Get some scrap transmissions and extract the platinum, likewise, get some PCBs and extract the gold leads.
I would, but I'm lazy.
I necessarily have the passion for writing this, and you have the passion for condemning me; both of us are equally fools, equally the toys of destiny. Your nature is to do harm, mine is to love truth, and to make it public in spite of you. - Voltaire
maybe now is a good time to take a tax loss and start from nil?
:(
Well, that is definitely a consideration. If you were getting out of the market just to get out, I remain convinced that would be the wrong move. But if you're using the proceeds to pay down expensive credit card debt, that may be a really good move. I don't know what your portfolio looks like, but say the market is just average this year and you see a 10% increase in value. If at the same time you're carrying a big credit card debt at 19% you're losing money. So you just might be better off paying that down and starting over. Plus, as you mentioned you'll realize a capital loss to use against your earnings which will be nice when tax time comes. Tough choices for sure.
"I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
Well, that is definitely a consideration. If you were getting out of the market just to get out, I remain convinced that would be the wrong move. But if you're using the proceeds to pay down expensive credit card debt, that may be a really good move. I don't know what your portfolio looks like, but say the market is just average this year and you see a 10% increase in value. If at the same time you're carrying a big credit card debt at 19% you're losing money. So you just might be better off paying that down and starting over. Plus, as you mentioned you'll realize a capital loss to use against your earnings which will be nice when tax time comes. Tough choices for sure.
Solid advice. In general, you have no business investing if you have consumer debt.
The only people we should try to get even with...
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
Solid advice. In general, you have no business investing if you have consumer debt.
yeah.
i dunno though.
they teach you all about "leverage" in business classes,
and recommend your business be at least 50% "invested" in debt ...
i'm not about to try to rationalize consumer credit as "debt investment",
but one could argue that cashing out 20k in stock to pay for 10K of debt (i'd probably loose about 6 or 7k to taxes on cash out, like i said, i have an EXTREMELY low pennys-on-the-dollar cost basis for a lot of my stocks) ... is a poor move.
Even if that 20K is only getting me 500-1000 a year in capital appreciation and dividends, the 10k debt is only costing me $50 a month in interest (i run at 7.99% interest on my card) ...
I'm still running at -100 to +400 dollars a year on that ...
and if i sell i've just lost ALL potential upside on my stock and any income.
:(
whose really to say?
Jeff?
anyone?
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Ok.
With out sounding like a total freak,
the market has me scared shitless right now.
I don't know what is going to happen. no one does.
but my gut just isn't groovin' on this shit.
I am 90% confident in 1 thing ... when i wake up today (okay, it's 5 am and i am still up from yesterday) ... i am most likely going to sell my stock. all of it.
yes ... all of it.
i can't take it.
it's up. it's down.
cramer says we're all gonna die.
the fed throws money at us.
the dollar goes down.
iran is the devil.
wall mart sucks.
i don't care.
i don't want to think about it.
DOES ANYONE OWN GOLD?
I am most likely going to start digging in to it heavy.
i don't know where to start.
i like the south american shit here: http://www.steinbergs.com/
the stuff from the 1700's
it speaks to my inner gold lover.
ok.
so maybe i should be practical and buy the new buffalo US mint coins?
i dunno.
Will they try to confiscate it when the economy tanks?
Anyone?
Ok.
so i erased and de-emotionalized a lot of my original post (yes the above is de-emotionalized, believe it) ...
i need a less crazy person to give me a barometric indicator?
or i could probably just use some sleep.
let me go work on that.
ooh but looking at old gold coins is SO MUCH FUN.
why didn't i start doing this years ago?
my portfolio in stock is still pretty much what it was ....
which is to say, unimpressive at best.
:(
i've been saying that gold is the best investment for years now. i live in an area where gold can be found in almost every wash (dry stream) or where ever water flows and there's always a place to sell it. land is also a good investment. as long as the population grows; you'll never lose money on land.
here's my opinion:
as the sea level rises; people will have to relocate. most of the population lives near water. this is going to cause an economic crash. the indian islands are needing to evacuate as we speak and towns in alaska are currently being relocated. as the waters rise; sewage is mixed with the water making the area toxic. if you own land you'll be able to set your price as these people will need somewhere to go.
as for gold; it's easy to sell and hard to trace. old coins are nice but won't hold value in an economic collapse. they're only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. during hard times; you won't find someone to pay you say $100 for an old dime.
you're a visionary if you see what's coming. manufacturing will have to stop to be relocated crushing the market. those who live in low areas will have to leave their homes. let's face it; who's going to buy a house that's under water? same for businesses. a $2 million building in manhattan is worthless even if there's only an inch of water in it.
gold and land have always been the best investments.
Shares in Bank of America slumped yesterday after it revealed a worse than expected plunge in third-quarter profits on the back of nearly $4 billion (£1.96 billion) worth of writedowns and trading losses.
JPMorgan’s retail bank, which operates under the Chase brand, saw profits fall 14 per cent to $2.21 billion as weakening house prices prompted a sixfold increase in credit loss provisions to $680 million.
On the same day, Washington Mutual, America’s third-biggest mortgage lender, announced that its third-quarter profits fell by more than two thirds, from $748 million to $210 million.
Etrade Financial, the online brokerage, added to the carnage on Wednesday as it increased provisions for loan losses to $187 million in the third quarter, from $30 million in the previous three months. The group also wrote down its securities portfolio by $197 million, taking it to an overall loss of $58 million, compared to a $153 million profit the year before.
wow you are becoming quite the fear monger these days. markets are designed to go up and down you Momo. do you know what yesterday was? anniversary of black monday. dow dropped over 500 points or more then 25%. in a single day!
wow you are becoming quite the fear monger these days. markets are designed to go up and down you Momo. do you know what yesterday was? anniversary of black monday. dow dropped over 500 points or more then 25%. in a single day!
