The Rate Cut Didn't Help. Trading Was Halted @ 4 AM. WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

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  • Abuskedti
    Abuskedti Posts: 1,917
    jlew24asu wrote:
    only mr doom and gloom can dwell on something negative in the face of one of the greatest rallys in recent memory. pity.

    that wasn't a rally, just a correction in the other direction...

    stil got lotza falling to do
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    New Home Sales = POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP!

    Another rocky start to another rocky week.
    :(

    New home sales coming in a good few points below consensus, and INVENTORIES RISING (up to 9.6 months from 9.3 months)
    :(

    We have FOMC meetings tomorrow, durable goods orders, and then on Wednesday MORE FED FUN! We get another rate cut decision! Woo hoo!

    Finding it hard to see a silver lining here.
    Guess the lining is that the new homes data slump has yet to send us spiraling down ... just sputtering.

    hmm.
    :cool:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    This one is for Jlew.

    Dow about to close up 150 points.

    YIPPEE!
    WE'RE SAVED!

    The market thinks we put in a double bottom last week and its in a Rally!

    YAY YAY YAY!

    I can't wait to see how fast the Fed can fuck it all up.
    T minus three days.

    :D

    There is your optomism, buddy.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    Wow.
    Holy shit!
    RECESSION!

    ISM number FUCKING SUCKED!

    Jlew, whats going on here?
    That number is HIGHLY recessionary, is it not?

    :(

    I just woke up.
    I've been having sleep schedule problems. :(
    Missed some good moves today.

    ALthough NONE of it is "good" for the health of our economy.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    I guess everyone is too focused on Super Tuesday to notice that it is TERRIBLE TUESDAY for the stock market.

    The ISM Non-Manufacturing news this morning is probably the straw that broke the camels back, imho.

    In very unusual and troubling results, the ISM's non-manufacturing business activity index plunged to 41.9 in January from 54.4 in December. This is the most extreme move on record and the lowest reading since the 2001 recession. The ISM moved up the time of the report to 8:55 a.m. ET, perhaps reflecting the enormous move or, according to this morning's chatter in the financial markets, because an ISM representative publicly referred to the results yesterday.

    The report also marks the debut of a composite index, which came in not much better at 44.6. Composite indexes have the virtue of reducing volatility, though in essence they tend to squeeze together forward indicators, such as new orders, with lagging indicators, such as production. Either way you slice it, the results are poor.

    New orders, arguably the report's most important reading headline or otherwise, plunged to 43.5 from 53.9 -- again the lowest reading since the recession.[/g] Backlogs fell 3 points to 46.0 in more bad news. Export orders however are still above water, up 2 points to 52.0 and reflecting strong global demand and the competitive advantage of a weak currency. But import orders show the weakness in the nation's economy, down to 41.5 from 50.5 as non-manufacturers are curtailing purchases from their foreign suppliers.

    Employment also fell through the floor, down nearly 8 points to 43.9, the lowest reading since the very beginning of the expansion and one certain to deepen concern over the jobs market. Inventories understandably fell back and fewer purchasers reported delivery delays. Finally prices continue to show pressure, at 70.7 vs. 71.5. Perhaps prices will begin to recede in line with demand, which is of course the hope of the Federal Reserve.

    This is an alarming report that raises the question, like Friday's jobs data, whether the economy has already entered a recession. There was surprisingly limited initial reaction to the report, which however is likely to push down Treasury yields, the dollar, along with stocks


    No comments on the employment situation, huh Jlew?
    :(
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

    No comments on the employment situation, huh Jlew?
    :(

    where are your many colorful, link heavy posts when the market is up? you are like the media. only report bad news, ignore the good.


    like I said, I'm bearish right now. economy is coming out with bad news daily. recession is here. and guess what, this isn't the first time this has happened. so calm down, take your valium, and find a hobby, you need some distraction.
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    where are your many colorful, link heavy posts when the market is up? you are like the media. only report bad news, ignore the good.


    like I said, I'm bearish right now. economy is coming out with bad news daily. recession is here. and guess what, this isn't the first time this has happened. so calm down, take your valium, and find a hobby, you need some distraction.


