Seattle Has Fallen...

Let me know when you hear Linda complaining about those red shitcounties in CA, one of which, the 23rd district, is currently represented by the House repub minority leader.

SAN FRANCISCO – August 25, 2021 – A report released today by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice finds that, compared to the 35 California counties that voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election, the state’s 23 Republican-voting counties have higher rates of violent crime, including homicides.    

For decades, Republican candidates and elected officials have demanded a “get-tough” approach to crime that generated more arrests, more imprisonments, and longer prison sentences. As a result, a person is 58 percent more likely to be arrested and 41 percent more likely to be incarcerated in a Republican-voting county than in a Democratic-voting one. Likewise, 12 of the 13 highest-incarceration counties vote Republican, while 16 of the 18 lowest-incarceration counties vote Democratic.

But have the hardline approaches pursued by Republicans officials actually reduced crime? Just the opposite. Republican-voting counties are seeing lesser declines in crime and higher rates of crime, particularly violent offenses and homicides, compared to their Democratic-voting counterparts.

 Crime trends and violence worse in California’s Republican-voting counties than Democratic-voting counties — Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (cjcj.org)

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

oftenreading said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those keeping score, 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are run by repubs. I guess you can call it shatties versus shitties?

It's actually 4/10 if you go by actual murders and not per capita/100 population.

But why would you not look at data per capita? You can't compare events in different cities if you're not comparing by population (among other factors). 

It's the most murders by state though.  It's a whole different form of data if you go by per capita.  

Per capita is better for smaller areas.

Crime statisticians have always used murder rates (i.e., per capita) as a benchmark to report homicide data per state or other municipality; total murders would be incredibly misleading.

Murder rate data is simply more robust and thus more informative for law enforcement agencies, their budgets, etc. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

using per capita only when it suits your needs is a bit odd. 

If a state has the most murders in it then it has the most murders in it.  That is the data I was looking at.

NY compared to ID? Makes sense.

static111 said:

I would feel safer somewhere with less murders per capita but more overall murders than somewhere with more murders per capita but less overall murders...It just seems like better betting odds.

I would put per state and per city as the data to look at.

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

oftenreading said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those keeping score, 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are run by repubs. I guess you can call it shatties versus shitties?

It's actually 4/10 if you go by actual murders and not per capita/100 population.

But why would you not look at data per capita? You can't compare events in different cities if you're not comparing by population (among other factors). 

It's the most murders by state though.  It's a whole different form of data if you go by per capita.  

Per capita is better for smaller areas.

Crime statisticians have always used murder rates (i.e., per capita) as a benchmark to report homicide data per state or other municipality; total murders would be incredibly misleading.

Murder rate data is simply more robust and thus more informative for law enforcement agencies, their budgets, etc. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

using per capita only when it suits your needs is a bit odd. 

If a state has the most murders in it then it has the most murders in it.  That is the data I was looking at.

NY compared to ID? Makes sense.

We are up 30% on homicides I think here in NY.

Its rich reporting. But you'll never hear it on Faux.

Conclusion

 California’s 23 Republican-voting counties stand out as uniquely troubled on many fronts. Their per-capita adjusted gross incomes (totaling $25,800 in 2018) are far below those of Democratic-voting counties ($42,200), and their state and local tax contributions ($430 per capita) also substantially lag those of Democratic counties ($762) (IRS, 2021) (Table 2). Republican counties exceed Democratic-voting counties in homicide and other violent death, reported crime, criminal arrest, drug and alcohol death, gun death, and incarceration rates. All this despite the traditional advantages of Whiteness and exurban-rural locales in boosting incomes and mitigating arrests. In fact, White people in Republican counties now have higher criminal arrest rates than people of color in Democratic counties. Republican counties’ low tax contributions and greatly excessive state imprisonment rates for both adults and youth generate extra costs that must be paid by all state taxpayers.

