The coronavirus

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there

Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!

mrussel1

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there

Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!

Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there

Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!

Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!

When it comes to my income I do what I have to do

mrussel1

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there

Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!

Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!

When it comes to my income I do what I have to do

For sure.  I just think it's funny that everyone talks about the shy Trump voter,  and say there's no such thing as a shy Biden voter.... yet here we are!

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I didn’t want to give it away because I’m working on a natsec project so I self edited before I posted.   But let’s just say a clear malt liquor that was big in the 90s and you can hopefully take it from there

Stay safe sir. Stay the hell away from human beings

Thanks mrussel1. 4 man crew.  3 think that corona is gonna go away after the election...I was asked about my political preferences today and had to be pretty vague and plead the George Carlin, because this is not my usual crew and if they don’t like me there is a chance I won’t have the work to last through the end of the year like I was planning and need.  But you know America!

Haha.. You're officially a shy Biden voter!

When it comes to my income I do what I have to do

For sure.  I just think it's funny that everyone talks about the shy Trump voter,  and say there's no such thing as a shy Biden voter.... yet here we are!

I have yet to see a shy trump voter.  They seem pretty loud and proud wherever they are

RunIntoTheRain

Pretty sure the point of " a shy Trump voter" is you won't see (or hear) them. They will quietly vote for him though. 

OnWis97

RunIntoTheRain said:

Pretty sure the point of " a shy Trump voter" is you won't see (or hear) them. They will quietly vote for him though. 

I thought that may have been part of what happened four years ago.  For every unhinged red-hat-wearing jackass, there may be a couple that have the understanding of how they look as Trump supporters...They know what Trump is but "socialism" or "taxes" or "immigrants."  They think "the PC mob will be all over me if I admit to liking Trump."

It's always made me nervous about polls...it's been theorized that some of them don't even admit it to pollsters. They may very well be the silent majority that they claim they are. 

Yeah, there are more loud Trump voters than there have been for any candidate in world history.  But I'm nervous about the silent but deadly.

To the original point, yeah, you can be a silent Biden supporter in the right setting.  Even if my income doesn't depend on it, I choose at times to be quiet because being surrounded by a bunch of white nationalists screaming at me with visible spittle coming out of their mouths is very unappealing along with moderate risk / no reward.

hedonist

Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 

mrussel1

hedonist said:

Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 

Yeah math is bullshit man.  I mean statistics is essentially voodoo when you get down to it. 

HughFreakingDillon

hedonist said:

Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 

what? that's not how it works. it's kind of, um, proven, that if you poll 1000 people, and 700 of those people say one thing, that it is accurate to say that would then mean you can multiply that to a very similar conclusion. 

HughFreakingDillon

mrussel1 said:

hedonist said:

Polls are bullshit anyway. A few represent the many?  Sure. 

Yeah math is bullshit man.  I mean statistics is essentially voodoo when you get down to it. 

LMAO

hedonist

Math? What is this foreign concept?!

My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 

HughFreakingDillon

hedonist said:

Math? What is this foreign concept?!

My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 

it's not that the majority feels similarly. you just multiply it to get the same answer in a magnified way. 

70 out of 100 people will be very close to 700 out of 1000 people which would be very close to 7000 out of 10,000 people and so on.....

mrussel1

hedonist said:

Math? What is this foreign concept?!

My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 

No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
3% MOE
95% confidence
100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

FiveBelow

100% MOE

HughFreakingDillon

mrussel1 said:

hedonist said:

Math? What is this foreign concept?!

My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 

No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
3% MOE
95% confidence
100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

the 100 was just for illustration of the point. 

Bentleyspop

JW269453 said:

100% MOE

Wrong Moe ^
Right Moe....

Halifax2TheMax

The headline says it all. So yea, take your selfish self to a large gathering and return to your family and community. Who cares?

Maine wedding ‘superspreader’ event is now linked to seven deaths. None of those people attended.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/15/maine-wedding-covid/

mrussel1

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

hedonist said:

Math? What is this foreign concept?!

My thought is that when I see X amount of people respond a certain way and it automatically follows that the majority feel similarly? Doesn’t make sense. I typically see asterisks indicating that they’re based on 100 or 200 people polled...or some relatively small number.

I also think polls are as reliable as people’s honesty. Not much confidence in either. 

And, why have I never been polled? I feel like I’m missing out or something. 

No, 100 to 200 people would never be the sample size for a MOE of +- 3-4%.  That number has to be closer to 1000.  Then the poll is adjusted for assumed registration of democrats and republicans.  It's rock solid science.  

Here is the calculator I use for work.  If you change the variables to:
3% MOE
95% confidence
100,000,000 people (about how many voted nationally)

You'll see that the survey size is 1067 people.  That's about right on.  Obviously states have fewer voters, but you'll notice that the sample size does not go down by much as you reduce the population.  Simple probabilities.  And then if you look at the alternate scenarios, you'll see that sampling 100 people would give you a 10% MOE.  Obviously that would be worthless. 

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

the 100 was just for illustration of the point. 

Hedonist mentioned 100 to 200 people, so that's what I was focused on.

hedonist

Got it, all.  Thank you.