I cant imagine the mass hysteria you would have been in, had you been older enough to remember that day.
this could certainly happen again. the US economy is probably headed for a recession in the next 12-16 months. but guess what, thats ok.
the unimaginable crash of 87 lead to the greatest bull run in the history of the stock market. markets fluctuate, play it how you see it. good luck
I watched an interview with Greenspan (see last two minutes, on him vs. bernake) where he blatantly states that YOU CANT LOWER INTEREST RATES WITHOUT PUTTING INFLATIONARY PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR ANYMORE ... that is an out and out admission that the dollar is treading water and gasping for air ... that when the next downturn comes, the fed will be all but powerless to pull the strings and keep the game a float ...
like you said, play it how you see it,
but you aren't even addressing this SIV scandal, and it is going to cost the industry and YOU and ME BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS ... i mean ... they won't even say how much, but it's gonna be like $500 billion or something HUGE!
The ramifications of such a financial collapse rightnow along with the inability of the fed to act "responsibly" by cutting rates -- do to the very REAL fear that such rate cutting would cause "INFLATIONARY PRESSURE" ... read post-war german inflationary disaster ...
that confluence of circumstances has me VERY WORRIED!
I hope you are right, and that it is just a "blip" or a mid-term "recession", but to me it looks like we are teetering very near the edge of an out-and-out DEPRESSION and possibly near-term ... dare i say it ... dollar collapse.
Also,
your argument contains the assumption that everything is peachy keen DESPITE a pending "black monday" type event. All because, unimaginable fortune came after.
Were you invested at that time? Did you just leave your money in and let it dwindle to nothing?
Seems from what I have read about history is that despite the lies they tell you about how everything is fine in a collapse, because it gets better later is ABSOLUTE RUBBISH. The only people who seem to make it out alive are the assholes who caused the collapse and get bailed out by the Fed, or they helped design the crash (like a Rockerfeller or a Morgan) and they profiteered on the crash by SELLING BEFORE THEY STARTED THE RUN, and then BOUGHT AFTER THE CRASH ... but NOT SITTING TIGHT ON THEIR INVESTMENTS THROUGH THE CRASH.
Is that what you are advocating?
Leaving your money in to get trampled in the sell off?
What the fuck sense does that make! ?! !
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
I watched an interview with Greenspan (see last two minutes, on him vs. bernake) where he blatantly states that YOU CANT LOWER INTEREST RATES WITHOUT PUTTING INFLATIONARY PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR ANYMORE ... that is an out and out admission that the dollar is treading water and gasping for air ... that when the next downturn comes, the fed will be all but powerless to pull the strings and keep the game a float ...
traders have already priced in a 100% chance the fed will cut rates again at their next meeting. does this add INFLATIONARY PRESSURE !!!!!!!!. yes it does. but so far, inflation has been in check.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2.08% 2.42% 2.78% 2.57% 2.69% 2.69% 2.36% 1.97% 2.76%
and their are huge advantages as well as disadvantages of a weak dollar. the world has been living off america spending money for the past 10-20 years. that is now reversing.
like you said, play it how you see it,
but you aren't even addressing this SIV scandal, and it is going to cost the industry and YOU and ME BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS ... i mean ... they won't even say how much, but it's gonna be like $500 billion or something HUGE!
here you go again. :rolleyes: maybe its trillions maybe quadrillions!! run for the hills!!!
l
The ramifications of such a financial collapse rightnow along with the inability of the fed to act "responsibly" by cutting rates -- do to the very REAL fear that such rate cutting would cause "INFLATIONARY PRESSURE" ... read post-war german inflationary disaster ...
that confluence of circumstances has me VERY WORRIED!
I hope you are right, and that it is just a "blip" or a mid-term "recession", but to me it looks like we are teetering very near the edge of an out-and-out DEPRESSION and possibly near-term ... dare i say it ... dollar collapse.
market was down almost 400 points yesterday on a varied of concerns, bad earnings, oil at $90 bucks a barrel, credit worries. yet technology was UP. just look at google for example..it was up over $5 bucks or 1.75% when the market was down 2.5%.
its going to be a stock pickers market for awhile. time to get back to basics. invest in companies with solid earnings, good growth.
your dooms day senario is a bit much. DEPRESSION!!!!!! you say? are we all going to be waiting in line for bread and water. relax.
Also,
your argument contains the assumption that everything is peachy keen DESPITE a pending "black monday" type event. All because, unimaginable fortune came after.
no I said it was an unimaginable decline in one day. and everything wont be peachy after a stock market decline of anything even close to 1987. people thought the stock market was going to go to zero back then. all I'm saying is look what happen afterword........largest stock market boom in the history of the markets.
Seems from what I have read about history is that despite the lies they tell you about how everything is fine in a collapse, because it gets better later is ABSOLUTE RUBBISH.
love your use of bold. you are the only one who knows anything about this right? I can hold my own, I do it for a living.
what history books are you reading?? of course things wont be fine immediately after a collapse. thats not what I'm saying.
here you can clearly see where the stock market went after the crash of 87
The only people who seem to make it out alive are the assholes who caused the collapse and get bailed out by the Fed, or they helped design the crash (like a Rockerfeller or a Morgan) and they profiteered on the crash by SELLING BEFORE THEY STARTED THE RUN, and then BOUGHT AFTER THE CRASH ... but NOT SITTING TIGHT ON THEIR INVESTMENTS THROUGH THE CRASH.
yup, and george bush's cousin flew the planes in the WTC on sept 11 on direct orders form bush.
do you live off you investments? do you need to make money from them to eat? pay mortgage? doubtful. being in your mid 20s, you can ride out any market collapse that happens in the next 10 years and still come out well ahead by the time you are ready to retire.
It must suck to live in fear of so many things. life's not so bad buddy.
Anyone factoring the war into all this (and the insane spending therein)?
Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
Jlew.
I respect your financial opinions.
I know you are in the industry.
That is why i explicitly solicity your opinion on occasion.
You are right, inflation is "under control" right now, but when the longstanding head of the fed says rate cuts can't again happen like they did in the post-911 era, that has me concerned.
