man, that Missoula GA is awful tempting vs. the Chicago GA odds, smaller venue, about $500 round trip ticket, I might have to change.
if the demand for Missoula doesn't take up all the tickets, then the TM and public sale will get a shot at GA?
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
If someone has come up with a similar idea let me know. Since I am a 'technical guy', I have been reflecting a lot about the concerns and challenges that many 10 Club members have been raising about 'transferring tickets' or possibly getting too many tickets. Since I am trying to go to Fenway shows, my options are more straight forward than others, but here are some thoughts that I have (I will admit I probably do not have every angle covered).
I realize that this isn't as easy to develop/modify the software application, but conceptually, here are the 'business rules' or logic that I have been thinking about:
We know that based on the drawing rules, the Ticket Master system can track and transfer tickets. We also know that the system knows who are active 10 Club members who are able to participate in the drawing.
Current Rule: Keep current 'transfer rule the same'. If I go, I can transfer ticket once to someone else.
Transfer in Kind: If an active 10 Club member wants to transfer tickets at no charge to another active 10 Club Member they can and no money is transacted. Example, if I ended up with two sets tickets to Fenway (each night of show) and another ended up with two sets of tickets (both nights) to Wrigley they could transfer tickets in kind.The 10 Club members who receive the new tickets can transfer one ticket, once to another person.
Monetary Transfer: If an active Ten Club member has tickets to a show and another active 10 Club Member wants to purchase, they can. The system will only permit 'face value' transactions (tickets cannot be surcharged) and once transferred the 10 Club recipient can transfer one of the tickets, once to one other person.
Through the use of API (Application Programming Interface) the TM system should be able to see real-time that both parties to the transaction, and also manage/limit the number of transfers based on the agreed business rules.
Again, I know that this isn't perfect, and doesn't address every scenario, but I wonder if an approach like this may it a little easier for members to plan, and manage their ticket purchases and shows they would like to attend.
Thanks, and look forward to your thoughts.
Dan
2016.08.07 - Boston, MA Fenway Park 2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden 2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival 2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena 2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
If someone has come up with a similar idea let me know. Since I am a 'technical guy', I have been reflecting a lot about the concerns and challenges that many 10 Club members have been raising about 'transferring tickets' or possibly getting too many tickets. Since I am trying to go to Fenway shows, my options are more straight forward than others, but here are some thoughts that I have (I will admit I probably do not have every angle covered).
I realize that this isn't as easy to develop/modify the software application, but conceptually, here are the 'business rules' or logic that I have been thinking about:
We know that based on the drawing rules, the Ticket Master system can track and transfer tickets. We also know that the system knows who are active 10 Club members who are able to participate in the drawing.
Current Rule: Keep current 'transfer rule the same'. If I go, I can transfer ticket once to someone else.
Transfer in Kind: If an active 10 Club member wants to transfer tickets at no charge to another active 10 Club Member they can and no money is transacted. Example, if I ended up with two sets tickets to Fenway (each night of show) and another ended up with two sets of tickets (both nights) to Wrigley they could transfer tickets in kind.The 10 Club members who receive the new tickets can transfer one ticket, once to another person.
Monetary Transfer: If an active Ten Club member has tickets to a show and another active 10 Club Member wants to purchase, they can. The system will only permit 'face value' transactions (tickets cannot be surcharged) and once transferred the 10 Club recipient can transfer one of the tickets, once to one other person.
Through the use of API (Application Programming Interface) the TM system should be able to see real-time that both parties to the transaction, and also manage/limit the number of transfers based on the agreed business rules.
Again, I know that this isn't perfect, and doesn't address every scenario, but I wonder if an approach like this may it a little easier for members to plan, and manage their ticket purchases and shows they would like to attend.
Thanks, and look forward to your thoughts.
Dan
I think the new system is an attempt to prevent people from buying too many tickets. If it were the old system I'd choose SeattleGA2, Seattle Reserved2, Seattle Reserved1, and then have my wife go SeattleGA1, Seattle Reserved 1. There's huge potential for me to end up with two pairs, and due to the difficulty in selling them this time around, I'm not really willing to eat $260 USD on the 2nd pair.