    Look up three posts. I said "dow is up 150", what more do you want from me, huh?

    You are the one who was saying i'm an idiot for calling for recession 6 months ago, weren't you?

    Well?
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    Look up three posts. I said "dow is up 150", what more do you want from me, huh?

    You are the one who was saying i'm an idiot for calling for recession 6 months ago, weren't you?

    Well?

    drifty, I never called you an idiot ;) you called for a recession to happen 6 months ago. it didnt. its happening now.

    after this recession is over I'm calling for a rally. aren't I smart? :) :rolleyes:
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    drifty, I never called you an idiot ;) you called for a recession to happen 6 months ago. it didnt. its happening now.

    after this recession is over I'm calling for a rally. aren't I smart? :) :rolleyes:

    I think i actualy said over summer that i would expect the shit to really hit the fan "in the next few months" and in to next year.

    You can make me go dig up the posts if i have to, but i'm trying to illustrate here not that i'm some great savant or whatever, but that i am an honest person making honest and THOUGHTFUL analysis of what is happening ... and that i saw this coming back when everyone else was calling me a fucking fool for saying so.

    In fact, i was saying "there will be bail out" and "big inflation" and "recession" and "the dollar will start its fall" ... and i think i'm right on ALL of those counts ... bail out pending but in VERY real discussion right now.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    -360 on the Dow.

    Hold your nose, take the plunge.

    :D
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    -360 on the Dow.

    Hold your nose, take the plunge.

    :D


    why are you smiling?

    in order news....still 800 points off the low 2 weeks ago :rolleyes:
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    why are you smiling?

    in order news....still 800 points off the low 2 weeks ago :rolleyes:

    Which way is the trend pointing?

    You think that wasn't a reaction swing?
    You think we aren't back on the downside?

    ;)
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    is it a coincidence that you dont check the market on up days?

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080206/wall_street.html
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    is it a coincidence that you dont check the market on up days?

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080206/wall_street.html

    Give me a fucking break.

    This is just a small retracement of yesterdays fall.
    The chart clearly shows that the upswing over the past week or so was in all likelyhood just a reaction pullback to a DOWN TREND ... and that pullback ended two days ago.

    Today we are bumping our head on the top side of intraday pivots in a big way and are fighting to go back down as we speak.

    So, whatever boss.
    Bets on us closing today at a marginal gain to marginal loss. And then down we go again in the late week.

    Lets not forget that the news from yesterday was undeniably horrible.

    And the "productivity" numbers from this morning are marginal in the face of that ... and the market is proving this to be the case.

    As i type this, S&P is breaking through its morning floor to try and test more lows.
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    Give me a fucking break.

    This is just a small retracement of yesterdays fall.
    The chart clearly shows that the upswing over the past week or so was in all likelyhood just a reaction pullback to a DOWN TREND ... and that pullback ended two days ago.

    Today we are bumping our head on the top side of intraday pivots in a big way and are fighting to go back down as we speak.

    So, whatever boss.
    Bets on us closing today at a marginal gain to marginal loss. And then down we go again in the late week.

    Lets not forget that the news from yesterday was undeniably horrible.

    And the "productivity" numbers from this morning are marginal in the face of that ... and the market is proving this to be the case.

    As i type this, S&P is breaking through its morning floor to try and test more lows.

    undeniably horrible? thats a bit extreme. 2%?? with a bounce back today. your enthusiasm for a bad market/economy is starting to sicken me.
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    undeniably horrible? thats a bit extreme. 2%?? with a bounce back today. your enthusiasm for a bad market/economy is starting to sicken me.

    FOMC just announces it is basicaly powerless. :cool:

    2% what? The drop in the market?

    Yeah. It sure wasn't the continued rally people were expecting.

    And neither were the ISM Non-Mnf numbers.

