the price of oil is traded on the open market. supply and demand is the only factor that can move the price.
what are you getting at?
That supply and demand is not a rock solid law, it's a best a nice theory that's lost in various market manipulations as the oil market has been showing us recently. Before having my life ruled by the omnipotent laws of economics I would have liked that our governments made sure these laws actually worked.
That supply and demand is not a rock solid law, it's a best a nice theory that's lost in various market manipulations as the oil market has been showing us recently. Before having my life ruled by the omnipotent laws of economics I would have liked that our governments made sure these laws actually worked.
actually it is pretty rock solid in this case. its a openly traded commodity. how has oil been manipulated? what what is your definition of market manipulation?
actually it is pretty rock solid in this case. its a openly traded commodity. how has oil been manipulated? what what is your definition of market manipulation?
I think oil has been manipulated in so many various ways that it is hard to pinpoint exactly what is going on.
At the darkest and highest levels, i think there was actual verbally agreed collusion by massive players in the market (think Bilderberg) to run up futures contracts, thus wagging the dog (futures determining the actual near term price).
Energy - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission proposed new rules that would levy stiff fines for manipulation in the petroleum markets.
The plan seeks to deter "fraudulent or deceptive conduct," including false reporting or misleading announcements by refineries, pipelines or investment banks, the FTC said in a statement. Violators could face civil penalties of up to $1 million US per violation per day.
"The Federal Trade Commission is committed to exercising its authority to determine whether crude oil, gasoline or petroleum distillates price increases at wholesale are a result of illegal market manipulation," the agency's chairman, William Kovacic, said in a statement.
So you think the FTC needs a lesson i "supply and demand" or you think that there may possibly be some actual dirty tricks going on in the market?
:cool:
ps - and "having balls" in the trading game is a good way to get yourself broke in a hurry. The market doesn't give a flying fuck about your ego or cohones. Smarts and patience get you a lot further than bullheaded determination to make a play regardless of the risk involved. Just like Abusketi, i made the determination that the risks outweigh the rewards at this point in time ... so far as trading is concerned.
pps - markets are beat up pretty heavy again today. Inflation is at a 27 year high, and analysts on TV are saying that this is "alarming... to put it mildly" and that if the Fed can't reign in inflation in short order there will be "severe problems for the street".
ppps - its hard to "reign in inflation" when you just signed the most massive bailout package in history. Yikes!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
give me a break dude. excuse me for recognizing the dollars recent gains. its better then cheerleading for the opposite.....something you seem to be doing.
It's something he excels at. Just ignore him. I tried to this time but curiosity got the best of me.
Oil rises as US dollar weakens
Dollar Gives Crude a Lift
Crude Oil Advances on Weaker Dollar
OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Leaps $3 In Thin Volume As Dlr Sags
Dollar slides on higher US inflation, oil gain
Producer Price Index Jumps 1.2%; Housing Starts Reverse June Rise
WRAPUP 1-US inflation pressures mount; home building slows
European markets fall on financial worries, US inflation data
FOREX-Profit-taking, weak stocks drag US dollar lower
FOREX-US dollar falls for 2nd straight day as stocks weigh
Global stocks slide on credit and inflation fears
The news is pretty unanimously shitty and grim.
The housing market remains fucked.
Freddie and Fannie remain fucked.
Inflation remains totally and unequivocally fucked.
The forecast for stocks is more or less fucked.
Large banks are looking fucked.
The manufacturing sector is by and large wholly fucked.
The big US automakers are 100% fucked.
and yet somehow i'm supposed to get excited and report ecstatically about some phony baloney rise in the dollar ...
In what can only be described as the most obnoxious market manipulations of all time, the elitists have pulled out all the stops to give the stock markets their final "hurrah", while simultaneously producing the greatest precious metals and resource share bargains you could have possibly hoped for. Let 8/8/08 stand as a testament to the unmitigated gall and flagrant manipulation of markets by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, known as the PPT, whose existence and 24/7 illegal intervention in every market on the planet, though unacknowledged by the Fed and our government, has now been confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt.
And straight from the headline of Chapman's August 13th article ... AND THIS IS FOR SPYGUY who says i have no balls ... :rolleyes: ...
markets too chaotic to make money anymore due to extreme volatility [... from body of article now ...]
