The coronavirus

Lerxst1992 · May 2020

More propaganda SC? Sweden is 6th in the world in deaths per million, of countries with at least 10,000 cases. No thank you. People start sacrificing their parents grandparents aunts and uncles and I guarantee you “the economy” is screwed long term.

The point of “delaying cases“ is to keep critical healthcare resources from being overwhelmed, to let doctors learn how to successfully treat “severe cases” and give scientists time to hopefully develop treatments.

You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.

Halifax2TheMax · May 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

More propaganda SC? Sweden is 6th in the world in deaths per million, of countries with at least 10,000 cases. No thank you. People start sacrificing their parents grandparents aunts and uncles and I guarantee you “the economy” is screwed long term.

The point of “delaying cases“ is to keep critical healthcare resources from being overwhelmed, to let doctors learn how to successfully treat “severe cases” and give scientists time to hopefully develop treatments.

You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.

Playa?

mrussel1 · May 2020

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Johan Giesecke has an article this morning in THE LANCET

The invisible pandemic

Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden's relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one's errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity.1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium.2

It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries.

/.../

These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.

More at the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext

It seems to me that Sweden's neighbors are the right comparison of strategies, vs Spain, UK, etc. Second, flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals was a prime objective. But now that Remdesivir shows promise to reduce symptoms and recovery time, and it sounds like there are vaccine opportunities, it seems to me that holding out as long as possible from a further spread would be beneficial. I haven't followed all of this commentary on the Swedish model, but this defense feels like a bit of a reach.

oftenreading · May 2020

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.

This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.

I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.

Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434

Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.

In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.

Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.

23scidoo · May 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/why-has-eastern-europe-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west

dignin · May 2020

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.

This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.

I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.

Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434

Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.

In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.

Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.

Bunch of NDP commies.

oftenreading · May 2020

dignin said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.

This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.

I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.

Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434

Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.

In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.

Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.

Bunch of NDP commies.

Absolutely!

Spiritual_Chaos · May 2020

Lerxst1992 said:
You went from pro sanders to pro trump rhetoric in months.

Does this mean that Trump believes Universal healthcare should be the very baseline of a citizens right, arguing for some good ol'e social democratic welfare state safety nets at his rallies and considers Jason X to be very much underrated in the Friday the 13th film series?

Spiritual_Chaos · May 2020

The US Secretary of State assumed that the corona virus is man-made - and comes from a lab in China.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell dismisses the statement as "rumors and myths".

- I haven't seen any evidence pointing in that direction, he tells Aftonbladet.

ZIP IT TEGNELL. LETS NOT GET A TRADE WAR ON OUR HANDS!

mfc2006 · May 2020

Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.

I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.

pjl44 · May 2020

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.

This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.

I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.

Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434

Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.

In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.

Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.

Everything that you've posted seems to jibe with the most reasonable stuff I've read. Meanwhile, two neighboring towns near me are requiring people to wear masks even outside with the threat of a $300 fine hanging over it.

My (I think) unpopular opinion is that a lot of Governors are getting higher marks than they deserve, only because people are contrasting their leadership to Trump.

bbiggs · May 2020

mfc2006 said:

Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.

I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.

Good luck, man. This is going to start happening quite a bit I suspect. The whole thing is a mess with very few good answers at this point. So many people I know are chomping at the bit to get everything opened back up. I understand the need to slowly open up certain parts of life in phases, but I know a lot of people that think a full on re-opening needs to take place. We cannot just turn the light switch from off to on without repercussions.

brianlux · May 2020

Spiritual_Chaos said:

The US Secretary of State assumed that the corona virus is man-made - and comes from a lab in China.
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell dismisses the statement as "rumors and myths".
- I haven't seen any evidence pointing in that direction, he tells Aftonbladet.

ZIP IT TEGNELL. LETS NOT GET A TRADE WAR ON OUR HANDS!

Yeah, it ticks me off that some of these politicians/ heads of state etc. are turning the pandemic into international conflict. Says a lot about the inherent nature of humans who are in power to be prone to conflict and war. Makes a good argument for anarchy.

brianlux · May 2020

mfc2006 said:

Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.

I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.

Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that. I would insist on fellow workers distancing, and having hand sanitizer at the workplace. I hope you can continue to work at home as many days as possible. Maybe there is some way you can illustrate to them that you have been more productive working at home?

Meltdown99 · May 2020

Ontario is starting to re-open Friday May 8th. Bout’ time.

pjl44 · May 2020

Cuomo is going to sack out-of-state health care workers with NY state income tax. That seems like an extremely short-sighted move.

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo

brianlux · May 2020

Meltdown99 said:

Ontario is starting to re-open Friday May 8th. Bout’ time.

Some careful "re-opening" is going to be necessary, but I wouldn't be to cavalier in speaking about an action that will likely lead to more deaths.

mfc2006 · May 2020

brianlux said:

mfc2006 said:

Well, it looks like I may be going back to the office on Monday. I have a call with my boss later today. I personally think this is way too early and will let them know that I can easily do my job from home and that I've been far more productive without having to sit through way too many meetings.

I may offer a hybrid approach with me coming in 2 days/week and working home the rest of the week. We'll see how this goes. Ugh.

Oh man, I'm sorry to hear that. I would insist on fellow workers distancing, and having hand sanitizer at the workplace. I hope you can continue to work at home as many days as possible. Maybe there is some way you can illustrate to them that you have been more productive working at home?

That's what I'm planning on doing during my meeting with them this afternoon. Fingers crossed....

bbiggs · May 2020

pjl44 said:

Cuomo is going to sack out-of-state health care workers with NY state income tax. That seems like an extremely short-sighted move.

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo

100% agreed. That’s nuts.

dignin · May 2020

oftenreading said:

dignin said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

pjl44 said:

oftenreading said:

Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.

This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.

I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:
New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.

Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434

Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.

In BC we've been extremely lucky to have Dr. Bonnie Henry at the helm managing our response. She's a former military physician who left the forces and retrained in epidemiology/public health and she's excellent - smart, very knowledgeable, professional, calm and empathic. She has been giving briefings six days a week with detailed breakdowns of all cases in the province including how many have recovered, which is a hopeful statistic. She has also been providing information on our testing capacity, research into the virus and treatments, and clearly explaining the reasons for the restrictions that we have and which ones we don't - for instance, she has said that the science does not support the need to wear masks when people are exercising outside as long as you're not congregating in a group, so she encourages us to get outside and stay active.

Our provincial minister of health has also done a good job working with her, and between them public policy has flowed from science. I think that the vast majority of the province has appreciated her leadership through this. On the weekend there was a protest on the grounds of our provincial legislature by a group protesting the restrictions. A whopping 8 people showed up, carrying earnest and overly wordy signs.... and they still all stood at least 2 metres apart. Although of course we all wish this was over, I think that demonstrates how few people actually think she's not on the right and necessary track.

Bunch of NDP commies.

Absolutely!

Would love to have Notley back here.

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