Your proposition seems to be:
"There is very little upside right now, and the markets are in at least a slow downturn. The downside risk is increasing. If you leave your money in the market right now you ARE probably going to lose some money. But that shouldn't matter to you, because you probably don't NEED that money to LIVE right now."
All i am saying is
"If you have NOTHING to gain in the short OR medium turn ... NOTHING, i mean, what, maybe the dow hits 16000, doubtful, but either way you ain't going up more than 10% even but the downside could be HUGE ... it could ... and at the very least it is going to be noticable and SUSTAINED ... YOU CAN RECOGNIZE THAT NOW AND SELL ... you can AVOID TAKING AN UNNECESSARY LOSS ... in the face of bad news and the storm on the horizon which promises NOTHING GOOD, WHY WOULD YOU HOLD ON?"
THAT is what i'm getting at.
The bad outweighs the good, even if it iS NOT catastrophic, it looks like a shit storm, and if you could get out before dollars turn to pennies, why the hell wouldn't you?
Why wouldn't you ditch the stocks and take a CD or something?
You talk about markets recovering from crashes, thats great. Of course the people will continue to work and seek to live if they can ... and that will always drive wealth back up ... but the people who lost their money in those crashes ... THEY LOST THEIR MONEY ... it is cut and dry... there is a longstanding FALSE MYTH propogated by the industry that says if you just leave your money in the market, everything will be gravvy.
I dunno. I profess that plenty of people know first hand that is bullshit.
If you are caught with your pants down and your $50 a share stock becomes worth $00.78 a share, you HAVE NO CHOICE, yes you will ride it out and pray that 10 years from now it is back to at least $30 a share or something ... BUT THINK OF WHAT YOU COULD HAVE DONE WITH THAT CASH HAD YOU SOLD AT $45 or $40 or $37 ... but not waited for the bottom to fall out and be STUCK for years and years.
The people who made money in those crashes are, like i said, the people that had inside information, or were smart enough otherwise to get out ... and then when the bottom fell out they scooped up bargain stocks for pennies on the hundreds.
So again, if we know the market is going down, and NOT UP, why wouldn't we move our money to something that is going to MAKE money, like at LEAST a certificate of deposit, perhaps PHYSICAL GOLD or say rental property in depressed markets where you can buy cheaply but still rent and make profit?
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
also, once more, i IMPLORE people to go and read up on this "SIV Scandal" ... "They" are saying it has the potential to DWARF THE S&L SCANDAL.
Does that have no one who lived through the 80's concerned? That was HUGE, CATASTROPHIC AND PROLONGED.
When CLINTON got in to office, HE was still dealing with bail out funds for the S&Ls. 1.8 trillion is the overall estimate of what it cost the US citizen to bail out the S&Ls.
You want to see 2 Trillion look like a drop in the bucket, and imagine what this new "scandal" has the potential for?
It ain't pretty at all.
Basicaly it sounds like the whole, for every 1 dollar the bank gets in deposits, they loan out 10, but for that 1 dollar that is "on deposit", they actually "invest" .98 cents of it and keep only $.02 in the house to cover loans ... well i believe it is that $0.98 that is tangled up in this SIV fiasco ... they are off the balance sheet, and that is never good for starters ... but they are investments that are riddled with bad subprime debt, and the investors who stand to claim this money are now in line to cash out ... but there is NO CASH, ONLY BAD DEBT. LOTS AND LOTS OF BAD DEBT. $500 BILLION WORTH at least.
:(
And NOONE here will even comment on it.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
your #46 post is much more accurate then the doomsday scenario you often portray.
it might be wise to pull out of stocks for a year or 2 and come back in later. but I do not see a huge downturn. (similar to 87). the stock market would need to drop about 3500 points in terms of todays dow price. I dont see that happening.
just think of the possible good things that can happen in the next 12-18 months. bush will leave office, peace might happen in the middle east, price of oil could come back down (maybe 30+ dollars from current prices) manufacturing could increase due to weak dollar, housing market will eventually recover. bad loans and credits problems will correct themselves.
I would pull out of financial stocks and go with tech stocks right now. If you enjoy investing and stock market movements as much as I do, do some homework on select stocks and sectors. there is good money to be made. and dare I say it, watch CNBC...they have the best stock market propaganda on tv
this is also some great info regarding economic indicators....
THis is a post taken from an investment forum (I posted a link to it in the "Who really runs the world" thread):
Total Derivatives -- globally: (NOTE: these are a "Notional Value of Leverage")
Here are global statistical estimates from THE BANK OF INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, for the following dates:
June of 2007, the Notional Value of Leverage on Debts from the global Derivates Market was $400 TRILLION dollars, (from the Shepherd Investment Strategist newsletter).
By the first week of September, BIS estimates globally increased to $600 TRILLION, (statistics quoted in the Prudent Squirrel newsletter, Sept. 8, 07).
OOPS! According to the BIS, the ENTIRE WORLD GDP is ROUGHLY ONLY 50 TRILLION A Year. That is global estimated true market value. ??????
To put this into perspective, these notional leveraged amounts of derivative market $$$ are about 12 times the total amount of the entire globe's GDP!!!!!!
Here's a comparison between 1990 and 2007:
In 1990, the Derivatives Market was around $20 Trillion in size.
2007, it is estimated to exceed $600 Trillion!
Within a few months, (June to end of September, 2007), the BIS global estimate jumped from $400 Trillion up to $600 Trillion! How does that happen?
The DREADED "T" Word:
As In, TRILLION, as in $000000000000 and I notice the media doesn’t like to use it! (In regards to the SIV / CDO debacle)
Can anyone confirm/deny or explain the stats above? Answer the bolded question?
Assuming there wasn't a problem with the BIS estimates, how does that happen? HOw does anything valued in hundreds of trillions increase 50% in four months? Wouldn't the relationship between the global gdp and this enormous $600 trillion dollar figure point to a seriously overvalued market? And should that not lead to a massive downturn at some point in the near future? Is this SIV bailout delaying this and making it worse? questions questions....