By allowing tickets to be transferable, you're allowing people to game the ticketing. The person the tickets are sold/traded too might have already gotten a pair using their own 10c membership, and buy using multiple memberships, was able to acquire another pair without having qualified for it during the draw. Some poor schlum might have lost out in the lotto, but this other person got multiple pairs kind of thing.
Other than not having a hard copy ticket, I think the new system is mostly fair. It makes it expensive and difficult to coordinate multiple memberships like it did in the past. I think the band wants you to use the 10c tickets you u
If someone has come up with a similar idea let me know. Since I am a 'technical guy', I have been reflecting a lot about the concerns and challenges that many 10 Club members have been raising about 'transferring tickets' or possibly getting too many tickets. Since I am trying to go to Fenway shows, my options are more straight forward than others, but here are some thoughts that I have (I will admit I probably do not have every angle covered).
I realize that this isn't as easy to develop/modify the software application, but conceptually, here are the 'business rules' or logic that I have been thinking about:
We know that based on the drawing rules, the Ticket Master system can track and transfer tickets. We also know that the system knows who are active 10 Club members who are able to participate in the drawing.
Current Rule: Keep current 'transfer rule the same'. If I go, I can transfer ticket once to someone else.
Transfer in Kind: If an active 10 Club member wants to transfer tickets at no charge to another active 10 Club Member they can and no money is transacted. Example, if I ended up with two sets tickets to Fenway (each night of show) and another ended up with two sets of tickets (both nights) to Wrigley they could transfer tickets in kind.The 10 Club members who receive the new tickets can transfer one ticket, once to another person.
Monetary Transfer: If an active Ten Club member has tickets to a show and another active 10 Club Member wants to purchase, they can. The system will only permit 'face value' transactions (tickets cannot be surcharged) and once transferred the 10 Club recipient can transfer one of the tickets, once to one other person.
Through the use of API (Application Programming Interface) the TM system should be able to see real-time that both parties to the transaction, and also manage/limit the number of transfers based on the agreed business rules.
Again, I know that this isn't perfect, and doesn't address every scenario, but I wonder if an approach like this may it a little easier for members to plan, and manage their ticket purchases and shows they would like to attend.
Thanks, and look forward to your thoughts.
Dan
I think the new system is an attempt to prevent people from buying too many tickets. If it were the old system I'd choose SeattleGA2, Seattle Reserved2, Seattle Reserved1, and then have my wife go SeattleGA1, Seattle Reserved 1. There's huge potential for me to end up with two pairs, and due to the difficulty in selling them this time around, I'm not really willing to eat $260 USD on the 2nd pair.
By allowing tickets to be transferable, you're allowing people to game the ticketing. The person the tickets are sold/traded too might have already gotten a pair using their own 10c membership, and buy using multiple memberships, was able to acquire another pair without having qualified for it during the draw. Some poor schlum might have lost out in the lotto, but this other person got multiple pairs kind of thing.
Other than not having a hard copy ticket, I think the new system is mostly fair. It makes it expensive and difficult to coordinate multiple memberships like it did in the past. I think the band wants you to use the 10c tickets you u
All great points. I did think about ‘gaming system. Where I left off is at two places. If someone tried to game system they still possibly could get ‘stuck’ with tickets they don’t want, plus then need to trade, exchange them. If this concept of more transferability options was attractive to members,I also would consider changing lottery algorithm to take into account the many of the ‘variables’ you mention and weight them to try and achieve the most equitable distribution across shows to try and prevent many of the concerns you raised.
Thanks for your feedback and again I’m fine too with new approach. I just had some thoughts I wanted to bounce off others.
2016.08.07 - Boston, MA Fenway Park 2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden 2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival 2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena 2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
If I recall in the pre-lottery days wasn't there a case of people "gaming the system" by buying 10C tix they had no intention of using and transferring them to friends in other parts of the country so those folks could take advantage of seniority seating. This was why 10 club put in the no transfer rule.
If I recall in the pre-lottery days wasn't there a case of people "gaming the system" by buying 10C tix they had no intention of using and transferring them to friends in other parts of the country so those folks could take advantage of seniority seating. This was why 10 club put in the no transfer rule.
