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Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.0 -
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.0 -
I mean call it what you will, but, yes, oil and the war in Ukraine are a large reason for it, as I've posted in here numerous times (and Covid). Also sounds like a great reason to keep pivoting away from a dependency on fossil fuels.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.0 -
Also a good reason to jack up prices for loss of revenue during lockdown...Jearlpam0925 said:
I mean call it what you will, but, yes, oil and the war in Ukraine are a large reason for it, as I've posted in here numerous times (and Covid). Also sounds like a great reason to keep pivoting away from a dependency on fossil fuels.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.0 -
I mean yeah I guess. Again, sounds like a great reason to not send money to oil companies, and instead become self-reliant with technology that can get us on our way there.tempo_n_groove said:
Also a good reason to jack up prices for loss of revenue during lockdown...Jearlpam0925 said:
I mean call it what you will, but, yes, oil and the war in Ukraine are a large reason for it, as I've posted in here numerous times (and Covid). Also sounds like a great reason to keep pivoting away from a dependency on fossil fuels.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.
IMO two things the Fed gov't should have started yesterday (well, really just one - Green New Deal): 1) invest & churn out housing construction/production 2) invest in every damn piece of alternative energy, infrastructure, and transportation. They're the greatest long-term fixes/investment for a slew of reasons. These two things, to me, would be the New New Deal, and it would be worth every penny.
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Starbucks is selling coffee at what has to be at least $30 a gallon.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.
that’s mostly water. Just saying
they have been doing it for decadesPost edited by Cropduster-80 on0 -
They were doing Fair Trade coffee so I gave them the benefit of the doubt for that and people love spending money on that coffee thinking they're bougie, lol!Cropduster-80 said:
Starbucks is selling coffee at what has to be at least $30 a gallon.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.
that’s mostly water. Just saying
they have been doing it for decades0 -
I agree with energy infrastructure but a lot of what’s needed is the boring high voltage linesJearlpam0925 said:
I mean yeah I guess. Again, sounds like a great reason to not send money to oil companies, and instead become self-reliant with technology that can get us on our way there.tempo_n_groove said:
Also a good reason to jack up prices for loss of revenue during lockdown...Jearlpam0925 said:
I mean call it what you will, but, yes, oil and the war in Ukraine are a large reason for it, as I've posted in here numerous times (and Covid). Also sounds like a great reason to keep pivoting away from a dependency on fossil fuels.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.
IMO two things the Fed gov't should have started yesterday (well, really just one - Green New Deal): 1) invest & churn out housing construction/production 2) invest in every damn piece of alternative energy, infrastructure, and transportation. They're the greatest long-term fixes/investment for a slew of reasons. These two things, to me, would be the New New Deal, and it would be worth every penny.
you can build all the wind and solar farms you want in west Texas for example. Getting that energy to the cities that need it isn’t happening as you don’t have the thousands of miles of lines or the capacity to move that energy and it’s going to be a huge problem as people demand way more from the grid now. It’s a big problem especially with plug in cars (which I support). It’s just added strain on the grid.
plus I read somewhere that the biggest 9 bitcoin/crypto miners use (or will use in the near future) 20 percent of all electricity in Texas.No way the infrastructure can support that growth no matter how that energy is being generatedPost edited by Cropduster-80 on0 -
Again, I think this is another forest from the trees conversation. IMO Bitcoin is trash for a number of reasons, and this is just another example. We shouldn't be trying to support bitcoin mining. Like my mind goes, when you say that, is "oh yeah, bitcoin sucks. sounds like just another reason not to allow that trash." Not "bitcoin mining is heavily reliant on energy usage so we should find whatever resource we have to support that."Cropduster-80 said:
I agree with energy infrastructure but a lot of what’s needed is the boring high voltage linesJearlpam0925 said:
I mean yeah I guess. Again, sounds like a great reason to not send money to oil companies, and instead become self-reliant with technology that can get us on our way there.tempo_n_groove said:
Also a good reason to jack up prices for loss of revenue during lockdown...Jearlpam0925 said:
I mean call it what you will, but, yes, oil and the war in Ukraine are a large reason for it, as I've posted in here numerous times (and Covid). Also sounds like a great reason to keep pivoting away from a dependency on fossil fuels.tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.
