atta boy. I knew you had it in ya. and yes I know how you feel about the fed but the market would be down 650 points had they not cut this morning. its a crazy game we play.
650 is an understatement. I was thinking more like 1100!
Yeah.
The fed "did it's job" ... now we are faced witht he unfortunate, "what's next?"
Interested to see what existing home sales say on Thursday ... could be a major downer.
:fingers crossed:
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I still view this is a good thing. If you aren't in debt you're doing really well right now because all the bank promotions in the world are coming down in the next few months you can take advantage of. They only people really screwed are those retiring right now everything else will equalize. This is simply what happens when people try to "get rich quick."
My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
Not me! Moved everything into gov't bonds in February.. this is good news for me. Just have to time my return.
Its seems there will be a snowball effect - even after we hit bottom - there will be the panic selling and the unreported losses being realized as businesses give up...
So if there was a surprise cut Monday, how does that effect next week's expected rate cut? Has it been priced in and what do people expect it will be? How could the fed possibly have enough information to make a decision?
So if there was a surprise cut Monday, how does that effect next week's expected rate cut? Has it been priced in and what do people expect it will be? How could the fed possibly have enough information to make a decision?
seems the futures were stopped out a good three or four times last night.
That means losses were so bad the SEC stopped all trading!
YIKES.
Markets expecting BIG DROP ON OPEN here.
:fingers crossed for everyone's 401ks:
OMFG.
:eek:
:eek: :eek:
Erin Burnet: "ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT MARKET DAYS EVER"
This is HISTORY, folks!
Unless you're retiring in the next few years, a big drop in the market is good for 401(k)'s and IRA's. You'll be buying the same funds you've been buying, but now those funds, and the underlying stocks, are on sale. There's no need to panic.
only mr doom and gloom can dwell on something negative in the face of one of the greatest rallys in recent memory. pity.
I did say, "Was that a bottom?" followed by ":D"
Which in my own quirky little way was acknowledgement and a mild level of comfort in the fact of this rally\"bottom".
You know damn well though, as you admitted above, that this was by-and-large a FABRICATED rally. The market swallowing their "unexpected" *emergency* rate cut, AND swallowing their desert ... the .50 they get at the planned meeting.
But why do they get it? Because they know they "deserve" it. Right? Like the spoiled little kid that throws the tantrum knowing it gets the candy?
Hey i don't blame the market ... it is just participating in a viscious circle of familial violence. The only thing it knows ... something it was taught by its abusive father ... the Federal Reserve ... the creature that created "the market" ... or at least ADOPTED it ... but old dad just kept giving Junior more allowance than it he deserved, knew what to legitimately do with, and which he eventualy became corrputed by. Junior starting getting involved with shady business because that kind of risk is easy to take when the money comes easy to you in the first place ... until the day you get busted ...
... of course dad only can take so much of the blame, even if he started it.
What the hell am i getting at?
Fuck. Basicaly i'm glad there is a rally, but it is an illusion, and even the floor traders were on CNBC today saying, "a bottom? I mean, i don't think its ... no ... i think we will see some more movement, if that's what your asking" ... oblique type references to the obvious, "har har ... of COURSE this isn't it ... hang on to your hat!"
I'm still not sure you understand what we are ABOUT to get in to here. We are 100 miles inland and a category five JUST hit the coast line, and you are saying, "Relax ... this is the nicest breeze we've had in a while!"
Yeah. It was a great rally ... which came AFTER one of the biggest down days on the books ... and like i said, THIS is JUST THE BEGINNING!
Remember September? Remember how relatively calm that was ... and then it picked back up again a month later?
This thing is going in waves of market tolerance and public awareness. Nothing is changed under the surface. It is still an ugly ugly ugly credit driven NIGHTMARE! And someone keeps throwing stitches at a hemmorage about to explode!
I'm not being alarmist, or fearmonger ... i think the events of recent weeks, if anything, PROVE what i have been screaming since Summer.
If we somehow (by FUCKING MAGIC) manage to get out of this without serious compound fractures and head injuries everywhere ... well i hope there is room for me in that naive fantasy ...
... the reality is this is going to get brutal come 2nd and 3rd quarter, and 2009 through 2010 ... we are engineering one of the biggest busts in history.
I respect your opinion a lot, Jlew, but i think your view is myopic and obtuse all at once.
