PHILLY (Loosely Related to The Philadelphia Phillies)

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  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,908
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    eeriepadave said:
    Heard there was still a lot of mail in ballots that have yet to be counted in the philly area :smiley:
    I don't want to celebrate yet, but it looks like the margins are going to be Ol' Joe passing Fuckface by 80-100k votes at some point. It would be fucking amazing if what puts him over the top is Philly.
    Definitely not time to celebrate yet,  still don’t trust the courts so I think Biden needs some cushion. Looking good but this game has time left.  Wish we could just skip right to inauguration day
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    Um....I don't understand how this math in PA works in Biden's favor at this moment...
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    What are you all using for source of updated counting?
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    I'm just watching TV.  Down 95k but only 85k ballots left in Philly.  I get that the mail ballots still go to Biden even outside of Philly, but is there enough...
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    370k total left.  My math has Biden winning PA with 65% of mail in.
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    97,900 down / 8% left on ABCNews right now....so tough to keep up!
    555,019 votes left to make it up....?
    I am not a math guy but that seems right to me....



    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    edited November 2020
    Cliffy6745 said:
    I'm just watching TV.  Down 95k but only 85k ballots left in Philly.  I get that the mail ballots still go to Biden even outside of Philly, but is there enough...
    Should be around 500-600k out there. Regardless, Biden's been pulling ~75/25 on mail-in ballots. As long as he does no worse than ~60/40 he's good.



    I'm mainly following the NYT numbers coming in, but have a cadre of Election Nerd Twitter that I've been checking up on.
    Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Also, this is good for real-time odds:

    https://elidourado.com/election/
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    F Me In The Brain said:
    97,900 down / 8% left on ABCNews right now....so tough to keep up!
    555,019 votes left to make it up....?
    I am not a math guy but that seems right to me....



    Which would roughly be the minimum 60/40 Biden would need. If Biden keeps up his pace the math says he wins by 100-200k votes.
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    F Me In The Brain said:
    97,900 down / 8% left on ABCNews right now....so tough to keep up!
    555,019 votes left to make it up....?
    I am not a math guy but that seems right to me....



    Which would roughly be the minimum 60/40 Biden would need. If Biden keeps up his pace the math says he wins by 100-200k votes.

    Yep...Nate just said he barring something we don't know he doesn't see how this turns out well from Trump in PA.
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Probably gonna end up with 6M margin in the popular vote, yet here we wait. It's gross.

    And, I gotta say, Georgia has a chance to be a fucking hero here for many reasons.
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025

    Over the past half hour or so, nearly 23,000 votes have come in from around Pennsylvania, and Biden has won about two-thirds of them. As a result, Trump’s lead has waned to about 90,500 votes, or about 1.4 percentage points (50.1 percent to 48.7 percent). A two-to-one ratio actually isn’t that great for Biden at this point, but that split had a lot to do with getting some votes from deeply Republican counties. Even then, though, Biden managed to break even in the latest batch from Tioga County (Trump has 75 percent overall there) and win around 63 percent of the latest from Crawford County (Trump’s at 71 percent overall). Bluer Lehigh County also came in with a sizable number of votes.

    And critically, none of this involved votes from Philadelphia County. This is probably our final update on the numbers ahead of a press conference, scheduled for 5:15 p.m. Eastern, held by Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, who will be providing an update on where things stand with the count.

  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    I am having a tough time with the math, honestly.  I know they are smarter than me, buuut I don't know.  I may very well be doing something wrong...please tell me I am

    NY Times
    T 3248210
    B 3158183
    CNN says 326k left
    If Biden wins 60%, Trump 40%, here is my totals
    T 3378610
    B 3353783
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527

  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    Alright 80k with a lot of Philly outstanding. Holy fucking shit this is happening 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    I really want Philly to be the place that takes this fucker out.
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    This is amazing. Bye bye bitch 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527

  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    Fucking call it someone!! A lot easier call for the AP than Arizona two days ago 
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,025
    Someone ring the fucking bell!!


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