Further, the gaps between urban/suburban-Democratic and exurban/rural-Republican California are widening, contributing to extremist politics and intractable divisions. Thirty years ago, the state’s cities White people in Republican-voting counties experienced the worst economic hardships and highest rates of violent crime. Today, it is its exurbs, small towns, and rural areas. It is important to note that the issues challenging different races and locales may stem from very different drivers. For many Republican-voting White people, resentments and fears toward perceived loss of racial status is a key factor in their rising radicalization. That is, the economic, crime, drug use, violent death (often termed “deaths of despair”), and incarceration woes increasingly afflicting White people in conservative areas appear related to internal reactions against “America's growing racial diversity and a perceived loss of U.S. global dominance” and “an effort to maintain their perceived social dominance” (Annenberg School, 2018; Case & Deaton, 2020). In contrast, poverty and violence affecting people of color are largely driven by externally imposed systemic racism. Just as state policy makers directed special interventions to stem urban problems in the 1990s, innovative measures may be necessary to address the social harms, high costs, and taxation deficits being imposed on all of California by Republican-voting counties.

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

oftenreading said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those keeping score, 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are run by repubs. I guess you can call it shatties versus shitties?

It's actually 4/10 if you go by actual murders and not per capita/100 population.

But why would you not look at data per capita? You can't compare events in different cities if you're not comparing by population (among other factors). 

It's the most murders by state though.  It's a whole different form of data if you go by per capita.  

Per capita is better for smaller areas.

Crime statisticians have always used murder rates (i.e., per capita) as a benchmark to report homicide data per state or other municipality; total murders would be incredibly misleading.

Murder rate data is simply more robust and thus more informative for law enforcement agencies, their budgets, etc. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

using per capita only when it suits your needs is a bit odd. 

If a state has the most murders in it then it has the most murders in it.  That is the data I was looking at.

well, I'm going to Seattle in a month. I guess I should change that to Steinbach Manitoba since Seattle has more murders. The percentages, be DAMNED! 

HughFreakingDillon said:

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

oftenreading said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those keeping score, 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are run by repubs. I guess you can call it shatties versus shitties?

It's actually 4/10 if you go by actual murders and not per capita/100 population.

But why would you not look at data per capita? You can't compare events in different cities if you're not comparing by population (among other factors). 

It's the most murders by state though.  It's a whole different form of data if you go by per capita.  

Per capita is better for smaller areas.

Crime statisticians have always used murder rates (i.e., per capita) as a benchmark to report homicide data per state or other municipality; total murders would be incredibly misleading.

Murder rate data is simply more robust and thus more informative for law enforcement agencies, their budgets, etc. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

using per capita only when it suits your needs is a bit odd. 

If a state has the most murders in it then it has the most murders in it.  That is the data I was looking at.

well, I'm going to Seattle in a month. I guess I should change that to Steinbach Manitoba since Seattle has more murders. The percentages, be DAMNED! 

Actually Steinbach had more in 2021.  I looked it up, lol.

HughFreakingDillon said:

tempo_n_groove said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

tempo_n_groove said:

dankind said:

tempo_n_groove said:

oftenreading said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

For those keeping score, 8 of the 10 states with the highest murder rates are run by repubs. I guess you can call it shatties versus shitties?

It's actually 4/10 if you go by actual murders and not per capita/100 population.

But why would you not look at data per capita? You can't compare events in different cities if you're not comparing by population (among other factors). 

It's the most murders by state though.  It's a whole different form of data if you go by per capita.  

Per capita is better for smaller areas.

Crime statisticians have always used murder rates (i.e., per capita) as a benchmark to report homicide data per state or other municipality; total murders would be incredibly misleading.

Murder rate data is simply more robust and thus more informative for law enforcement agencies, their budgets, etc. 

HughFreakingDillon said:

using per capita only when it suits your needs is a bit odd. 

If a state has the most murders in it then it has the most murders in it.  That is the data I was looking at.

well, I'm going to Seattle in a month. I guess I should change that to Steinbach Manitoba since Seattle has more murders. The percentages, be DAMNED! 

Actually Steinbach had more in 2021.  I looked it up, lol.

there were 43 in all of manitoba and 43 in seattle in 2021. 

where did you see Steinbach had more murders than seattle?

I found 40 in Seattle in 2021 and 43 in Steinbach.  Winnipeg.org and Seattle crime dashboard.

HughFreakingDillon said:

well, winnipeg.org doesn't exist, and there weren't 43 in Steinbach in 2021. or any one year. it's a very small, very religious, mostly dry town. that's the number for the entire province. 

haha I wouldn't expect ANYONE to have heard of Steinbach, even people in Canada. that was the point of the example. didn't go over well apparently lol. 

people here only go there to buy a car.