IMO two things the Fed gov't should have started yesterday (well, really just one - Green New Deal): 1) invest & churn out housing construction/production 2) invest in every damn piece of alternative energy, infrastructure, and transportation. They're the greatest long-term fixes/investment for a slew of reasons. These two things, to me, would be the New New Deal, and it would be worth every penny.
you can build all the wind and solar farms you want in west Texas for example. Getting that energy to the cities that need it isn’t happening as you don’t have the thousands of miles of lines or the capacity to move that energy and it’s going to be a huge problem as people demand way more from the grid now. It’s a big problem especially with plug in cars (which I support). It’s just added strain on the grid.
plus I read somewhere that the biggest 9 bitcoin miner use (or will use in the near future) 20 percent of all electricity in Texas.No way the infrastructure can support that growth
And I'm not saying wind and solar is the biggest answer. What I'm saying is there are answers. Texas has as many problems as they have because they're not on the socialized (uh oh! scary word!) grid where other states/grids are capable of supplementing one another when usage increases. It's because they're solely reliant upon themselves. And that would take regulation (another scary word!) to get on that grid, but Texas is gonna Texas. Talk about a matter of price and profit gouging...
Nuclear is the answer in a lot of ways when it comes to households, but it's one of those mindfucks for environmentally progressive people. It's actually cleaner, more efficient, and safer than basically every other option as a whole. Talk about a hot take, haha..
As for house heating there are plenty of ways outside of oil and gas, etc etc.
And, sorry, I should clarify when I'm talking about infrastructure - I'm mainly talking about transportation and its relation to it: e.g. building more rail, implementing more non-car modal lanes (bike/scooter/pedestrian/bus/train/trolley/you name it) dependent upon the distance needed; implementing more congestion pricing in dense areas, incentivize the use of public transportation especially in denser areas.Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on0 -
When I lived in London I could get anywhere in what seemed like 15 minutes. In Houston it takes me 45 to get to Target 5 miles away.
why Americans don’t support public transport infrastructure is beyond me. They sit in traffic and complain constantly though but don’t seem to want to do a thing about it
really politicians or whoever should just drop the environmental argument. Make it a convenience argument.Post edited by Cropduster-80 on0 -
tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf0 -
I think it's hard as a whole to compare Houston, or the country, to something like Europe. But, I get what you're saying, absolutely. I'd take it a step further and say not only it's a matter convenience but speaking to the costs and implementing cost prohibitive measures. Convenience is what will win people over, but the only way to do that is start with incentivizing that convenience.Cropduster-80 said:When I lived in London I could get anywhere in what seemed like 15 minutes. In Houston it takes me 45 to get to Target 5 miles away.
why Americans don’t support public transport infrastructure is beyond me. They sit in traffic and complain constantly though but don’t seem to want to do a thing about it
really politicians or whoever should just drop the environmental argument. Make it a convenience argument.0 -
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.0 -
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.0 -
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.0 -
tempo_n_groove said:
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.I’ll tell you my wife spent 9 years on a massive oil field expansion project. It took that long to get 30-40 percent more production. She started on it two oil price crashes ago. It’s really not like you can snap your fingers and produce considerable excess amounts of oil.It was in progress when oil was 115 a barrel (not this time, but the time before) and when oil was 20 a barrel and when it went negative. That was super weird when that happened although it was more of a short term technicality
the economics are based on long term average prices/projections, not the price right now. Prices will crash again. It happens all the time. Worst thing you can do is produce based on todays pricesPost edited by Cropduster-80 on0 -
I'm not sure why you think OPEC is interested in helping to fill that void. They are trying to optimize their profit. That means allowing prices to float higher for a period of time, but not long enough to create a recession and therefore drive down demand.tempo_n_groove said:
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.