I hope we don't get to the point of bread lines, food rations, and gasoline by first letter of your last name days ... and maybe THAT is fearmongering ... but we sure aren't about to go back to even 12500 on the Dow and just sit there fat and happy for three years.
The markets will tumble and roil violently for months (maybe years) ... and lots and lots of shit will hit the fan.
The dollar will take it long and take it hard.
No rate cut or otherwise, it will take it in the ass.
Government bailout = massive massive massive inflation.
Newest fearmonger prediction:
US Dollar Index hits 69 by the 4th of July.
I hope i'm wrong.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I guess everyone is too focused on Super Tuesday to notice that it is TERRIBLE TUESDAY for the stock market.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing news this morning is probably the straw that broke the camels back, imho.
In very unusual and troubling results, the ISM's non-manufacturing business activity index plunged to 41.9 in January from 54.4 in December.This is the most extreme move on record and the lowest reading since the 2001 recession. The ISM moved up the time of the report to 8:55 a.m. ET, perhaps reflecting the enormous move or, according to this morning's chatter in the financial markets, because an ISM representative publicly referred to the results yesterday.
The report also marks the debut of a composite index, which came in not much better at 44.6. Composite indexes have the virtue of reducing volatility, though in essence they tend to squeeze together forward indicators, such as new orders, with lagging indicators, such as production. Either way you slice it, the results are poor.
New orders, arguably the report's most important reading headline or otherwise, plunged to 43.5 from 53.9 -- again the lowest reading since the recession.[/g] Backlogs fell 3 points to 46.0 in more bad news. Export orders however are still above water, up 2 points to 52.0 and reflecting strong global demand and the competitive advantage of a weak currency. But import orders show the weakness in the nation's economy, down to 41.5 from 50.5 as non-manufacturers are curtailing purchases from their foreign suppliers.
Employment also fell through the floor, down nearly 8 points to 43.9, the lowest reading since the very beginning of the expansion and one certain to deepen concern over the jobs market. Inventories understandably fell back and fewer purchasers reported delivery delays. Finally prices continue to show pressure, at 70.7 vs. 71.5. Perhaps prices will begin to recede in line with demand, which is of course the hope of the Federal Reserve.
This is an alarming report that raises the question, like Friday's jobs data, whether the economy has already entered a recession. There was surprisingly limited initial reaction to the report, which however is likely to push down Treasury yields, the dollar, along with stocks
No comments on the employment situation, huh Jlew?
:(
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
No comments on the employment situation, huh Jlew?
:(
where are your many colorful, link heavy posts when the market is up? you are like the media. only report bad news, ignore the good.
like I said, I'm bearish right now. economy is coming out with bad news daily. recession is here. and guess what, this isn't the first time this has happened. so calm down, take your valium, and find a hobby, you need some distraction.
where are your many colorful, link heavy posts when the market is up? you are like the media. only report bad news, ignore the good.
like I said, I'm bearish right now. economy is coming out with bad news daily. recession is here. and guess what, this isn't the first time this has happened. so calm down, take your valium, and find a hobby, you need some distraction.
Look up three posts. I said "dow is up 150", what more do you want from me, huh?
You are the one who was saying i'm an idiot for calling for recession 6 months ago, weren't you?
Well?
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
drifty, I never called you an idiot you called for a recession to happen 6 months ago. it didnt. its happening now.
after this recession is over I'm calling for a rally. aren't I smart? :rolleyes:
I think i actualy said over summer that i would expect the shit to really hit the fan "in the next few months" and in to next year.
You can make me go dig up the posts if i have to, but i'm trying to illustrate here not that i'm some great savant or whatever, but that i am an honest person making honest and THOUGHTFUL analysis of what is happening ... and that i saw this coming back when everyone else was calling me a fucking fool for saying so.
In fact, i was saying "there will be bail out" and "big inflation" and "recession" and "the dollar will start its fall" ... and i think i'm right on ALL of those counts ... bail out pending but in VERY real discussion right now.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Comments
650 is an understatement. I was thinking more like 1100!
Yeah.
The fed "did it's job" ... now we are faced witht he unfortunate, "what's next?"
Interested to see what existing home sales say on Thursday ... could be a major downer.
:fingers crossed:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
well you were way off
yes that thursday # will be big. lets hope its not as bad as expected.
I still view this is a good thing. If you aren't in debt you're doing really well right now because all the bank promotions in the world are coming down in the next few months you can take advantage of. They only people really screwed are those retiring right now everything else will equalize. This is simply what happens when people try to "get rich quick."