Ok...I've mentioned a couple times that I don't know a whole lot about economics, so I might be a total bumbling fool to have never heard of the BIS...but I just read the wiki page on them. wow....go figure. An organization comprised of the international heads of 55 central banking agencies, with reputed nazi ties and those pesky "conspiracy theorists" criticizing them....
Can anyone confirm/deny or explain the stats above? Answer the bolded question?
Assuming there wasn't a problem with the BIS estimates, how does that happen? HOw does anything valued in hundreds of trillions increase 50% in four months? Wouldn't the relationship between the global gdp and this enormous $600 trillion dollar figure point to a seriously overvalued market? And should that not lead to a massive downturn at some point in the near future? Is this SIV bailout delaying this and making it worse? questions questions....
Ok...I've mentioned a couple times that I don't know a whole lot about economics, so I might be a total bumbling fool to have never heard of the BIS...but I just read the wiki page on them. wow....go figure. An organization comprised of the international heads of 55 central banking agencies, with reputed nazi ties and those pesky "conspiracy theorists" criticizing them....
my guess is probably inflated home/property prices.
although these numbers are based on global estimates. that is one complex animal.
Can anyone confirm/deny or explain the stats above? Answer the bolded question?
Man i have no fucking idea, but that is scary and sketchy.
Perhaps it COULD be related to off balance sheet investments (like this SIV thing) that may not get reported (i don't know how this shit works, i don't think many or any people do, regarding bank finance reporting and international statistics regulation) to the international agencies unless they are written off.
In other words, it COULD be (no idea if it IS) that the 200billion is BAD debt that was off balance sheet and therefore hidden from statistics ... but once it was "realized" by the banks as write offs it became a statistic.
But man, i have no idea, and i highly doubt banks wrote off anywhere near that or we'd be hearing a LOT more about it in the news.
I CAN tell you the answer to your other question, "is the SIV bailout just delaying a serious downturn?" ... the answer is YES YES YES YES YES.
That is the point of the bailout.
If the government and the banks can not cometogeather to agree on some super shady practice for keeping the actual numbers from surfacing (read: pass new accounting "rules" to allow misrepresentation of the facts -- hey thats what S&L was all about) ... if they cant get that done, and scam the investors in to reinvesting their money in the bad debt explicitly ... then the government is going to have to guarantee and\or pay\buy the bad loans and that will cause massive inflation, AND the market will probably still be reeling.
It is NOT a good thing we have going here.
NOT AT ALL.
It seems like it IS about to "burst" ...
the game has been going so long, so much bad debt has been swept under the accounting rug with "rollover loans" and so much shit has been hidden from the light of day with "off balance sheet" investments that you add all that trash up and you have a falling pile of shit!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Do what you want. Some people jumped from buildings during black monday, others found a way to stay in and ride it back up. Look at historical trends. A pretty consistent, linear growth pattern with a an occasional correction. You seem bo be buying into the hype and paranoia that this correction is a collapse. Yesterday, in late day trading should have demonstrated that there are plenty of investors ready to jump back in and buy. If you sell your shares today, you will have no trouble finding buyers who will profit from your fear.
Wait for it...wait for it....This market will bust. Terrorism, wars, foreign ownership, the rise of China, Russia coming back, idiots in government, lack of college graduates compared to rising nations, a public that does not know how to stay out of debt, a government that can't balance a budget....I don't have much faith in anything, be it cash, stocks, or gold. When the shit hits the fan, I doubt gold is going to save us.
Wait for it...wait for it....This market will bust. Terrorism, wars, foreign ownership, the rise of China, Russia coming back, idiots in government, lack of college graduates compared to rising nations, a public that does not know how to stay out of debt, a government that can't balance a budget....I don't have much faith in anything, be it cash, stocks, or gold. When the shit hits the fan, I doubt gold is going to save us.
When the shit hits the fan your gold will be worth a shitload more than your stock or your cash.
The chinaman and the ruskie will take the shiny metal any day, but not your devalued currency or your tanked stock.
Why the fuck wouldn't you put faith in gold?
That makes no sense.
You understand, for all discussion purposes, gold functions in direct inverse correlation with paper currency value?
The farther down the tube the dollar goes, the higher up the ladder gold will climb.
you can take that to the bank!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
When the shit hits the fan your gold will be worth a shitload more than your stock or your cash.
The chinaman and the ruskie will take the shiny metal any day, but not your devalued currency or your tanked stock.
Why the fuck wouldn't you put faith in gold?
That makes no sense.
You understand, for all discussion purposes, gold functions in direct inverse correlation with paper currency value?
The farther down the tube the dollar goes, the higher up the ladder gold will climb.
you can take that to the bank!
I just think if the world is so screwed up that the stock market has crashed, cash is no good, and war is the rage, that people's worries won't be gold. I probably don't understand why gold is valued so much. Why would it become so valuable?
I just think if the world is so screwed up that the stock market has crashed, cash is no good, and war is the rage, that people's worries won't be gold. I probably don't understand why gold is valued so much. Why would it become so valuable?
driftin already explained why its so valuable. gold is a commodity that is bought and sold. currently many people want invest in it because the dollar is crap.
but you need to relax a bit. stock market hasnt crashed, cash is always good, war has a chance of being over in a 1 or 2 years.
driftin already explained why its so valuable. gold is a commodity that is bought and sold. currently many people want invest in it because the dollar is crap.
but you need to relax a bit. stock market hasnt crashed, cash is always good, war has a chance of being over in a 1 or 2 years.
I understand it is a commodity. But why is this particular commodity so valuable? Can the value of this commodity also deteriorate if the reason for its importance no longer is important? All I'm saying is when push comes to shove, a loaf of bread or water will sustain a person, but you can't eat gold. Would there be a time where gold don't mean crap? That is what I am getting at. I know it is a valuable commodity. I want to know WHY it is a valuable commodity. Because it is heavy and shiny? If gold is only for making shiny things, then I won't care about gold when the bottom falls out. Only unless there are other idiots out there that will still care about gold.
