U.S. Stocks End Sharply Lower As Financials Woes Return

spyguy

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

so how much trading have you ever done, Mr. Knowitall?

I've been trading dow and S&P futures ( and some equities) for longer then you've been alive. how bout u?

slightofjeff

spyguy wrote:

I've been trading dow and S&P futures ( and some equities) for longer then you've been alive. how bout u?

This is just a guess ... but I'll bet he hasn't been trading longer than he's been alive.

Unless he was getting hot stock tips when he was just a piece of sperm.

spiral out

spyguy wrote:

so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.

Are you still playing in the markets then?

Your not really much older either are you? 28?

Kann

spyguy wrote:

so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.

Haha, this has got to be one of the worst arguments I've seen around here.
As for supply and demand I always thought this "law" works in a free market. The oil market is anything but free, between speculation, various market manipulations ranging from threatening to attack a middle eastern country to creating instability in key regions of the world in terms of oil supply. I would like to see a source, numbers, facts anything showing that the rise in oil demand has been as quick and important as the rise in prices.

spyguy

Kann wrote:

Haha, this has got to be one of the worst arguments I've seen around here.
As for supply and demand I always thought this "law" works in a free market. The oil market is anything but free, between speculation, various market manipulations ranging from threatening to attack a middle eastern country to creating instability in key regions of the world in terms of oil supply. I would like to see a source, numbers, facts anything showing that the rise in oil demand has been as quick and important as the rise in prices.

classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?

i.e (from 8am EST)

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082005

Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.

spyguy

spiral out wrote:

Are you still playing in the markets then?

Your not really much older either are you? 28?

I'm retired from trading. now I do other things. I own a restaurant and invested in a few start up companies that are doing well.

spyguy

AJ, I will give ya this though. I'm very concerned about FNM and FRE

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/news/companies/fannie_freddie/index.htm?postversion=2008082010

SpreadtheJAM

spyguy wrote:

classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?

i.e (from 8am EST)

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082005

Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.

Speculators are not apart of the actual supply and demand for oil. They are apart of the supply and demand for oil future contracts. I would be willing to bet that over 95% of oil future contracts aren't even held to the expiration date. They are just flipped between speculators. Now tell me how that actually gauges the supply and demand for oil.
That trading is not based on supply and demand fundamentals. Its just some specs trying to make a buck.

spyguy

SpreadtheJAM wrote:

Speculators are not apart of the actual supply and demand for oil. They are apart of the supply and demand for oil future contracts. I would be willing to bet that over 95% of oil future contracts aren't even held to the expiration date. They are just flipped between speculators. Now tell me how that actually gauges the supply and demand for oil.
That trading is not based on supply and demand fundamentals. Its just some specs trying to make a buck.

give this a read and tell me what ya think

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357

SpreadtheJAM

spyguy wrote:

give this a read and tell me what ya think

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357

"Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil"

I find this paragraph explains pretty much what happened during this oil bubble. Except i believe many of their expectations are based on whims. We have never seen swings in the oil market like we have seen this summer. Some days up 7 a barrell next day down five. Percentage swings like that should not happen for some commodity where the supply is fixed in the short run and near long run.

And now why is the price falling ? because the price was driven up to unjustifiable heights, and demand contracted and now its coming back down to earth. You mentioned the dot-com bubble. All this irrational money being pumped into something overhyped. Then there was the housing bubble. Now the commodity bubble.

spyguy

SpreadtheJAM wrote:

"Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil"

I find this paragraph explains pretty much what happened during this oil bubble. Except i believe many of their expectations are based on whims. We have never seen swings in the oil market like we have seen this summer. Some days up 7 a barrell next day down five. Percentage swings like that should not happen for some commodity where the supply is fixed in the short run and near long run.

well I dont think its on whims. traders do things for a reason. and the big swings u saw are mostly because the price is so high. a 7 or 5 dollar move is not that big when the price is 140.

SpreadtheJAM wrote:

And now why is the price falling ? because the price was driven up to unjustifiable heights, and demand contracted and now its coming back down to earth. You mentioned the dot-com bubble. All this irrational money being pumped into something overhyped. Then there was the housing bubble. Now the commodity bubble.

the price has fallen because demand fell. people drove less, truckers were forced off the road, airlines cut back flights. supply and demand at its finest.

SpreadtheJAM

spyguy wrote:

well I dont think its on whims. traders do things for a reason. and the big swings u saw are mostly because the price is so high. a 7 or 5 dollar move is not that big when the price is 140.



the price has fallen because demand fell. people drove less, truckers were forced off the road, airlines cut back flights. supply and demand at its finest.

