Nate Silver 538

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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,954
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
    but still. if there are shenanigans on nov 3, 4, 5, etc, you can bet that fox news will be involved in shenanigans.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
    Haha, no one actually listens to that stuff tho - it'll be the Natural Born Killers Robert Downey Jr.-heads high stepping like Neon Deion on the way to the endzone.
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,899
    The door could be pretty much slammed on election night with Florida
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,954
    MayDay10 said:
    The door could be pretty much slammed on election night with Florida
    i dunno man. i do not trust florida at all. especially with their current governor.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 43,257
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
    but still. if there are shenanigans on nov 3, 4, 5, etc, you can bet that fox news will be involved in shenanigans.
    If? There's going to be all kinds of shenanigans. And lawsuits. They're going to steal this thing unless its an overwhelming EC, counted vote, win for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR; 05/03/2025, New Orleans, LA;

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  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,954
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
    but still. if there are shenanigans on nov 3, 4, 5, etc, you can bet that fox news will be involved in shenanigans.
    If? There's going to be all kinds of shenanigans. And lawsuits. They're going to steal this thing unless its an overwhelming EC, counted vote, win for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden.
    if he wins can we stop calling him sleepy woke joe basement biden? that is some trump shit and trump will be irrelevant.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    OANN will but I doubt Fox will. Sean Hannity doesn't run the network. 
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    MayDay10 said:
    The door could be pretty much slammed on election night with Florida
    i dunno man. i do not trust florida at all. especially with their current governor.
    Turnout numbers in Miami Dade don't look good so far.  I don't think Biden wins FL. 
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 

    They had clips before of 2000 and FL was one of the first states NBC called, then quickly retracted. Unreal how low their standards were for calling such an important race so early. Then they showed the famous Tim Russert Florida Florida Florida moment.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 43,257
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 
    i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

    they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
    The news side of Fox isn't terrible.  Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.  
    but still. if there are shenanigans on nov 3, 4, 5, etc, you can bet that fox news will be involved in shenanigans.
    If? There's going to be all kinds of shenanigans. And lawsuits. They're going to steal this thing unless its an overwhelming EC, counted vote, win for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden.
    if he wins can we stop calling him sleepy woke joe basement biden? that is some trump shit and trump will be irrelevant.
    Not until Team trump Treason Tax Cheat is out of office. Then I may consider retiring both monikers but I reserve my right to free speech. I won't be silenced!
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR; 05/03/2025, New Orleans, LA;

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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    btw....HOLY SHIT on these numbers coming in for Warnock in GA. Might not get that run off after all. Plus, this is really promising for Biden.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia-special/
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A few things re: PA below:

    This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

    https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

    Then this, fucking boooo:



    And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:


    The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result. 

    They had clips before of 2000 and FL was one of the first states NBC called, then quickly retracted. Unreal how low their standards were for calling such an important race so early. Then they showed the famous Tim Russert Florida Florida Florida moment.
    If I recall correctly, they called FL too early because the Panhandle hadn't closed yet. That is in Central Time.  
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    btw....HOLY SHIT on these numbers coming in for Warnock in GA. Might not get that run off after all. Plus, this is really promising for Biden.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia-special/

    Warnock is most likely headed for a run off. None of those polls have him over 50% and it’s rare to get an outright winner with 5 candidates. The other race the dem has a decent chance of winning outright, Ossoff. 
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    So this is perplexing.  We hear about 'shy' Trump voters, but here is a NC poll where Biden is up 6, but Cunningham is up 10 in the same poll.  If people were shy about telling pollsters they were voting for Trump, wouldn't you expect the opposite result?  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,709
    mrussel1 said:
    So this is perplexing.  We hear about 'shy' Trump voters, but here is a NC poll where Biden is up 6, but Cunningham is up 10 in the same poll.  If people were shy about telling pollsters they were voting for Trump, wouldn't you expect the opposite result?  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina
    Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical?  Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    So this is perplexing.  We hear about 'shy' Trump voters, but here is a NC poll where Biden is up 6, but Cunningham is up 10 in the same poll.  If people were shy about telling pollsters they were voting for Trump, wouldn't you expect the opposite result?  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina
    Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical?  Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
    yes, yes and yes.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    So this is perplexing.  We hear about 'shy' Trump voters, but here is a NC poll where Biden is up 6, but Cunningham is up 10 in the same poll.  If people were shy about telling pollsters they were voting for Trump, wouldn't you expect the opposite result?  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523605-new-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-by-6-points-in-north-carolina
    Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical?  Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
    yes, yes and yes.

    And I’ve seen the NC dem gov Cooper has been up double digits
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    I feel like this got a shit ton of play in this thread:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu-tWi3s-Ow
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    “ Take Pennsylvania, the state our forecast currently thinks is most likely to decide the election. Biden doesn’t have much extra cushion in polls there, so a 2016-magnitude polling error could deliver the state to Trump. Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — no longer quite as good as the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die but still roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)”


    90/10....hmmmmm



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