Halifax2TheMax said:

Only the best people, only the best, folks. And these might end up being the heroes for leaving. Government firing on all cylinders, like a well oiled machine, working hard for the American people. Suckers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qw7uAkCag7FPX6qI9pBAAzi1a4sgyD3k5xvleIOwL-s/edit#gid=0

That is crazy. Wow - seeing it on paper like that has an impact.

dignin said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Only the best people, only the best, folks. And these might end up being the heroes for leaving. Government firing on all cylinders, like a well oiled machine, working hard for the American people. Suckers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qw7uAkCag7FPX6qI9pBAAzi1a4sgyD3k5xvleIOwL-s/edit#gid=0

Time in Mooches.

The Mooch had been all over the airwaves defending Team Trump Treason. I haven't seen him of late. Wonder why?

my2hands said:

And with all the circus surrounding the Cohen testimony, Trumps approval rating climbs... 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/04/president-donald-trumps-approval-numbers-continue-climb/3053565002/

The Mueller probe is going to be a dud as well, unless they indict a family member... the general attitude has been collusion with the Russians and that Trump is beholden to the Kremlin and that just isnt the case it seems... all of this hype by the media and the non-Trump crowd (myself included) set the expectation that he was a russian stooge,  and they just dont have it........

Dems better choose wisely in 2020

Don't shoot the messenger, better wake up from dreamland folks

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
His approval rating is down almost 1% since Cohen stuff last week. New Quinnipiac out today actually has it at 38%. Terrible. 

His numbers have always fluctuated from all time lowest to almost all time lowest. With the lowest ceiling in polling history (by over 15%) by a country mile.

Horrendous figures for an incumbent who inherited an economy like this. 

The messenger is mistaken....but yes, the dems better choose wisely. 

The Juggler said:

WINNING!

Shocker!

Some more timely info on Trump's polling
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/politics/2020-bad-news-trump/index.html

Early polling suggests 2020 will be about Trump. That's bad news for him.

my2hands said:

So in December he is losing to a generic candidate by 14 points...

In March that is down to 7 points... yeah, thats not exactly a good thing

I'm not sure what you achieve by constantly pointing out he is unpopular... he's been unpopular since he rode the escalator down... i sure hope the hubris we saw in 2016 doesn't come back, that shit killed us... i heard every day how far ahead Hillary was in the polls and that Trump had slim chances of winning... the last nbc/wsj poll has him at 47% with registered voters... that is after Cohen... so pardon me if i'm not on cruise control thinking this is in the bag

And the messenger was not mistaken, did you read the article? His numbers ticked up.... Also the only polls i'm concerned with are registered voters and likely voters, not concerned with generic polls

Hubris is the enemy

Okay. First of all, please don't take offense to what I am about to say. And please don't run to the moderator like the last time we disagreed. People can have discussion and disagree and still remain civil and not have to feel the need to run to a moderator and risk having a thread shut down just because they were proven wrong. 

So--what the hell are you talking about? You're not sure "what I want to achieve" by continuing to point out how unpopular he is? Dude, I was replying to your post about his approval ratings. A presidential approval rating is a measure of how popular, or unpopular a president is. That is literally the whole point of those things.

You saw one poll and you thought it meant something so you posted it. In response I pointed out that in the grand scheme of things it didn't mean exactly what you thought it did. And, by the way, you're wrong about it showing him at 47%. It was 46%.

The NBC/WSJ poll you're referencing was taking during the time frame of 2/24-2/27. This is NOT after the Cohen testimonies last week as you have suggested. Cohen's public testimony occurred ON the 27th--the last day this survey took place. So when you say the Cohen stuff is totally factored in and this is proof that these things don't matter, you're simply wrong. I pointed out that his approval numbers (or popularity as you put it) have ranged form all time lowest to almost all time lowest. They go down during shit like the shut down and Charlottesville, and then they come back up when those things are over. But the point is they come back to all time or almost all time lowest numbers ever. Look at the chart on 538. This is normal. He at no point ever has even come close to any other president's ceiling. This is hugely important when looking at his chances in 2020. Any other president who inherited an economy like this would have approvals close to 60% would be blowing out all 2020 challengers. Instead he loses to all of them. 

Also--I've pointed out numerous times to Trump supporters who always want to cherry pick polls that it's best to look at the average of such things to get the best overall picture. As 538 shows, shortly after the NBC (46%) poll, a few other polls have come out:

Gallup has him at 43% more recently.
IDB/TIPP has him at 41% more recently
Morning Consult has him at 41% more recently.
Ispos has him at 39% more recently.
Quinippiac has him at 38% more recently.

^These are all, generally, highly rated polls on 538 and a better reflection on where things stand after the Cohen stuff. Hell, he even lost a point or two on Rasmussen recently. 

Add it all up and you have his overall number dropping by about 1% in just the last week......SINCE the Cohen public hearing happened.

See fo yo self: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

You can talk about hubris all you want....but coming with correct facts would better support your argument. 

cincybearcat said:

I'm not sure why we are arguing about polls.  If there is anything we have learned about polls from 2016 is that they do not seem to be reliable indication in regards to Trump specifically.

