The coronavirus

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Comments

  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,076
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there
    Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

    Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there
    Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

    Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!
    Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,076
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there
    Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

    Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!
    Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!
    When it comes to my income I do what I have to do
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there
    Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

    Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!
    Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!
    When it comes to my income I do what I have to do
    For sure.  I just think it's funny that everyone talks about the shy Trump voter,  and say there's no such thing as a shy Biden voter.... yet here we are!
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,076
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there
    Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

    Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!
    Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!
    When it comes to my income I do what I have to do
    For sure.  I just think it's funny that everyone talks about the shy Trump voter,  and say there's no such thing as a shy Biden voter.... yet here we are!
    I have yet to see a shy trump voter.  They seem pretty loud and proud wherever they are
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • RunIntoTheRain
    RunIntoTheRain Texas Posts: 1,032
    Pretty sure the point of " a shy Trump voter" is you won't see (or hear) them. They will quietly vote for him though. 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    edited September 2020
    RunIntoTheRain said:
    Pretty sure the point of " a shy Trump voter" is you won't see (or hear) them. They will quietly vote for him though. 

    I thought that may have been part of what happened four years ago.  For every unhinged red-hat-wearing jackass, there may be a couple that have the understanding of how they look as Trump supporters...They know what Trump is but "socialism" or "taxes" or "immigrants."  They think "the PC mob will be all over me if I admit to liking Trump."

    It's always made me nervous about polls...it's been theorized that some of them don't even admit it to pollsters. They may very well be the silent majority that they claim they are. 

    Yeah, there are more loud Trump voters than there have been for any candidate in world history.  But I'm nervous about the silent but deadly.

    To the original point, yeah, you can be a silent Biden supporter in the right setting.  Even if my income doesn't depend on it, I choose at times to be quiet because being surrounded by a bunch of white nationalists screaming at me with visible spittle coming out of their mouths is very unappealing along with moderate risk / no reward.
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  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    hedonist said:
    Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 
    Yeah math is bullshit man.  I mean statistics is essentially voodoo when you get down to it. 
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    hedonist said:
    Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 
    what? that's not how it works. it's kind of, um, proven, that if you poll 1000 people, and 700 of those people say one thing, that it is accurate to say that would then mean you can multiply that to a very similar conclusion. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    mrussel1 said:
    hedonist said:
    Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 
    Yeah math is bullshit man.  I mean statistics is essentially voodoo when you get down to it. 
    LMAO
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Math? What is this foreign concept?!

    My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

    I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

    And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    hedonist said:
    Math? What is this foreign concept?!

    My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

    I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

    And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 
    it's not that the majority feels similarly. you just multiply it to get the same answer in a magnified way. 

    70 out of 100 people will be very close to 700 out of 1000 people which would be very close to 7000 out of 10,000 people and so on.....
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    hedonist said:
    Math? What is this foreign concept?!

    My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

    I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

    And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 
    No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

    Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
    3% MOE
    95% confidence
    100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

    You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

    http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html


  • FiveBelow
    FiveBelow Posts: 1,334
    100% MOE
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    mrussel1 said:
    hedonist said:
    Math? What is this foreign concept?!

    My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

    I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

    And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 
    No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

    Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
    3% MOE
    95% confidence
    100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

    You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

    http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html


    the 100 was just for illustration of the point. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Bentleyspop
    Bentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 11,411
    edited September 2020
    JW269453 said:
    100% MOE
    Wrong Moe ^
    Right Moe....

  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,162
    The headline says it all. So yea, take your selfish self to a large gathering and return to your family and community. Who cares?

    Maine wedding ‘superspreader’ event is now linked to seven deaths. None of those people attended.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/15/maine-wedding-covid/
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    mrussel1 said:
    hedonist said:
    Math? What is this foreign concept?!

    My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

    I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

    And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 
    No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

    Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
    3% MOE
    95% confidence
    100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

    You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

    http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html


    the 100 was just for illustration of the point. 
    Hedonist mentioned 100 to 200 people, so that's what I was focused on.
  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Got it, all.  Thank you.
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