Edit: Who is to say we win a war with Iran, China, and Russia? I don't know that wars today between super powers can be won without extreme costs (i.e., nuclear weapons). Otherwise, wars will last for long periods. Hell, Iraq had no legitimate army whatsoever, and we can't finish this thing off. If we can't stop some terrorists and insurgents from Iran with out of date weapons, how are we going to stop what China, Russia, and Iran are gearing up for? WHEN SOMEONE DROPS THE NEXT NUKES, THE WORLD FLAT OUT CHANGES. IT WILL BE A NEW WORLD. WILL GOLD BE THE CURRENCY? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows.
I understand it is a commodity. But why is this particular commodity so valuable? Can the value of this commodity also deteriorate if the reason for its importance no longer is important? All I'm saying is when push comes to shove, a loaf of bread or water will sustain a person, but you can't eat gold. Would there be a time where gold don't mean crap? That is what I am getting at. I know it is a valuable commodity. I want to know WHY it is a valuable commodity. Because it is heavy and shiny? If gold is only for making shiny things, then I won't care about gold when the bottom falls out. Only unless there are other idiots out there that will still care about gold.
Edit: Who is to say we win a war with Iran, China, and Russia? I don't know that wars today between super powers can be won without extreme costs (i.e., nuclear weapons). Otherwise, wars will last for long periods.
since when are we going to russia or china? or even Iran?? and what does this have to do with the discussion?
If we can't stop some terrorists and insurgents from Iran with out of date weapons, how are we going to stop what China, Russia, and Iran are gearing up for? WHEN SOMEONE DROPS THE NEXT NUKES, THE WORLD FLAT OUT CHANGES. IT WILL BE A NEW WORLD. WILL GOLD BE THE CURRENCY? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows.
I had to read this a few times. what is with all the doomsdayers around here? no one is going to war with china or russia. Iran would be a remote possibility, but NUKES!!!@##@$%@#@!!!! would have no reason to be used. Iran doesnt have any remember?
I do agree however that the world will be a different place if a nuke is ever dropped. but will gold be the next currency because of it? I have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
(1) since when are we going to russia or china? or even Iran?? and what does this have to do with the discussion?
(2) took about 48 hours to get rid of the Iraqi army. its el queda we can defeat in Iraq
(3) I had to read this a few times. what is with all the doomsdayers around here? no one is going to war with china or russia. Iran would be a remote possibility, but NUKES!!!@##@$%@#@!!!! would have no reason to be used. Iran doesnt have any remember?
(4) I do agree however that the world will be a different place if a nuke is ever dropped. but will gold be the next currency because of it? I have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
I've added #'s to your items.
1. We will be invading Iran soon. I would bet on it. Russia is supporting Iran to hurt us. A large war (larger than Iraq) could drive down our economy and the value of our securities and the value of the dollar. Which is what we are talking about here right? Investing in gold so that we don't lose it all with our investments in cash and securities? I thought that was obvious, but cause and effect are lost on some.
2. That is why I said that Iraq did not have a legit army. I also said that it is terrorists (Al Qaeda) and insurgents (Iraqi's and Iranians) who we are fighting now. Did you read my post? So, when we are talking Iran and Russia, those wars would make the war in Iraq seem like a small skirmish. You are blind if you do not see Russia positioning itself. We are not friends. KGB is back.
3. Well, a war with Russia or China would last forever without nukes. We'll have to go to war with Iran to stop their production of nuclear weapons.
4. I am wondering if you are high with this comment. We are talking about the value of gold. Who is to say that gold will always keep its value? There are reasons that investments in stocks could decrease: recession, wars, huge disasters. So, nuclear war would change the world and there is a lot of unknown surrounding the financial outcome. So, this thread is saying we should invest in gold. So, I was saying after a nuclear war maybe gold would not keep its value and investment in it now would be futile. Why was this so hard for you to understand?
And speaking as a Republican who hates conspiracists, war with Iran is coming soon (as will the draft).
Comments
Did you cash out?
I would, but I'm lazy.
actually.
i checked my credit card balance AND its almost a WASH!
argh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
consumer debt.
yikes.
maybe now is a good time to take a tax loss and start from nil?
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Well, that is definitely a consideration. If you were getting out of the market just to get out, I remain convinced that would be the wrong move. But if you're using the proceeds to pay down expensive credit card debt, that may be a really good move. I don't know what your portfolio looks like, but say the market is just average this year and you see a 10% increase in value. If at the same time you're carrying a big credit card debt at 19% you're losing money. So you just might be better off paying that down and starting over. Plus, as you mentioned you'll realize a capital loss to use against your earnings which will be nice when tax time comes. Tough choices for sure.
Solid advice. In general, you have no business investing if you have consumer debt.
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
yeah.
i dunno though.
they teach you all about "leverage" in business classes,
and recommend your business be at least 50% "invested" in debt ...
i'm not about to try to rationalize consumer credit as "debt investment",
but one could argue that cashing out 20k in stock to pay for 10K of debt (i'd probably loose about 6 or 7k to taxes on cash out, like i said, i have an EXTREMELY low pennys-on-the-dollar cost basis for a lot of my stocks) ... is a poor move.
Even if that 20K is only getting me 500-1000 a year in capital appreciation and dividends, the 10k debt is only costing me $50 a month in interest (i run at 7.99% interest on my card) ...
I'm still running at -100 to +400 dollars a year on that ...
and if i sell i've just lost ALL potential upside on my stock and any income.
:(
whose really to say?
