***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

BinauralJam

You guys want Soriano as a setup man? Call Cashmen he'll give you a good price.

The Fixer

jamminpearls wrote:

Makes no sense at all imo. For once i agree completely with the fixer!!! I would have signed Madson the dude's gonna be real good for years. Plus Papplebons a fly ball pitcher and are porch isn't very deep.

I wouldn't have paid either one what they gave papelturd or were rumored to give madson. that said I would take madson and his deal over this douche and his deal 100 times out of 100.

Howard and Papelbon will make a combined 37.5 million next year :roll:

He might pitch well next year. May pitch well two years from now. Four years, with an option for a 5th year!!!, is way too long for any RP though. The chances of his performance justifying this deal are slim to none

The Fixer

Phils game on comcast at 7 tonight is probably my favorite regular season phils game of all time.

Pretty sure it was a thursday afternoon game.

The Fixer

Here is Keith Law's take...

thought signing Ryan Madson for four years and $44 million was a bad idea, even though he is the best free-agent reliever on the market, both short- and long-term. The history of signing relievers to deals of that length is simply too awful to ignore.



That contract would have been a bargain relative to the four-year deal the Phillies are about to give Jonathan Papelbon -- more money, plus a lost draft pick, for an inferior reliever who gives up more fly balls.



Papelbon was the second-best relief option on the market, but even in one of his best seasons in 2011, he was worth only two or three wins above replacement, and I'd put the over/under on his WAR for this deal at around eight, which would still make it a pretty bad contract. But the real issue with any reliever and with Papelbon specifically is high attrition rates -- relievers don't last, and their peaks tend to be short.

Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia. (His career-low home run rate in 2011 wasn't going to last, anyway.) And Papelbon has worked limited innings, never reaching 70 in a season, probably the Red Sox's response to his 2006 shoulder injury.



The Phillies, as a team, threw 1,477 innings in 2011 and are now going to pay, on average, $12.5 million per year to Papelbon to throw maybe 4.5 percent of those. If they maintained that per-inning rate across their entire staff, they'd spend about $277 million on pitching alone. And since the ninth inning isn't always, or even often, the most leveraged inning in a game, this is a criminal misapplication of funds, not to mention the discarding of yet another first-round draft pick for the Phillies, whose farm system is depleted after a number of trades and other first-round picks lost for free-agent signings.



Madson remains the best reliever on the market, but the gap between him and the second-best option is much larger, and that should help him max out his value, although the Phillies might just be completely out of touch with the market for relievers and how a sane executive would rationally value the innings they provide.



As for the Red Sox, they pick up the Phillies' first-round pick, which would make it easier for them to use their own in signing a Type A free agent. They can slide Daniel Bard into the ninth inning -- I don't see his stuff or arm slot translating to the rotation -- and invest the money not spent there on shoring up their rotation.

Ledbetterman10

Papelbon signs 4 year/$50 million deal with Phillies:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb

Johnny Abruzzo

The Fixer wrote:

jamminpearls wrote:

Makes no sense at all imo. For once i agree completely with the fixer!!! I would have signed Madson the dude's gonna be real good for years. Plus Papplebons a fly ball pitcher and are porch isn't very deep.

I wouldn't have paid either one what they gave papelturd or were rumored to give madson. that said I would take madson and his deal over this douche and his deal 100 times out of 100.

Howard and Papelbon will make a combined 37.5 million next year :roll:

He might pitch well next year. May pitch well two years from now. Four years, with an option for a 5th year!!!, is way too long for any RP though. The chances of his performance justifying this deal are slim to none

This is making me sick. It might still not happen, right? Ugh. :evil:


At least I'm enjoying watching this fun Phillies Mets game.

Johnny Abruzzo

It's on the Phillies website. FUCK.

RW81233

To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

Johnny Abruzzo

RW81233 wrote:

To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

That's a better take than I feel like it is.

neilybabes86

hahaha

enjoy this bum....in your ballpark...

jamminpearls

RW81233 wrote:

To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

Although i'm not a fan of this signing i disagree with this completely.

RW81233

jammin I said the contract was suck and it'll never be worth it but Coco is a flyball pitcher in the Great American Smallpark. Plus he will be going against the "hellish" lineups that the Mets and Marlins throw out there 15-20 times-ish a year, not the Yanks, Rays, and Joey-Bats. I guess the moral of the story is make way for your Washington Nationals once they sign the Prince of Pain.

The Fixer

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

RW81233 wrote:

To borrow from Kurt Cobain look on the bright side, suicide....ok more seriously. Paps is basically the White Mississippian version of Coco Cordero. The Reds blew up for him in the 08 FA period, and he's been a standard above-average reliever over that time. Not too good, not too bad. If you get that outta Paps, it'll never be worth the 50 million you spent today, but Cordero was something like 4 for 40 and with inflation this makes about sense. What doesn't make sense is spending money for a reliever on a team that will win about 80 games just based on your 5 starters ability. Paps WAR for normal teams might be 3, but for the Phils it'll be like .1, because they may as well leave Capn' Roy, Cliffy, and Cole on the hill to finish the game. I know this is terrible, and usually like to revel in your pain, but it's just a standard deal for an above-average reliever who will be about as good as K-Rod by the end. Good luck.