The extreme market volatility in all markets has made trading conditions next to chaotic. The worst volatility that we’ve seen in 48 years.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Oil rises as US dollar weakens
Dollar Gives Crude a Lift
Crude Oil Advances on Weaker Dollar
OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Leaps $3 In Thin Volume As Dlr Sags
Dollar slides on higher US inflation, oil gain
Producer Price Index Jumps 1.2%; Housing Starts Reverse June Rise
WRAPUP 1-US inflation pressures mount; home building slows
European markets fall on financial worries, US inflation data
FOREX-Profit-taking, weak stocks drag US dollar lower
FOREX-US dollar falls for 2nd straight day as stocks weigh
Global stocks slide on credit and inflation fears
The news is pretty unanimously shitty and grim.
The housing market remains fucked.
Freddie and Fannie remain fucked.
Inflation remains totally and unequivocally fucked.
The forecast for stocks is more or less fucked.
Large banks are looking fucked.
The manufacturing sector is by and large wholly fucked.
The big US automakers are 100% fucked.
and yet somehow i'm supposed to get excited and report ecstatically about some phony baloney rise in the dollar ...
you are a fearmonger. yup I like that term. where were your threads last week when the market rebounded? secondly, how old r u? is this for your first market downturn? do you understand that markets fluctuate? seems to me ( and apparently others) you love to cheer for the US economy to tank. it actually gets you off.
and yea, the world according to bob chapman. BFD. he's a complete dumbass based on this statement...
"markets too chaotic to make money anymore due to extreme volatility"
Traders LOVE volatility. thats how they make money.
yes the financial and housing sectors suck right now. everyone knows it but other companies and sectors are doing very well...like HP who just reported earnings..
Hewlett-Packard beats expectations
Laptop sales help drive up third-quarter profit by 14%, company remains world's No. 1 seller of PCs.
Oil is down 30+ dollars off the high. the dollar, while showed signs of weakness today, is also .10 cents off the low. the world isnt a deep dark place that you think it is.
you are a fearmonger. yup I like that term. where were your threads last week when the market rebounded? secondly, how old r u? is this for your first market downturn? do you understand that markets fluctuate? seems to me ( and apparently others) you love to cheer for the US economy to tank. it actually gets you off.
and yea, the world according to bob chapman. BFD. he's a complete dumbass based on this statement...
"markets too chaotic to make money anymore due to extreme volatility"
Traders LOVE volatility. thats how they make money.
a dead cat bounce off of a near term bottom -- especially one predicated on manipulation -- is no reason to cheer.
i'm old enough to know that this isn't just some ordinary fucking downturn.
If you sat and thought hard, you might reach the same conclusion.
and no, traders like volatility, but if i gets too rough, it becomes nearly impossible to make accurate enough predictions\assessments to make any money.
If you fail to understand that extreme volatility can be counterproductive to profit in trading, then i would say it is clear not only that you are not a trader, but also quite possibly that it is not Chapman who is the DA here.
Sure volatility can make you wads of cash,
but if the market turns erratically each time you pick a position ... and it turns severely ... you will get stopped out until you are BLOWN OUT!
And if you are NOT getting stopped out,
it means you are a gambling fool, because a trader who trades without stops is likely to not be a trader very long.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
a dead cat bounce off of a near term bottom -- especially one predicated on manipulation -- is no reason to cheer.
i'm old enough to know that this isn't just some ordinary fucking downturn.
If you sat and thought hard, you might reach the same conclusion.
and no, traders like volatility, but if i gets too rough, it becomes nearly impossible to make accurate enough predictions\assessments to make any money.
If you fail to understand that extreme volatility can be counterproductive to profit in trading, then i would say it is clear not only that you are not a trader, but also quite possibly that it is not Chapman who is the DA here.
Sure volatility can make you wads of cash,
but if the market turns erratically each time you pick a position ... and it turns severely ... you will get stopped out until you are BLOWN OUT!
And if you are NOT getting stopped out,
it means you are a gambling fool, because a trader who trades without stops is likely to not be a trader very long.
so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.
and yes, traders love volatility. thats the bottom line. dance around that fact anyway you want, its true.
so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.
Are you still playing in the markets then?
Your not really much older either are you? 28?
Keep on rockin in the free world!!!!
The economy has polarized to the point where the wealthiest 10% now own 85% of the nation’s wealth. Never before have the bottom 90% been so highly indebted, so dependent on the wealthy.
so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.
Haha, this has got to be one of the worst arguments I've seen around here.