I personally don't care if it's 46, 47, 37, 38, wth ever.  I especially don't care about the polls in March 2019.  So keep arguing over "data" that has a 50% chance (my own data polling) to be shit.

Not arguing. I was correcting his interpretation of the data. Also national polling in 2016 was pretty darn accurate considering the pop vote totals.

cincybearcat said:

I'm not sure why we are arguing about polls.  If there is anything we have learned about polls from 2016 is that they do not seem to be reliable indication in regards to Trump specifically.

I personally don't care if it's 46, 47, 37, 38, wth ever.  I especially don't care about the polls in March 2019.  So keep arguing over "data" that has a 50% chance (my own data polling) to be shit.

To me, the bolded line cincy is extremely critical.

First, I can only think of one purpose of paying attention to polls at this point in time: to try to influence people to vote one way or another. How about looking at the state of affairs in the country and the beliefs and opinions of politicians to establish that way to vote?

Next, the political situations in the States are evolving practically weekly. It seems insane to me to assume there won't be plenty of sets of results-altering events between now and the next election, making these results a moot point (unless, as I mentioned, an individual wants to be influenced by groupthink and/or cherry-picked poll results from <your favourite fake news poll> to confirm their right-ness).

cincybearcat said:

The Juggler said:

cincybearcat said:

I'm not sure why we are arguing about polls.  If there is anything we have learned about polls from 2016 is that they do not seem to be reliable indication in regards to Trump specifically.

I personally don't care if it's 46, 47, 37, 38, wth ever.  I especially don't care about the polls in March 2019.  So keep arguing over "data" that has a 50% chance (my own data polling) to be shit.

Not arguing. I was correcting his interpretation of the data. Also national polling in 2016 was pretty darn accurate considering the pop vote totals.

I keep seeing that written and no it wasn't.  The election is not based on popular vote.  The polls know that.  If they are using popular vote to say who is going to win the election and their polls do not account for the electoral college...well then their polls are even worse than I thought.  There were election polls...they were very wrong.  I don't understand why people feel the need to keep saying the polls were actually right, they weren't, they didn't meet their objectives.  Anyhow - not meaning to 'attack' you personally on this point.  I've just seen it over and over and over.

I'm sorry but this is wildly inaccurate (much like the election projections in '16)

They're not using popular vote to say who was going to win the election and there were not election polls, there were election projections based on statewide polling. And as we've seen there were a few swing states where polling was curiously off by quite a bit. All of those projections that had HRC with 70%, 80% chances of winning? They were based off of state wide polling to then get a feel for how the electoral college would turn out. They were not based on national polling. 

Point of national polling and approval rating is to get the feel for how the country as a whole feels about a candidate or their president. Totally different than projecting the outcome of the electoral college. 

Nobody feels a need to just say national polling was right. People feel the need to correct those who say they were just wrong. Usually those who say they were wrong are confusing them with all the electoral college projections like you've done here. Two different things. 

The Juggler said:

cincybearcat said:

The Juggler said:

cincybearcat said:

I'm not sure why we are arguing about polls.  If there is anything we have learned about polls from 2016 is that they do not seem to be reliable indication in regards to Trump specifically.

I personally don't care if it's 46, 47, 37, 38, wth ever.  I especially don't care about the polls in March 2019.  So keep arguing over "data" that has a 50% chance (my own data polling) to be shit.

Not arguing. I was correcting his interpretation of the data. Also national polling in 2016 was pretty darn accurate considering the pop vote totals.

I keep seeing that written and no it wasn't.  The election is not based on popular vote.  The polls know that.  If they are using popular vote to say who is going to win the election and their polls do not account for the electoral college...well then their polls are even worse than I thought.  There were election polls...they were very wrong.  I don't understand why people feel the need to keep saying the polls were actually right, they weren't, they didn't meet their objectives.  Anyhow - not meaning to 'attack' you personally on this point.  I've just seen it over and over and over.

I'm sorry but this is wildly inaccurate (much like the election projections in '16)

They're not using popular vote to say who was going to win the election and there were not election polls, there were election projections based on statewide polling. And as we've seen there were a few swing states where polling was curiously off by quite a bit. All of those projections that had HRC with 70%, 80% chances of winning? They were based off of state wide polling to then get a feel for how the electoral college would turn out. They were not based on national polling. 

Point of national polling and approval rating is to get the feel for how the country as a whole feels about a candidate or their president. Totally different than projecting the outcome of the electoral college. 

Nobody feels a need to just say national polling was right. People feel the need to correct those who say they were just wrong. Usually those who say they were wrong are confusing them with all the electoral college projections like you've done here. Two different things. 

We will just have to disagree.  I'm probably not articulating what I mean as well as I should.  

When talking about the polls that were wrong I was referring to them projecting a winner in the election.  But anyhow, you are right in that there are many different levels of polling, etc and it's detail oriented and I guess I don't feel like going back into the details on it since it doesn't matter.