Black voter support for Trump

mrussel1

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

flywallyfly said:

If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year). 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15

Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll.  I read the link, don't see it.  It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis.  It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls.  How many did the pollsters talk to?  It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly.  Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details.  Help a brother out.  

All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?

My question wasn't about method,  it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll,  and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample. 

blackhawks

So....we now care what color likes who now?  We have stooped that low?

Bentleyspop

rgambs said:

Damn facts, always getting in the way.

As I said before it is well known that facts have a liberal bias

josevolution

blackhawks said:

So....we now care what color likes who now?  We have stooped that low?

No we care about all colors to be treated equal...

mrussel1

blackhawks said:

So....we now care what color likes who now?  We have stooped that low?

Yeah, next thing you know,  we'll care that women think.  It's crazy. 

Spiritual_Chaos

blackhawks said:

So....we now care what color likes who now?  We have stooped that low?

What's low about it?

mcgruff10

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/18/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-black-voters/index.html

First things first: The theme song of the week is Gathering Crowds, by John Scott from the television show "This Week In Baseball."

Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that President Donald Trump's approval rating is 41%, with a disapproval rating of 54%. That's largely consistent with live-interview national polling taken the last few months.

When you break it down by race, Trump's approval rating is 9% among black voters. His disapproval rating is 85% among them. 

What's the point: There is another poll out in which more than 30% of black voters supposedly approve of Trump's job performance. Trump's biggest fans have trumpeted this poll as a sign that he is breaking through with African-Americans. The problem is the poll is almost certainly incorrect. 

Polls of higher quality such as Quinnipiac's -- probability-based polls that are transparent about their data -- have consistently found Trump's approval rating to be much lower. The President's approval rating in these polls completed since July has averaged 12% with African-Americans. His disapproval rating has averaged 84%. 

Here's the thing though: It does actually seem that Trump has gained support among African-Americans since the 2016 election. 

The network exit polls had Trump winning only 8% among black voters in 2016. Hillary Clinton took 89% of their vote. That is, Clinton won black voters by an 81-percentage-point margin.

Trump's average net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) with blacks right now is -72 points. In other words, he's shrunk his deficit by 9 points.

I would argue, though, that the President has made an even bigger improvement. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, we can look at a post-election Pew Research Center study with verified voters. Pew found that Clinton had an even larger margin 85-point margin with black voters, of 91% to 6%. If this study were correct, it would mean that Trump had doubled his black support since the election. (Note: Trump's approval rating with blacks in a Pew poll in June, not included in our average, was 14%. Again, this suggests he has gained since the election.) 

Even with averaging, the African-American subsample in these polls is small enough that our current estimate of Trump's approval rating comes with a fairly wide margin of error. That's why I decided to look at the President's average approval rating since April in Gallup's tracking poll. Doing so gives us a total sample of about 2,500 black respondents, a fairly robust sample size. 

In this Gallup data since April, Trump's approval rating has averaged 13%. His disapproval rating has averaged 84%. Both of which are slightly better for Trump than our average since July. 

What's interesting is that when you compare Trump's approval rating in Gallup polling with the percentage of the vote he got against Clinton in every other ethnic or racial group, Trump is doing worse now than he did back in 2016. 

Is it possible that these high-quality pollsters are simply missing black respondents who dislike Trump? Sure. That, though, is a theory without any evidence that I know of. 

Could it be that some African-Americans are saying they approve of the President but they won't end up voting Republican in an election? Of course. Additionally, many black voters undecided on Trump may go with the Democrats in the end. That said, there doesn't seem to be any sign of that in polling from Marist College, Quinnipiac, Pew or the The Washington Post. The Democratic margin on the generic congressional ballot with black voters isn't any greater in these polls than Trump's net approval rating among them would imply. 

It just seems that for whatever reason the President has picked up a small, but statistically significant, amount of support among African-Americans. The fact that he has done so while losing support among all other racial groups makes it that much more impressive. 

It's not clear that this shift in sentiment will make much of a difference in 2018. Democrats still hold a sizable lead on the generic congressional ballot. A lead large enough that they should win control of the House, if everything holds through November. 

Still, the importance of even a slight shift in African-American voter sentiment shouldn't be underestimated. They make up greater than 10% of the US electorate, and more in key swing states like Florida, Michigan and Virginia. 

If you were to apply the changes we see in Trump's approval rating among blacks compared with his vote share in 2016 and all other groups voted the same, it would mean a shift in the national margin of about 1 percentage point toward him. In these swing states mentioned, it could be even greater.

One point may not seem like a lot, but remember that's half of Clinton's national margin in 2016. George W. Bush was able to win 2004 in part because he made a small gain among black voters similar to that Trump seems to have made since his own election. 

If Trump is able to hold on to his additional African-American support, it could aid him in 2020.

brianlux

Jesus Christ, how much are they paying these people to say these things?  I don't know any black or Hispanics who approve of Trump.  Not one.

mcgruff10

brianlux said:

Jesus Christ, how much are they paying these people to say these things?  I don't know any black or Hispanics who approve of Trump.  Not one.

It is crazy that his approval rating is going up amongst blacks.  I don't get what they see in him. 

brianlux

mcgruff10 said:

brianlux said:

Jesus Christ, how much are they paying these people to say these things?  I don't know any black or Hispanics who approve of Trump.  Not one.

It is crazy that his approval rating is going up amongst blacks.  I don't get what they see in him. 