As for supply and demand I always thought this "law" works in a free market. The oil market is anything but free, between speculation, various market manipulations ranging from threatening to attack a middle eastern country to creating instability in key regions of the world in terms of oil supply. I would like to see a source, numbers, facts anything showing that the rise in oil demand has been as quick and important as the rise in prices.
Haha, this has got to be one of the worst arguments I've seen around here.
As for supply and demand I always thought this "law" works in a free market. The oil market is anything but free, between speculation, various market manipulations ranging from threatening to attack a middle eastern country to creating instability in key regions of the world in terms of oil supply. I would like to see a source, numbers, facts anything showing that the rise in oil demand has been as quick and important as the rise in prices.
classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?
classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?
Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.
Speculators are not apart of the actual supply and demand for oil. They are apart of the supply and demand for oil future contracts. I would be willing to bet that over 95% of oil future contracts aren't even held to the expiration date. They are just flipped between speculators. Now tell me how that actually gauges the supply and demand for oil.
That trading is not based on supply and demand fundamentals. Its just some specs trying to make a buck.
Speculators are not apart of the actual supply and demand for oil. They are apart of the supply and demand for oil future contracts. I would be willing to bet that over 95% of oil future contracts aren't even held to the expiration date. They are just flipped between speculators. Now tell me how that actually gauges the supply and demand for oil.
That trading is not based on supply and demand fundamentals. Its just some specs trying to make a buck.
"Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil"
I find this paragraph explains pretty much what happened during this oil bubble. Except i believe many of their expectations are based on whims. We have never seen swings in the oil market like we have seen this summer. Some days up 7 a barrell next day down five. Percentage swings like that should not happen for some commodity where the supply is fixed in the short run and near long run.
And now why is the price falling ? because the price was driven up to unjustifiable heights, and demand contracted and now its coming back down to earth. You mentioned the dot-com bubble. All this irrational money being pumped into something overhyped. Then there was the housing bubble. Now the commodity bubble.
"Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil"
I find this paragraph explains pretty much what happened during this oil bubble. Except i believe many of their expectations are based on whims. We have never seen swings in the oil market like we have seen this summer. Some days up 7 a barrell next day down five. Percentage swings like that should not happen for some commodity where the supply is fixed in the short run and near long run.
well I dont think its on whims. traders do things for a reason. and the big swings u saw are mostly because the price is so high. a 7 or 5 dollar move is not that big when the price is 140.
And now why is the price falling ? because the price was driven up to unjustifiable heights, and demand contracted and now its coming back down to earth. You mentioned the dot-com bubble. All this irrational money being pumped into something overhyped. Then there was the housing bubble. Now the commodity bubble.
the price has fallen because demand fell. people drove less, truckers were forced off the road, airlines cut back flights. supply and demand at its finest.
well I dont think its on whims. traders do things for a reason. and the big swings u saw are mostly because the price is so high. a 7 or 5 dollar move is not that big when the price is 140.
the price has fallen because demand fell. people drove less, truckers were forced off the road, airlines cut back flights. supply and demand at its finest.
I belive demand brought it back down from "unjustifiable heights" but how do you believe it got up to those heights. Pure supply and demand fndamentals?
I belive demand brought it back down from "unjustifiable heights" but how do you believe it got up to those heights. Pure supply and demand fndamentals?
yes. but I believe traders are part of supply and demand.
classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?
Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.
How do threats influence supply? As far as I know the threats made towards Iran didn't stop them from producing barrels.
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.
that is the dumbest analogy I've ever heard. cute though
How do threats influence supply? As far as I know the threats made towards Iran didn't stop them from producing barrels.
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.
I posted this here and few posts back. its the best article I've read in regards to this. I'd like your take on it
1. The Economist, while reasonably accurate on matters of immediate economic fact (what is this country up to, what is going on here or there economically speaking, how is this sector performing related to the global market, or other such analysis), it should, on the contrary, be regarded with EXTREME skepticism when it comes to matters of interpreting current events.
The Economist is owned by The Economist Group which itself is a quazi-holding-company owned primarily by
a. The Financial Times Limited -- the, as AJ says, "real financial newspaper of record" out of London. The FT itself is an British imperialists rag of the highest order. Always has been, always will be.
b. THE FUCKING ROTHSCHILDS, who have always owned a large portion of the magazine, although since the 1900's have lessend their visible ownership of the magazine by holding shares through corporations which themselves have 50%+ Rothschild control.