    Need i repost what the economic calendar news source said:
    READ THIS wrote:
    In very unusual and troubling results [...]Employment also fell through the floor [...]This is an alarming report [...] Either way you slice it, the results are poor
    ...

    what part of that news service quote doesn't sound "undeniably horrible" to you?

    Do you still not understand that fundamental underlying conditions are abysmal right now?

    Further, recognizing that this entire slow down is precipitated by malinvestment on behalf of the banks themselves due to artificialy low interest rates...

    ... and also recognizing that these banks have ONLY BEGUN TO TAKE THEIR WRITEDOWNS ...

    and going even further to recognize that WHEN BANKS WRITE DOWN THEIR BOOKS, IT LOWERS THEIR 'RESERVES', AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPAIRS THEIR ABILITY TO LEND ... at a rate of about 9 to 1 ... for every dollar written off ... they are crippled in their lending capacity by NINE dollars ...

    ... and going even further to recognize that bank lending is the primary way which our economy seeks new investment and business growth ... since outright capital investment has long been a distant second to bank loan financing ...

    ...and taking the next step to recognize that the only way our stupid government knows how to deal with this untenable situation is to cut interest rates, lower the discount window, etc ...

    ... and noting that they have already significantly done so

    ... and taking in to account the EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF THE DOLLAR IN LIGHT OF ALL OF THIS ALREADY MASSIVE INFLATION ... and the war ... and this new Universal Health Care proposal ... and the babyboomers all retiring and needing Social Security ... and the bonds from the 1980s all coming due ... and oil producing nations wanting to go off the dollar ... and china threatening to use the fiscal "nuclear option" and trade back all its T-Bills ...

    ... and again, reminding you that the BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETE THEIR MASSIVE MASSIVE WRITEOFFS ...

    ... and again reminding you that the Fed will NECESSARILY HAVE TO LOWER RATES AND INFLATE AGAIN (or literaly risk the banks going insolvent and defaulting on their deposits, making the FDIC broke, and exposing the scandal)... and part of this will probalby also end up being OUTRIGHT BAILOUT TO THE TUNE OF BILLIONS AND BILLIONS ...

    ... and reminding you again that this again affects the dollar in a massively negative way...

    HOW CAN YOU SIT BACK AND PAINT THIS RIDICULOUSLY ROSEY PICTURE ????

    Bottom line,
    this entire thing was caused by a viscious cycle of unmanageably low interest rates, feeding bank mal-investment and causing inflation, causing a crash, and then retriggering low rates again and more massive inflation ... at some point THE BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT.

    ALL THE CARDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THIS MARKET!


    BTW - The market is now DOWN FOR THE DAY (by the same lousy marginal amount that it was up earlier), no comment, huh? And how about this FOMC announcement that comes after what was what appears to be an emergency closed door meeting with Bernanke (i didn't see it on the schedule until late yesterday, did you?) ...
    :rolleyes:
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    no comment? I tell it like it is, postive or negative.
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    jlew24asu wrote:
    no comment? I tell it like it is, postive or negative.

    So how is it today?
    What does it mean that we were down 370 yesterday, and then the little piddly rally today faded without fanfare and then went negative on more bad press?

    Tell it like it is, please.

    :D
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • Character Zero
    Character Zero Posts: 96
    mkcaps wrote:
    My kids are taking all their money out of their bank today...

    I wish had money to take out of the bank...
    I was taught a month ago to bide my time and take it slow, but then I learned just yesterday to rush and never waste a day. Now I'm convinced the whole day long that all I've learned is always wrong. Things are true that I forget, but no one taught that to me yet
  • jlew24asu
    jlew24asu Posts: 10,118
    DriftingByTheStorm wrote:
    So how is it today?
    What does it mean that we were down 370 yesterday, and then the little piddly rally today faded without fanfare and then went negative on more bad press?

    Tell it like it is, please.

    :D

    like i've been saying, its bad. but you seem to be cheering for the dow to fall 2000 points. but its not.

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