Thanks... I am a relatively newer member, and didn’t know this.
2016.08.07 - Boston, MA Fenway Park 2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden 2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival 2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena 2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
Why are tickets soooo expensive this time around? I remember Wrigley '16 being $180 for the pair. $65 markup just two years later? Crazy! Was hoping to take the kids to one of the shows but damn that is pricey!
* St. Louis, MO - 02 July 1998 * Chicago, IL - 09 Oct 2000 * St. Louis, MO - 11 Oct 2000
* Champaign, IL - 23 April 2003 * Las Vegas, NV - 06 June 2003 * Kansas City, KS - 12 June 2003
* Chicago, IL - 18 June 2003 * St. Louis, MO - 05 Oct 2004 * Chicago, IL - 16 May 2006
* Milwaukee, WI - 29 June 2006 * Chicago, IL - 05 Aug 2007 * Chicago, IL - 24 Aug 2008
* Nashville, TN - 17 June 2009 * Nashville, TN - 18 June 2009 * Chicago, IL - 23 Aug 2009
* St. Louis, MO - 04 May 2010 * Chicago, IL - 28 June 2011 * St. Louis, MO - 01 July 2011
* East Troy, WI - 03 Sept 2011 * East Troy, WI - 04 Sept 2011 * Chicago, IL - 19 July 2013 * Chicago, IL - 09 July 2015 * Chicago, IL 20 Aug 2016 * Chicago, IL - 18 Aug 2018 * Chicago, IL - 20 Aug 2018 * 2020 NO LUCK! :(
It's the best value in Rock for high seniority tickets. Not sure why fans with lower numbers question that. To be fairer, TC membership cost should go way up because of all the multiple accounts.
IMO gaming will continue as winners will flip their +1 to cover the cost of extra pairs
I just changed my priority to Wrigley 1 Res,Wrigley 2 Res from GA. Just want to make sure I get tickets, would love to be in GA but not enough to jeopardize me getting in the building. Waited too long to see them live.
If I recall in the pre-lottery days wasn't there a case of people "gaming the system" by buying 10C tix they had no intention of using and transferring them to friends in other parts of the country so those folks could take advantage of seniority seating. This was why 10 club put in the no transfer rule.
Yah 10c used to let you transfer tickets to another 10c member, but I think it got abused, and 10c discontinued it.
It's the problem with making tickets transferable. The easier it to transfer tickets, the easier it is to abuse it, hence the less you allow tickets to be more transferable, the harder it is to abuse it.
I would like to go to just one of the two Fenway shows, preferably Fenway 2. I have a low membership number. I picked Fenway 2 as my only ticket selection. While I don't want to miss the tour, I am torn about picking Fenway 1 as my 2nd choice (and backup) because I would prefer to avoid spending over $500 (if I get tickets to both shows) since I only want one show... I wish their ticketing software had an algorithm to allow for this option.
04-11-94. The Boston Gahden. Boston, MA 10-02-96. The Meadows. Hartford, CT 08-29-00. Tweeter Center. Mansfield, MA 07-02-03. Tweeter Center. Mansfield, MA 03-27-11. Tres Mts (with Jeff and Mike). Paradise Rock Club. Boston, MA 06-16-11. EV solo tour. The Wang Theater. Boston, MA 09-03-11. Alpine Valley. PJ20. East Troy, WI 09-04-11. Alpine Valley. PJ20. East Troy, WI 09-04-18. Fenway Park. Boston, MA
I would like to go to just one of the two Fenway shows, preferably Fenway 2. I have a low membership number. I picked Fenway 2 as my only ticket selection. While I don't want to miss the tour, I am torn about picking Fenway 1 as my 2nd choice (and backup) because I would prefer to avoid spending over $500 (if I get tickets to both shows) since I only want one show... I wish their ticketing software had an algorithm to allow for this option.
You will win Fenway 2 though no problem come Monday. You have nothing to worry about and should not put down for the 1st night at all as back up.
I would like to go to just one of the two Fenway shows, preferably Fenway 2. I have a low membership number. I picked Fenway 2 as my only ticket selection. While I don't want to miss the tour, I am torn about picking Fenway 1 as my 2nd choice (and backup) because I would prefer to avoid spending over $500 (if I get tickets to both shows) since I only want one show... I wish their ticketing software had an algorithm to allow for this option.