Well, lets face it, there are stupid people of all sorts.  I suppose some people might be afraid to say there are dumb blacks or Hispanics or Indians, but it's not racist to say there are.  Dumb people come in all colors, shapes and sizes!  And I would say that people of color who support a racists are particularly stupid. I know it sounds bad for me to say that but that's how I see it.

Could it be that there is a correlation with this and how some abused women stay with the men who beat them?  Sad, isn't it?

But on the flip side, most people of color don't support Trump.  The majority of Americans don't support Trump.  At his highest level of approval he is still the worst president this country has ever had.  I would say that is far more telling than any other statistic that is getting put out there.

unsung

http://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2018/08/15/national/black-pastor-on-trump-he-s-most-pro-black-president-in-our-lifetime/

Many people in the community are seeing how Dems pander and how Dems create policies that force the community into situations that create negative influences. 

Oh, has anyone seen my hot sauce?

Halifax2TheMax

brianlux said:

Jesus Christ, how much are they paying these people to say these things?  I don't know any black or Hispanics who approve of Trump.  Not one.

See? Team Trump Treason has zero approval  from minorities.

mrussel1

unsung said:

http://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2018/08/15/national/black-pastor-on-trump-he-s-most-pro-black-president-in-our-lifetime/

Many people in the community are seeing how Dems pander and how Dems create policies that force the community into situations that create negative influences. 

Oh, has anyone seen my hot sauce?

First, Black pastors have historically been more inclined to the conservative party because of the social issues.  This isn't news.  Nor is it gospel (pun intended) just because a pastor in NC declares that he is the most pro-black president.  
Second, the 1 to 2 points that Chris Cilliza points out as "significant' on that CNN article is dubious as well.  He is reading multiple polls, with multiple methodologies and MOE's, and aggregating them to come up with a conclusion that Trump's support has moved a few points.  At least that's how I read his 'analysis'.  It's mathematically wrong in so many ways.  Now I'm not saying that Trump's support is really 9% and not 11%.. it could have been 11% all along for all we know, since this is in the MOE.  I'm saying that Trump/Breitbart declaration is woefully inaccurate and that his support always has been and likely continues to be south of 15%.  

brianlux

unsung said:

http://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2018/08/15/national/black-pastor-on-trump-he-s-most-pro-black-president-in-our-lifetime/

Many people in the community are seeing how Dems pander and how Dems create policies that force the community into situations that create negative influences. 

Oh, has anyone seen my hot sauce?

From the article:  "Black pastor on Trump: He’s ‘most pro-black president in our lifetime’"

Trump is more pro black than Clinton was and definitely more pro black than Obama.  I mean, hey, how could anyone argue that, right?

Meltdown99

Didn't Trump say he was the least racist person he knows ... LMFAO ... Trump should make people realize, you need a way to remove this imbecile, that doesn't rely on a crooked republican party to get him out...now that I said that, he'll slap tariffs on me.

unsung

brianlux said:

unsung said:

http://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2018/08/15/national/black-pastor-on-trump-he-s-most-pro-black-president-in-our-lifetime/

Many people in the community are seeing how Dems pander and how Dems create policies that force the community into situations that create negative influences. 

Oh, has anyone seen my hot sauce?

From the article:  "Black pastor on Trump: He’s ‘most pro-black president in our lifetime’"

Trump is more pro black than Clinton was and definitely more pro black than Obama.  I mean, hey, how could anyone argue that, right?

Well you said you hadn't heard of any black people that support him and when presented with an example you try to marginalize it.  Ok.

brianlux

unsung said:

brianlux said:

unsung said:

http://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2018/08/15/national/black-pastor-on-trump-he-s-most-pro-black-president-in-our-lifetime/

Many people in the community are seeing how Dems pander and how Dems create policies that force the community into situations that create negative influences. 

Oh, has anyone seen my hot sauce?

From the article:  "Black pastor on Trump: He’s ‘most pro-black president in our lifetime’"

Trump is more pro black than Clinton was and definitely more pro black than Obama.  I mean, hey, how could anyone argue that, right?

Well you said you hadn't heard of any black people that support him and when presented with an example you try to marginalize it.  Ok.

Okey dokey.

JC29856

mrussel1 said:

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

flywallyfly said:

If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year). 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15

Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll.  I read the link, don't see it.  It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis.  It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls.  How many did the pollsters talk to?  It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly.  Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details.  Help a brother out.  

All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?

My question wasn't about method,  it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll,  and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample. 

Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?

mrussel1

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

flywallyfly said:

If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year). 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15

Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll.  I read the link, don't see it.  It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis.  It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls.  How many did the pollsters talk to?  It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly.  Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details.  Help a brother out.  

All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?

My question wasn't about method,  it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll,  and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample. 

Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?

No, the national polls were generally dead on.  They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry.  With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people.  That's quite small.  And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size.  Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled.  It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge.  It was not in their summary.  It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals.  But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled.  Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.  

JC29856

mrussel1 said:

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

JC29856 said:

mrussel1 said:

flywallyfly said:

If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year). 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15

Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll.  I read the link, don't see it.  It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis.  It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls.  How many did the pollsters talk to?  It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly.  Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details.  Help a brother out.  

All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?

My question wasn't about method,  it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll,  and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample. 

Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?

No, the national polls were generally dead on.  They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry.  With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people.  That's quite small.  And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size.  Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled.  It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge.  It was not in their summary.  It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals.  But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled.  Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.  

Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?