2020 Fall North American rumour thread

Mike D88 · March 2020

Vedd Hedd said:

My guess on fall dates....they arent happening either. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the EARLIEST we can expect a vaccine is 18 months. And unless the entire population gets the virus, and has antibodies, as soon as we start to "resume normal activities" another outbreak is going to occur, and the lockdown process will start all over again.

This is what the modeling is indicating. Normal life doesn't resume until a vaccine is proven safe and effective. Anyone rescheduling for <12 months out isn't just guessing, they're being overly optimistic.

EDIT: One possible "blind spot" in the modeling is the emergence of a viable treatment (such as an antiviral or hydroxychloroquine), which does not replace a vaccine, but buys time until a vaccine is available. But manufacturing and distributing such treatments would be a monumental undertaking, with every person requiring enough dosage to last 12-18 months.

RatherStarved · March 2020

Mike D88 said:

Vedd Hedd said:

My guess on fall dates....they arent happening either. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the EARLIEST we can expect a vaccine is 18 months. And unless the entire population gets the virus, and has antibodies, as soon as we start to "resume normal activities" another outbreak is going to occur, and the lockdown process will start all over again.

This is what the modeling is indicating. Normal life doesn't resume until a vaccine is proven safe and effective. Anyone rescheduling for <12 months out isn't just guessing, they're being overly optimistic.

EDIT: One possible "blind spot" in the modeling is the emergence of a viable treatment (such as an antiviral or hydroxychloroquine), which does not replace a vaccine, but buys time until a vaccine is available. But manufacturing and distributing such treatments would be a monumental undertaking, with every person requiring enough dosage to last 12-18 months.

You may be right. Hopefully there’s a better scenario than that. Anyway if they announced fall dates I’d book refundable accommodations and hold off on anything non-refundable. I wouldn’t mind being able to book on that basis to at least have something to look forward to, even if it is subsequently deferred again.

Lost In Ohio · March 2020

kst said:

Kentucky Derby rescheduled to September. That’s a good sign for a fall tour still being possible.

They also own their own venue. That's easy to re-schedule.

PJNB · March 2020

Mike D88 said:

Vedd Hedd said:

My guess on fall dates....they arent happening either. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the EARLIEST we can expect a vaccine is 18 months. And unless the entire population gets the virus, and has antibodies, as soon as we start to "resume normal activities" another outbreak is going to occur, and the lockdown process will start all over again.

This is what the modeling is indicating. Normal life doesn't resume until a vaccine is proven safe and effective. Anyone rescheduling for <12 months out isn't just guessing, they're being overly optimistic.

EDIT: One possible "blind spot" in the modeling is the emergence of a viable treatment (such as an antiviral or hydroxychloroquine), which does not replace a vaccine, but buys time until a vaccine is available. But manufacturing and distributing such treatments would be a monumental undertaking, with every person requiring enough dosage to last 12-18 months.

I am glad I am not looking at that model as "the" model. There are way too many unknowns out there right now to trust any of them as anything other than speculation. The next 2 months are going to tell us a lot about what we are in for in the long run.

radial21 · March 2020

Let me give an update on some info I posted a few weeks ago.

The Pittsburgh show on 9/4 is still confirmed, no plans have been made as of now to change that. My source has been told that the announcement date is now listed as TBA rather than the initial 3/27 I reported. I will continue to post updates as I hear them...

PJNB · March 2020

radial21 said:

Let me give an update on some info I posted a few weeks ago.

The Pittsburgh show on 9/4 is still confirmed, no plans have been made as of now to change that. My source has been told that the announcement date is now listed as TBA rather than the initial 3/27 I reported. I will continue to post updates as I hear them...

Thanks for the update! Crazy your source even knew the date they were going to announce. People that shared here in the past did not even have privy to that info.

RatherStarved · March 2020

PJNB said:

radial21 said:

Let me give an update on some info I posted a few weeks ago.

The Pittsburgh show on 9/4 is still confirmed, no plans have been made as of now to change that. My source has been told that the announcement date is now listed as TBA rather than the initial 3/27 I reported. I will continue to post updates as I hear them...