2. Now that we've gotten the troubling matter of who the fuck owns The Economist out of the way (and don't get me wrong, i'll read the damn zine, but be warned you should know whose interests are represented there within), we can get down to the crux of the matter, which is:
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MANIPULATION, NOT SPECULATION.
I don't give two shits about speculators.
That is ALL the market is, and has been for quite sometime.
The number of futures shares that trade hands daily on any given commodity are RIDICULOUSLY skewed by speculators. The LARGE majority of those contraacts will NEVER be held to maturity, never be delivered, and never affect actual movement of physical commodities. THEY ARE SIMPLY INSTRUMENTS MEANT TO FUNCTION AS PROFIT MAKING TRADES FOR LARGE INVESTMENT FIRMS.
Sure futures contracts have their roots in actual exchange of goods, but these days most contracts are simply used to affect bets in the market.
THATS JUST THE WAY IT IS.
WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT HERE IS PURE COLLUSIVE MANIPULATION
CONSPIRACY
if you will.
Bob, Tom, and Jerry get together and decide that they want oil to be X dollars a barrell. Maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry know or have control over companies that print investment advice, deliver news media on the markets, or have control over actual production. Maybe they are deeply imbedded in politics and can actualy affect the global political climate and influence production, manufacture fear, or stir up real conflict in the name of manipulation. Fuck, maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry even sit in on the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, or work for or own firms that take orders from the PWGFM and maybe they even have their LOSSES GUARANTEED by that dark shadowy force.
WHO KNOWS HOW DEEP IT RUNS,
but it sure as fuck ain't normal market operations for relatively slow moving commodities like oil and gold to run up tens or hundreds of dollars per market unit in only a month, and then to come down half as much in a matter of days. Further, when such moves run in CONTRAST to the actual dynamics of how markets work, ONE REALLY HAS TO WONDER.
If inflation just got worse in the last week,
why are commodity prices plunging?
And how come the whole massive move in prices was all "covered up" with all this "War in Georgia" bullshit?
ITS ALL MANUFACTURED BULLSHIT.
And one would have to be either mad, or a fool, to buy in to it at face value.
Go back and read some of those Chapman articles on theinternationalforecaster.com ... maybe you'll learn something.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Comments
actually it is pretty rock solid in this case. its a openly traded commodity. how has oil been manipulated? what what is your definition of market manipulation?
I think oil has been manipulated in so many various ways that it is hard to pinpoint exactly what is going on.
At the darkest and highest levels, i think there was actual verbally agreed collusion by massive players in the market (think Bilderberg) to run up futures contracts, thus wagging the dog (futures determining the actual near term price).
And in case you think the whole idea of oil manipulation is a crack-pot conspiracy, go try googling "Oil manipulation" ... here is just one good example:
Calgary Herald, August 14th 2008: REGULATOR TARGETS OIL MANIPULATION
So you think the FTC needs a lesson i "supply and demand" or you think that there may possibly be some actual dirty tricks going on in the market?
:cool:
ps - and "having balls" in the trading game is a good way to get yourself broke in a hurry. The market doesn't give a flying fuck about your ego or cohones. Smarts and patience get you a lot further than bullheaded determination to make a play regardless of the risk involved. Just like Abusketi, i made the determination that the risks outweigh the rewards at this point in time ... so far as trading is concerned.
pps - markets are beat up pretty heavy again today. Inflation is at a 27 year high, and analysts on TV are saying that this is "alarming... to put it mildly" and that if the Fed can't reign in inflation in short order there will be "severe problems for the street".
ppps - its hard to "reign in inflation" when you just signed the most massive bailout package in history. Yikes!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
It's something he excels at. Just ignore him. I tried to this time but curiosity got the best of me.
Yeah you got it.
I'm a fucking fearmonger.
Type in "US Dollar" on Google and click "news"
here is the search ...
Look at the first screen full of stories.
Oil rises as US dollar weakens
Dollar Gives Crude a Lift
Crude Oil Advances on Weaker Dollar
OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Leaps $3 In Thin Volume As Dlr Sags
Dollar slides on higher US inflation, oil gain
Producer Price Index Jumps 1.2%; Housing Starts Reverse June Rise
WRAPUP 1-US inflation pressures mount; home building slows
European markets fall on financial worries, US inflation data
FOREX-Profit-taking, weak stocks drag US dollar lower
FOREX-US dollar falls for 2nd straight day as stocks weigh
Global stocks slide on credit and inflation fears
The news is pretty unanimously shitty and grim.
