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Black voter support for Trump

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    benjsbenjs Toronto, ON Posts: 8,937
    mrussel1 said:
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    Who the fuck cares if you trust exit polling.  If you don't, then wait an hour when the final returns are in.  My God, you can't possibly be this dense.  
    He's not, he's just a typical anarchist who gets a kick out of angering people while pretending not to get it. 
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
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    JC29856JC29856 Posts: 9,617
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    To reiterate:

    mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.

    This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump. 

    I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.
    Getting back to the topic at hand, what if, AA support for Trump has increased, (I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now support Trump?
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    blackhawksblackhawks Posts: 307
    I don’t think you are getting anywhere when many don’t believe the poll.  It is like the unemployment being the lowest for AA under Trump.  But the numbers show it declining the last couple years under Obama...trending downward.  Trump reaped the benefit there.
    91 - Ames Iowa CY Stephens Auditorium
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    benjsbenjs Toronto, ON Posts: 8,937
    edited August 2018
    JC29856 said:
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    To reiterate:

    mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.

    This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump. 

    I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.
    Getting back to the topic at hand, what if, AA support for Trump has increased, (I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now support Trump?
    First you fight us as we patiently explain why the poll making conclusions about AAs is invalid for conclusions about AAs. Then, you tell us you won't explain why you feel there's a trend (i.e. won't source evidence). Then, you ask us to explain the trend that you won't tell us how you identified (meanwhile no one else has identified said trend other than your cryptic message, so you've given us  zero to work with).

    What if, AA enjoyment of jelly beans has increased (and I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now enjoy jelly beans?
    Post edited by benjs on
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
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    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    To reiterate:

    mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.

    This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump. 

    I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.
    Getting back to the topic at hand, what if, AA support for Trump has increased, (I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now support Trump?
    First you fight us as we patiently explain why the poll making conclusions about AAs is invalid for conclusions about AAs. Then, you tell us you won't explain why you feel there's a trend (i.e. won't source evidence). Then, you ask us to explain the trend that you won't tell us how you identified (meanwhile no one else has identified said trend other than your cryptic message, so you've given us  zero to work with).

    What if, AA enjoyment of jelly beans has increased (and I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now enjoy jelly beans?
    Right, let's spend some time talking about a hypothetical sourced from his gut.  Awesome, sounds like real winner.  
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    JC29856JC29856 Posts: 9,617
    I don’t think you are getting anywhere when many don’t believe the poll.  It is like the unemployment being the lowest for AA under Trump.  But the numbers show it declining the last couple years under Obama...trending downward.  Trump reaped the benefit there.
    Correct, the point is since most polls are conducted in the same manner, specifically dealing with segments of the population, ie: women, millennials, AA, etc etc, one can believe the Rasmussen poll as much or as little as any other poll taken. Every administration since the birth of this great nation uses poll numbers to prop their policies and presidency up.
    One good thing (amongst many others) from the 2016 election and the Trump presidency is the citizenry are finally taking the time to educate themselves about polls and polling. People are finally looking behind the numbers. 

    I'm not sure what happened above, could be the lingering effects of the Russian pj forum hack.

  • Options
    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    JC29856 said:
    I don’t think you are getting anywhere when many don’t believe the poll.  It is like the unemployment being the lowest for AA under Trump.  But the numbers show it declining the last couple years under Obama...trending downward.  Trump reaped the benefit there.
    Correct, the point is since most polls are conducted in the same manner, specifically dealing with segments of the population, ie: women, millennials, AA, etc etc, one can believe the Rasmussen poll as much or as little as any other poll taken. Every administration since the birth of this great nation uses poll numbers to prop their policies and presidency up.
    One good thing (amongst many others) from the 2016 election and the Trump presidency is the citizenry are finally taking the time to educate themselves about polls and polling. People are finally looking behind the numbers. 

    I'm not sure what happened above, could be the lingering effects of the Russian pj forum hack.

    People,  excluding you?
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    josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 28,286
    How about i just go by what the AA i work with think of the baffoon out of 50 not one has told they are happy and think hi's doing a great job not one they all believe his a racist that could care less about their race .....
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
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    brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,696
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?
    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













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    josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 28,286
    brianlux said:
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?
    lol I hear you 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
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    BentleyspopBentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 10,540
    brianlux said:
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?
    Aryans Anonymous
    Keep up Brian
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    mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,628
    brianlux said:
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?
    Aryans Anonymous
    Keep up Brian
    Awesome 
  • Options
    OffSheGoes35OffSheGoes35 Posts: 3,487
    mrussel1 said:
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    benjs said:
    JC29856 said:
    Have these simple questions been answered yet?
    Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?

    I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.

    At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.


    To reiterate:

    mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.

    This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump. 

    I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.
    Getting back to the topic at hand, what if, AA support for Trump has increased, (I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now support Trump?
    First you fight us as we patiently explain why the poll making conclusions about AAs is invalid for conclusions about AAs. Then, you tell us you won't explain why you feel there's a trend (i.e. won't source evidence). Then, you ask us to explain the trend that you won't tell us how you identified (meanwhile no one else has identified said trend other than your cryptic message, so you've given us  zero to work with).