Jeff?
anyone?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
i've been saying that gold is the best investment for years now. i live in an area where gold can be found in almost every wash (dry stream) or where ever water flows and there's always a place to sell it. land is also a good investment. as long as the population grows; you'll never lose money on land.
here's my opinion:
as the sea level rises; people will have to relocate. most of the population lives near water. this is going to cause an economic crash. the indian islands are needing to evacuate as we speak and towns in alaska are currently being relocated. as the waters rise; sewage is mixed with the water making the area toxic. if you own land you'll be able to set your price as these people will need somewhere to go.
as for gold; it's easy to sell and hard to trace. old coins are nice but won't hold value in an economic collapse. they're only worth what someone is willing to pay for them. during hard times; you won't find someone to pay you say $100 for an old dime.
you're a visionary if you see what's coming. manufacturing will have to stop to be relocated crushing the market. those who live in low areas will have to leave their homes. let's face it; who's going to buy a house that's under water? same for businesses. a $2 million building in manhattan is worthless even if there's only an inch of water in it.
gold and land have always been the best investments.
The end of the world?
i THINK SO.
edit: oops... that's the FUTURES price of gold.
it's actually at 657 for a physical troy ounce of the shiny shit.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
The price of gold TODAY is 763!
It is up ANOTHER HUNDRED DOLLARS.
Betting it hits 800 by end of month.
IS ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS "SIV SCANDAL"?
THE END OF THE WORLD?
Friday was "Black Friday" :(
DIG THIS, WE'RE FUCKED:
Banks Are Screwed -- You Are Screwed
GREAT NEWS, HUH?
And like i said, the media is doing their fucking damnedest to keep this SIV "Scandal" \ Clusterfuck \ Economic Dive Bomb out of the news.
WHEN THAT STORY BREAKS,
THE MARKET IS GONNA TANK.
BIG TIME.
Ladies and gents.
I'd say it's time to seriously reappraise your "investment" strategy.
Unless you have some vision of soaring profits in the nearterm, it is probably time to think about getting the fuck out!
Seriously.
:(
If I opened it now would you not understand?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
I cant imagine the mass hysteria you would have been in, had you been older enough to remember that day.
this could certainly happen again. the US economy is probably headed for a recession in the next 12-16 months. but guess what, thats ok.
the unimaginable crash of 87 lead to the greatest bull run in the history of the stock market. markets fluctuate, play it how you see it. good luck
I watched an interview with Greenspan (see last two minutes, on him vs. bernake) where he blatantly states that YOU CANT LOWER INTEREST RATES WITHOUT PUTTING INFLATIONARY PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR ANYMORE ... that is an out and out admission that the dollar is treading water and gasping for air ... that when the next downturn comes, the fed will be all but powerless to pull the strings and keep the game a float ...
like you said, play it how you see it,
but you aren't even addressing this SIV scandal, and it is going to cost the industry and YOU and ME BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS ... i mean ... they won't even say how much, but it's gonna be like $500 billion or something HUGE!
The ramifications of such a financial collapse rightnow along with the inability of the fed to act "responsibly" by cutting rates -- do to the very REAL fear that such rate cutting would cause "INFLATIONARY PRESSURE" ... read post-war german inflationary disaster ...
that confluence of circumstances has me VERY WORRIED!
I hope you are right, and that it is just a "blip" or a mid-term "recession", but to me it looks like we are teetering very near the edge of an out-and-out DEPRESSION and possibly near-term ... dare i say it ... dollar collapse.
Also,
your argument contains the assumption that everything is peachy keen DESPITE a pending "black monday" type event. All because, unimaginable fortune came after.
Were you invested at that time? Did you just leave your money in and let it dwindle to nothing?
Seems from what I have read about history is that despite the lies they tell you about how everything is fine in a collapse, because it gets better later is ABSOLUTE RUBBISH. The only people who seem to make it out alive are the assholes who caused the collapse and get bailed out by the Fed, or they helped design the crash (like a Rockerfeller or a Morgan) and they profiteered on the crash by SELLING BEFORE THEY STARTED THE RUN, and then BOUGHT AFTER THE CRASH ... but NOT SITTING TIGHT ON THEIR INVESTMENTS THROUGH THE CRASH.
Is that what you are advocating?
Leaving your money in to get trampled in the sell off?
What the fuck sense does that make! ?! !
If I opened it now would you not understand?
http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2.08% 2.42% 2.78% 2.57% 2.69% 2.69% 2.36% 1.97% 2.76%
and their are huge advantages as well as disadvantages of a weak dollar. the world has been living off america spending money for the past 10-20 years. that is now reversing.
here you go again. :rolleyes: maybe its trillions maybe quadrillions!! run for the hills!!!
l well it shouldn't inflation is under control.
market was down almost 400 points yesterday on a varied of concerns, bad earnings, oil at $90 bucks a barrel, credit worries. yet technology was UP. just look at google for example..it was up over $5 bucks or 1.75% when the market was down 2.5%.
its going to be a stock pickers market for awhile. time to get back to basics. invest in companies with solid earnings, good growth.
your dooms day senario is a bit much. DEPRESSION!!!!!! you say? are we all going to be waiting in line for bread and water. relax.
no I said it was an unimaginable decline in one day. and everything wont be peachy after a stock market decline of anything even close to 1987. people thought the stock market was going to go to zero back then. all I'm saying is look what happen afterword........largest stock market boom in the history of the markets.
love your use of bold. you are the only one who knows anything about this right? I can hold my own, I do it for a living.
what history books are you reading?? of course things wont be fine immediately after a collapse. thats not what I'm saying.
here you can clearly see where the stock market went after the crash of 87
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19802000.html
yup, and george bush's cousin flew the planes in the WTC on sept 11 on direct orders form bush.
for me? yes. everyone has a different timeframe on when they want to use the money they invest.
do you live off you investments? do you need to make money from them to eat? pay mortgage? doubtful. being in your mid 20s, you can ride out any market collapse that happens in the next 10 years and still come out well ahead by the time you are ready to retire.
It must suck to live in fear of so many things. life's not so bad buddy.
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
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I respect your financial opinions.
I know you are in the industry.
That is why i explicitly solicity your opinion on occasion.
You are right, inflation is "under control" right now, but when the longstanding head of the fed says rate cuts can't again happen like they did in the post-911 era, that has me concerned.