The housing market remains fucked.
Freddie and Fannie remain fucked.
Inflation remains totally and unequivocally fucked.
The forecast for stocks is more or less fucked.
Large banks are looking fucked.
The manufacturing sector is by and large wholly fucked.
The big US automakers are 100% fucked.
and yet somehow i'm supposed to get excited and report ecstatically about some phony baloney rise in the dollar ...
Bob Chapman is a smart man:
Markets Continue to be Subject to Manipulations and False Information
And straight from the headline of Chapman's August 13th article ... AND THIS IS FOR SPYGUY who says i have no balls ... :rolleyes: ...
"Economy of the Living Dead" ...
If I opened it now would you not understand?
you are a fearmonger. yup I like that term. where were your threads last week when the market rebounded? secondly, how old r u? is this for your first market downturn? do you understand that markets fluctuate? seems to me ( and apparently others) you love to cheer for the US economy to tank. it actually gets you off.
and yea, the world according to bob chapman. BFD. he's a complete dumbass based on this statement...
"markets too chaotic to make money anymore due to extreme volatility"
Traders LOVE volatility. thats how they make money.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/19/news/companies/hp_earnings.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008081917
Hewlett-Packard beats expectations
Laptop sales help drive up third-quarter profit by 14%, company remains world's No. 1 seller of PCs.
Oil is down 30+ dollars off the high. the dollar, while showed signs of weakness today, is also .10 cents off the low. the world isnt a deep dark place that you think it is.
a dead cat bounce off of a near term bottom -- especially one predicated on manipulation -- is no reason to cheer.
i'm old enough to know that this isn't just some ordinary fucking downturn.
If you sat and thought hard, you might reach the same conclusion.
and no, traders like volatility, but if i gets too rough, it becomes nearly impossible to make accurate enough predictions\assessments to make any money.
If you fail to understand that extreme volatility can be counterproductive to profit in trading, then i would say it is clear not only that you are not a trader, but also quite possibly that it is not Chapman who is the DA here.
Sure volatility can make you wads of cash,
but if the market turns erratically each time you pick a position ... and it turns severely ... you will get stopped out until you are BLOWN OUT!
And if you are NOT getting stopped out,
it means you are a gambling fool, because a trader who trades without stops is likely to not be a trader very long.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
so you are 22? 23? not around during the recession of the 80s or even smart enough to know what hwas going on during the .com boom/bust? listen kid, these types of things happen.
and yes, traders love volatility. thats the bottom line. dance around that fact anyway you want, its true.
so how much trading have you ever done, Mr. Knowitall?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I've been trading dow and S&P futures ( and some equities) for longer then you've been alive. how bout u?
This is just a guess ... but I'll bet he hasn't been trading longer than he's been alive.
Unless he was getting hot stock tips when he was just a piece of sperm.
for the least they could possibly do
Are you still playing in the markets then?
Your not really much older either are you? 28?
The economy has polarized to the point where the wealthiest 10% now own 85% of the nation’s wealth. Never before have the bottom 90% been so highly indebted, so dependent on the wealthy.
As for supply and demand I always thought this "law" works in a free market. The oil market is anything but free, between speculation, various market manipulations ranging from threatening to attack a middle eastern country to creating instability in key regions of the world in terms of oil supply. I would like to see a source, numbers, facts anything showing that the rise in oil demand has been as quick and important as the rise in prices.
classic. speculators are part of supply and demand. and threats in the middle east effect supply. you said it yourself. Industrialization of china, India, and 3rd world countries have increased demand. please, tell me how supply and demand is not working here?
i.e (from 8am EST)
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082005
Oil edges up, all eyes on supply report
Crude prices gain slightly ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data.
I'm retired from trading. now I do other things. I own a restaurant and invested in a few start up companies that are doing well.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/news/companies/fannie_freddie/index.htm?postversion=2008082010
Speculators are not apart of the actual supply and demand for oil. They are apart of the supply and demand for oil future contracts. I would be willing to bet that over 95% of oil future contracts aren't even held to the expiration date. They are just flipped between speculators. Now tell me how that actually gauges the supply and demand for oil.
That trading is not based on supply and demand fundamentals. Its just some specs trying to make a buck.
give this a read and tell me what ya think
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357
"Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil"
I find this paragraph explains pretty much what happened during this oil bubble. Except i believe many of their expectations are based on whims. We have never seen swings in the oil market like we have seen this summer. Some days up 7 a barrell next day down five. Percentage swings like that should not happen for some commodity where the supply is fixed in the short run and near long run.