You will win Fenway 2 though no problem come Monday. You have nothing to worry about and should not put down for the 1st night at all as back up.
Actually I have similar dilemma. I want to go on 9/2 and haven’t listed 9/4 as option yet. I’m thinking of putting in for both and if selected for both take son one night and buddy the other. It’s the possible $500 + price tag that is holding me back now. Good luck- I hope that you get the tickets that you want.
2016.08.07 - Boston, MA Fenway Park 2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden 2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival 2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena 2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
Highest Percentages I’ve seen so close to the cut off
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
So how low does the percentage need it drop before a 2nd choice is not certain?
I really wish they had personalized odds for the choice of your picks.
Theoretically it could drop down to 98% and you not get in with a second pick (or first pick for that matter). In reality with 12 choices to go with this tour for selections it is hard to figure out who has what where. Anything can happen really.
1st Seattle 2 GA 2nd Seattle 1 GA 3rd Seattle 2 Res 4th Seattle 2 Res
I don't want to think, I wanna feel....
2.5.95 Seattle 9.16.96 Seattle 7.18.98 Portland 7.21.98 Seattle 7.22.98 Seattle 10.30.99 Mountain View, CA 10.31.99 Mountain View, CA 5.10.00 Bellingham, WA 11.2.00 Portland, WA 11.3.00 Boise, ID 11.5.00 Seattle, WA 11.6.00 Seattle, WA 10.22.21 Seattle, WA 9.1.05 George, WA 7.6.06 Las Vegas, NV 7.22.06 George, WA 7.23.06 George, WA 6.28.08 Mansfield, MA 9.21.09 Seattle, WA 9.22.09 Seattle, WA 11.29.13 Portland, OR 12.6.13 Seattle, WA 8.8.18 Seattle, WA 8.10.18 Seattle,WA
1st - Wrigley 2 GA 2nd - Wrigley 1 GA 3rd - Wrigley 1 rs 4th - Wrigley 2 rs
Thoughts?
Like everybody else says, put GA 1 first, and I have a hard time believing that you won't get tickets to both nights.
Doesn't matter if Wrigley reserved odds drop to 75%. I still believe that you'd get it with your third pick. Remember, some people are trying for tickets to multiple cities. That and the GA drawing should help with reserved if you get shut out on picks 1 and 2.
Comments
I predict many are waiting as long as possible.
if the demand for Missoula doesn't take up all the tickets, then the TM and public sale will get a shot at GA?
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
If someone has come up with a similar idea let me know. Since I am a 'technical guy', I have been reflecting a lot about the concerns and challenges that many 10 Club members have been raising about 'transferring tickets' or possibly getting too many tickets. Since I am trying to go to Fenway shows, my options are more straight forward than others, but here are some thoughts that I have (I will admit I probably do not have every angle covered).
I realize that this isn't as easy to develop/modify the software application, but conceptually, here are the 'business rules' or logic that I have been thinking about:
- Monetary Transfer: If an active Ten Club member has tickets to a show and another active 10 Club Member wants to purchase, they can. The system will only permit 'face value' transactions (tickets cannot be surcharged) and once transferred the 10 Club recipient can transfer one of the tickets, once to one other person.
Through the use of API (Application Programming Interface) the TM system should be able to see real-time that both parties to the transaction, and also manage/limit the number of transfers based on the agreed business rules.Again, I know that this isn't perfect, and doesn't address every scenario, but I wonder if an approach like this may it a little easier for members to plan, and manage their ticket purchases and shows they would like to attend.
Thanks, and look forward to your thoughts.
Dan
2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden
2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival
2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena
2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
Both Seattle reserved holding strong at 99%. Do they have alot of fans there?
I think the new system is an attempt to prevent people from buying too many tickets. If it were the old system I'd choose SeattleGA2, Seattle Reserved2, Seattle Reserved1, and then have my wife go SeattleGA1, Seattle Reserved 1. There's huge potential for me to end up with two pairs, and due to the difficulty in selling them this time around, I'm not really willing to eat $260 USD on the 2nd pair.