Your proposition seems to be:
"There is very little upside right now, and the markets are in at least a slow downturn. The downside risk is increasing. If you leave your money in the market right now you ARE probably going to lose some money. But that shouldn't matter to you, because you probably don't NEED that money to LIVE right now."
All i am saying is
"If you have NOTHING to gain in the short OR medium turn ... NOTHING, i mean, what, maybe the dow hits 16000, doubtful, but either way you ain't going up more than 10% even but the downside could be HUGE ... it could ... and at the very least it is going to be noticable and SUSTAINED ... YOU CAN RECOGNIZE THAT NOW AND SELL ... you can AVOID TAKING AN UNNECESSARY LOSS ... in the face of bad news and the storm on the horizon which promises NOTHING GOOD, WHY WOULD YOU HOLD ON?"
THAT is what i'm getting at.
The bad outweighs the good, even if it iS NOT catastrophic, it looks like a shit storm, and if you could get out before dollars turn to pennies, why the hell wouldn't you?
Why wouldn't you ditch the stocks and take a CD or something?
You talk about markets recovering from crashes, thats great. Of course the people will continue to work and seek to live if they can ... and that will always drive wealth back up ... but the people who lost their money in those crashes ... THEY LOST THEIR MONEY ... it is cut and dry... there is a longstanding FALSE MYTH propogated by the industry that says if you just leave your money in the market, everything will be gravvy.
I dunno. I profess that plenty of people know first hand that is bullshit.
If you are caught with your pants down and your $50 a share stock becomes worth $00.78 a share, you HAVE NO CHOICE, yes you will ride it out and pray that 10 years from now it is back to at least $30 a share or something ... BUT THINK OF WHAT YOU COULD HAVE DONE WITH THAT CASH HAD YOU SOLD AT $45 or $40 or $37 ... but not waited for the bottom to fall out and be STUCK for years and years.
The people who made money in those crashes are, like i said, the people that had inside information, or were smart enough otherwise to get out ... and then when the bottom fell out they scooped up bargain stocks for pennies on the hundreds.
So again, if we know the market is going down, and NOT UP, why wouldn't we move our money to something that is going to MAKE money, like at LEAST a certificate of deposit, perhaps PHYSICAL GOLD or say rental property in depressed markets where you can buy cheaply but still rent and make profit?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Does that have no one who lived through the 80's concerned? That was HUGE, CATASTROPHIC AND PROLONGED.
When CLINTON got in to office, HE was still dealing with bail out funds for the S&Ls. 1.8 trillion is the overall estimate of what it cost the US citizen to bail out the S&Ls.
You want to see 2 Trillion look like a drop in the bucket, and imagine what this new "scandal" has the potential for?
It ain't pretty at all.
Basicaly it sounds like the whole, for every 1 dollar the bank gets in deposits, they loan out 10, but for that 1 dollar that is "on deposit", they actually "invest" .98 cents of it and keep only $.02 in the house to cover loans ... well i believe it is that $0.98 that is tangled up in this SIV fiasco ... they are off the balance sheet, and that is never good for starters ... but they are investments that are riddled with bad subprime debt, and the investors who stand to claim this money are now in line to cash out ... but there is NO CASH, ONLY BAD DEBT. LOTS AND LOTS OF BAD DEBT. $500 BILLION WORTH at least.
:(
And NOONE here will even comment on it.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
it might be wise to pull out of stocks for a year or 2 and come back in later. but I do not see a huge downturn. (similar to 87). the stock market would need to drop about 3500 points in terms of todays dow price. I dont see that happening.
just think of the possible good things that can happen in the next 12-18 months. bush will leave office, peace might happen in the middle east, price of oil could come back down (maybe 30+ dollars from current prices) manufacturing could increase due to weak dollar, housing market will eventually recover. bad loans and credits problems will correct themselves.
I would pull out of financial stocks and go with tech stocks right now. If you enjoy investing and stock market movements as much as I do, do some homework on select stocks and sectors. there is good money to be made. and dare I say it, watch CNBC...they have the best stock market propaganda on tv
this is also some great info regarding economic indicators....
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/07sepbro.html
Total Derivatives -- globally: (NOTE: these are a "Notional Value of Leverage")
Here are global statistical estimates from THE BANK OF INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, for the following dates:
June of 2007, the Notional Value of Leverage on Debts from the global Derivates Market was $400 TRILLION dollars, (from the Shepherd Investment Strategist newsletter).
By the first week of September, BIS estimates globally increased to $600 TRILLION, (statistics quoted in the Prudent Squirrel newsletter, Sept. 8, 07).
OOPS! According to the BIS, the ENTIRE WORLD GDP is ROUGHLY ONLY 50 TRILLION A Year. That is global estimated true market value. ??????
To put this into perspective, these notional leveraged amounts of derivative market $$$ are about 12 times the total amount of the entire globe's GDP!!!!!!
Here's a comparison between 1990 and 2007:
In 1990, the Derivatives Market was around $20 Trillion in size.
2007, it is estimated to exceed $600 Trillion!
Within a few months, (June to end of September, 2007), the BIS global estimate jumped from $400 Trillion up to $600 Trillion! How does that happen?
The DREADED "T" Word:
As In, TRILLION, as in $000000000000 and I notice the media doesn’t like to use it! (In regards to the SIV / CDO debacle)
Can anyone confirm/deny or explain the stats above? Answer the bolded question?
Assuming there wasn't a problem with the BIS estimates, how does that happen? HOw does anything valued in hundreds of trillions increase 50% in four months? Wouldn't the relationship between the global gdp and this enormous $600 trillion dollar figure point to a seriously overvalued market? And should that not lead to a massive downturn at some point in the near future? Is this SIV bailout delaying this and making it worse? questions questions....
Ok...I've mentioned a couple times that I don't know a whole lot about economics, so I might be a total bumbling fool to have never heard of the BIS...but I just read the wiki page on them. wow....go figure. An organization comprised of the international heads of 55 central banking agencies, with reputed nazi ties and those pesky "conspiracy theorists" criticizing them....
my guess is probably inflated home/property prices.
although these numbers are based on global estimates. that is one complex animal.
definitely interersting stuff.