    What if, AA enjoyment of jelly beans has increased (and I'm inclined to think it has without getting into the degree or the reasons why) what does it say about those AAs that now enjoy jelly beans?
    Right, let's spend some time talking about a hypothetical sourced from his gut.  Awesome, sounds like real winner.  
    I believe deep down in my gut that this trend has to do with Jelly Belly jelly beans being more readily available. They used to be a rare find, but now our cup runneth over and we have a variety of flavors to choose from...screw old-school jelly beans, right AAs?
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    Meltdown99Meltdown99 None Of Your Business... Posts: 10,739
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Give Peas A Chance…
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    PJ_SoulPJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 49,524
    edited August 2018
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Maybe 9% - 12% of the black population are just huge assholes, lol.

    But seriously, yeah, maybe you're right. Perhaps that is how much of that demographic who actually have a horse in the race business/money wise. That percentage is a believable number for that to be true.... And that means they are indeed all assholes. I can't imagine choosing money in such a situation. Where are their souls?
    .... Which can also be said of every other Trump supporter.
    Post edited by PJ_Soul on
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
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    oftenreadingoftenreading Victoria, BC Posts: 12,824
    PJ_Soul said:
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Maybe 9% - 12% of the black population are just huge assholes, lol.

    But seriously, yeah, maybe you're right. Perhaps that how much of that demographic who actually has a horse in the race business/money wise. That percentage is a believable number for that to be true.... And that means they are indeed all assholes. I can't imagine choosing money in such a situation. Where is their soul?
    .... Which can also be said of every other Trump supporter.
    Case in point - Kanye. 
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
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    PJ_SoulPJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 49,524
    PJ_Soul said:
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Maybe 9% - 12% of the black population are just huge assholes, lol.

    But seriously, yeah, maybe you're right. Perhaps that how much of that demographic who actually has a horse in the race business/money wise. That percentage is a believable number for that to be true.... And that means they are indeed all assholes. I can't imagine choosing money in such a situation. Where is their soul?
    .... Which can also be said of every other Trump supporter.
    Case in point - Kanye. 
    Right (and jesus H christ re my grammar in that post, lol. I must have had a mini stroke while I was typing, lol)
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
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    brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,696
    PJ_Soul said:
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Maybe 9% - 12% of the black population are just huge assholes, lol.

    But seriously, yeah, maybe you're right. Perhaps that is how much of that demographic who actually have a horse in the race business/money wise. That percentage is a believable number for that to be true.... And that means they are indeed all assholes. I can't imagine choosing money in such a situation. Where are their souls?
    .... Which can also be said of every other Trump supporter.
    OK, now I get the whole "AA" thing.  Assholes Anonymous.  Got  it!  :lol:
    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













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    Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,586
    brianlux said:
    PJ_Soul said:
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    Considering it's pretty obvious Trump is a racist ... it does make you wonder what's the matter with the 9%-12% that support him...must be wealthy people.
    Maybe 9% - 12% of the black population are just huge assholes, lol.

    But seriously, yeah, maybe you're right. Perhaps that is how much of that demographic who actually have a horse in the race business/money wise. That percentage is a believable number for that to be true.... And that means they are indeed all assholes. I can't imagine choosing money in such a situation. Where are their souls?
    .... Which can also be said of every other Trump supporter.
    OK, now I get the whole "AA" thing.  Assholes Anonymous.  Got  it!  :lol:
    “Hello, my name is Halifax, and I’m an.............” in unison. “Hello Halifax.”
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    Hi

    ...

    chinese-happy.jpg
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    Hi

    ...


    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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    mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,724
    brianlux said:
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?
    Aryans Anonymous
    Keep up Brian
    not so anonymous anymore......
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
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    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
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    Meltdown99Meltdown99 None Of Your Business... Posts: 10,739
    brianlux said:
    I'm lost.  What does Alcoholics Anonymous have to do with black support of Trump?

    LOL
    Give Peas A Chance…
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    JC29856JC29856 Posts: 9,617
    brianlux said:
    I really don't know what all the noise is about.  If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%.  I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
    3D, D’ing yo! No worries but don’t ever take a bet. He don’t pay up, yo! Because when the banks empty, the tank is empty too, yo!
    #nowayjose
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    Does the OP actually believe that 36% of African Americans actually support this president when only 8% voted for him less than 2 years ago? Talk about Crazy Town....
    chinese-happy.jpg
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    my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,117
    Must not know any black people 
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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-propaganda-veterans-push-candace-owens-blexit-campaign?source=TDB&via=FB_Page

    “40,000, or 16 percent, of the Blexit tweets we collected came from accounts that previously pushed Kremlin propaganda.
    chinese-happy.jpg
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    WobbieWobbie Posts: 29,456
    I’m not even reading all this shit.

    ”yeah, the brothers love trump” :lol:
    If I had known then what I know now...

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    brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,696
    Wobbie said:
    I’m not even reading all this shit.

    ”yeah, the brothers love trump” :lol:

    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













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    The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,261
    edited November 2018
    9%.

    Time to close this thread. Thank you.
    chinese-happy.jpg
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