I belive demand brought it back down from "unjustifiable heights" but how do you believe it got up to those heights. Pure supply and demand fndamentals?

spyguy

SpreadtheJAM wrote:

I belive demand brought it back down from "unjustifiable heights" but how do you believe it got up to those heights. Pure supply and demand fndamentals?

yes. but I believe traders are part of supply and demand.

spyguy

spyguy wrote:

AJ, I will give ya this though. I'm very concerned about FNM and FRE

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/news/companies/fannie_freddie/index.htm?postversion=2008082010

more..

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/news/fannie.freddie.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008082013

Kann

spyguy wrote:

classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?

i.e (from 8am EST)

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082005

Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.

How do threats influence supply? As far as I know the threats made towards Iran didn't stop them from producing barrels.
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.

spyguy

Kann wrote:

How do threats influence supply? As far as I know the threats made towards Iran didn't stop them from producing barrels.

it effects the possibility of a disruption in supply. which again, is still part of supply and demand.

Kann wrote:

As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.

that is the dumbest analogy I've ever heard. cute though

spyguy

Kann wrote:

How do threats influence supply? As far as I know the threats made towards Iran didn't stop them from producing barrels.
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.

I posted this here and few posts back. its the best article I've read in regards to this. I'd like your take on it

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357

DriftingByTheStorm

spyguy wrote:

I posted this here and few posts back. its the best article I've read in regards to this. I'd like your take on it

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357

1. The Economist, while reasonably accurate on matters of immediate economic fact (what is this country up to, what is going on here or there economically speaking, how is this sector performing related to the global market, or other such analysis), it should, on the contrary, be regarded with EXTREME skepticism when it comes to matters of interpreting current events.

The Economist is owned by The Economist Group which itself is a quazi-holding-company owned primarily by

a. The Financial Times Limited -- the, as AJ says, "real financial newspaper of record" out of London. The FT itself is an British imperialists rag of the highest order. Always has been, always will be.

b. THE FUCKING ROTHSCHILDS, who have always owned a large portion of the magazine, although since the 1900's have lessend their visible ownership of the magazine by holding shares through corporations which themselves have 50%+ Rothschild control.

2. Now that we've gotten the troubling matter of who the fuck owns The Economist out of the way (and don't get me wrong, i'll read the damn zine, but be warned you should know whose interests are represented there within), we can get down to the crux of the matter, which is:

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MANIPULATION, NOT SPECULATION.

I don't give two shits about speculators.
That is ALL the market is, and has been for quite sometime.
The number of futures shares that trade hands daily on any given commodity are RIDICULOUSLY skewed by speculators. The LARGE majority of those contraacts will NEVER be held to maturity, never be delivered, and never affect actual movement of physical commodities. THEY ARE SIMPLY INSTRUMENTS MEANT TO FUNCTION AS PROFIT MAKING TRADES FOR LARGE INVESTMENT FIRMS.

Sure futures contracts have their roots in actual exchange of goods, but these days most contracts are simply used to affect bets in the market.

THATS JUST THE WAY IT IS.

WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT HERE IS PURE COLLUSIVE MANIPULATION

CONSPIRACY
if you will.

Bob, Tom, and Jerry get together and decide that they want oil to be X dollars a barrell. Maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry know or have control over companies that print investment advice, deliver news media on the markets, or have control over actual production. Maybe they are deeply imbedded in politics and can actualy affect the global political climate and influence production, manufacture fear, or stir up real conflict in the name of manipulation. Fuck, maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry even sit in on the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, or work for or own firms that take orders from the PWGFM and maybe they even have their LOSSES GUARANTEED by that dark shadowy force.

WHO KNOWS HOW DEEP IT RUNS,
but it sure as fuck ain't normal market operations for relatively slow moving commodities like oil and gold to run up tens or hundreds of dollars per market unit in only a month, and then to come down half as much in a matter of days. Further, when such moves run in CONTRAST to the actual dynamics of how markets work, ONE REALLY HAS TO WONDER.

If inflation just got worse in the last week,
why are commodity prices plunging?

And how come the whole massive move in prices was all "covered up" with all this "War in Georgia" bullshit?

ITS ALL MANUFACTURED BULLSHIT.

And one would have to be either mad, or a fool, to buy in to it at face value.

Go back and read some of those Chapman articles on theinternationalforecaster.com ... maybe you'll learn something.

spyguy

its impossible to debate with you. I honestly thinking more then half this board has you on ignore.

DriftingByTheStorm

spyguy wrote:

its impossible to debate with you. I honestly thinking more then half this board has you on ignore.

At this point,
i bet more poor saps have you on ignore, bub.