Not me! Moved everything into gov't bonds in February.. this is good news for me. Just have to time my return.
Its seems there will be a snowball effect - even after we hit bottom - there will be the panic selling and the unreported losses being realized as businesses give up...
how low can it go?
So, today we get the blow out we were gonna see yesterday.
:rolleyes:
Ah we're fucked.
:eek:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I hope these last 2 days have taught you something.
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?
Yup.
S&P tested a new low earlier though.
All i can keep thinking now is, WTF is gonna happen with housing #s tomorrow
Oh.
And Dee Snider is on the NYSE exchange floor and with Dylan on CNBC!?!
WTF
Oh and 1 more thing,
LOTS of talk now about FULL ON HOUSING BAILOUT.
NOT GOOD!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
only mr doom and gloom can dwell on something negative in the face of one of the greatest rallys in recent memory. pity.
You got to spend it all
the market is expecting a 50 basis point cut.
http://clevelandfed.org/research/Policy/fedfunds/index.cfm
I would say todays rally priced that in.
Would you say that the rate cut after the next is also priced into the market?
You got to spend it all
no, the market is not expecting a rate cut after that. at least as of today. (last I checked it was a 30% possibility)
IMO it would not be wise to do so even if the market wants it.
Unless you're retiring in the next few years, a big drop in the market is good for 401(k)'s and IRA's. You'll be buying the same funds you've been buying, but now those funds, and the underlying stocks, are on sale. There's no need to panic.
Which in my own quirky little way was acknowledgement and a mild level of comfort in the fact of this rally\"bottom".
You know damn well though, as you admitted above, that this was by-and-large a FABRICATED rally. The market swallowing their "unexpected" *emergency* rate cut, AND swallowing their desert ... the .50 they get at the planned meeting.
But why do they get it? Because they know they "deserve" it. Right? Like the spoiled little kid that throws the tantrum knowing it gets the candy?
Hey i don't blame the market ... it is just participating in a viscious circle of familial violence. The only thing it knows ... something it was taught by its abusive father ... the Federal Reserve ... the creature that created "the market" ... or at least ADOPTED it ... but old dad just kept giving Junior more allowance than it he deserved, knew what to legitimately do with, and which he eventualy became corrputed by. Junior starting getting involved with shady business because that kind of risk is easy to take when the money comes easy to you in the first place ... until the day you get busted ...
... of course dad only can take so much of the blame, even if he started it.
What the hell am i getting at?
Fuck. Basicaly i'm glad there is a rally, but it is an illusion, and even the floor traders were on CNBC today saying, "a bottom? I mean, i don't think its ... no ... i think we will see some more movement, if that's what your asking" ... oblique type references to the obvious, "har har ... of COURSE this isn't it ... hang on to your hat!"
I'm still not sure you understand what we are ABOUT to get in to here. We are 100 miles inland and a category five JUST hit the coast line, and you are saying, "Relax ... this is the nicest breeze we've had in a while!"
Yeah. It was a great rally ... which came AFTER one of the biggest down days on the books ... and like i said, THIS is JUST THE BEGINNING!
Remember September? Remember how relatively calm that was ... and then it picked back up again a month later?
This thing is going in waves of market tolerance and public awareness. Nothing is changed under the surface. It is still an ugly ugly ugly credit driven NIGHTMARE! And someone keeps throwing stitches at a hemmorage about to explode!
I'm not being alarmist, or fearmonger ... i think the events of recent weeks, if anything, PROVE what i have been screaming since Summer.
If we somehow (by FUCKING MAGIC) manage to get out of this without serious compound fractures and head injuries everywhere ... well i hope there is room for me in that naive fantasy ...
... the reality is this is going to get brutal come 2nd and 3rd quarter, and 2009 through 2010 ... we are engineering one of the biggest busts in history.
Here is a headline that says a few things about reality:
The US Federal Reserve came under sustained attack from some of the world's most powerful and influential economic figures last night for its failure to prevent the build-up of financial stresses that threaten a severe world downturn.
I respect your opinion a lot, Jlew, but i think your view is myopic and obtuse all at once.
I hope we don't get to the point of bread lines, food rations, and gasoline by first letter of your last name days ... and maybe THAT is fearmongering ... but we sure aren't about to go back to even 12500 on the Dow and just sit there fat and happy for three years.
