Black voter support for Trump
Comments
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You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
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aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
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Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
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I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.0 -
Sure. Sure you are. Mail the poster.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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Good night...good luck!0
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Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false. Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups. There's nothing wrong with their methods, although I think they have always oversampled Republicans, that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans. But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.
I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense.0 -
Surprised?mrussel1 said:
Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false. Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups. There's nothing wrong with their methods, although I think they have always oversampled Republicans, that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans. But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.
I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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I really don't know what all the noise is about. If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%. I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
3D, D’ing yo! No worries but don’t ever take a bet. He don’t pay up, yo! Because when the banks empty, the tank is empty too, yo!brianlux said:I really don't know what all the noise is about. If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%. I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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I hear ya! Seems like it's all guessoline in some tank these days.Halifax2TheMax said:
3D, D’ing yo! No worries but don’t ever take a bet. He don’t pay up, yo! Because when the banks empty, the tank is empty too, yo!brianlux said:I really don't know what all the noise is about. If you look at more than one poll, Trump's approval rating with blacks is somewhere between 9% and 12%. I'm not sure in which universe that is considered "doing well", but I'm pretty sure it not the one most of us live in.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Is it me? Am I being unclear? I'm not hyping one poll over another here.Halifax2TheMax said:
Surprised?mrussel1 said:
Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false. Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups. There's nothing wrong with their methods, although I think they have always oversampled Republicans, that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans. But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.
I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense.0 -
It’s definitely not you. You ever make an offer and not pay up?mrussel1 said:
Is it me? Am I being unclear? I'm not hyping one poll over another here.Halifax2TheMax said:
Surprised?mrussel1 said:
Are you that obtuse? The questions aren't relevant to why the conclusion being trumpeted is false. Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that is designed to trace the OVERALL approval rating of the president, not that of subgroups. There's nothing wrong with their methods, although I think they have always oversampled Republicans, that's why they are always look favorable to Republicans. But you can't draw conclusions from the crosstabs, and that's likely what the president's team did.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.
I'm trying to help you understand but you're being dense.
09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
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I think that as usual, whether intentionally or not (my vote is for the former - you seem to care not about anything but introducing skepticism), you have completely misunderstood mrussel.JC29856 said:
I thought they were simple questions, I even numbered them for you.mrussel1 said:
Too many words for you to digest?JC29856 said:
aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
You're missing the point. The poll is not designed to capture a statistically significant sample of AAs. The poll is attempting to reflect the population. That's why it's weighted for Democrats, Republicans, women, AAs, etc. But you can't read each of those subgroups and draw conclusions from them. For a poll to measure AA support of trump, it would have to be a stand alone poll of 500 to 1000 with its own subs. Like I said earlier, because AAs make up 10%, they may have talked to as few as 50 people. And if the rate of voting is lower than the population as a whole, the number would be even smaller. Therefore you cannot draw conclusions from these numbers. This is basic statistics. And again, likely why Rasmussen hadn't said a word to my knowledge.JC29856 said:
Okay let's forget 2016, I didn't mean to bring up a sore subject or distract from the point...aren't all polls conducted within 1. 48 hours and 2. Sampling 500-1000 participants?mrussel1 said:
No, the national polls were generally dead on. They were certainly within the margin of error. It's when they went to the state sample did they go awry. With Rasmussen, they are talking to 500 people. That's quite small. And they aren't talking to 500 African Americans, rather they probably try to get a subset similar to the population size. Since blacks compromise 10% of the population, it's possible that only 50 people were polled. It's instructive that Rasmussen themselves did not even publicize this to my knowledge. It was not in their summary. It was the White House or Breitbart that picked it up, likely while picking through the internals. But you need to be a platinum member to see how many blacks were sampled. Shockingly that wasn't blasted from the Twitter handle.JC29856 said:
Understood but then aren't all polls then considered short term? If so then all polls can be considered short term anomalies. Haven't we learned anything from Nov 2016?mrussel1 said:
My question wasn't about method, it was about whether this was a short term anomaly. Remember it's a three day tracking poll, and we don't know the statistical size of the black sample.JC29856 said:
All good questions, here's another: Did Rasmussen use the same methodology in conducting this latest poll as they did a year ago when the number was 19%?mrussel1 said:
Hey I'm just curious about where in that link does it say that black approval rating is at 36% on the daily tracking poll. I read the link, don't see it. It's important because Rasmussen only surveys 500 people a day, on a rolling three day basis. It's important to understand the MOE specific to blacks in the polls. How many did the pollsters talk to? It could have been very low and therefore a statistical anomaly. Since you are posting this, I'm sure you read through the details. Help a brother out.flywallyfly said:If Trump is so racist then why are black voter number in support of Trump continuing to go up? Weird. Approval rate for Trump among black voters is up to 36% (from 19% on this day last year).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug15
Your president thinks you're stupid and lies to you everyday. This is just another example.
I cannot take this discussion any further until those are answered.
Is it not prudent to compare rasmussan to other more legitimate or generally accepted polls?
I'm trying to discern which polls I should trust and which I should write off as propaganda.
His comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs.
You don't need to know fuck-all about any other poll to write this conclusion from Rasmussen off.'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10 -
And to put a finer point on it, Rasmussen never even drew the conclusion. It seems obvious to me that someone in the white house read the cross tabs and drew their own conclusions.0
-
OP got owned on this one, lol. I can't believe anyone would actually believe those false poll numbers, no matter where they saw them or how some jerk fluffed the poll. That poll result just seemed immediately and completely unbelievable/ridiculous to me. I mean seriously, I've got a bridge to sell to anyone who would buy that Trump has that much support from Black America.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata0 -
All I know is that bridge sales must be up since '17.PJ_Soul said:OP got owned on this one, lol. I can't believe anyone would actually believe those false poll numbers, no matter where they saw them or how some jerk fluffed the poll. That poll result just seemed immediately and completely unbelievable/ridiculous to me. I mean seriously, I've got a bridge to sell to anyone who would buy that Trump has that much support from Black America.'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10 -
Have these simple questions been answered yet?
Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?
I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.
At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.
0 -
To reiterate:JC29856 said:Have these simple questions been answered yet?
Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?
I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.
At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.
mrussel's comment was about how a small sample size introduces error rate, how the poll's purpose is on general population (not subset) conclusions, how no insight is given to the percentage of AA within the sampling, and yet a conclusion is provided about AAs. mrussel did not aspire to compare Rasmussen to any other poll (that was purely you), he simply established that Rasmussen's process is improper.
This thread had a very clear premise: based on Rasmussen's poll, black voters are favouring Trump. Since Rasmussen's poll's general population conclusions shouldn't be applied to black voters since they won't fit to a statistically significant degree, black voters can't be concluded to be favouring Trump.
I don't really care if you trust exit polling - like everything you've posted on here, it has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand.'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10 -
Who the fuck cares if you trust exit polling. If you don't, then wait an hour when the final returns are in. My God, you can't possibly be this dense.JC29856 said:Have these simple questions been answered yet?
Aren't all polls conducted within 48 hours? Don't most polls sample 500-1000 participants?
I'm trying to figure out how Rasmussen polls are different (anomalies) compared to other polls.
At this point it doesn't matter, the real question is, do I trust exit polling? All this meaningless blabber can and will be answered in 27 months via exit polling. That's assuming of course we can trust exits.0
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