with the effect of lowering the rate of inflation increases, to antagonizing - and basically wanting to cause - a recession.
I contend they should have raised rates much quicker coming out of the prior recession (like between 2012 and 2017). And that Trump shgould have never directed the Fed to drop the rate in 2018.
And we're talking about the US-strictly here. Most people in this country do have 30, or 15, year mortgages. Not sure how your country works, but I first assumed that you did live here and when you said you mortgage is up for renewal you were talking about an ARM mortgage. Which, for those people especially, it will be very very bad. Those mortgages started to bubble up again but are no where near where they were ala 2007. But for those people it will be bad. People here really took advantage of extremely low mortgage rates within the past couple years and re-fi'ed their mortgages.
My main concern is personal debt, followed by housing. It looks like people overall have been flush with savings during this expansion (which is weird in itself to say we've been in during a global pandemic), but those are now starting to be tapped into. And with the Fed going with such a large increase so quickly that is going to affect the banks and credit card companies, which will then in turn affect the people with that debt. That and student loans, or any debt with a variable rate, is my greatest concern.
Then housing supply is already historically scarce and only getting worse. And now, yes, housing prices SHOULD come down with higher rates, but with supply so low I'm not sure if that's actually going to happen. Plus getting that mortgage will only cost more now. Those are my longer-term concerns.Yah here in Canada we don't really get mortgages the length of a mortgage. The common practice is to renew 5 years a time, so whatever you chose, variable or fixed, really only makes a difference until the next time we renew.The advantage (I suppose because of less risk to the banks when it resets every 5 years) is I believe our rates are a bit lower than the US, but the drawback is your exposed to interest rate increases when you renew. So up here where everyone has a 5 year mortgage, anyone who has a fixed rate mortgage will feel the pain as they renew over the next 4 to 5 years.It's definitely a shame you can't get 30 years mortgages here. It would completely remove the risk of people defaulting on their homes if there was no risk of the payments ever going up from where you started.0
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