By allowing tickets to be transferable, you're allowing people to game the ticketing. The person the tickets are sold/traded too might have already gotten a pair using their own 10c membership, and buy using multiple memberships, was able to acquire another pair without having qualified for it during the draw. Some poor schlum might have lost out in the lotto, but this other person got multiple pairs kind of thing.
Other than not having a hard copy ticket, I think the new system is mostly fair. It makes it expensive and difficult to coordinate multiple memberships like it did in the past. I think the band wants you to use the 10c tickets you u
Thanks for your feedback and again I’m fine too with new approach. I just had some thoughts I wanted to bounce off others.
2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden
2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival
2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena
2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden
2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival
2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena
2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
* Champaign, IL - 23 April 2003 * Las Vegas, NV - 06 June 2003 * Kansas City, KS - 12 June 2003
* Chicago, IL - 18 June 2003 * St. Louis, MO - 05 Oct 2004 * Chicago, IL - 16 May 2006
* Milwaukee, WI - 29 June 2006 * Chicago, IL - 05 Aug 2007 * Chicago, IL - 24 Aug 2008
* Nashville, TN - 17 June 2009 * Nashville, TN - 18 June 2009 * Chicago, IL - 23 Aug 2009
* St. Louis, MO - 04 May 2010 * Chicago, IL - 28 June 2011 * St. Louis, MO - 01 July 2011
* East Troy, WI - 03 Sept 2011 * East Troy, WI - 04 Sept 2011 * Chicago, IL - 19 July 2013
* Chicago, IL - 09 July 2015 * Chicago, IL 20 Aug 2016 * Chicago, IL - 18 Aug 2018
* Chicago, IL - 20 Aug 2018 * 2020 NO LUCK! :(
IMO gaming will continue as winners will flip their +1 to cover the cost of extra pairs
It's the problem with making tickets transferable. The easier it to transfer tickets, the easier it is to abuse it, hence the less you allow tickets to be more transferable, the harder it is to abuse it.
10-02-96. The Meadows. Hartford, CT
08-29-00. Tweeter Center. Mansfield, MA
07-02-03. Tweeter Center. Mansfield, MA
03-27-11. Tres Mts (with Jeff and Mike). Paradise Rock Club. Boston, MA
06-16-11. EV solo tour. The Wang Theater. Boston, MA
09-03-11. Alpine Valley. PJ20. East Troy, WI
09-04-11. Alpine Valley. PJ20. East Troy, WI
09-04-18. Fenway Park. Boston, MA
2016.05.02 - NYC, Madison Square Garden
2015.09.26 - NYC, Central Park, Global Citizen Festival
2014.10.17 - Detroit, MI, Joe Louis Arena
2010.05.17 - Boston, MA, TD Garden
I really wish they had personalized odds for the choice of your picks.
BOS N1
BOS N2
MIS GA
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
2nd - Wrigley 1 GA
3rd - Wrigley 1 rs
4th - Wrigley 2 rs
Thoughts?
2nd Seattle 1 GA
3rd Seattle 2 Res
4th Seattle 2 Res
2.5.95 Seattle
9.16.96 Seattle
7.18.98 Portland
7.21.98 Seattle
7.22.98 Seattle
10.30.99 Mountain View, CA
10.31.99 Mountain View, CA
5.10.00 Bellingham, WA
11.2.00 Portland, WA
11.3.00 Boise, ID
11.5.00 Seattle, WA
11.6.00 Seattle, WA
10.22.21 Seattle, WA
9.1.05 George, WA
7.6.06 Las Vegas, NV
7.22.06 George, WA
7.23.06 George, WA
6.28.08 Mansfield, MA
9.21.09 Seattle, WA
9.22.09 Seattle, WA
11.29.13 Portland, OR
12.6.13 Seattle, WA
8.8.18 Seattle, WA
8.10.18 Seattle,WA
Doesn't matter if Wrigley reserved odds drop to 75%. I still believe that you'd get it with your third pick. Remember, some people are trying for tickets to multiple cities. That and the GA drawing should help with reserved if you get shut out on picks 1 and 2.