That's a better take than I feel like it is.

haha, best response ever.

fuck me. RAJ I hate you. Get a fuckin clue.

Cant wait to see how bad this cuddyer deal is.

The Fixer

Took the wife out for the Last Supper tonight. Del Frisco's was delicious. Lobster mac n cheese and crab gnocchi. yum

adulthood is right around the corner :shock:

Wobbie

The Fixer wrote:

1 - why so many years??

2 - if you're going to overpay for a closer (which I disagree with on premise alone), why not choose the better player, which is madson?

3 - What teams were you competing against for papelbon?? (an amaro staple is overpaying for aging players, even when there is no competition to raise said players value...see polanco, ibanez, howard, lidge)

4 - do you expect papelbon's performance to improve over his last few years or do you just love overpaying for dimishing returns on your investments?

5 - Didn't you go to stanford??

Dear Fixer-

1) I did "eeny meeny miney moe"

2) see above

3) there was no one else. I just figured "what the fuck? it's not MY money"

4) nah. I know he'll get worse every year. second part - see above.

5) I did go to stanford but they only graduated me because I was on the ball team.

Thanks for your interest.
RAJ

Wobbie

as a guy familiar with bad contracts (zito, rowand, huff, etc.), here's this:

Phillies overpay to sign Papelbon

By David Schoenfield

Reports are in that the Philadelphia Phillies have signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract, pending a physical.

As I wrote earlier this week, I'm not a big fan of paying big money for closers, as I think smart organizations can find alternative means to building a bullpen. The Phillies, of course, have deep pockets and there is little doubt Papelbon is one of the best relievers the game ... right?

Well, how do you define "one of the best"? The Phillies are defining him as "second-best" (behind only Mariano Rivera), at least in terms of salary. But here are Papelbon's rankings over the past three seasons among all relievers with at least 150 innings:

* 19th in batting average
* 16th in on-base percentage
* 18th in slugging percentage
* 23rd in ERA


OK ... so maybe he isn't quite as awesome as we think. To be fair, he was better in 2011 (at least up until the final game) than 2010 and 2009, throwing more strikes and posting the second-best strikeout rate of his career. Overall, however, he wasn't as dominating the past three seasons as his first three seasons. If he pitches like he did in 2011, he's an elite closer; if he pitches like he did in 2010, when he seemed reluctant to challenge hitters and he served up seven home runs, he's less than elite.

So why the $50 million contract? Well, he's a proven Closer, with a capital C. He has the fifth-most saves over the past three seasons and the second-most ever of any pitcher in his first seven seasons. He's shown he has the necessary guts and fortitude to handle the ninth inning, unlike a mere middle reliever. Heck, he's even closed out a World Series. (Never mind that three of the past 10 World Series champs had unproven closers, including two rookies.) Of course, in the past six biggest games he's pitched in -- the 2008 and '09 playoffs and the final game of 2011 -- he's just three for six in save opportunities, as Red Sox fans well know.

OK, that's a little harsh. Papelbon is a very good pitcher. He's been handled carefully in his career (never pitched 70 innings in a regular season) and is as good a bet as any reliever to remain healthy the next four seasons. I don't think he makes the Phillies any better than they were in 2011 or pushes them any closer to a World Series title (Ryan Madson was excellent), but he's a safe, if expensive, bet to do the job well.

As for the Red Sox, they can go after Madson or be content to slide Daniel Bard into the closer role and use the Papelbon money to go after two or three middle relievers to rebuild a bullpen drastically in need of depth, or a rotation drastically in need of another arm. All things considered, losing Papelbon may end up being a positive for Boston.

Johnny Abruzzo

Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head.

The Juggler

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head.

that is good to hear johnny. i respect your opinion on beers. i still haven't been able to get my hands on it yet. :x

papelschlong eh? if it came down to him or madson, similar money (less was reported for mad dog right?) not sure why they just didn't bring madson back.

and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.

polaris_x

i would really like to know who else was in the running for papelbon ... i suspect it's like the real estate racket where no one knows what the other bids so some couple desperate for a house overpays by like 15% ...

these kind of deals just makes it that much harder for small market teams to compete ... it's one thing to have a huge vault to spend ... it's another to set market rates based on that vault ...

Cliffy6745

The Juggler wrote:

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

Drank my first Faithfull last night. It's a really good beer. Very well done Belgian golden ale with a subtle fruit flavor. And you guys know I am hard on Dogfish Head.

that is good to hear johnny. i respect your opinion on beers. i still haven't been able to get my hands on it yet. :x

papelschlong eh? if it came down to him or madson, similar money (less was reported for mad dog right?) not sure why they just didn't bring madson back.

and somebody tell jimmy rollins to stop clogging up my facebook home page. hopped on this morning and dude had about 20 posts about the fucking fight last night. awful.

I have probably been too hard on the beer, was just hoping for something a bit different. I'll put it this way, if this beer didn't have Pearl Jam slapped on the label there are many beers on tap at Dogfish Head that I would drink before it. Bitches Brew is fucking awesome.

Have you looked around recently? It hit shelves in Philly on Thursday, I think. A few places are already out, I believe. I think I heard they are brewing another batch right now.

Great fight last night.