Man i have no fucking idea, but that is scary and sketchy.
Perhaps it COULD be related to off balance sheet investments (like this SIV thing) that may not get reported (i don't know how this shit works, i don't think many or any people do, regarding bank finance reporting and international statistics regulation) to the international agencies unless they are written off.
In other words, it COULD be (no idea if it IS) that the 200billion is BAD debt that was off balance sheet and therefore hidden from statistics ... but once it was "realized" by the banks as write offs it became a statistic.
But man, i have no idea, and i highly doubt banks wrote off anywhere near that or we'd be hearing a LOT more about it in the news.
I CAN tell you the answer to your other question, "is the SIV bailout just delaying a serious downturn?" ... the answer is YES YES YES YES YES.
That is the point of the bailout.
If the government and the banks can not cometogeather to agree on some super shady practice for keeping the actual numbers from surfacing (read: pass new accounting "rules" to allow misrepresentation of the facts -- hey thats what S&L was all about) ... if they cant get that done, and scam the investors in to reinvesting their money in the bad debt explicitly ... then the government is going to have to guarantee and\or pay\buy the bad loans and that will cause massive inflation, AND the market will probably still be reeling.
It is NOT a good thing we have going here.
NOT AT ALL.
It seems like it IS about to "burst" ...
the game has been going so long, so much bad debt has been swept under the accounting rug with "rollover loans" and so much shit has been hidden from the light of day with "off balance sheet" investments that you add all that trash up and you have a falling pile of shit!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Wait for it...wait for it....This market will bust. Terrorism, wars, foreign ownership, the rise of China, Russia coming back, idiots in government, lack of college graduates compared to rising nations, a public that does not know how to stay out of debt, a government that can't balance a budget....I don't have much faith in anything, be it cash, stocks, or gold. When the shit hits the fan, I doubt gold is going to save us.
When the shit hits the fan your gold will be worth a shitload more than your stock or your cash.
The chinaman and the ruskie will take the shiny metal any day, but not your devalued currency or your tanked stock.
Why the fuck wouldn't you put faith in gold?
That makes no sense.
You understand, for all discussion purposes, gold functions in direct inverse correlation with paper currency value?
The farther down the tube the dollar goes, the higher up the ladder gold will climb.
you can take that to the bank!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
My guns will be worth more than your gold, because with my guns I can take your gold.
For all of the doomsdayers, you really should be investing in guns & ammo before you think about precious metals.
I just think if the world is so screwed up that the stock market has crashed, cash is no good, and war is the rage, that people's worries won't be gold. I probably don't understand why gold is valued so much. Why would it become so valuable?
driftin already explained why its so valuable. gold is a commodity that is bought and sold. currently many people want invest in it because the dollar is crap.
but you need to relax a bit. stock market hasnt crashed, cash is always good, war has a chance of being over in a 1 or 2 years.
to Bush's ears. I hope to see that day soon too.
I understand it is a commodity. But why is this particular commodity so valuable? Can the value of this commodity also deteriorate if the reason for its importance no longer is important? All I'm saying is when push comes to shove, a loaf of bread or water will sustain a person, but you can't eat gold. Would there be a time where gold don't mean crap? That is what I am getting at. I know it is a valuable commodity. I want to know WHY it is a valuable commodity. Because it is heavy and shiny? If gold is only for making shiny things, then I won't care about gold when the bottom falls out. Only unless there are other idiots out there that will still care about gold.
Edit: Who is to say we win a war with Iran, China, and Russia? I don't know that wars today between super powers can be won without extreme costs (i.e., nuclear weapons). Otherwise, wars will last for long periods. Hell, Iraq had no legitimate army whatsoever, and we can't finish this thing off. If we can't stop some terrorists and insurgents from Iran with out of date weapons, how are we going to stop what China, Russia, and Iran are gearing up for? WHEN SOMEONE DROPS THE NEXT NUKES, THE WORLD FLAT OUT CHANGES. IT WILL BE A NEW WORLD. WILL GOLD BE THE CURRENCY? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows.
he wont be here in 1 to 2 years. but yea, I hope he hears it too
http://www.galmarley.com/
since when are we going to russia or china? or even Iran?? and what does this have to do with the discussion?
took about 48 hours to get rid of the Iraqi army. its el queda we can defeat in Iraq
I had to read this a few times. what is with all the doomsdayers around here? no one is going to war with china or russia. Iran would be a remote possibility, but NUKES!!!@##@$%@#@!!!! would have no reason to be used. Iran doesnt have any remember?
I do agree however that the world will be a different place if a nuke is ever dropped. but will gold be the next currency because of it? I have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
I've added #'s to your items.
1. We will be invading Iran soon. I would bet on it. Russia is supporting Iran to hurt us. A large war (larger than Iraq) could drive down our economy and the value of our securities and the value of the dollar. Which is what we are talking about here right? Investing in gold so that we don't lose it all with our investments in cash and securities? I thought that was obvious, but cause and effect are lost on some.
2. That is why I said that Iraq did not have a legit army. I also said that it is terrorists (Al Qaeda) and insurgents (Iraqi's and Iranians) who we are fighting now. Did you read my post? So, when we are talking Iran and Russia, those wars would make the war in Iraq seem like a small skirmish. You are blind if you do not see Russia positioning itself. We are not friends. KGB is back.
3. Well, a war with Russia or China would last forever without nukes. We'll have to go to war with Iran to stop their production of nuclear weapons.
4. I am wondering if you are high with this comment. We are talking about the value of gold. Who is to say that gold will always keep its value? There are reasons that investments in stocks could decrease: recession, wars, huge disasters. So, nuclear war would change the world and there is a lot of unknown surrounding the financial outcome. So, this thread is saying we should invest in gold. So, I was saying after a nuclear war maybe gold would not keep its value and investment in it now would be futile. Why was this so hard for you to understand?
And speaking as a Republican who hates conspiracists, war with Iran is coming soon (as will the draft).