The markets will tumble and roil violently for months (maybe years) ... and lots and lots of shit will hit the fan.
The dollar will take it long and take it hard.
No rate cut or otherwise, it will take it in the ass.
Government bailout = massive massive massive inflation.
Newest fearmonger prediction:
US Dollar Index hits 69 by the 4th of July.
I hope i'm wrong.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
that wasn't a rally, just a correction in the other direction...
stil got lotza falling to do
Another rocky start to another rocky week.
:(
New home sales coming in a good few points below consensus, and INVENTORIES RISING (up to 9.6 months from 9.3 months)
:(
We have FOMC meetings tomorrow, durable goods orders, and then on Wednesday MORE FED FUN! We get another rate cut decision! Woo hoo!
Finding it hard to see a silver lining here.
Guess the lining is that the new homes data slump has yet to send us spiraling down ... just sputtering.
hmm.
:cool:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Dow about to close up 150 points.
YIPPEE!
WE'RE SAVED!
The market thinks we put in a double bottom last week and its in a Rally!
YAY YAY YAY!
I can't wait to see how fast the Fed can fuck it all up.
T minus three days.
There is your optomism, buddy.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Holy shit!
RECESSION!
ISM number FUCKING SUCKED!
Jlew, whats going on here?
That number is HIGHLY recessionary, is it not?
:(
I just woke up.
I've been having sleep schedule problems. :(
Missed some good moves today.
ALthough NONE of it is "good" for the health of our economy.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
The ISM Non-Manufacturing news this morning is probably the straw that broke the camels back, imho.
In very unusual and troubling results, the ISM's non-manufacturing business activity index plunged to 41.9 in January from 54.4 in December. This is the most extreme move on record and the lowest reading since the 2001 recession. The ISM moved up the time of the report to 8:55 a.m. ET, perhaps reflecting the enormous move or, according to this morning's chatter in the financial markets, because an ISM representative publicly referred to the results yesterday.
The report also marks the debut of a composite index, which came in not much better at 44.6. Composite indexes have the virtue of reducing volatility, though in essence they tend to squeeze together forward indicators, such as new orders, with lagging indicators, such as production. Either way you slice it, the results are poor.
New orders, arguably the report's most important reading headline or otherwise, plunged to 43.5 from 53.9 -- again the lowest reading since the recession.[/g] Backlogs fell 3 points to 46.0 in more bad news. Export orders however are still above water, up 2 points to 52.0 and reflecting strong global demand and the competitive advantage of a weak currency. But import orders show the weakness in the nation's economy, down to 41.5 from 50.5 as non-manufacturers are curtailing purchases from their foreign suppliers.
Employment also fell through the floor, down nearly 8 points to 43.9, the lowest reading since the very beginning of the expansion and one certain to deepen concern over the jobs market. Inventories understandably fell back and fewer purchasers reported delivery delays. Finally prices continue to show pressure, at 70.7 vs. 71.5. Perhaps prices will begin to recede in line with demand, which is of course the hope of the Federal Reserve.
This is an alarming report that raises the question, like Friday's jobs data, whether the economy has already entered a recession. There was surprisingly limited initial reaction to the report, which however is likely to push down Treasury yields, the dollar, along with stocks
No comments on the employment situation, huh Jlew?
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
where are your many colorful, link heavy posts when the market is up? you are like the media. only report bad news, ignore the good.
like I said, I'm bearish right now. economy is coming out with bad news daily. recession is here. and guess what, this isn't the first time this has happened. so calm down, take your valium, and find a hobby, you need some distraction.
Look up three posts. I said "dow is up 150", what more do you want from me, huh?
You are the one who was saying i'm an idiot for calling for recession 6 months ago, weren't you?
Well?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
drifty, I never called you an idiot
after this recession is over I'm calling for a rally. aren't I smart?
I think i actualy said over summer that i would expect the shit to really hit the fan "in the next few months" and in to next year.
You can make me go dig up the posts if i have to, but i'm trying to illustrate here not that i'm some great savant or whatever, but that i am an honest person making honest and THOUGHTFUL analysis of what is happening ... and that i saw this coming back when everyone else was calling me a fucking fool for saying so.
In fact, i was saying "there will be bail out" and "big inflation" and "recession" and "the dollar will start its fall" ... and i think i'm right on ALL of those counts ... bail out pending but in VERY real discussion right now.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Hold your nose, take the plunge.
If I opened it now would you not understand?