Stock market
Comments
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This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.nicknyr15 said:Jeez0 -
Nice. Everything will be on sale.tempo_n_groove said:
This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.nicknyr15 said:Jeez0 -
I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.0
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All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.0 -
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!0 -
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!0 -
I'm expecting a huge sportscard drop off where I will be purchasing for sure.nicknyr15 said:
Nice. Everything will be on sale.tempo_n_groove said:
This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.nicknyr15 said:Jeez0 -
I agree that I'm not sold on a recession either. I'm just saying that even if we have one, it's not the end of the world so long as we manage the fall and employment stays solid. Price corrections on stocks are okay and offer buying opportunities.Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!0 -
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
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I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.0 -
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.0 -
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.0 -
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".0 -
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".0 -
Agreed on the bubble. When I was in AZ and attempting to rent from a guy, rent was always cheaper than a house note. He wanted Note+ for rent. He said he had 3 houses, asked him what he did for a living out there. His response? Warehouse worker at Costco... He didn't survive08 w those houses...mrussel1 said:
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".
There is a "shortage" of houses caused by corporations buying them and holding for rent rather than selling. It is more profitable to hold the property and rent than the quick flip thus driving demand up.
It's a false supply and demand. People who are paying over asking have to because people strapped w cash are more desirable to deal with so they have to over bid to land a house.
It's friggin crazy.0 -
Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.mrussel1 said:
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".
When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Right, you would hear about real estate and mortgage brokers telling everyone to buy into what they can afford NOW with a short term ARM and not worry about when the interest comes calling because the value will only go up and then you can sell and get rich, or refinance again. Well that didn't work out how everyone planned.Gern Blansten said:
Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.mrussel1 said:
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".
When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.0 -
I honestly do think it's the latter. Buying a home is a privilege that is only slipping further and further away for a lot of people. It is crazy how low supply is.mrussel1 said:
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".0 -
I forgot about the ARM....definitely fucked over a lot of people. We saw it in our neighborhood as we were one of the first houses there.mrussel1 said:
Right, you would hear about real estate and mortgage brokers telling everyone to buy into what they can afford NOW with a short term ARM and not worry about when the interest comes calling because the value will only go up and then you can sell and get rich, or refinance again. Well that didn't work out how everyone planned.Gern Blansten said:
Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.mrussel1 said:
In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming. You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money. But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages. So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed. This bump is unusual. I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying? I don't even know.tempo_n_groove said:
What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents. I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.mrussel1 said:
Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now, probably selling. But they were very active.Jearlpam0925 said:
Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).tempo_n_groove said:
I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.Jearlpam0925 said:
I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low. I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.tempo_n_groove said:
NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing. Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned. 500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...Jearlpam0925 said:
Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).mrussel1 said:
All about the soft landing...Jearlpam0925 said:I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly. We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.
People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.
And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.
Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks. They but received 20% over list with no inspection. It is crazy. They both sold for over $200 per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.
I do not want to be "house poor".
When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.
I'll say this though...we were only there for about three years as we grew out of the tiny house that we built but that neighborhood is still there and doesn't look as bad as I expected it to look after 26 years now. A single guy bought our house which was a 1000 sq ft three bedroom ranch.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Like I said - just very weird territory:
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