Thanks for the update! Crazy your source even knew the date they were going to announce. People that shared here in the past did not even have privy to that info.

Yes, thanks. The fact that it has not been changed so far at the very least means they have not decided to cancel all North American shows this year. I am cautiously optimistic about a fall tour in NA. And Pittsburgh PA will be perfectly lovely around Labor Day. It really will.

D-Rod · March 2020

radial21 said:

Let me give an update on some info I posted a few weeks ago.

The Pittsburgh show on 9/4 is still confirmed, no plans have been made as of now to change that. My source has been told that the announcement date is now listed as TBA rather than the initial 3/27 I reported. I will continue to post updates as I hear them...

Thanks for the update

RatherStarved · March 2020

Mike D88 said:

Vedd Hedd said:

My guess on fall dates....they arent happening either. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the EARLIEST we can expect a vaccine is 18 months. And unless the entire population gets the virus, and has antibodies, as soon as we start to "resume normal activities" another outbreak is going to occur, and the lockdown process will start all over again.

This is what the modeling is indicating. Normal life doesn't resume until a vaccine is proven safe and effective. Anyone rescheduling for <12 months out isn't just guessing, they're being overly optimistic.

EDIT: One possible "blind spot" in the modeling is the emergence of a viable treatment (such as an antiviral or hydroxychloroquine), which does not replace a vaccine, but buys time until a vaccine is available. But manufacturing and distributing such treatments would be a monumental undertaking, with every person requiring enough dosage to last 12-18 months.

Front page article in the Toronto Star today quoting from research led by the University of Toronto: “The disruptive measures must continue for more than six months to slash the size of the epidemic peak by more than half”.

MFC.

Melzombie · March 2020

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

my_wave · March 2020

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

feels that way, but i hope i'm wrong...

GlowGirl · March 2020

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

I was just thinking that. But trying not to let my mind go there or to other negative thoughts that keep creeping in. Trying to stay positive.

RatherStarved · March 2020

I think it depends if a treatment is found, If not there’s a risk of no shows at all this year. I would find that devastating, a little because of the tour, but mostly because of the public health disaster that implies.

chitownp76 · March 2020

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

pbultimate · March 2020

Melzombie said:

anyone else worried that entire year will be wiped out for concerts?

Worried? No. Expect it? Yes.

More concerned about what happens when they release everyone back into the wild.

Tim Simmons · March 2020

chitownp76 said:

Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

Weeks? more like 2-3 months.

Zod · March 2020

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer. China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Lerxst1992 · March 2020

Zod said:

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer. China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Fauci is starting to say optimistically 45 days to peak so assuming downcurve is similar to up curve we are looking at June 15. 60 day curve would be July 15th. Then the CDC will need to be able to know if a second wave is possible when we start seeing colder weather in late Sept. Many experts are starting to warn all clear may not be for 18 months, unfreaking believable.

chilisuarez · March 2020

I predict the same tour dates ... but 2021

D-Rod · March 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

Zod said:

chitownp76 said:

Europe and China is our crystal ball. What happens there now, will portray what will happen here. At least that is how I am looking at it. Once they return to normal business operations and protocol, I would expect we do the same, just a few weeks later

I feel like Europe is closer. China was able to be a little more strict with isolating it's population than we've seen in north america or Europe.

Fauci is starting to say optimistically 45 days to peak so assuming downcurve is similar to up curve we are looking at June 15. 60 day curve would be July 15th. Then the CDC will need to be able to know if a second wave is possible when we start seeing colder weather in late Sept. Many experts are starting to warn all clear may not be for 18 months, unfreaking believable.

Keep in mind. Self isolation, social distancing , closures , cancelations and postponement are meant to slow down the spread , not stop it. Nothing will stop it and almost all of us will come down with it eventually. Having all of us come down with it at once is the ultimate fear.

I shouldn’t say “almost all of us” will come down with it. How about “many of us” will come down with it eventually

2020 Fall North American rumour thread

Comments

Categories