Nate Silver 538

Jearlpam0925 said:

brianlux said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher!  My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!

Thanks! Anybody out there on the interwebs reading this: we need more of yous! Too many elderly that I'd rather not die!

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?

It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it. 

If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next. 

Or am I fucking this up somehow?

It's very confusing, and sorry if I'm making it worse lol. This would apply to anyone who received an absentee/mail-in ballot. When you mean she "requested the absentee form" do you mean she requested the application and just didn't do anything with it? That's what it sounds like you're saying. If so, that's meaningless and, yes, doesn't matter - they can get in line to vote. But once you fill out that application, it's processed, and you receive it then this would apply to you.

I think the State (Dems, mostly) worried more about the "naked ballot" issue than this issue and it's going to be a problem. Hopefully I'm wrong. I know talking to my dad (lives in Pottstown), he's like, "I couldn't find the drop box at MCCC. Forget it, I'm just going to vote in person." This is someone who knows to vote, but isn't informed on this stuff. I had to tell him it wasn't that easy.

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.

I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.

This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.

I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.

This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.

I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.

This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.

I have less issue with Philly processing the ballots. Admittedly, Philly was a clusterfuck for the primary. That's because 1) the entire no excuse mail in ballot process was brand new and rolled out in a pandemic in which smaller counties just don't have the kind of turnout or population like Philly; 2) the city shut down like 80% of voting locations and consolidated. It was a circus. I know, I was there, just awful. 

But this time the actual count won't be an issue. It's just the apprehension I have regarding communication and voter lines.

I don't see it taking more than till the end of the week for the count. Dems will get out to a lead, then big R lead from there, then massive Dem roar back after all ballots counted. And he'll scream rigged, I think we all know this is how it'll play out.

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.