Black voter support for Trump

135

Comments

  • Posts: 30,881
    JC29856 said:
    Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?
    You're missing the point.  The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population.  That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women,  AAs, etc.  But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them.  For a poll to measure AA support of trump,  it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier,  because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people.  And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole,  the number would be even smaller.  Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers.  This is basic statistics. And again,  likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.  
    Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday.  This is just another example. 
      
  • Posts: 9,617
    mrussel1 said:
    You're missing the point.  The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population.  That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women,  AAs, etc.  But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them.  For a poll to measure AA support of trump,  it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier,  because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people.  And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole,  the number would be even smaller.  Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers.  This is basic statistics. And again,  likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.  
    Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday.  This is just another example. 
      
    aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?
  • Posts: 30,881
    JC29856 said:
    aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?
    Too many words for you to digest?
  • Posts: 9,617
    mrussel1 said:
    Too many words for you to digest?
    I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.
    I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
    Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
    I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda. 
  • Posts: 42,198
    JC29856 said:
    I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.
    I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
    Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
    I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda. 
    Sure. Sure you are. Mail the poster.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Posts: 9,617
    Good night...good luck!
  • Posts: 30,881
    JC29856 said:
    I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.
    I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
    Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
    I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda. 
    Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false.  Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups.  There's nothing wrong with their methods,  although I think they have always oversampled Republicans,  that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans.  But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did. 

    I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense. 
  • Posts: 42,198
    mrussel1 said:
    Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false.  Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups.  There's nothing wrong with their methods,  although I think they have always oversampled Republicans,  that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans.  But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did. 

    I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense. 
    Surprised?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,662
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Posts: 42,198
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    3D, D’ing yo! No worries but don’t ever take a bet. He don’t pay up, yo! Because when the banks empty, the tank is empty too, yo!
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,662
    3D, D’ing yo! No worries but don’t ever take a bet. He don’t pay up, yo! Because when the banks empty, the tank is empty too, yo!
    I hear ya!  Seems like it's all guessoline in some tank these days.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Posts: 30,881
    Surprised?
    Is it me? Am I being unclear?  I'm not hyping one poll over another here. 
  • Posts: 42,198
    mrussel1 said:
    Is it me? Am I being unclear?  I'm not hyping one poll over another here. 
    It’s definitely not you. You ever make an offer and not pay up?
     
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    JC29856 said:
    I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.
    I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
    Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
    I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda. 
    I think that as usual, whether intentionally or not (my vote is for the former - you seem to care not about anything but introducing skepticism), you have completely misunderstood mrussel.

    His comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs.

    You don't need to know fuck-all about any other poll to write this conclusion from Rasmussen off.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
  • Posts: 30,881
    And to put a finer point on it, Rasmussen never even drew the conclusion.  It seems obvious to me that someone in the white house read the cross tabs and drew their own conclusions.  
  • Vancouver, BC Posts: 50,668
    OP got owned on this one, lol. I can't believe anyone would actually believe those false poll numbers, no matter where they saw them or how some jerk fluffed the poll. That poll result just seemed immediately and completely unbelievable/ridiculous to me. I mean seriously, I've got a bridge to sell to anyone who would buy that Trump has that much support from Black America.
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
  • Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    PJ_Soul said:
    OP got owned on this one, lol. I can't believe anyone would actually believe those false poll numbers, no matter where they saw them or how some jerk fluffed the poll. That poll result just seemed immediately and completely unbelievable/ridiculous to me. I mean seriously, I've got a bridge to sell to anyone who would buy that Trump has that much support from Black America.
    All I know is that bridge sales must be up since '17.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
  • Posts: 9,617
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


  • Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    To reiterate:

    mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.

    This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump. 

    I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
  • Posts: 30,881
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    Who the fuck cares if you trust exit polling.  If you don't, then wait an hour when the final returns are in.  My God, you can't possibly be this dense.  

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