And when energy prices rise, everything goes up with it.0 -
I get that u can’t just get more oil out of a well. What u can do is reopen the wells that they have on the books already that they capped baa as ck when it wasn’t as profitable.Cropduster-80 said:tempo_n_groove said:
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.I’ll tell you my wife spent 9 years on a massive oil field expansion project. It took that long to get 30-40 percent more production. She started on it two oil price crashes ago. It’s really not like you can snap your fingers and produce considerable excess amounts of oil.It was in progress when oil was 115 a barrel (not this time, but the time before) and when oil was 20 a barrel and when it went negative. That was super weird when that happened although it was more of a short term technicality
the economics are based on long term average prices/projections, not the price right now. Prices will crash again. It happens all the time. Worst thing you can do is produce based on todays pricesBut again, why would u want to do that right? Money’s good right now.0 -
They aren’t. Just like the oil companies aren’t interested in uncapping the wells they plugged up during the cheap oil days.mrussel1 said:
I'm not sure why you think OPEC is interested in helping to fill that void. They are trying to optimize their profit. That means allowing prices to float higher for a period of time, but not long enough to create a recession and therefore drive down demand.tempo_n_groove said:
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.
And when energy prices rise, everything goes up with it.My argument was the record profits that they are getting.Look at Exxon/Mobil’s last 12 quarters.0 -
I would be surprised if Exxon had record profits in 2020, is that really the case?tempo_n_groove said:
They aren’t. Just like the oil companies aren’t interested in uncapping the wells they plugged up during the cheap oil days.mrussel1 said:
I'm not sure why you think OPEC is interested in helping to fill that void. They are trying to optimize their profit. That means allowing prices to float higher for a period of time, but not long enough to create a recession and therefore drive down demand.tempo_n_groove said:
No inflation. I can see that w the war in Ukraine as Russia wasn't supplying more oil but then I can go back to oil companies not helping to fill that void thus driving up demand and prices.mrussel1 said:
I don't understand what you're saying. You're questioning how the war in Ukraine could lead to higher oil prices?tempo_n_groove said:
I don't get how oil prices are caused by inflation?Lerxst1992 said:tempo_n_groove said:
I believe that it's not inflation but greed. The signs point to it. Oil having record profits because prices are so damn high? C'mon man...Jearlpam0925 said:
Yeah, that can be weird though. High exports means a strong US dollar, and that is and isn't a good thing. Because another anomaly is a strong dollar usually means low inflation, but we all know that's not the case (globally).tempo_n_groove said:
Gotcha.Jearlpam0925 said:
Yes, by the general definition. But that's like looking at the stock market as the economy, or anything else that values context. It also includes high levels of unemployment, sales dropping, income falling, manufacturing contracting. None of these things have happened. NBER considers all of these things when evaluating what is and isn't a recession, too.tempo_n_groove said:
Isn't 2 consecutive quarters of down GDP a recession by definition?Jearlpam0925 said:
I think the weird part about all this is it seems sometimes like people are convinced that were already in a recession. And even though we're not it's like they want to will it to happen.
I did just read that our exports are really high the last 2 quarters. Because of Russia Ukraine squabble, Europe is looking of our LP G and grains.What signs? Oil prices were up 100% from pre pandemic levels and net profits are around 9% (and that’s making up for losses during the pandemic).That’s sounds like inflation. Also energy is mid level profit net margin compared to other sectors, with plenty of sectors higher, such as communication, tech, real estate, and financials, which are over double that of the energy sector . So let’s start yelling at all the bankers now.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf
Demand went up and the oil companies/opec, have the ability to produce more oil but they don't because profits are good.
I'm failing to see how that is related to inflation or Russia for that matter as you have the two leading producers of oil not producing more.
And when energy prices rise, everything goes up with it.My argument was the record profits that they are getting.Look at Exxon/Mobil’s last 12 quarters.
The thing about oil companies is that their costs to extract crude is pretty stable, so when oil shoots up in price, their margins skyrocket. But I don't even blame them for that. Opec+ fundamentally controls the price of oil. US companies just ride the coattails of that.0
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