And now why is the price falling ? because the price was driven up to unjustifiable heights, and demand contracted and now its coming back down to earth. You mentioned the dot-com bubble. All this irrational money being pumped into something overhyped. Then there was the housing bubble. Now the commodity bubble.
well I dont think its on whims. traders do things for a reason. and the big swings u saw are mostly because the price is so high. a 7 or 5 dollar move is not that big when the price is 140.
the price has fallen because demand fell. people drove less, truckers were forced off the road, airlines cut back flights. supply and demand at its finest.
I belive demand brought it back down from "unjustifiable heights" but how do you believe it got up to those heights. Pure supply and demand fndamentals?
yes. but I believe traders are part of supply and demand.
more..
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/news/fannie.freddie.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008082013
As for speculators being part of the demand it's dodging the main problem with oil, price manipulation is pretty effective. Thanks for the article though.
Needing to believe in the supply/demand theory in today's world is like the need to believe in God when you're old, you've got to hold on to something.
it effects the possibility of a disruption in supply. which again, is still part of supply and demand.
that is the dumbest analogy I've ever heard. cute though
I posted this here and few posts back. its the best article I've read in regards to this. I'd like your take on it
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357
1. The Economist, while reasonably accurate on matters of immediate economic fact (what is this country up to, what is going on here or there economically speaking, how is this sector performing related to the global market, or other such analysis), it should, on the contrary, be regarded with EXTREME skepticism when it comes to matters of interpreting current events.
The Economist is owned by The Economist Group which itself is a quazi-holding-company owned primarily by
a. The Financial Times Limited -- the, as AJ says, "real financial newspaper of record" out of London. The FT itself is an British imperialists rag of the highest order. Always has been, always will be.
b. THE FUCKING ROTHSCHILDS, who have always owned a large portion of the magazine, although since the 1900's have lessend their visible ownership of the magazine by holding shares through corporations which themselves have 50%+ Rothschild control.
2. Now that we've gotten the troubling matter of who the fuck owns The Economist out of the way (and don't get me wrong, i'll read the damn zine, but be warned you should know whose interests are represented there within), we can get down to the crux of the matter, which is:
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MANIPULATION, NOT SPECULATION.
I don't give two shits about speculators.
That is ALL the market is, and has been for quite sometime.
The number of futures shares that trade hands daily on any given commodity are RIDICULOUSLY skewed by speculators. The LARGE majority of those contraacts will NEVER be held to maturity, never be delivered, and never affect actual movement of physical commodities. THEY ARE SIMPLY INSTRUMENTS MEANT TO FUNCTION AS PROFIT MAKING TRADES FOR LARGE INVESTMENT FIRMS.
Sure futures contracts have their roots in actual exchange of goods, but these days most contracts are simply used to affect bets in the market.
THATS JUST THE WAY IT IS.
WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT HERE IS PURE COLLUSIVE MANIPULATION
CONSPIRACY
if you will.
Bob, Tom, and Jerry get together and decide that they want oil to be X dollars a barrell. Maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry know or have control over companies that print investment advice, deliver news media on the markets, or have control over actual production. Maybe they are deeply imbedded in politics and can actualy affect the global political climate and influence production, manufacture fear, or stir up real conflict in the name of manipulation. Fuck, maybe Bob, Tom, and Jerry even sit in on the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, or work for or own firms that take orders from the PWGFM and maybe they even have their LOSSES GUARANTEED by that dark shadowy force.
WHO KNOWS HOW DEEP IT RUNS,
but it sure as fuck ain't normal market operations for relatively slow moving commodities like oil and gold to run up tens or hundreds of dollars per market unit in only a month, and then to come down half as much in a matter of days. Further, when such moves run in CONTRAST to the actual dynamics of how markets work, ONE REALLY HAS TO WONDER.
If inflation just got worse in the last week,
why are commodity prices plunging?
And how come the whole massive move in prices was all "covered up" with all this "War in Georgia" bullshit?
ITS ALL MANUFACTURED BULLSHIT.
And one would have to be either mad, or a fool, to buy in to it at face value.
Go back and read some of those Chapman articles on theinternationalforecaster.com ... maybe you'll learn something.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
At this point,
i bet more poor saps have you on ignore, bub.
If I opened it now would you not understand?